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Friday, April 24, 2026

Inflation spikes, basic goods slip out of reach for Iranians, citizens say

 Food prices surged and basic goods slipped out of reach across Iran, citizens told Iran International in recent days, describing shortages and daily price jumps following a ceasefire that has coincided with worsening economic conditions.

“Prices here have increased tenfold and rice and cooking oil are hard to find,” one resident wrote from Zahedan in southeastern Iran, pointing to worsening access to staple goods.

Other citizens described the rapid erosion of purchasing power. “We go to sleep and wake up to everything being twice as expensive,” one message said, reflecting widespread concern over accelerating inflation.

Food costs climb, access narrows

Messages from multiple cities highlighted steep increases in the cost of everyday items. Citizens said even the most basic foods were becoming unaffordable, with eggs, rice and cooking oil among the hardest hit.

“Eggs have become so expensive they are being removed from our tables,” one citizen wrote, describing the shrinking range of affordable protein options.

Shoppers queue at a butcher’s counter in Iran as food costs continue to climb.

Restaurant prices were also cited as an indicator of inflation. Citizens said a single serving of kebab now costs between 5,000,000 and 6,000,000 rials (about $3.10 to $3.75), while a plate of chicken with rice ranges from 3,000,000 to 4,000,000 rials (about $1.90 to $2.50). Soft drinks were reported to exceed 1,000,000 rials (about $0.60).

Based on an exchange rate of around 1,600,000 rials per dollar, the new minimum monthly wage of 162,550,000 rials is equivalent to roughly $104. This comes as annual inflation had already exceeded 70 percent before the start war on February 28, reaching its highest level since World War II.

man sells fruit at the Grand Bazaar, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 18, 2026.

As of late 2025/early 2026, average Iranian incomes have contracted to roughly $200 per month.

Shortages compounded the problem. Messages described difficulty finding chicken in distribution centers and limits on purchasing cooking oil in shops. Others pointed to disruptions in supply chains linked to industrial slowdowns and rising production costs.

Economic journalist Arash Azarmi said the surge in food prices was hitting lower-income households hardest. “Eggs priced at 200,000 rials ($0.12) each are shocking. This is a basic food item, especially for lower-income households, and it is effectively being pushed out of their consumption basket,” Azarmi said.

Official data, he added, already showed food inflation exceeding 112 percent, with some categories such as cooking oil rising by more than 200 percent.

Iran’s monthly minimum wage for workers is set at one of the lowest levels compared to many countries in the region. Among Oman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, Pakistan and Lebanon, the lowest minimum wage belongs to Pakistan, where workers earn at least the equivalent of $133. This figure is about $201 in Lebanon, around $275 in Qatar, about $345 in Iraq, and $625 and $585 in Turkey and Oman, respectively.

A woman shops for groceries in a store in Iran as prices continue to rise.

Pressure spreads beyond food

Beyond rising prices, citizens said financial obligations continued to tighten during and after the conflict period, adding to the strain on households and businesses.

A billboard about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, April 22, 2026.

“During the war there was no tax relief, insurance was taken in full from the private sector, and all loans faced late penalties despite earlier promises,” one message said, describing continued pressure on businesses.

Another citizen pointed to mounting banking enforcement and legal follow-up tied to unpaid debts. “All checks were bounced, accounts were closed and legal action started. Loan installments were either collected with interest or deducted from guarantors,” the message read.

Business owners described a cycle of rising costs and falling demand. A clothing seller said prices for goods were increasing by around 35 percent each week, while customers’ ability to pay continued to decline.

A shopkeeper stands in his clothing store at the Grand Bazaar, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 18, 2026.

Jobs scarce, costs rising

Citizens also pointed to a lack of job opportunities and growing difficulty in covering basic living expenses, including rent and utilities.

“There is no work and our savings are gone,” one citizen said, describing limited options for supplementing income.

Others reported rising bills even as businesses slowed or shut down. “We cannot pay rent, we cannot work,” another citizen wrote, pointing to disruptions affecting daily commerce.

