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Monday, January 20, 2025

'We're back. I'm excited': Portraits of the crowd at Trump's inauguration

 They came from New York and Washington, North Carolina and Southern California, New Jersey and Newcastle, and even Europe and China.

Many were long-time supporters of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, rally veterans in MAGA hats who believe fervently in his refrain that he will "Make America Great Again." Some had never heard Trump speak before and were curious.

Some were not especially political but wanted to see history in the making.

They were there to witness - albeit via a screen - the swearing-in for a second term on Monday of Trump, who has pledged to push the limits of executive power, deport millions of immigrants, secure retribution against his political enemies and transform the role of the U.S. on the world stage.

Perry Burnett, aged 56, was at his first inauguration. He was dressed in red and sporting a MAGA cap.

"All this gear I'm wearing, I couldn't wear it in public in Southern California," he said. His expectations were high. "My wife, the day he got elected, she booked the tickets, said, 'we've got to be there for this, because this is going to change the world.'"

For Daul Williams, 61, at his fourth inauguration, it was all about the economy and inflation - an issue that polls indicate was key to Trump's November election win and a top concern for many voters.

"I love bacon. I love bacon at $7 a pound. Right now, bacon is $13.50 a pound," he said.

Grace Sun had traveled all the way from Shenzhen in southeastern China and hoped Trump would herald better relations between Washington and Beijing. Millie Eads, a high school teacher from Texas, wanted her students to know "that this is a beautiful country in which to live." She had wrapped herself in a giant yellow poncho to fend off the inclement weather.

Two men giving their names only as Alex and James, dressed as Alexander Hamilton and George Washington, were old friends who had met in the U.S. capital for the event and admitted they were not really there for the politics.

"We just came to have a good time," they said.

PORTRAIT OF A PROTEST

Not everyone was happy about the prospect of the next four years. Although anti-Trump protests were smaller than in 2017, thousands of activists held a 'People's March' on Saturday and others turned out in the snow for a protest on Monday.

Cameron White, 27, from Manassas in Virginia, attended Monday's event. He is an organizer for the Party for Socialism and Liberation, he said.

"We are not an anti-Trump protest. Trump is just a representative of a larger system. And that's the system that we are organizing and we are trying to combat against," said White.

Morgan Artyukhina, from Washington, said she was worried about what was coming. Like others at the protest, she said she was concerned about what Trump's presidency will mean for immigrants, for the poor, and for LGBTQ people.

But she said she also felt a sense of solidarity from those like her who opposed his policies.

"Our message is that we are actually going to not be divided by their messages of hate. We're going to stand united and we're going to stand up for each other," she said.

Michael Vasquez, 58, from North Carolina, was waving an eight-foot (2.4-meter) blue-and-white "TRUMP" sign.

"The sign right here warms me up," he said. "It warms up Americans and it warms up people all over the world."

AI-Generated Regulation: Not Ready for Prime Time

 By Connor Raso

American Enterprise Institute


Key Points

  • Generative AI models do not appear ready to draft regulations for government agency staff. The policies in AI-drafted rules are overly influenced by the number of comments supporting a particular position, and the reasoning is too cursory.
  • Current generative AI models show more promise in summarizing comments, which will likely save agency staff significant time and reduce the likelihood that they overlook important comments.
  • Technology will undoubtedly advance, and future versions of AI may improve at evaluating the merits of comments and responding to them.

Read the pdf.

Executive Summary

Generative AI has attracted great attention in the policymaking sphere, including for agency rulemaking. This report compares a final rule drafted by a generative AI model with the Department of Transportation’s actual rule. The AI model’s policy recommendations appear overly sensitive to the number of commenters supporting a position rather than the strength of their evidence and reasoning. Moreover, the rule draft is relatively cursory and lacks the explanatory depth expected in agency rules. The results are more promising with respect to summarizing comments, which may save agency staff significant time and increase their responsiveness to comments. Future generations of generative AI will undoubtedly improve, meriting ongoing study of these issues.

