Summary
Trump Praises Iran for Fully Reopening Hormuz Chokepoint; Crude Tanks, Yields Dump, Equity Futs Up; Follows by claiming Iran will 'never again' close it; FARS soon after contradicts in fresh threat.
Iran's Aragchi says "Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open". However, Iranian official tells FARS: "If the maritime blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, & the Strait of Hormuz transit route will be closed."
US mulls cash-for-uranium deal as 'three-page' MOU peace plan takes shape. Trump claims US will get the 'nuclear dust' - Iran official denies.
Peace talks reportedly on Sunday in Islamabad. Trump: "Most of the main points are finalized. It’ll go pretty quickly."
Odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of the ceasefire are soaring above 50% by the end of the month...
Huge Denial by Iran
Iranian source in conversation with Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: Trump's claim about the delivery of Iran's enriched uranium is baseless. Per the report:
- Iranian source in conversation with Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: Only civilian ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and that too through routes specified by Iran. The announcement of the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the current negotiations with Washington.
- We waited a few hours to make sure that a ceasefire had been established in Lebanon; then we temporarily opened the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement of the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire in Lebanon are part of the agreement.
- Negotiations on the issues of dispute with the United States are still ongoing, but due to Washington's excessive demands, there is no clear perspective.
- Washington's demands in the negotiations remain illogical and unreasonable. The US President's claim about taking Iran's enriched uranium is baseless
The 'excessive demands' complaint is exactly the same Iranian position prior to Friday, when Trump made a series of massive claims and declarations on some kind of agreed-to and imminent final peace deal.
And more contradiction in terms of Trump's big claims concerning a major Iran deal in the works, wherein he's insisted money won't be exchanged for the US obtaining the enriched uranium and 'nuclear dust':
The U.S. has told Tehran it would give Iran access to $20 billion if it hands over its stockpile of fissile material, officials familiar with the negotiations say. The proposal is one of the ideas on the table for resolving one of the big sticking points in talks: how to remove Iran’s access to 972 pounds of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium.
Axios reported the U.S. proposal earlier Friday. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the offer would include all of Iran’s fissile-material stockpile, which includes medium- and low-enriched uranium. Two of the officials said Iran has neither dismissed nor accepted the proposal at this point.
More Big Trump Words on Alleged Iran Deal in Works
A grand deal in the works as Trump says a second round of direct talks will likely be held this weekend? It's too hard to say what's agreed upon from the Iranian side at this point, as Trump continues issuing rapid-fire Friday statements:
Talks over a lasting agreement will “probably” be held this weekend, the president said.
“Most of the main points are finalized. It’ll go pretty quickly,” Trump said.The president denied that the moratorium on Iran’s nuclear program would expire after 20 years. Asked if the program will completely halt, Trump responded "No years, unlimited."
Really?...
TRUMP TELLS REUTERS WILL BRING IRAN'S URANIUM TO US
Iran Threatens to Again Close Strait: FARS
And soon on the heels of what appears to be a lot of Trump projection:
IRAN TO CLOSE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IF US BLOCKADE PERSISTS: FARS
In essence, despite the flurry of victory lap-style messages from Trump on Truth Social Friday, the ground reality remains that Iran will do what it has been doing if the US does what it has been doing - but the question will be whether each side keeps up the charade for the sake of the war not restarting, or whether this is again headed toward inevitable clash.
Trump claims Iran Agrees to 'Never Close' Strait Again
The President is doing a rapid-fire Truth Social victory tour of sorts, but seems to have entered pure projection and wishful thinking territory, now claiming Tehran has "agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again" and that the vital oil transit waterway "will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!
Like with some other fresh assertions this morning, there's no confirmation from the Iranians, who also say the strait is 'open' - but while asserting its own terms and preconditions for vessel passage.
Still, this flurry of headlines generated in large part by Trump's 'optimistic' (to say the least) series of messages, has pushed oil significantly lower. WTI pushes lower to 79 Friday late morning... WTI has retraced 70% of the peak rise from the start of the war.
NATO 'Paper Tiger' can 'Stay Away': Trump
The President continues unleashing a series of Iran-related statements on Truth Social, in his latest once again dumping on NATO, claiming that the alliance has belatedly offered the US help in its Hormuz Strait mission, but Trump in all caps said he told them to 'stay away' unless 'they just want to load up their ships with oil.'
He then repeated a familiar theme of his, blasting NATO as a 'Paper Tiger' for its allege weakness and lack of help with US Iran and Hormuz operations. However, from NATO and Europe's perspective, the strategic vision and scope of the mission has been constantly evolving, leaving allies confused to say the least - so this doesn't provide them with enough incentive or confidence to assist in intervening.
And he quickly followed with this highly dubious claim:
And more, now we're something like 10 or 11 Truth Social statements in and it's still just morning:
Trump Again Touts US Will Seize 'Nuclear Dust'
President Trump keeps touting that the US will seize Iran's "nuclear dust" - which he says is what has resulted from the massive bombing campaign of Iranian nuclear sites as part of Operation Epic Fury.
But the US will get this even as "No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form" - in the latest Friday Truth Social post. However, none of this has been acknowledged by Iran in terms some kind of grand bargain with the US. The below appears merely another fresh threat from Trump, in order to perhaps create leverage and fear amid potential renewed talks.
Trump Responds
Minutes after Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open", President Trump responded on Truth Social:
"IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!"
Of course, we joke, but really...
About 20 minutes after Trump's first Truth Social post, the president fired off another, this time declaring that the "naval blockade will remain in full force."
Trump said:
The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business, with full passage restored.
However, the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran only until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.
This process should move very quickly, as most of the points have already been negotiated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Market impact so far:
WTI dropped 9% to $86/bbl after Iran announced the Hormuz chokepoint opening during the ceasefire
Brent retreated to $91 a barrel
The dollar plunged while bonds surged, with 10-year yields falling to 4.23%
European benchmark NatGas prices also fell sharply following the announcement
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased all gains since the Iran war began
US main equity futures are green
UBS analyst Nana Antiedu comments on "OIS markets reprice" as Hormuz reopens:
BoE and ECB pricing reacted sharply to US President Trump saying that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open.
The GBP OIS market has now removed 11bp of hikes removed for the year, now pricing 27.5bp cumulatively.
Similarly, the 10bp of hikes have been removed for the ECB this year, now pricing 44.4bp cumulatively. For the FOMC, OIS markets reprice cumulative cuts to 15bp, down 5bp.
This chart shows market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate changes in 2026.
Iran Opens Hormuz
In a rather shocking turn of events, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is open:
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran."
Oil crashed even lower on the report...
Are we getting close to 'Mission Accomplished'?
US Mulls $20BN Cash-For-Uranium Deal
According to two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks, Axios' Barak Ravid reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.
The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a "voluntary" moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.
The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.
As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground.
The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.
Perhaps the most notable element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.
Axios adds that a top priority for the Trump admin is ensuring Iran can't access the stockpile of nearly 2,000kg of enriched uranium buried in its underground nuclear facilities, in particular the 450kg enriched to 60% purity.
The Iranians, meanwhile, need money.
The parties are negotiating over what will happen to the stockpile and how much of Iran's assets will be unfrozen. They are also discussing the terms on which Iran could use that money.
WTI Crude front-month oil futures prices are tumbling on the report, down over 11% - back near post-ceasefire lows...
President Trump said Thursday that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would likely meet this weekend for a second round of talks to try to seal the deal.
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