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Sunday, March 2, 2025

Mainland China Investors’ Sway Over Hong Kong Stocks Is Growing

 


  • Southbound trading accounts for 46% of daily turnover in Feb.
  • Mainland investors now own almost 12% of Hong Kong shares

Mainland Chinese investors’ support for Hong Kong stocks is growing, helping to ease their valuation discount to onshore peers and indicating the city’s shares may rise further.

Southbound trading accounted for about 46% of the average daily turnover in February, versus about one-third a year ago, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-02/mainland-china-investors-sway-over-hong-kong-stocks-is-growing

Can Europe Ever Catch Up On Defense Spending: US Spent $8.4 T L10Y, Rest Of NATO $3.8 T

 By Chris Marsh of Money: Inside and Out

Europe has to urgently find a solution to a depleted defence capability.

But how much should Europe be looking to spend on the military? It’s useful to begin by considering how much neglect there has been in recent years.

A decade of underspend

Consider NATO official figures on defense spending.

Since 2014, in the aggregate NATO countries have spent around 2.5% of GDP on defense. But this is largely because the US spends closer to 3.5% of GDP (and is the largest country in economic terms.) Europe and Canada combined spent only 1.5% of GDP for most of the past decade—only increasing to 2% of GDP in 2024.

Looking at the large European countries, the UK has spent more than 2% of GDP throughout whereas, until recently, Germany consistently spent below 1.5% of GDP and France just below 2% of GDP. Italy and Spain (not shown) typically spend less than Germany.

Stock versus flows

Much of the discussion about increasing defense spending in light of recent geopolitical developments fails to acknowledge that this protracted under-spend has left a stock problem — a depleted stock of weapons, other hardware, and technology; but also gaps in operational capacity, full spectrum battlefield capability, and personnel.

As such, while increasing defense spending today is welcome, it will only fill the “stock” gap slowly.

Consider the cumulative underspend by NATO countries over the past decade relative to the 2% target and relative to US spending in % of GDP. Data provided by NATO only begins in 2014. This is shown in the chart below.

  • Germany’s shortfall to 2% is largest in absolute terms and adds up to above EUR200bn, Italy about EUR150bn, etc. The aggregate shortfall for Europe is EUR850bn.

  • To reach further and “catch-up” with the US spending closer to 3.5% of GDP Germany would need to spend an additional EUR550bn (or EUR800bn in total), Italy and France would need to spend above EUR400bn in total, and so on. The aggregate shortfall for Europe since 2014 exceeds EUR2,650bn.

This same shortfall can be measured relative to the latest GDP as in the next chart.

With the exceptions of Poland, Greece and Estonia, European countries are typically at least 10% of GDP behind compared to if their spending had matched the US—and this is closer to 20% in many cases.

Time to act

Of course, it doesn’t quite work like this.

Perhaps it could be argued the US is preparing for possible military action on two fronts at the same time—Europe and the Pacific. As such, US spending has to go further.

In addition, a cumulative past spending shortfall might be made up without a one-for-one spending today—alternatively the hurdle to technological catch-up is so great that more may be needed. A military expert would need to break this down.

The point is, the discussion about increased defense spending appears to be focused on correcting the existing flow shortfall—rather than addressing the stock, or capability challenges due to past neglect.

Still, over the past decade the US has spent USD8.4 trillion on defense. The rest of NATO? USD3.8 trillion.

So the United States has spent more that double the rest of NATO since 2014. If the US has stepped out of the alliance, de facto or de jure, what spending need to fill the capability gap?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/can-europe-ever-catch-defense-spending-us-spent-84-trillion-past-decade-rest-nato-just

'Egg producers accused of raising prices to profit on bird-flu mania'

 Egg producers blame the bird flu outbreak for driving prices to record highs, but critics believe giant companies are taking advantage of their market dominance to profit handsomely at the expense of budget-conscious egg buyers.

Advocacy groups, Democratic lawmakers and a Federal Trade Commission member are calling for a government investigation after egg prices spiked to a record average of $4.95 per dozen this month.

The Trump administration did unveil a plan this week to combat bird flu, but how much that might ease egg prices — a key driver of inflation — remains to be seen.

Chickens stand in a henhouse at Sunrise Farms on February 18, 2025 in Petaluma, California.Getty Images

“Donald Trump promised to lower food prices on ‘Day One’, but with egg prices skyrocketing out of control, he fired the workers charged with containing bird flu. Working families need relief now,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in a statement.

What’s behind the record egg prices?

The industry, and most experts, squarely blame bird flu. More than 166 million birds have been slaughtered to contain the virus.

Some 30 million egg layers have been wiped out just since January, significantly disrupting egg supplies. The Department of Agriculture’s longstanding policy has been to kill entire flocks anytime the virus is found on a farm.

As a result, the number of egg layers has dropped nationwide by about 12% from before the outbreak to 292 million birds, according to a Feb. 1 USDA estimate, but another 11 million egg layers have been killed since then, so it’s likely worse.

When prices spiked to $4.82 two years ago and prompted initial calls for price gouging probes, the flock was above 300 million.

“This has nothing to do with anything other than bird flu. And I think to suggest anything else is a misreading of the facts and the reality,” American Egg Board President Emily Metz said.

“Our farmers are in the fight of their lives, period, full stop. And they’re doing everything they can to keep these birds safe,” Metz said. “This is a supply challenge. Due to bird flu. Nothing else.”

Cashier Josh Jimenez rings up egg for sale at a grocery store on Friday, Feb. 7, 2025, in Dallas.AP

Farm Action suspects monopolistic behavior. The group that lobbies on behalf of smaller farmers, consumers and rural communities notes that egg production is only down about 4% from last year and some 7.57 billion table eggs were produced last month, yet some consumers are still finding egg shelves empty at their local grocery stores.

