'Smaller US winter COVID wave adds pressure to Pfizer turnaround'

 Health experts are seeing signs of a much smaller wave of U.S. COVID-19 cases this winter than in previous years, which could put additional pressure on Pfizer to find growth from its non-COVID treatments.

Pfizer, which reports financial results on Tuesday, has been under pressure from investors looking for an improved performance from its other products, such as its cancer drugs, to make up for COVID sales, which have crashed from their pandemic peak of close to $60 billion in revenue.

Investors have yet to be convinced. The stock is trading at around $26.50 - less than half its pandemic-era highs.

COVID products are still a profit driver for the company. Pfizer is forecast by Wall Street to report $5.3 billion in 2024 sales of its COVID antiviral treatment Paxlovid. They are expected to drop by about 25% in 2025.

Sales of Paxlovid and the COVID vaccine are expected to account for 16% of Pfizer's total revenue, estimated to be around $63 billion for 2024, falling to 13% of 2025 revenue, according to analyst estimates.

"They still had a pretty significant contribution of both vaccine and Paxlovid in the guidance. So I think there probably is some risk to that," said Jeff Jonas, portfolio manager for Gabelli Funds, which held about $50 million of Pfizer shares as of September.

Analysts expect earnings of 47 cents per share on $17.4 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter, according to LSEG data, both improvements from a year ago.

BMO Capital markets analyst Evan Seigerman said Pfizer's forecast is already conservative, and with COVID products no longer seen as a core business, investor reaction to lower volumes could be muted.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/other/smaller-us-winter-covid-wave-adds-pressure-to-pfizer-turnaround/ar-AA1yjS3S

White House says Canada has 'misunderstood' tariff order as a trade war, Mexico is 'serious'

 The White House said on Monday it has noticed that Mexico is "serious" about President Donald Trump's executive order on tariffs, but Canada has "misunderstood" it to be a trade war between the neighboring countries.

Trump on Saturday ordered sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, demanding they stanch the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the U.S., kicking off a trade war that could dent global growth and stoke inflation.

"The good news is that in our conversations over the weekend, one of the things we've noticed is that Mexicans are very, very serious about doing what President Trump said," Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House's National Economic Council, said on CNBC.

"Canadians appear to have misunderstood the plain language of the executive order and they're interpreting it as a trade war," Hassett added.

When asked what Canada and Mexico must do to lift the 25% tariffs that Trump announced on Saturday, the president told reporters on Sunday they "have to balance out their trade, number one."

"They've got to stop people from pouring into our country ... they have to stop people pouring in, and we have to stop fentanyl. And that includes China," said Trump, who announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

The president also said the tariffs against the three largest U.S. trading partners, which take effect on Tuesday, might cause Americans some short-term pain, but "long term, the United States has been ripped off by virtually every country in the world."

Trump also indicated on Sunday that the 27-nation European Union would be next in the firing line, but he did not say when.

Hassett, when asked if Trump's policies will create more inflation, said one needs to look at all of the president's policies together. "I think this is going to be one of the biggest supply-side positive shocks that we've ever seen," he said.

The NEC director also said Trump will ultimately decide "what he's going to call off and what he's not" in terms of tariffs.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-mexico-serious-canada-133644275.html

Canada's Auto Industry Faces Shutdown Threat Amid Tariff Shock

 "The auto sector is going to shut down within a week," said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada's Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, who Bloomberg quoted about the weekend tariff shock announced by the Trump administration: A 25% tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, with energy imports from Canada facing only a 10% tariff, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. 

Volpe warned that 25% tariffs, which go into effect at 12:01 am on Tuesday, will mean "absolutely nobody in our business is profitable by a long shot." 

A report from AlixPartners shows the tariff impact will be on about a quarter of the 16 million vehicles sold nationwide, along with parts and components that go into them. The firm said the US import market, valued at $225 billion, would see a $60 billion surge in costs—burdens ultimately passed on to consumers.

Bloomberg cited data from RBC that showed that General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis would sustain the largest earnings hit if the tariffs were prolonged. 

Source: Bloomberg

Shares of General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis were down 7.3%, 4.5%, and 5%, respectively, in premarket trading in New York. 

Wolfe Research analysts estimated that prolonged tariffs could increase new car prices by $3,000. Vehicles with the highest exposure to production and components sourced from Mexico and Canada would face the steepest price bumps. 

"It is going to be a lot of impact," Aruna Anand, CEO of parts supplier Continental AG's North American business, told Bloomberg. 

Anand asked, "The question is who is absorbing the price and it becomes, are we able to absorb that price or is it going to be shifted to the end consumer?"

GM is the king of auto production in Mexico, followed by Nissan, VW, Stellantis, Ford, Kia, and Toyota. These automakers will face the steepest vehicle price increases if they pass the costs on to consumers.