Read the full report.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/ai-generated-regulation-not-ready-for-prime-time-yet/

BlackRock And The Rest Of The ‘Climate Cartel’ Stacked Exxon’s Board With Fossil Fuel Haters

 A recent House Judiciary Committee report details how America’s largest financial institutions, colluding with climate activists, imposed radical environmental policies on the American economy, subverting both our self-government and free markets. It focuses on the successful effort to insert climate activist directors on the board of energy giant ExxonMobil. 

According to the report, there is “substantial evidence of a ‘climate cartel’ of financial institutions” including the “Big Three” asset managers (BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard), several massive state pension funds, European investment firms, and the two foreign-owned proxy advisory firms that dominate the American market.

This cartel coordinated its efforts through a network of “alliances” that included “left-wing environmental activist” groups such as the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero and The Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (NZAM). The Big Three belonged to both.

The cartel made Exxon a “focus company” on its “climate blacklist,” subjecting Exxon to “a barrage of shareholder pressure campaigns — more than any other company in the world” — all designed to force Exxon to reduce its fossil fuel production. 

The Big Three’s support was “crucial” to the success of this effort. Combined, they owned 20.5 percent of Exxon’s shares. The cartel believed that was enough “clout to change outcomes.” As it turned out, it was. 

In 2021, the cartel used a fledgling activist hedge fund called Engine No. 1 to nominate environmentalists to replace Exxon board members. At first, people thought it was a joke. It wasn’t. BlackRock voted for three of the nominees. State Street and Vanguard voted for two. All three climate activists were elected to Exxon’s board. 

Then it got worse. As absurd as it sounds, within less than a year, Exxon — our nation’s largest and most profitable oil company — adopted a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. So America’s preeminent oil company now supports severely reducing if not eliminating the very product that justifies its existence. Why would Exxon do that? 

Well, not because the people’s elected representatives voted to enact such a self-destructive policy. Despite extreme media and activist pressure, there is no legislation requiring Exxon to adopt a net zero policy — because it’s a ridiculous thing for an oil company to do, and many Americans do not support it. 

Nor was there a lack of consumer demand for Exxon’s products. On the contrary, the demand for oil is accelerating worldwide. 

Nor was it in the best financial interests of Exxon’s actual shareholders (the Big Three’s investor clients) for Exxon to pursue climate commitments at the expense of its most profitable products. 

It happened because the Big Three used the power they derive from investing other people’s money to force compliance with a radical political goal, overriding both our self-government and our consumer-driven free market economy. 

But what about the Big Three’s fiduciary duty to invest solely in their clients’ best financial interests? Even lawyers affiliated with the environmental activist group Climate Action 100+ — of which both BlackRock and State Street were members — thought that “the economic and social costs” of Paris Agreement compliance “are so high” that they do not align with the fiduciary duty that asset managers owe their clients. 

On the upside, the Exxon vote brought the cartel’s radical climate activism out in the open. Not surprisingly, people reacted. State legislators passed fiduciary duty legislation. Republican AGs sent letters to the Big Three, alleging that they had violated their fiduciary duties, and Tenessee filed a lawsuit against BlackRock. Eleven states filed an antitrust case against the Big Three. And now we have the House Judiciary Committee finding of “substantial evidence of collusion and anticompetitive behavior” with the Trump administration about to take office. 

Perhaps coincidentally, in recent weeks there has been an exodus by major U.S. financial companies from climate activist groups, including BlackRock’s recent withdrawal from NZAM. If you’re wondering how important BlackRock was to this effort, within days, NZAM suspended its operations. 

BlackRock now claims its NZAM membership “caused confusion regarding BlackRock’s practices and subjected [it] to legal inquiries from various public officials” but didn’t really affect how it “manage[d] [clients’] portfolios.” 

That’s hard to believe, but the good news is that if it’s true, BlackRock will have plenty of opportunity to prove it — in the lawsuits it’s up against, in future congressional investigations, and before the Trump administration officials tasked with enforcing antitrust laws and the fiduciary obligations imposed by ERISA. 

Will there be a meaningful change in the Big Three’s environmental activism? They each issue updated proxy voting guidance in the spring. BlackRock’s is already out. This year’s guidance will be worth a close read.

