P3 Health swings to positive EBITDA, raises 2026 outlook on flat medical trend

 

• Q1 adjusted EBITDA $26M vs -$22M YoY, exceeding internal expectations and marking inflection.
• Revenue $386M (+3% YoY) despite at-risk membership falling to 106k from 118k.
• Improved contract economics drove ~15% YoY MA per-member funding and 63% delegated membership.
• Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $20–60M (midpoint $40M).
• Medical margin $74M; adjusted MLR 85.2% with flat MA medical cost trend.
• Clinical programs: Tier 1 share 62% (from 56%), Stars ahead, member visits +5% vs plan.
• Problem: growth constrained near term after pruning unprofitable contracts and still-limited delegation in one major market.
• Balance sheet: $25M cash; ~$250M debt converted to preferred plus $30M new preferred issued.
• Management tone confident, stressing structural, durable drivers and constructive Medicare Advantage macro backdrop.
• Q&A centered on utilization mix, sustainability of favorable prior-year development, and pathway to broader delegation.
• Main concern: sustainability of unusually low medical cost trend and growth with a smaller membership base.
• Strong quarter, driven by structurally improved payer contracts and disciplined medical cost management.

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