Source: Bloomberg

Michael Robinet, vice president of forecast strategy for S&P Global Mobility, warned that automakers would cut production once tariffs go into effect: "Automakers and suppliers would hold off on building high tariff products. We expect production and sales would go down."

There are concerns that the tariffs could cause a recession in Canada and Mexico. 

Goldman's Dan Dooling (EMEA Head of FX HF Sales) provided clients with a great summary of the trade situation unfolding from Saturday:

• Weekend Trump tariff announcements a surprise vs Friday's close

• US effective tariff rate rises +7% from from Mexico & Canada proposals with a further 1% from China proposals

• 2.5% GDP hit in Canada, 3.5% in Mexico under full 25% tariff

• The 25% Canada and Mexico tariffs imply a 0.7% increase in US core PCE prices and 0.4% hit to GDP (US econ team had 0.3% core pce boost in their baseline)

In case you're wondering, Cars.com's 'Most American Cars 2024' list:

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/canadas-auto-industry-faces-shutdown-threat-amid-tariff-shock

US consumer bureau won't defend Biden-era rules in court after chief was fired

 The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is refusing to defend Biden administration-era rules in court after its director was fired by President Donald Trump.

In "emergency" notices filed on Monday with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans, hours before appeals in two cases were scheduled to be heard, the agency's lawyers said they have "been instructed not to make any appearances in litigation except to seek a pause in proceedings."

One case concerned a CFPB appeal from a Texas federal judge's ruling that the agency in March 2022 unlawfully expanded its authority by deciding to examine banks and financial services companies for possible discrimination.

In the other case, banking industry groups have been appealing a judge's ruling that the CFPB could enforce a March 2023 rule requiring lenders to gather demographic data on small business borrowers.

At a scheduled hearing of the discrimination case, a CFPB lawyer said a pause was needed "to allow the new leadership to evaluate litigation."

The court said both sides should confer to determine whether oral arguments are still needed.

"It would be helpful if you could do it pretty quickly," Circuit Judge Edith Jones said, "but I realize we don't know whether that's practical or not."

Former CFPB director Rohit Chopra announced his departure on Saturday, though his term was not scheduled to end until October 2026.

He had drawn much opposition from Wall Street over his forceful approach to enforcing consumer protection laws.

The Trump administration is expected to curtail the agency, and perhaps roll back some recent rules.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been named acting CFPB director, the agency said on Monday.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-02-03/us-consumer-bureau-wont-defend-biden-era-rules-in-court-after-chief-was-fired

Trump admin ends deportation protections for Venezuelans amid illegal immigration crackdown

 The Trump administration is ending a deportation shield for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans in the U.S., opening the door to them being deported -- just as President Donald Trump has secured an agreement with the socialist country to take back its nationals.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed to Fox News Digital that more than 300,000 nationals protected by Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in 2023 are having their statuses revoked. The New York Times, which first reported details of the move, reported that they will lose temporary status 60 days after the government first publishes the notice.

TPS grants protection from deportation and allows work permits for nationals living in the U.S. from countries deemed unsafe for them to be returned. Then-DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced extensions for TPS for Venezuela, as well as El Salvador, Sudan and Ukraine, for an additional 18 months in the final few days of the Biden administration. That move, if left in place, would have complicated Trump efforts to deport large numbers of those nationalities.

Army soldiers patrol the U.S.-Mexico border at Eagle Pass, Texas, on Jan. 24, 2025. President Donald Trump ordered 1,500 more military personnel to the border with Mexico as part of a flurry of steps to tackle immigration, his spokeswoman said on Jan. 22. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem last week announced that the extension was being revoked, but this move would prematurely end the status altogether. It will apply to those protected by the 2023 designation, but not those protected by a 2021 designation.

Republicans have long been skeptical of the program, arguing that it has been used too broadly, with 17 countries designated at the end of the Biden administration. The first Trump administration cut down on the use of TPS and has indicated it intends to do the same in the second administration.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and White House border czar Tom Homan speak with reporters at the White House on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Venezuelans were one of the top nationalities coming into the U.S. at the height of the 2021-2024 border crisis, with many also coming in through a separate parole policy for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans -- a program now ended by the Trump administration.

On Saturday, Trump said that an agreement had been made with Venezuela to take back its illegal immigrants. Venezuela had started taking back illegal immigrants in 2023 but stopped in early 2024.

"…Venezuela has agreed to receive, back into their Country, all Venezuela illegal aliens who were encamped in the U.S., including gang members of Tren de Aragua," Trump said on Truth Social. 

"Venezuela has further agreed to supply the transportation back. We are in the process of removing record numbers of illegal aliens from all Countries, and all Countries have agreed to accept these illegal aliens back."