Some Doctors Over-Trust AI and Don’t Even Realize It

 Stephen Belmustakov, MD, recently started a new job in private practice and for some reason felt “on edge.”

And then he figured it out. In his previous position at a New York City hospital, he’d trained on a new tool called Aidoc, which uses an algorithm to predict abnormalities on radiology scans. The private practice where he now works doesn’t use any artificial intelligence (AI) tools and he found himself interpreting images…all by himself.

Was AI a crutch? No. But a cushion, perhaps? Belmustakov had initial skepticism about using an AI tool in imaging, but as time went on, he found himself taking comfort in having an instant second opinion. He felt that edginess in his new AI-free position “because we wouldn’t have this extra layer, potentially, to double check.”

There’s more. AI tools are increasingly beating trainees to the punch, pointing out potentially suspicious areas before the physician has had time to react to what’s on the screen.

“That can really affect how you learn,” Belmustakov said. “If a tool already told you that it’s positive, it’s going to kind of change the way you look at things.”

This tendency to defer to an automated system is known as automation bias. Maybe you’ve read of extreme examples, like drivers following global positioning system (GPS) navigation into deep water in HawaiiSouth Carolina, and Australia. And tragic, like the mother who followed GPS in Death Valley.

It’s easy to joke about that but not only do we trust GPS but also we’re on the verge of trusting the car to drive itself.

In medicine, more and more AI tech will be teaching highly trained clinicians to trust machines. Is over-reliance on decision-based medical tech inevitable? And the potential errors that may follow?

Tarun Kapoor, MD, thinks so. Chief digital transformation officer at Virtua Health, a nonprofit healthcare system in southern New Jersey, Kapoor acknowledges the tech’s infancy — less than 4% of hospitals are considered “high adopters” of AI — “but automation bias will become widespread with the tools that are continuing to develop at light speed,” he said. “It’s a conversation that needs to happen right now.”

See What’s Coming

Just about any logical, intelligent, educated person — a physician, for example — would say, “The machine shouldn’t be making the decisions, and I won’t allow it to make mine for me.”

But that’s why it’s called a “bias.” You may not even be aware how much you come to depend on useful tech.

The automation bias conversation could begin by exploring “the way these tools are communicating with clinicians,” said Jennifer Goldsack, CEO of the Digital Medicine Society, a nonprofit organization focused on enhancing trust and adoption of digital healthcare methods. “We know, or at least have signals in the data, that the way that the information is presented matters,” Goldsack said.

For instance, new research suggested clinicians’ trust in AI could depend on how a model explains its predictions. Some tools display small boxes around potential abnormalities on radiology scans. Other tools justify findings with comparisons to similar scans or provide written explanations. But there’s “a pretty big gap” in scientists’ understanding of how clinicians respond to different “explainability methods,” said senior author Paul Yi, MD, the director of Intelligent Imaging Informatics at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee.

“There’s really limited research on how AI explanations are presented to radiologists and other doctors, and how that affects them,” Yi said. “And this is in spite of hundreds of FDA-cleared products now available on the market for radiology using AI.”

Yi, a radiologist, joined computer scientists at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, to study how clinicians would evaluate chest x-rays when presented with AI-predicted abnormalities. Some predictions were incorrect, and explanations for the AI predictions varied between simple (boxes around potential problems) and more thorough (comparisons to similar cases). The participants, including 220 radiologists and nonradiologists, could accept, reject, or alter the AI suggestions. They also ranked the usefulness of the model and their confidence level in it.

“When the AI was wrong, the nonradiologists were more likely to rate the tool as useful, while the radiologists were like, ‘this is terrible,’” Yi said. “You don’t know what you don’t know.”

Regardless of expertise, participants tended to agree with the AI much faster if the explanation was simple, rather than more thorough. But this heightened efficiency could end up being a “double-edged sword” for overworked radiologists, according to Yi.

“It’s great if the AI is correct. It’s great if we’re at the top of our game,” Yi said. “But let’s say the AI is wrong and the radiologist happens to have had a bad night. They’re kind of tired, and they’re like, ‘I’m just gonna click yes. Let’s move on.’ That’s where things can fall through the cracks.”

