Incyte 2026 outlook assumes no incremental Jakafi XR revenue

 

Incyte posts Q4 revenue of $1.51B topping estimates while adjusted EPS of $1.80 misses, with total revenue up 28% in Q4 and 21% for FY2025, and guides 2026 net product revenue to $4.77–$4.94B; on its call, it said Jakafi XR is expected to be approved and launch in mid‑2026 and that its 2026 outlook assumes no incremental XR revenue.

• 2025 revenue grew 21% to $5.4B; product sales up 20%, above guidance and expectations.
• Jakafi 2025 sales rose 11% to $3.09B; 2026 growth slows to mid‑single digits pre‑LOE.
• Core business ex‑Jakafi grew 53% to $1.26B; guided to ~30% growth in 2026.
• Opsilura sales up 33% to ~$678M; 2026 guide implies ~15% growth amid pricing for access.
• Hematology/oncology portfolio grew 83% to $583M; 2026 guide implies 40–50% growth.
• 2026 total revenue guided to $4.77–$4.94B, +10–13% YoY, despite lower milestone revenue.
• Late‑stage pipeline expanded to 14 pivotal trials by year‑end 2026 across 7 key assets.
• Povorcitinib for HS filed in US/EU; positioned as first oral HS option, targeting pre‑biologic use.
• Operating expense growth held to ~4% in 2026, driving continued operating leverage.
• Key risk: execution on multiple Phase III trials and launches to replace Jakafi post‑2028.
• Strong quarter, driven by broad‑based product growth and outsized expansion of the ex‑Jakafi portfolio. Main concern: flawless execution on a crowded 2026–2028 launch and pivotal trial slate to offset eventual Jakafi loss of exclusivity.

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