Small business owners said they were increasingly operating at a loss. One restaurant operator said higher meat prices and reduced customer demand were pushing the business toward closure. “If this continues, we will shut down and pay rent from our own pockets,” the message read.

Experts warn of accelerating inflation

Economist Mohammad Machinechian said the pace of price increases had reached a point where monthly inflation was more relevant than annual figures.

“I’m no longer talking about annual inflation, but monthly inflation, and that is the reality we’re dealing with,” Machinechian said. “Even in the best-case scenario, inflation could average at least 5 percent a month, meaning prices rise around 80 percent over a year.”

Machinechian added that in a prolonged stalemate scenario, prices could triple over the year, while renewed conflict could push monthly inflation above 20 percent, leading to annual increases approaching 500 percent.

File photo of people shopping for eggs and bread at a street market in Iran amid rising food prices.

Azarmi described the situation as a “modern famine,” where goods remain available but are increasingly unaffordable for many households.

The accounts from citizens across the country depict an economy where rapid price increases, supply constraints and falling incomes are converging, leaving many struggling to secure even the most basic necessities.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604233673

Rapid deterioration of Iran-UAE ties threatens a critical trade lifeline

 Iran-UAE ties have unraveled over the past two months, beginning with Iranian airstrikes on Emirati targets during the US-led war and escalating into a crisis that now threatens one of Tehran’s most vital trade and financial channels.

During the conflict, Iran struck civilian buildings, oil facilities, and sensitive infrastructure, including a data center linked to Oracle. In response, the UAE recalled its ambassador from Tehran, signaling a swift escalation in diplomatic tensions.

The diplomatic fallout deepened further this week when UAE state security authorities said they had arrested members of what they described as a “terrorist group linked to Iran’s ruling system” in Sharjah. The suspects were accused of planning attacks, undermining national security, and facilitating illicit financial transfers.

At the same time, Tehran has formally demanded compensation from several regional states, including the UAE, for allowing their airspace and bases to be used by the United States and Israel in strikes against Iran.

These developments have intensified a crisis that threatens to disrupt one of Iran’s most vital economic lifelines.

A deeply rooted economic partnership

Despite long-standing disputes, including disagreements over the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Iran and the UAE have built extensive and resilient economic ties over the past several decades.

Geographical proximity, advanced port infrastructure, and liberal trade regulations have transformed the UAE into a hub for Iranian commerce since the end of the Iran-Iraq War. Thousands of Iranian companies have established operations there, and a large share of Iran’s imports has flowed through re-export channels based in Dubai. Over time, the UAE became not just a trading partner but a critical gateway to global markets for heavily-sanctioned Iran.

For much of the past two decades, the UAE has ranked either first or second among Iran’s trading partners, often competing closely with China. Today, it remains one of the largest suppliers of goods to Iran, accounting for a significant share of its imports.

Roughly one-third of goods entering Iran—from mobile phones and electronics to auto parts, cosmetics, and clothing—have passed through the UAE, representing trade worth billions of dollars annually. The disruption of this flow is already being felt. In some sectors, such as mobile phones, prices have reportedly surged by 40 to 50 percent following the halt in imports.

With limited alternatives offering the same combination of proximity, infrastructure, and financial connectivity, any prolonged rupture could deepen Iran’s economic isolation and accelerate a costly realignment of its trade networks.

Trade imbalance and export structure

Iran’s exports to the UAE have largely consisted of oil products, petrochemicals such as fertilizers and industrial feedstocks, metals and minerals, agricultural goods including fresh produce and nuts, and construction materials like stone. However, much of this trade has been indirect, with the UAE serving as a re-export hub for Iranian goods destined for third markets.

At the same time, exports from the UAE to Iran have consistently exceeded Iran’s exports in the opposite direction, creating a significant trade imbalance. The UAE’s role as an intermediary—rather than a final destination—has been central to this asymmetry.