Why Do We Trust Machines? 

The human impulse to trust machines is somewhat mysterious, according to Kristin Kostick-Quenet, PhD, a bioethicist and medical anthropologist, and assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine, Houston. Scientists are still trying to understand how humans “calibrate trust with different technological systems,” she said.

Research on automation bias began about 30 years ago and focused on pilots, leading some scholars to conclude that “trust is largely contextual,” Kostick-Quenet said. It depends, in part, on the person using the technology and the setting in which a technology is used. The number of pilots in the cockpit, their years of experience, and how accountable they felt for their performance can all influence a pilot’s level of trust in an automated system.

As for healthcare, clinicians with different specialties and levels of expertise often face high-stakes decisions under pressure and amid great uncertainty. It’s a setting that practically begs for decision reinforcement. Enter, AI.

“You throw all those things together and it’s natural for us to want to seek additional sources of valid information,” Kostick-Quenet said.

Belmustakov can attest to as much. He went from skeptical to relying on an AI second opinion. His experience demonstrates the complexity of actually implementing AI models into healthcare practice. Most providers have been focused on the tools themselves, and whether they’re safe, unbiased, and an improvement over existing methods. But figuring out how to weave AI into real-world situations is “just as important a conversation,” Kapoor said.

Virtua Health has been grappling with how to prevent automation bias among endoscopists using an AI tool called GI Genius. The tool displays small boxes around possible polyps during colonoscopies. Its algorithm is constantly improving, and the tool is getting faster at finding polyps. But this could lead an endoscopist “to tune out a little bit,” Kapoor said. So his team has discussed leaving the tool at a slower setting, to keep endoscopists “fully engaged.”

A faster tool could also have the opposite effect — a kind of reverse automation bias — especially if a model lacks enough evidence. Yi wonders if clinicians could get bogged down by doubt. “You can imagine a scenario where you’re like, ‘this AI might make me faster, but I’m second-guessing it, so I’m actually more burned out than I was before using AI,” Yi said.

And then there’s the possibility that the AI could be wrong.

Belmustakov said Aidoc “missed a significant number of findings and would also flag false positives.” As a result, clinicians lost time. He’d have to call the attending physician and explain his disagreement with the AI, even though “in the back of our mind, we all knew the computer was wrong.”

Court cases have hinged on allegations against physicians who accepted incorrect AI predictions, according to an analysis by Stanford University researchers. Typically, plaintiffs alleged that “what the physician should have done is notice there was a reason not to trust the AI system, or done some additional due diligence,” said co-author Neel Guha, a JD candidate at Stanford Law School, Stanford, California, and a PhD candidate in computer science at Stanford.

What that “due diligence” should include, however, is a lingering question. 

Considering the Safeguards 

As more research continues to illuminate automation bias with the use of AI tools, Yi is looking toward addressing the problem. “How do we set regulation around it, and design methods in the lab that will help reduce these problems?” he said.

That could mean tweaking how a model explains its results, or changing how the AI is described to users. Yi’s study described the AI tool as comparable to experts in the field, which is “how most vendors sell these products,” he said. “They all claim that their AI is expert level, even if the evidence is a little bit controversial.” This could influence how clinicians judge the tool’s predictions.

Other medical fields could also offer ideas to help protect against automation bias. When Yi trained as an orthopedic surgery resident in California, for example, he had to earn an independent license to use an imaging technique called fluoroscopy. But when he changed specialties to radiology — a field whose “bread and butter” is imaging — there was no such requirement. He wonders if similar requirements could be applied to using AI for imaging. Radiologists with a certain level of training would be authorized to use AI tools, but nonradiologists might need to take an exam and earn certain credentials, for instance.

Eventually, when AI models have improved, there will come the question of when humans should back off. This, too, will make some adjustments to how clinicians are trained and how they practice, according to Goldsack.

“Technology is an inanimate object. The way that humans interact with it is a human problem, not a technology problem,” she said. “What I don’t want to happen is for us to get these really high-performing tools that routinely outperform humans, and then anchor to a human.”