“Dominant egg corporations are blaming avian flu for the price hikes that we’re seeing. But while the egg supply has fallen only slightly, these companies profits have soared,” said Angela Huffman, Farm Action’s president. The Justice Department acknowledged receiving the group’s letter calling for an investigation but declined to comment on it.

The fact that a jury ruled in 2023 that major egg producers used various means to limit the domestic supply of eggs to increase the price of products during the 2000s only adds to the doubts about their motives now.

What do the numbers show?

Retail egg prices had generally remained below $2 per dozen for years before this outbreak began. Prices have more than doubled since then, boosting profits for egg producers even as they deal with soaring costs.

Most of the dominant producers are privately held companies and don’t release their results. But the biggest, Cal-Maine Foods, which supplies about 20% of the nation’s eggs, is public, and its profits increased dramatically. Cal-Maine reported a $219 million profit in the most recent quarter when its eggs sold for an average of $2.74 per dozen, up from just $1.2 million in the quarter just before this outbreak began in early 2022 when its eggs were selling for $1.37 per dozen.

Sherman Miller, Cal-Maine’s president and CEO, said in reporting the numbers that higher market prices “have continued to rise this fiscal year as supply levels of shell eggs have been restricted due to recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza.”

Workers pack cartons of eggs at Sunrise Farms on February 18, 2025 in Petaluma, California.Getty Images

But he said Cal-Maine also sold significantly more eggs — some 330 million dozens, up from 288 million the year before — in the quarter because demand is so strong and Cal-Maine has made a number of acquisitions. Cal-Maine also suffered few outbreaks on its farms, outside of a couple facilities in Kansas and Texas. The Mississippi-based company didn’t respond to calls from The Associated Press.

What about production costs?

Economists and analysts say the record egg prices aren’t a sure sign of something nefarious, and short-term profits might only last until farms get hit.

Once a flock is slaughtered, it can take as long as a year to clean a farm and raise new birds to egg-laying age.

The USDA pays farmers for every bird killed, but it doesn’t cover all the costs for farmers as they go without income.

“The consumer, I think, will probably feel like they’re getting the rough end of the stick. But I guarantee you, the farmers that are having to depopulate the barns, they’re having a rougher time,” CoBank analyst Brian Earnest said.

Inflation in the costs of feed and fuel and labor have contributed to rising egg prices, and farmers have been investing in biosecurity measures to help keep the virus away. So production costs also appear to be at an all-time high, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index.

“This isn’t a case where they’re taking the price up to gouge the market. It is the price is going up through auction at wholesale. And they’re benefiting from higher prices because supplies are tight,” University of Arkansas agricultural economist Jada Thompson said.

https://nypost.com/2025/03/02/us-news/egg-producers-accused-of-raising-prices-to-profit-on-bird-flu-mania/

Steak ‘n Shake says they’ve ‘RFK’d’ their fries — and are opting for healthier cooking method

 There’s a kitchen shakeup at an American fast-food chain. 

Steak ‘n Shake has announced a major change to its beloved shoestring fries, and they say the inspiration partially came straight from the new Trump administration’s Health and Human Services Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Starting in March, all Steak ‘n Shake locations will cook their fries in beef tallow instead of vegetable oil. The company broke the news on with a post declaring; “By March 1 ALL locations. Fries will be RFK’d!”

Steak ‘n Shake’s Chief Operations Officer, Daniel Edwards, joined “Fox & Friends” Thursday to talk about the change, saying the company had been considering the switch for some time.

“We’ve actually been thinking about this for a while. Our owner, my boss, is a man named Sardar Biglari,” Edwards said. “He called me one time and said you know, ‘Why should Europeans have better fries than Americans?’”

Steak ‘n Shake locations will cook their fries in beef tallow instead of vegetable oil beginning in March.jetcityimage – stock.adobe.com

Edwards explained that Biglari’s love for beef tallow fries started when he visited Belgium as a child, where he had what he called the best fries of his life.

That memory stuck with him, and for years, he wanted Steak ‘n Shake to capture that same taste.

Now, thanks to a new supplier capable of meeting their beef tallow needs, the chain is making the leap.

“We found a supplier that could finally do that for us, and he said ‘We got to do it, we got to do it everywhere.’ And so, we did,” Edwards said. “We RFK’d our fries.”

“We RFK’d our fries,” Steak ‘n Shake’s Chief Operations Officer, Daniel Edwards, said about the switch to cooking with beef tallow.Steak 'n Shake

Secretary Kennedy has been a vocal advocate for using beef tallow in cooking, often arguing that seed oils, commonly used in fast food, may contribute to rising obesity rates. 

While the science of that claim is still up for debate, with the American Heart Association stating there’s “no reason” to avoid seed oils, Steak ‘n Shake believes the switch is about more than just health.

Secretary Kennedy has advocated for the use of beef tallow in cooking, arguing that seed oils, found in fast food, may contribute to rising obesity rates. FRANCIS CHUNG/POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

“They’re so much better,” Edwards said, arguing customers will notice a major difference in the new fries.

“These fries are cooked in beef tallow – it’s crispier, it’s golden brown, it’s absolutely delicious,” he said. “You’re going to love them when you try them. You’re not going to want to ever go back to the old way of doing fries. And it’s the authentic way, the original way.”

The company is betting that its back-to-basics approach will win over customers looking for that rich, old-school flavor. 

https://nypost.com/2025/03/02/business/steak-n-shake-says-theyve-rfkd-their-fries-opted-for-healthier-cooking/