Sanctions and the UAE’s pivotal role

The importance of the UAE grew dramatically after the tightening of US and European sanctions on Iran, particularly following Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018. As direct trade routes narrowed, the UAE became the primary conduit for goods, capital, and financial flows into Iran.

Emirati exports to Iran rose from around $5.2 billion in 2018 to more than $20 billion in recent years. Dubai also became a financial hub for Iranian exchange houses, many of which played a key role in facilitating currency transfers and circumventing sanctions. Exchange rates set in Dubai’s markets often influenced the value of the Iranian rial domestically.

However, this system is now under pressure. UAE authorities have reportedly targeted Iranian exchange houses and so-called “trust companies,” freezing accounts, shutting offices, and detaining some operators. These actions could severely constrain Iran’s access to international financial channels.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604232479

Iran’s economy after the March war: how bad can it get?

 Iran’s economy is heading into a period of sharp deterioration following the March war, with mounting pressure from inflation, currency depreciation and damage to key industries raising the risk of a broader crisis.

Over the next two to four months, Iran’s economic conditions are expected to continue deteriorating sharply, with high inflation, rising unemployment, falling real incomes, and significant stress across key industries, the external sector, and the financial system, amounting to severe stagflation.

The economy entered the recent war from a weak starting point, and the combined effects of war-related damage, financial strain, and policy responses are likely to intensify these pressures.

Under a continued ceasefire, the deterioration is expected to be gradual but persistent; under a strictly enforced naval blockade, the adjustment is likely to be faster and more severe, with risks of very high inflation and broader economic disruption.

However, hyperinflation and full economic collapse are less likely in the next two to four months. An effectively enforced blockade, combined with military operations focused on reopening and securing the Strait of Hormuz, will push Tehran to the edge of economic collapse.

Starting point: A weak economy before the war

Iran entered the war from an already fragile position. By late 2025, inflation was elevated above 50 percent, the rial had lost substantial value, and the banking system was under visible strain, notably by the collapse of Bank Ayandeh. These pressures had already reduced household purchasing power and severely weakened business activity.

The continued depreciation of the currency, which saw the rial lose more than 20 percent in less than 20 days by the end of 2025, and worsening economic conditions contributed to widespread unrest across the country, which was ultimately suppressed. This left the economy highly vulnerable even before the war began.

Impact on income-generating industries

The war has directly affected Iran’s main sources of export revenue. Damage to industrial infrastructure—especially in petrochemicals and metals—has disrupted sectors that generated roughly $25–30 billion in exports in 2024 (petrochemicals: $13–17 billion; metals: $12–13 billion).

Production in these sectors is now constrained by:

  • Physical damage to facilities, and utility infrastructure
  • Shortages of inputs and spare parts
  • Limited access to financing and foreign exchange

Even partial restoration of operations is expected to take time, and exports from these industries are likely to decline sharply in the near term.

Spillovers to other sectors are also significant. In the agriculture sector, fertilizer shortages and disrupted logistics are expected to reduce output. Heightened uncertainty, combined with likely shortages of steel and possibly cement, is contributing to a significant slowing of activity in the construction sector, particularly in private projects. The auto sector is also likely to suffer a setback due to the lack of steel and aluminum.

Internet blackout and business disruption

Domestic policy responses have added further strain. The widespread internet blackout has severely disrupted economic activity, especially small and medium-sized businesses reliant on digital platforms.

According to NetBlocks, the economic cost of internet shutdowns in Iran has been estimated to be at least $37 million per day during recent outages.

The blackout has:

  • Disrupted online sales and payment systems
  • Interrupted supply chains and coordination
  • Reduced access to information and markets

These effects extend beyond online businesses and have slowed activity across the broader economy.

Financial system stress

The financial system, already under pressure before the war, is facing increased risks. The collapse of Bank Ayandeh in December 2025 highlighted underlying vulnerabilities in the banking sector. Other large banks were already under strain prior to the conflict.