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/why-some-doctors-over-trust-ai-and-dont-even-realize-it-2025a10001b3

Cleaning Up Biden’s Mess

 by James Rickards

Editor’s note: In honor of Inauguration Day, we’re sending you today’s Daily Reckoning earlier than we typically do. In this article, Jim breaks down all the challenges and opportunities President Trump will face over the next four years. This is must-read material. Enjoy.

Today Donald J. Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. This marks a major turning point in U.S. history. Not only is the U.S. political system moving from a Democratic to a Republican administration, but it’s also moving from a centralized, elite, neo-fascist regime to a decentralized, popular and pro-liberty movement. This is a welcome change for America and comes not a moment too soon. It’s a breath of fresh air for those buried under taxes, regulations, censorship and woke ideology. It’s a good day in America.

Still, it would be naïve to believe that the Biden team have not done everything possible to handicap the Trump transition before they take office. All the money that could be spent has been spent. Where the money could not be spent quickly, long-term contracts were signed to make sure it will be spent during Trump’s second term even if Trump opposes it.

Decisions have been made, funds and weapons delivered, and outsourcing operations to other nations have all been done to tie Trump’s hands and limit his options. This all goes by the name of “Trump-proofing” the government against Trump’s policies. Some of it can be undone by Trump, but not all by any means.

The Fork Move

One of the techniques used by Biden to derail Trump’s policies and tarnish his new administration is based on a chess move called the fork. It’s a relatively simple but powerful move.

In a fork, one player advances a piece to a space where it is attacking two opposing pieces at once. The bishop is good for this because it can move diagonally in any direction and can advance as far as it wants in a single move.

A white bishop might advance to a place where it threatens a black knight (ahead and to the right) and a black rook (ahead and to the left) at the same time. The combination of the advance with two lines of attack creates a kind of “Y” pattern, which is how the name “fork” arises. Black might be able to save one of the pieces by moving it out of danger, but the other piece will definitely be lost. The idea is that the player caught in the fork may have choices but will definitely lose in some manner when the move is played out.

Joe Biden and his team have set up several forks on different chessboards to ensure Trump suffers defeats in the weeks and months ahead. It’s important to understand these forks because investors may also lose as the game progresses.

Biden’s Three Fork Moves

The first Biden fork involves new economic sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the war in Ukraine.

Biden has imposed new “ghost fleet” sanctions on Russian oil exports. The term ghost fleet refers to oil tankers that are not insured in the London market and may involve vessels that are re-flagged, renamed or turn off their transponders while in transit. In short, the ghost fleet is used by Russia to deliver oil exports (usually to China or India) in defiance of western oil export sanctions.

Biden’s new sanctions prohibit ghost fleet vessels from entering and docking in ports of countries that support the sanctions. A number of NATO nations, especially those in the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland, have said they will board Russian vessels to check their insurance documents. In extreme cases, oil cargoes may be seized by NATO navies, although that is rare. All these actions closely resemble high seas piracy.

Sanctions of this type never work for long. There are too many ways around them, beginning with the fact that importers like China and India do not support the sanctions. That said, the ghost fleet sanctions will tend to raise the price of oil because finding insurance or taking circuitous routes can be expensive.

Here’s the fork: If Trump keeps the sanctions in place, he’ll be blamed for causing inflation resulting from higher oil prices. If Trump removes the sanctions, he’ll be branded as a Putin puppet. Trump can choose his response, but either way he’ll lose. He’s either causing inflation or bowing to Putin.

The Second Fork

The next fork involves the course of the war in Ukraine. Biden and Ukraine are escalating the war to a point that’s dangerously close to nuclear war. This escalation includes using intermediate-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia. Russia responded by using its Oreshnik hypersonic missile to strike a factory in Dnipro. The missile not only destroyed the factory, but turned it to dust.

Biden did not get the message. The ATACMS launches continued, followed by the brazen assassination of a top Russian general and his aide on the streets of Moscow. Biden also delivered tens of billions of dollars of new funding to Ukraine and supplied missiles and artillery shells from severely depleted U.S. arsenals.

