Procept results shaded by execution risk

 

PROCEPT BioRobotics issues 2027 guidance for 25%–30% revenue growth, 68%–70% gross margins and $25–$30M adjusted EBITDA

• Company introduced 2027 financial guidance at its 2026 Investor Day.
• Procept BioRobotics missed fiscal Q4 2025 EPS and revenue estimates.
• Non-GAAP EPS was -$0.53 in fiscal Q4 2025, down 51% year-over-year.
• Fiscal Q4 2025 revenue grew 12% YoY to $76.4M, below management expectations on consumables mix.
• 2026 revenue guidance reset to $390–$410M, implying 27–33% growth and lower than prior outlook.
• Reset reflects lower handpiece volume assumptions and expected impacts from ongoing sales force realignment.
• 2026 U.S. procedures guided to 60k–64k (+39–48%), with accelerating growth expected in the second half.
• 2026 gross margin guided to ~65% despite higher tariffs, with EBITDA positive in Q4 2026.
• U.S. procedures rose ~69% YoY to 12,200 in Q4, highlighting strong underlying demand momentum.
• Handpiece units were 9,400, only ~80% of procedures, as existing inventory was drawn down.
• Company ended end‑of‑quarter bulk discounts, lifting Q4 handpiece ASP 5% to $3,340.
• New policy aligns handpiece sales to procedures (~1:1 in 2026) but cuts reported revenue.
• Commercial reorg and dedicated launch team create near‑term disruption but aim to boost utilization.
• Key debate focuses on demand durability, 1:1 handpiece ratio, and execution on the new sales model.
• Main concern is execution risk around salesforce reorganization and pricing model sustaining growth without further guidance cuts.

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