When will Hormuz shipping normalize? See what traders are predicting

 Wall Street extended gains Friday afternoon as easing tensions in the Middle East improved investor sentiment, though uncertainty around key shipping routes remained.

Iranian authorities announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial traffic for the duration of the Lebanon ceasefire, a move aimed at stabilizing global trade flows. 

Despite the announcement, President Donald Trump said U.S. naval restrictions on Iranian ports will remain in place, creating a mixed outlook for maritime activity in the region. The conflicting signals have left traders focused on how quickly shipping conditions can normalize.

Prediction market participants are increasingly weighing the timeline for a full recovery in transit through the critical waterway, reflecting cautious optimism alongside lingering geopolitical risk. See below what traders on prediction market Kalshi are saying: 

• Before May 1, 2026 — 46% chance.
• Before May 15, 2026 — 64% chance.
• Before Jun 1, 2026 — 78% chance.
• Before Jul 1, 2026 — 84% chance. 
• Before Aug 1, 2026 — 88% chance.
• Before Sep 1, 2026 — 86% chance.
• Before Oct 1, 2026 — 91% chance.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — 93.9% chance. 
• Before Apr 1, 2027 — 95% chance. 
• Before Jul 1, 2027 — 97% chance. 

Oil ETFs: (USO), (UCO), (DBO), (OILK), and (USL). 

Natural Gas ETFs: (UNG), (BOIL), and (UNL). 

Market Tracking ETFs: (DIA), (DDM), (DOG), (DXD), (SDOW), (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), (SPXU), (QQQ), (QQQM), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/when-will-hormuz-shipping-normalize-see-what-traders-are-predicting/ar-AA218HhX

Iran Hits 'Baseless' Trump Claim On Handing Over Uranium, As He Declares Hormuz 'Never Again' Closed

 

Summary

• Trump Praises Iran for Fully Reopening Hormuz Chokepoint; Crude Tanks, Yields Dump, Equity Futs Up; Follows by claiming Iran will 'never again' close it; FARS soon after contradicts in fresh threat.

• Iran's Aragchi says "Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open". However, Iranian official tells FARS: "If the maritime blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, & the Strait of Hormuz transit route will be closed."

• US mulls cash-for-uranium deal as 'three-page' MOU peace plan takes shape. Trump claims US will get the 'nuclear dust' - Iran official denies.

• Peace talks reportedly on Sunday in Islamabad. Trump: "Most of the main points are finalized. It’ll go pretty quickly."

Odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of the ceasefire are soaring above 50% by the end of the month...

Huge Denial by Iran

Iranian source in conversation with Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: Trump's claim about the delivery of Iran's enriched uranium is baseless. Per the report:

• Iranian source in conversation with Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: Only civilian ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and that too through routes specified by Iran. The announcement of the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the current negotiations with Washington.
• We waited a few hours to make sure that a ceasefire had been established in Lebanon; then we temporarily opened the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement of the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire in Lebanon are part of the agreement.
• Negotiations on the issues of dispute with the United States are still ongoing, but due to Washington's excessive demands, there is no clear perspective.
• Washington's demands in the negotiations remain illogical and unreasonable. The US President's claim about taking Iran's enriched uranium is baseless

The 'excessive demands' complaint is exactly the same Iranian position prior to Friday, when Trump made a series of massive claims and declarations on some kind of agreed-to and imminent final peace deal.

And more contradiction in terms of Trump's big claims concerning a major Iran deal in the works, wherein he's insisted money won't be exchanged for the US obtaining the enriched uranium and 'nuclear dust':

The U.S. has told Tehran it would give Iran access to $20 billion if it hands over its stockpile of fissile material, officials familiar with the negotiations say. The proposal is one of the ideas on the table for resolving one of the big sticking points in talks: how to remove Iran’s access to 972 pounds of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium.

Axios reported the U.S. proposal earlier Friday. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the offer would include all of Iran’s fissile-material stockpile, which includes medium- and low-enriched uranium. Two of the officials said Iran has neither dismissed nor accepted the proposal at this point.

More Big Trump Words on Alleged Iran Deal in Works

A grand deal in the works as Trump says a second round of direct talks will likely be held this weekend? It's too hard to say what's agreed upon from the Iranian side at this point, as Trump continues issuing rapid-fire Friday statements:

Talks over a lasting agreement will “probably” be held this weekend, the president said. 
“Most of the main points are finalized. It’ll go pretty quickly,” Trump said.

The president denied that the moratorium on Iran’s nuclear program would expire after 20 years. Asked if the program will completely halt, Trump responded "No years, unlimited."

Really?...

TRUMP TELLS REUTERS WILL BRING IRAN'S URANIUM TO US

Iran Threatens to Again Close Strait: FARS

And soon on the heels of what appears to be a lot of Trump projection:

IRAN TO CLOSE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IF US BLOCKADE PERSISTS: FARS

In essence, despite the flurry of victory lap-style messages from Trump on Truth Social Friday, the ground reality remains that Iran will do what it has been doing if the US does what it has been doing - but the question will be whether each side keeps up the charade for the sake of the war not restarting, or whether this is again headed toward inevitable clash.