The fork: If Trump continues on this pre-determined path, the war will go on as the Biden Neocons hope. That means Trump will get the blame for the ultimate collapse of Ukraine, which is coming. On the other hand, if Trump de-escalates, he’ll be called a Putin stooge and be blamed for any peace deal that concedes Ukrainian territory to Russia. Again, Trump can choose to escalate or deescalate, but either way he’ll be blamed for the Ukrainian defeat. Trump can choose but he’s bound to lose.

Fork Move #3

A third fork involves Biden’s move to steal Russian-owned U.S. Treasury securities to support a loan to Ukraine to be used in its war with Russia.

In February 2022, at the start of the war in Ukraine, the U.S. and European Union (EU) froze about $300 billion of Russian assets in the form of U.S. Treasury securities lawfully purchased by the Central Bank of Russia. About $200 billion of those securities were held in custody by Euroclear, a major global clearinghouse and custodian based in Brussels.

Freezing assets is a standard technique in financial warfare. Typically, the assets remain frozen while the war (or other cause for sanctions) persists but can be un-frozen once some treaty or other agreement is reached. In this case, the U.S. has gone further and actually stolen about $50 billion of interest on the securities to be used as collateral for a loan to Ukraine that almost certainly can never be repaid.

This extreme action is one reason why the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other group members) are moving quickly to build non-dollar payment systems and are acquiring gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or converted by the U.S.

Again, Trump has no good options. If he continues to support the loan made with stolen assets, he contributes to the long-term decline of confidence in the dollar. If he stops the loan program and either demands that the loan be repaid or otherwise restores the stolen Russian assets, he will be accused of undermining Ukrainian war efforts or supporting Russia or both.

As an incoming president, Trump should have freedom of action with regard to policies involving economic sanctions on Russia, escalation of the war in Ukraine, and weaponization of the U.S. dollar through asset seizures. He won’t. Instead, his hands have been tied by Biden’s forking moves that leave Trump with options but none of them good.

Trump’s Countermove

In chess, one way to avoid losing a piece in a fork is to put one of your opponent’s high value pieces in jeopardy. For example, if Black is confronting a fork, it can position a piece to take the White queen in one move. That way, White will act to protect the White queen instead of taking the Black knight or rook. The player on defense (Black) moves to offense to avoid the White fork.

Trump can do the same to Biden. He could hold a press conference or give a speech explaining to the American people exactly how Biden has acted in bad faith and jeopardized the best interests of the United States with his forks.

A transition is intended to give time for a smooth transition from one administration to another. Instead, Biden has used the time to lay traps for the new administration. Trump should call him out, explain why he will act in the best interests of the nation, and insulate himself from the canned criticisms of the progressives and the legacy media. This high road approach will make for an ignominious end to the already failed Biden presidency.

https://dailyreckoning.com/2025-sitrep-cleaning-up-bidens-mess/

Mexico Is All Talk: They Have No Power To Stop Trump's Mass Deportation Plans

 In the weeks leading up to Donald Trump's inauguration there has been an escalation in rhetoric from Mexico and the rest of Central America in regards to the plan for mass deportations of illegal immigrants.  The prevailing message from these neighbors to the south was, initially, that they will do anything they can to make the process difficult.  Trump, expecting this response, has used the threat of tariffs as leverage to gain cooperation.  And frankly, it's working.

Progressive Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been full of bluster but she is slowly and surely falling in line.  Sheibaum has been publicly combative with Trump on the issue of deportations, denying Trump's claim that Mexico was planning to secure their border and threatening economic retaliation should tariffs be used.  She recently stated that Mexico's policy was:

"...Not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and people".

Whatever that means.  Analysts dealing in US/Mexico relations claim Sheinbaum is on the right track to ensure a strong ongoing relationship with Trump.  "She's sending this message that she is a strong political leader," said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, a global fellow of the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, pointing to recent polling that shows Sheinbaum has increased her popularity to a staggering 80% approval rating, opens new tab after her first 100 days in office.  "Trump without a doubt comes with a lot of power and legitimacy, but she does as well," Kloppe-Santamaria added. 

