Wall Street extended gains Friday afternoon as easing tensions in the Middle East improved investor sentiment, though uncertainty around key shipping routes remained.
Iranian authorities announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial traffic for the duration of the Lebanon ceasefire, a move aimed at stabilizing global trade flows.
Despite the announcement, President Donald Trump said U.S. naval restrictions on Iranian ports will remain in place, creating a mixed outlook for maritime activity in the region. The conflicting signals have left traders focused on how quickly shipping conditions can normalize.
Prediction market participants are increasingly weighing the timeline for a full recovery in transit through the critical waterway, reflecting cautious optimism alongside lingering geopolitical risk. See below what traders on prediction market Kalshi are saying:
- Before May 1, 2026 — 46% chance.
- Before May 15, 2026 — 64% chance.
- Before Jun 1, 2026 — 78% chance.
- Before Jul 1, 2026 — 84% chance.
- Before Aug 1, 2026 — 88% chance.
- Before Sep 1, 2026 — 86% chance.
- Before Oct 1, 2026 — 91% chance.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — 93.9% chance.
- Before Apr 1, 2027 — 95% chance.
- Before Jul 1, 2027 — 97% chance.
Oil ETFs: (USO), (UCO), (DBO), (OILK), and (USL).
Natural Gas ETFs: (UNG), (BOIL), and (UNL).
Market Tracking ETFs: (DIA), (DDM), (DOG), (DXD), (SDOW), (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), (SPXU), (QQQ), (QQQM), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ).
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