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Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Centene withdraws 2025 earnings guidance amid marketplace risk adjustment issues

 Health insurer Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC), a prominent player in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry with $153 billion in annual revenue, announced Tuesday it is withdrawing its 2025 earnings guidance due to significant marketplace risk adjustment challenges and increased Medicaid costs.

The company cited preliminary data from independent actuarial firm Wakely covering 22 of its 29 Health Insurance Marketplace states, representing about 72% of Centene’s marketplace membership. Analysis of this data revealed lower-than-expected market growth and significantly higher market morbidity than Centene had assumed in its previous guidance.

This discrepancy is expected to reduce Centene’s full-year net risk adjustment revenue transfer by approximately $1.8 billion, translating to an adjusted diluted earnings per share impact of about $2.75. The company has not yet provided estimates for its remaining seven marketplace states but anticipates additional reductions.

Centene also reported a "step-up" in Medicaid medical cost trends, particularly in behavioral health, home health, and high-cost drugs. These increases were more pronounced in specific states like New York and Florida. As a result, the company expects its second-quarter 2025 Medicaid Health Benefits Ratio to exceed first-quarter figures.

On a positive note, Centene indicated its Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Plan businesses are performing better than expected in the second quarter of 2025. The company also reported continued strong expense management relative to revenue growth.

In response to the marketplace challenges, Centene has begun refiling its 2026 marketplace rates to reflect higher projected baseline morbidity. The company expects to implement corrective pricing actions for 2026 in states representing a majority of its marketplace membership.

Centene plans to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 25, according to the press release statement.

https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/centene-withdraws-2025-guidance-amid-marketplace-risk-adjustment-issues-93CH-4120089

' 'Lucrative' business deals help sustain Israel's Gaza campaign, human rights lawyer says'

 A U.N. human rights lawyer has named over 60 companies, including major arms manufacturers and technology firms, in a report alleging their involvement in supporting Israeli settlements and military actions in Gaza, which she called a "genocidal campaign." 

Italian human rights lawyer Francesca Albanese, U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, compiled the report based on over 200 submissions from states, human rights defenders, companies, and academics.  Israel and the United States disengaged from the Council earlier this year, citing bias against Israel.

The report, published late Monday, calls for companies to cease dealings with Israel and for legal accountability for executives implicated in alleged violations of international law.  

"While life in Gaza is being obliterated and the West Bank is under escalating assault, this report shows why Israel’s genocide continues: because it is lucrative for many," Albanese wrote in the 27-page document. She accused corporate entities of being "financially bound to Israel’s apartheid and militarism."  

Israel’s mission in Geneva said the report was "legally groundless, defamatory and a flagrant abuse of her office". The Israeli prime minister’s office and the foreign office did not immediately return requests for comment.

The U.S. mission to the United Nations in New York called on U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to condemn Albanese and call for her removal, adding that "the lack of such action to date has enabled Ms. Albanese to pursue her campaign of economic warfare targeting entities across the world."

Israel has rejected accusations of genocide in Gaza, citing its right to self-defense following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages, according to Israeli figures.

The subsequent war in Gaza has killed more than 56,000 people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, and reduced the enclave to rubble.

ARMS FIRMS NAMED IN REPORT

The report groups the companies by sector, for example military or technology, and does not always make clear if they are linked to settlements or the Gaza campaign. It said around 15 companies responded directly to Albanese’s office but did not publish their replies.

It names arms firms such as Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) and Leonardo, alleging their weaponry has been used in Gaza. It also lists heavy machinery suppliers Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) and HD Hyundai (OTC:HYMTF), claiming their equipment has contributed to property destruction in Palestinian territories.

"Foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions. Discussions about those sales are best addressed by the U.S. government," said a spokesperson for Lockheed Martin.

None of the other companies immediately responded to Reuters’ requests for comment. Caterpillar has previously stated it expects its products to be used in line with international humanitarian law.

Technology giants Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and IBM (NYSE:IBM) were named as "central to Israel’s surveillance apparatus and the ongoing Gaza destruction." 

Alphabet has previously defended its $1.2 billion cloud services contract with the Israeli government, stating it is not directed at military or intelligence operations. 

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) was also mentioned for providing AI tools to the Israeli military, though specifics on their use were not included. 

The report expands on a previous U.N. database of firms linked to Israeli settlements, last updated in June 2023, adding new companies and detailing alleged ties to the ongoing Gaza conflict. 

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: UN Special Rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese gives a press conference at the UN City in Copenhagen, Denmark February 5, 2025.   Ritzau Scanpix/Ida Marie Odgaard via REUTERS/File Photo

It will be presented to the 47-member U.N. Human Rights Council on Thursday. Although the Council lacks legally binding powers, cases documented by U.N. investigations have occasionally informed international prosecutions.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/lucrative-business-deals-help-sustain-israels-gaza-campaign-un-expert-says-4118935

     

The Plot to Get RFK

 An apparent leaked minutes document suggests that a trade association held a meeting in April to undo the confirmation of Kennedy by the duly elected US Senate. It is embedded below. 