But does the Mexican president's approval rating mean anything when it comes to deportation policy?  Not really.  After all, Mexico has been a parasitic element feeding on the US economy for quite some time; it's not surprising that a large portion of the population wants the bloodletting to continue.

For example, Mexico receives billions of dollars in foreign assistance from the US every year.  In 2023 alone, the country was given over $63 billion in payoffs, right out of the pockets of American taxpayers.  This money is given to Mexico with the stated intent of "reducing irregular migration, yet illegal border crossings only skyrocketed along with subsidies.

Mexico is not alone.  Many Central and South American countries receive billions in foreign assistance from the US in the name of slowing immigration caravans.  In other words, these nations keep their borders open and allow millions of illegals to cross into the US, and then extort the US for cash to make the pain stop.  Then, when they get the money, they let even more illegals flood the border.  It's an endless sham.

Beyond the subsidies is the exploitation of the US border as a steam valve to get rid of undesirables.  Criminals, malcontents and the poverty stricken are encouraged to migrate to the US illegally so that Mexico and other countries can avoid civil disturbances.  These corrupt governments don't want to fix their own problems, they outsource them to the US instead. 

Border security is now a non-negotiable factor in America's geopolitical agenda (as it should be) and the notion that the US is supposed to act as a sponge soaking up the refuse leaking out of the third world has lost all favor among native borne citizens (many legal migrants also oppose open borders).  With the majority of Americans in support the deportations are going to happen and there's nothing anyone can do to stop them.

Trump's tariff strategy carries real weight, especially when it comes to Mexico.  More than 80% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., causing much of its economy to depend on American markets. The most prominent exports from Mexico to its northern neighbor are cars and car parts, while the U.S. purchases approximately 92% of Mexican agricultural exports.  Tariffs of 10% or more could wreck the Mexican economy within months.  They have no choice but to comply.

Mexican leaders argue that tariffs will also hurt the US, claiming that this will trigger inflation.  Claudia Sheinbaum asserts that there will also be extensive job losses in the US due to tariffs and deportations.  It's clear she doesn't understand how these things work.

Tariffs create job opportunities by encouraging companies to bring production back into the United States so they can avoid extra import costs.  Deportations, obviously, stop millions of illegal migrant workers from gaming the system by working under the table for much lower wages compared to American laborers.  The very presence of these people drives down the overall wage rate and makes it difficult for native born citizens to find jobs.

In terms of inflation, tariffs can raise prices on foreign goods, but illegal immigrants raise prices more.  The ten million-plus illegals that have entered the US under the Biden Administration have helped to drive up housing prices exponentially.  Their demand for goods and services creates shortages in necessities and because they are often subsidized by tax dollars through welfare programs they drive up the national debt at the same time.      

Mexico remains the leading country of origin for immigrants in the U.S., representing 23% of all migrants, according to the Pew Research Center.  Not only that, but the vast majority of migrants from other parts of the world use Mexico as an open highway to the southern border and the Mexican government does little to interfere. 

This is about to change.  The Mexican president has been adjusting her tune in the past week, stating that Mexico will be preparing to accept deported migrants.  Not only migrants from Mexico, but also those not from outside Mexico (they created the crisis by not securing their own border, so now they get to clean up the mess).   

Sheinbaum announced on Friday that her administration has outlined a contingency plan for Mexican nationals expected to be deported by the incoming United States President.   During her morning press conference, Sheinbaum announced jobs and social programs for ousted Mexicans if Trump decides to carry out his threats of mass deportations when he resumes power on January 20th.  

“We have been preparing to receive Mexicans who have a space at the border and in other places so that they can have access to social programs, employment, and be able to move within our national territory to return to their places of origin..."

It's not that Mexico has become more reasonable in the past month; these kinds of mood changes require a sharp slap upside the skull.  It appears that Mexican and Central American authorities are finally being taken behind the woodshed after years of obstinate behavior. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mexico-all-talk-they-have-no-power-stop-trumps-mass-deportation-plan

Medicare should cover Wegovy — but not negotiate its price

 President Biden took a groundbreaking step in proposing to cover GLP-1 obesity medications under Medicare and Medicaid in November. But on Friday, his administration announced that Wegovy, one of these drugs, would be subject to price controls. This is a surefire way to crush innovation and discourage new entrants to this important new class of medicines that could help millions of Americans.