Trump claims Iran Agrees to 'Never Close' Strait Again

The President is doing a rapid-fire Truth Social victory tour of sorts, but seems to have entered pure projection and wishful thinking territory, now claiming Tehran has "agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again" and that the vital oil transit waterway "will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!

Like with some other fresh assertions this morning, there's no confirmation from the Iranians, who also say the strait is 'open' - but while asserting its own terms and preconditions for vessel passage.

Still, this flurry of headlines generated in large part by Trump's 'optimistic' (to say the least) series of messages, has pushed oil significantly lower. WTI pushes lower to 79 Friday late morning... WTI has retraced 70% of the peak rise from the start of the war.

NATO 'Paper Tiger' can 'Stay Away': Trump

The President continues unleashing a series of Iran-related statements on Truth Social, in his latest once again dumping on NATO, claiming that the alliance has belatedly offered the US help in its Hormuz Strait mission, but Trump in all caps said he told them to 'stay away' unless 'they just want to load up their ships with oil.' 

He then repeated a familiar theme of his, blasting NATO as a 'Paper Tiger' for its allege weakness and lack of help with US Iran and Hormuz operations. However, from NATO and Europe's perspective, the strategic vision and scope of the mission has been constantly evolving, leaving allies confused to say the least - so this doesn't provide them with enough incentive or confidence to assist in intervening.

And he quickly followed with this highly dubious claim:

And more, now we're something like 10 or 11 Truth Social statements in and it's still just morning:

Trump Again Touts US Will Seize 'Nuclear Dust'

President Trump keeps touting that the US will seize Iran's "nuclear dust" - which he says is what has resulted from the massive bombing campaign of Iranian nuclear sites as part of Operation Epic Fury. 

But the US will get this even as "No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form" - in the latest Friday Truth Social post. However, none of this has been acknowledged by Iran in terms some kind of grand bargain with the US. The below appears merely another fresh threat from Trump, in order to perhaps create leverage and fear amid potential renewed talks.

Trump Responds 

Minutes after Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open", President Trump responded on Truth Social:

"IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!"

Of course, we joke, but really...

About 20 minutes after Trump's first Truth Social post, the president fired off another, this time declaring that the "naval blockade will remain in full force." 

Trump said: 

The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business, with full passage restored.

However, the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran only until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.

This process should move very quickly, as most of the points have already been negotiated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Market impact so far:

• WTI dropped 9% to $86/bbl after Iran announced the Hormuz chokepoint opening during the ceasefire

• Brent retreated to $91 a barrel

• The dollar plunged while bonds surged, with 10-year yields falling to 4.23%

• European benchmark NatGas prices also fell sharply following the announcement

• Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased all gains since the Iran war began

• US main equity futures are green

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu comments on "OIS markets reprice" as Hormuz reopens:

BoE and ECB pricing reacted sharply to US President Trump saying that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open.

The GBP OIS market has now removed 11bp of hikes removed for the year, now pricing 27.5bp cumulatively.

Similarly, the 10bp of hikes have been removed for the ECB this year, now pricing 44.4bp cumulatively. For the FOMC, OIS markets reprice cumulative cuts to 15bp, down 5bp.

This chart shows market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate changes in 2026.

Iran Opens Hormuz

In a rather shocking turn of events, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is open:

"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran."

Oil crashed even lower on the report...

Are we getting close to 'Mission Accomplished'?

US Mulls $20BN Cash-For-Uranium Deal

According to two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks, Axios' Barak Ravid reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.

The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a "voluntary" moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.

The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.

As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground.

The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.

Perhaps the most notable element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

Axios adds that a top priority for the Trump admin is ensuring Iran can't access the stockpile of nearly 2,000kg of enriched uranium buried in its underground nuclear facilities, in particular the 450kg enriched to 60% purity.

The Iranians, meanwhile, need money.

The parties are negotiating over what will happen to the stockpile and how much of Iran's assets will be unfrozen. They are also discussing the terms on which Iran could use that money.

WTI Crude front-month oil futures prices are tumbling on the report, down over 11% - back near post-ceasefire lows...

President Trump said Thursday that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would likely meet this weekend for a second round of talks to try to seal the deal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/three-page-plan-end-war-oil-tumbles-us-reportedly-mulls-20bn-cash-nukes-deal

Lilly CEO sees weight-loss drugs reaching about half of potential users at peak

 Weight-loss drugs may eventually reach only about 50% of the overweight and obese people who could benefit from them due to complexities of healthcare systems ‌and financial constraints, Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks said at a conference on Friday.

Lilly and rival ‌Novo Nordisk have been competing for share in the global market for wildly popular GLP-1 injectable and oral weight-loss drugs, which analysts ​see topping $100 billion per year in the next decade.

Today, just 1 in 10 people who are overweight or obese are using GLP-1s, Ricks said at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington.