Current conditions may lead to:

  • Reduced lending as banks conserve liquidity
  • Increased risk of bank distress if access to funding tightens
  • Potential loss of confidence affecting deposits and payment systems

The disruption of the private trade credit system—often based on post-dated checks—has further constrained business financing. Recent signals from the judiciary suggesting reduced legal consequences for unpaid checks have weakened enforcement, discouraging sellers from extending credit and further restricting transactions.

Impact on households

Households are expected to reduce spending significantly. Private consumption accounts for roughly 50 percent of the economy, so this contraction will have broad effects.

Key drivers include:

  • Rising prices and declining real incomes
  • Increased uncertainty leading to precautionary saving
  • Reduced access to credit
  • Wealth effect due to declines in asset values, particularly equities in sectors affected by the war and the closure of Tehran Stock Exchange.

These factors point to rising unemployment, a notable decline in private consumption, and a broad and significant decline in living standards.

Economic conditions over the next 2-4 months

Scenario 1: Continuation of ceasefire with the US and Israel

Under this scenario, large-scale hostilities do not escalate further, and oil exports continue, although under constraints. However, petrochemical and metals exports remain significantly disrupted due to infrastructure damage and ongoing restrictions on trade and financial channels, including limited access to regional intermediaries such as the UAE.

In this environment:

  • Oil revenues continue to provide limited foreign currency inflow
  • Inflation remains around current high levels due to currency weakness and supply disruptions
  • Industrial activity remains below capacity
  • The banking system remains under pressure but avoids immediate systemic collapse

Economic conditions continue to deteriorate, with persistent pressure on household incomes and employment. The rial is likely to remain under depreciation pressure, sustaining elevated inflation in the 50-60 percent corridor. Resource allocation is expected to be heavily tilted toward military rebuilding—particularly missile and defense capabilities—while remaining funds are directed toward essential imports such as food and medicine.

Scenario 2: Rigorously enforced naval blockade

Under this scenario, a naval blockade is strictly enforced following recent actions by the United States administration. Iran would be largely unable to export oil through the Persian Gulf, with only limited alternative channels (such as “ghost fleet” activity) available.

In this case:

  • Foreign currency inflows drop sharply
  • The rial depreciates further, leading to a rapid acceleration in inflation
  • Imports become severely constrained, limited to mainly essential goods
  • Industrial activity declines further due to lack of inputs and financing
  • Pressure on the banking system intensifies as liquidity conditions worsen

The loss of oil export revenue significantly weakens the government’s ability to stabilize the economy. Note that the “ghost fleet” overseas is likely to continue generating revenue for the next two to three months.

However, if the blockade is expected to continue, the government will ration this revenue for the near future. Inflation would rise sharply but most likely will not break the 100 percent ceiling, and the risk of broader economic breakdown increases, particularly if access to foreign currency becomes severely limited.

As in the first scenario, despite the dire economic situation, the government is expected to prioritize military spending to rebuild defense capabilities and prepare for future conflict.

Remaining resources would be directed toward securing basic goods such as food and medicine. Under a strict blockade, however, even if essential goods remain available, high inflation and rising unemployment would leave many households unable to afford them, sharply reducing living standards and intensifying public discontent. Even so, a full-scale economic collapse or hyperinflation is not expected within the next two to four months.

Scenario 3: Naval blockade plus major military operation in Iran's south

Under this scenario, strict enforcement of the naval blockade is coupled with a major military operation focused mainly on the south of Iran to reopen and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Such an operation would render Iran not only unable to export oil but would also disrupt most of its trade through the Persian Gulf, including the import of food and other essential goods.

Securing basic goods would become extremely difficult for the government, which would be diverting its limited resources toward active military confrontation. Most economic activities are likely to come to a halt as inputs become extremely scarce and uncertainty rises sharply.

Inflation would spiral out of control, prompting the government to impose stricter limits on the payment system to prevent hyperinflation. These measures would, in turn, hinder economic activity even further. A full economic collapse within two to four months would not be inevitable, but it would remain a distinct possibility.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604232479

Iranian national charged with smuggling migrants into United States

 

An Iranian national charged with running a transnational human smuggling operation that brought migrants, mostly Iranians, into the United States via Latin America, US authorities said on Friday.