GLP-1s, or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, are safe and effective. They not only help people lose weight but also reduce the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and potentially fight addiction to alcoholillicit drugs, and opioids — key priorities from President-elect Trump’s first term that also have huge potential to lower health care costs. They can play a substantial role in Trump’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative, and potentially help rein in excessive government spending as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) intends.

Even Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s choice to lead the Department of Health and Human Services and no friend of the drug companies, acknowledged that “GLP drugs have a place” in the MAHA initiative. And Elon Musk, who will lead DOGE, noted on X, “Nothing would do more to improve the health, lifespan and quality of life for Americans than making GLP inhibitors super low cost to the public.”

The question for Trump is: How do we go about it in the most cost-effective way? Allowing Medicare to cover these medications is a great place to start.

The Food and Drug Administration recently elevated obesity to a “chronic disease,” no longer just a “relapsing health risk.” This is a significant shift that gets the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the FDA on the same page. Medicare’s statute forbidding coverage of weight loss drugs was written to prevent coverage for unproven drugs like Dexatrim and fen-phen, not to limit access to proven chronic disease interventions like GLP-1s. To its credit, the Biden White House proposed a new rule in November 2024 that would expand coverage of these medications under Medicare and Medicaid. But to lower costs, Medicare announced that Wegovy will be added to the agency’s Inflation Reduction Act price controls.

This would be foolish. The thinking is based in part on a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report showing that Medicare coverage of obesity medication would spike federal spending. However, CBO assumed drug prices would rise over time when in fact the opposite is true. Competition drives innovation, which lowers prices. Since 2015, spending on retail prescription drugs has largely been stableMajor reforms at the FDA during Trump’s first term accelerated review of generic and biosimilar medications contributed to drug prices growing at the slowest rate in decades. Further, negotiation itself has costs. Over 40 research programs having been discontinued since the IRA was enacted. We’re still exploring all of the conditions which GLP-1s could address. Cutting off resources at this critical juncture is misguided, especially when generics will drive the price down.

In the meantime, the innovator drugs still offer ample opportunity for savings by making patients healthier and obviating more intensive procedures. Medicare covers bariatric surgical procedures, such as certain gastric bypass surgery and laparoscopic banding surgery, which can cost as much as $33,000 per operation. GLP-1s cost about $1,000 per month, but that price is likely to come
down on its own. Further, one also has to consider the benefits to patients. While most bariatric surgeries are minimally invasive, they still are tremendously disruptive, requiring patients to interrupt their schedules, miss work, substantially change their diets and curtail calorie consumption, and there can be complications and side effects. Furthermore, it requires several consultations with a host of specialists, as many as ten, which is even not included in that cost.

When accounting for these offsets and other benefits of the medications, the USC Schaeffer Center, where I am a nonresident Senior Scholar, has estimated that Medicare coverage of weight loss drugs would yield nearly $1 trillion in health care and social savings over the next decade.

Under Biden, the Department of Health and Human Services’ budget ballooned to $1.9 trillion, offering DOGE plenty of space for cuts that should create room for investing in patient health through GLP-1 coverage. Biden’s nursing home rule would cost $17 billion and lead to facilities closing down. Additionally, Biden has sought to saddle vulnerable Americans with expensive and ineffective coverage through a rule expanding Obamacare at the expense of employer coverage and a rule that reduces the frequency of Medicaid eligibility verifications, preventing resources from going to those most in need. Repealing these would save $34 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Chronic diet-related diseases cost nearly half a trillion dollars to treat. The Joint Economic Committee estimates government spending on obesity will exceed $4 trillion by 2033. We must reduce these costs, and done right, expanding access to obesity medications can help make a real dent and improve life for millions of Americans.

A nonresident senior scholar at the USC Schaeffer Institute, Joe Grogan served as White House Domestic Policy Council director to President Trump, 2019-20. He has also served as the Associate Director of Health Programs at the Office of Management and Budget.

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