"It's never going to be a hundred," he said. "For institutional reasons in healthcare and some other complexities in managing health, it's never going to be that high."

Ricks ‌pointed to low-cost statins, the most ⁠commonly prescribed cholesterol medicines, as a comparable example. "Between 40 and 50% of people who should be on them, are on them. I think of that as maybe a ceiling," ⁠he said.

Lilly's just-launched weight-loss pill Foundayo was prescribed 1,390 times in the U.S. in its first week of sales, according to analysts who cited IQVIA data.

The pill will compete with Novo's oral Wegovy, which entered the U.S. market in ​January and ​had 3,071 U.S. prescriptions in the first four days ​after its launch.

PRODUCTION RAMP 'EXPENSIVE AND SLOW'

Ricks said ramping ‌up production to meet even a 50% market cap would take time. He figured 50% of weight-loss drug candidates globally to be about 500 million people.

"Today we're treating 21 or 22 million," the CEO said. "So, can we basically 20-fold that production? Not anytime soon."

"It will take a long time to do that. There is no real efficiency gain left, we've just got to put in more units of capacity. And we will do ‌that, but that capex rollout is expensive and slow," he said.

Foundayo ​offers convenience to consumers who may not want to take an ​injectable GLP-1, Ricks said.

Obesity medicine specialists told ​Reuters that Americans were interested in GLP-1 pills as a lower-cost, needle-free alternative to injectables ‌like Lilly's Zepbound.

Price remains a key consideration ​for many potential GLP-1 patients, ​as the drugs are still cost prohibitive to most people, the doctors said.

The self-pay price for the lowest dose of GLP-1 pills and injectables ranges from $149 to $349 per month.

"The history has been, it's really ​been for people with means and ‌not for people without means," Ricks acknowledged, "and I think we need to change that.

"I think ​it's a moral imperative, but also it's a cost imperative. Obesity flows with poverty," Ricks said.

https://www.aol.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/lilly-ceo-sees-weight-loss-160248887.html

Facing obesity stats, Louisiana lawmakers mull weight-loss drug coverage for Medicaid recipients

 The Senate Health and Welfare Committee debated a bill that would require Medicaid to cover FDA-approved weight-loss medications for its recipients.

Roughly 145,000 Medicaid adults in the state would qualify for coverage of the weight-loss medicines, according to the Louisiana Department of Health Medicaid Director Seth Gold.

Senate Bill 433, proposed by Sen. Gerald Boudreaux, D-Lafayette, was amended Wednesday and will be held to be revisited by the full committee.

Louisiana has a serious obesity problem, with approximately 40% of adults having a body mass index of 30 or higher, according to America’s Health Rankings from the United Health Foundation.

The state ranks third in the country in adult obesity and second in the country in childhood obesity.

LDH estimates that the total spending to cover these medications would be around $189 million for the first half of the fiscal year, a span covering the bill’s possible implementation on Jan. 1, 2027, through the next six months. The price tag for the following full fiscal year was estimated to be $296 million.

Federal spending would defray a huge portion of these estimated expenses, Gold said.

They estimate that about $35 million from the state general fund and $153 million in federal spending would cover the first fiscal year. For the second fiscal year, they estimate about $55 million from the state general fund and $240 million in federal spending would cover it.

The addition of rebates would also help to bring these numbers down, Gold adds. However, even with the aid, the state would still face a significant cost.

While it may be costly, some members agreed the issue should not be ignored.

“We have to find a way to pay for this,” said Sen. Jay Luneau, D-Alexandria. “I believe (this) is going to make a huge change over the state of Louisiana for the good. … We have to get serious about this if we’re going to make change.”

Luneau said using Medicaid to help recipients pay for weight-loss medication could help cut down cardiovascular issues such as strokes and heart attacks. He also said this could help reduce the occurrence of diabetes, which affects about 569,000 adults in Louisiana, according to the American Diabetes Association.

Louisiana currently pays about $2.1 billion a year for Medicaid to treat adults and children with obesity, according to Dr. Katie Queen, a pediatrician who specializes in obesity and weight-management nutrition.

The same report Queen used from Louisiana Medicaid indicated it would have cost the state $74 million to cover these weight-loss medications in 2023. Since then, Queen has heard that these costs have come down even more.

“Now we’re talking about less than $74 million, maybe $55 million, maybe even down to $11 million,” Queen said. “When you compare that to the cost of other drugs, that is not that much.”

Queen described the bill as an investment, implying that covering the costs of weight-loss medications would bring down the money spent to treat weight-related health issues because more individuals would become healthier.

The bill would cut overall costs by limiting the eligibility age to 18. However, Queen said she was concerned about excluding coverage for young people between 12 and 17 because obesity plagues this age group as much as it does for adults.

“These medications are FDA-approved for ages 12 and up, and they will go younger,” Queen said, referring to studies on the safety and effectiveness of the weight-loss drug for younger children.

https://www.aol.com/news/faced-obesity-stats-louisiana-lawmakers-144917408.html