The US Department of Justice said an indictment unsealed in Texas accuses Jafar Tafakori, 57, of coordinating the illegal entry of large numbers of people into the United States between December 2022 and May 2024.

Tafakori was arrested on Thursday in Colombia at the request of the United States and is expected to face prosecution after extradition.

Prosecutors said he worked with others to arrange routes through South and Central America, providing migrants with shelter, transportation and at times airline tickets before directing them to cross the US-Mexico border illegally.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604194357

US Life Insurers Have Shifted More General Account Risk Offshore

 


US life insurers have shifted more of their general account risk to entities abroad than in the US as of year-end, the first time that offshore reinsurance hubs have overtaken domestic ones for that business.

Deals to cut the risk of US life insurers’ general accounts with offshore entities represented $1.06 trillion in reserves in 2025, accounting for nearly 52% of the industry’s total use of reinsurance, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence report published Friday.


'Lying Scumbag': Schumer Blasted on Saying 'Nobody Respects' Border Patrol, ICE On Senate Floor

 by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) ignited an intense political firestorm Thursday, after disparaging the nation’s top immigration enforcement agencies on the Senate floor.

During a debate over a Republican-led $70 billion funding plan for the agencies, Schumer asserted that “nobody respects” Customs and Border Protection (CBP) or Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).  His remarks came as Senate Republicans advanced a budget reconciliation measure—passed 50-48—to fund ICE and CBP, bypassing Democrats. The move became necessary after Schumer refused to fund the agencies through traditional means.

The senator argued that the funding should have been tied to reforms and called ICE and CBP “lawless” agencies that need oversight.

America is crying out for relief from high costs, and you’re here adding $140 billion to an agency—two groups—Border Patrol and ICE, that nobody respects in this country,” Schumer declared.

Schumer’s $140 billion figure combines the newly advanced $70 billion funding plan with additional funds previously allocated to ICE and Border Patrol under prior Republican legislation.

The reprehensible comments drew immediate condemnation from top Republicans.

President Donald Trump demanded an immediate apology, calling the statement “one of the most egregious, incorrect, unpatriotic, and dangerous” ever made by a politician.

“Wow! Cryin’ Chuck Schumer just said, for the whole World to hear, that “NOBODY RESPECTS BORDER PATROL OR ICE,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “That is one of the most egregious, incorrect, unpatriotic, and dangerous statements I have EVER heard from a “professional” politician,” the president added. “HE MUST IMMEDIATELY APOLOGIZE TO THESE GREAT PATRIOTS, AND I MEAN NOW!”

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) stated Thursday that ICE and Border Patrol agents weren’t the problem, “Democrats are.”

Today’s Democrats are a rogue and radical party,” Barrasso told reporters, adding that ICE and Border Patrol “deserve better than reckless Democrat hostage-taking.”

“You deserve the tools and support from Congress necessary to carry out the mission Congress has given you. Our country depends on you,” he said.

During an appearance on Fox News, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin blasted Schumer, calling him a “lying scumbag” who uses taxpayer-funded security while undermining federal agents.

“It makes my ears red,”  Mullin seethed, adding, “it takes a lot to get me upset. But Chuck Schumer, no one respects you. The definition of a lying scumbag politician, that is you; you would be the definition if you Googled you right now.”

The DHS Secretary continued his blistering retort, saying: “Why doesn’t he [Chuck Schumer] come out and be honest with the American people? He wants to have open borders.”

“You’re for open borders and you’re for criminals running amuck in our cities,” Mullin added heatedly.

He then pointed out that Schumer hypocritically enjoys taxpayer-funded security while simultaneously working to defund the agencies protecting the rest of the country.

How about he walks around these city streets without a detail? I wonder how safe he would feel,” Mullin challenged.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lying-scumbag-schumer-blasted-after-saying-nobody-respects-border-patrol-and-ice-senate