The moves come amid a flurry of efforts by the Trump administration to secure the border and significantly ramp up the numbers of deportations and removals from the U.S. The administration has ended parole programs, limited the use of asylum and deployed the military to the southern border.

Meanwhile, Noem visited the southern border on Sunday, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently on a tour of Latin America. Defense Department Secretary Pete Hegseth is heading to the southern border on Monday.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-admin-ends-deportation-protection-massive-number-venezuelans-amid-illegal-immigration-crackdown

Europe soaked up nearly all US LNG exports last month, data show

 U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe jumped in January as cold weather drove up demand and prices for the superchilled gas rose, preliminary data from financial firm LSEG showed.

Nearly nine of every ten cargoes leaving the U.S. headed to Europe, while total exports to all countries for the month reached 8.46 million metric tonnes (MT). That is just shy of the monthly record of 8.6 MT hit in December 2023 and almost the same as the 8.5 MT sold in December 2024, according to LSEG data.

Of the 8.46 MT sold in January, 7.25 MT, or 86%, went to Europe, versus 5.84 MT, or 69%, sold to the continent in December, LSEG data showed.

The U.S. is the world's largest LNG exporter and a key supplier to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. does not have destination clauses on its LNG export contracts, allowing buyers the flexibility to easily move cargoes from one country to another based on demand.

In January at least six cargoes destined to Asia were diverted to Europe amid higher prices and weaker Asian demand, according to LSEG ship-tracking data.

The front-month European benchmark gas contract at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) was trading above $15 per mmBtu last Friday and averaged $14.67 per mmBtu in January, up from $13.82 per mmBtu in December, LSEG data showed.

The Asian benchmark on the Japanese Korean marker(JKM) averaged $14.166/mmBtu in January compared to $14.096 per mmBtu in December, according to LSEG data.

LNG EXPORTS FALL SHORT OF RECORD
U.S. LNG exports were expected to reach a new record in January with the addition of Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana. In January, six cargoes, or 0.43 MT, were exported to Europe from Plaquemines, but the additional production was offset by lower output at Freeport LNG in Texas, which went offline or did not operate at full capacity several times during January, LSEG data showed.eeport is the U.S. third largest LNG exporter but has had problems operating at full capacity for extended periods, according to LSEG data.Venture Global became publicly traded in a blockbuster IPO in January that it the most valuable LNG company in America. It has quickly ramped up production from its 20 MTPA Plaquemines plant, part of which is still under construction, at times pulling as much as 1.3 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas, LSEG data showed.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-soaked-nearly-us-lng-172757786.html

Euro Slides After Report Trump Considering 10% EU Tariff

 The trade war with Mexico may be over almost as fast as it started but a far bigger battle may be about to break out.

According to the Telegraph, Donald Trump is considering plans to impose a 10% tariff on the EU, a move which would "would pour fuel on the blooming global trade war which began on Saturday when the new US president slapped sweeping levies on goods imported from Mexico, Canada and China."

The newspaper adds that according to a source close to Trump’s administration there is not broad agreement “but some want to put a 10 per cent tariff on the EU”. “They’re talking about doing it on all imports from the EU.”

A second source told The Telegraph: “Trump is testing the water with Canada and Mexico and what he can get away with.”

Speaking as he returned to Washington from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Sunday, Trump said tariffs on the EU “will definitely happen”.

“I can tell you that, because they’ve really taken advantage of us – you know, we have [an] over $300 billion (£241.5 billion|) deficit,” he added.

“They don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products. They take almost nothing, and we take everything: from the millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products.”

In response, EU policymakers could hit various US imports with duties of 50% or more if Mr Trump goes ahead with his plans for tariffs, the Financial Times reported. On Sunday, Trump also warned that the UK is “out of line” in its trade with the US but suggested the imbalance could be “worked out”.

Asked if any issues could be ironed out, Mr Trump said Sir Keir has “been very nice”. He added: “We’ve had a couple of meetings. We’ve had numerous phone calls. We’re getting along very well.”

Facing the threat of fresh tariffs, Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor said on Monday that Europe “can react to tariff policies with tariff policies”.

During his first term, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10pc on aluminium from the European Union (EU). The bloc responded in 2018 by placing levies on US goods including whiskey, motorcycles and denim. The bloc responded in 2018 by placing levies on US goods including whiskey, motorcycles and denim.

In response to the Telegraph report, which is just the first of many such notices of more tariffs, the euro skid, and has almost completely reversed its earlier gains following news that US trade war with Mexico is effectively over.

That said, trade wars with Canada and China remain and it looks like Europe is about to be thrown in the mix.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/euro-slides-after-report-trump-considering-10-eu-tariff