Caveat and Clarification

All references to individuals, statements, or actions attributed in the leaked minutes of the BIO Vaccine Policy Steering Committee meeting held on April 3, 2025, should be understood as excerpts from an internal document that has not been publicly authenticated by the named parties. These statements represent the content of the document as obtained and published, and do not constitute confirmed factual claims about the intent, conduct, or positions of any individual mentioned. The document reflects the internal framing and strategy of BIO and is presented here for the public to assess, interpret, and investigate. Readers are encouraged to seek independent confirmation, request public statements from the individuals involved, and draw conclusions based on full context and corroborating evidence. The document was received anonymously by whistleblowers and provided to Popular Rationalism for public analysis. Its provenance is under review.

On the eve before the US Senate reconvenes, a detailed secret trade-association memo plotting the removal of US Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has leaked. It reads like a coup attempt against regulatory reform—and they are spending millions to make sure Kennedy is out of office by September.

It seems that the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO), whose membership includes Pfizer, Merck, Novavax, Vaxcyte, and hundreds of biotech firms that profit from regulatory insulation, has a mole. This article critiques the documented lobbying behavior of the trade group BIO, not the internal operations or clinical data of its member corporations.

When the nation’s leading pharmaceutical trade group convenes a closed-door strategy meeting and openly discusses the need to “go to The Hill and lobby that it is time for RFK Jr. to go,” the issue is no longer health policy—it is democratic integrity.

According to the apparent leaked minutes, verified by the name of the creator of the file, on April 3, 2025, BIO held a “Vaccine Policy Steering Committee” (VPSC) meeting whose internal summary, soon to be publicly available thanks to whistleblowers, reveals a campaign of strategic deception, institutional capture, and psychological warfare and exposes a campaign of institutional deception, investor protection, and coordinated sabotage of the MAHA reform platform.

According to the leaked document, titled “BIO Vaccine Policy Steering Committee – April 3, 2025”, BIO has committed $2 million—half of its cash reserve—to counter what it calls the “threat” posed by Kennedy’s rise. But this is no ordinary PR push. It is a multi-pronged campaign designed to deceive the public, silence dissent, and preserve industry dominance through influence operations masquerading as science.

The Plot Exposed 

The document opens with a blunt political calculation: Kennedy’s candidacy threatens investor confidence, regulatory predictability, and the long-term viability of the vaccine business. BIO leadership in the apparent leaked document states plainly: “It is time to go to The Hill and lobby that it is time for RFK Jr to go.”

To achieve this, according to the document, BIO intends to deploy surrogates across the political spectrum, co-opt conservative influencers, and bypass direct engagement with the Kennedy campaign altogether. Among the figures named as potential allies in this covert effort: Dr. Mehmet Oz, former Senator Richard Burr (former Senator NC; Advisor DLA Piper Health Policy Steering Committee), Senator Bill Cassidy (in a section of the document focused on strategic influencer engagement and legislative positioning), and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). These individuals and institutions, the memo suggests, can provide a veneer of bipartisan legitimacy to BIO’s core aim: neutralize Kennedy without ever addressing the substance of his critique.

Follow the Money 

The most revealing detail is that $2 million—precisely half of BIO’s entire $4 million reserve—has been allocated to vaccine communications, specifically a D.C.-area pilot campaign called “Why We Vaccinate.” The purpose is not education, but behavioral influence: to combine “inspire and frighten” tactics in order to manipulate public sentiment and legislative behavior.

Internal documents state clearly that the campaign’s goal is to appeal to the “movable middle” using emotionally charged messaging, capitalizing on fear messaging tied to national security, workforce resilience, and economic productivity.

Why such an aggressive push? Because, as Vaxcyte COO Jim Wassil apparently warned, “investors have stated they are leaving until the next data readout,” citing Kennedy’s “unpredictability” as a systemic disruption to the vaccine capital pipeline.

Given Kennedy’s demand for restored liability, long-term data, and placebo-controlled trials, BIO appears to view Kennedy’s proposals as a threat to the entire shortcut pipeline BIO built under EUA conditions.

BIO’s fear is not scientific opposition—it’s that Kennedy’s regulatory scrutiny may render their current profit model obsolete. “According to the document’s summary, one participant expressed concern that Investors are sitting on the sidelines for the next 6–9 months. Capital has fled the vaccine sector, and Kennedy’s reform agenda is making it difficult for pharma executives to assure investors that the regulatory terrain remains exploitable.

As a reminder, these statements are drawn from the contents of an internal memo that has not been publicly confirmed by the named individuals. Interpretations remain provisional.

Hijacking Language 

The VPSC meeting wasn’t just about funding. It was also about redefining language. BIO officials emphasized a shift in framing—from “protect,” “defend,” and “maintain” to “streamline,” “optimize,” and “enhance.”

But these are not reforms. They read as an attempt at narrative laundering operations. When BIO says “efficiency,” it means fewer safety requirements. When it says “resilience,” it means consumer obedience, not protection from harms from vaccines held to the Kennedy Bar. And when it says “transparency,” it means secretive PR-managed theater, not data disclosure.

This is rhetorical mimicry—a deliberate tactic to adopt the aesthetic of reform while preserving the machinery of capture. This differs from standard PR in that it aims to overwrite language itself: ‘transparency’ is redefined as brand polish; ‘efficiency’ as exemption from oversight—a deliberate attempt to steal the language of biomedical reform while ensuring that no structural reform ever occurs—and no one notices the difference.

Divide and Conquer 

BIO’s strategic calculus is unmistakable: avoid confronting RFK, Jr. head-on and instead flood the surrounding narrative space with surrogate voices engineered to appear neutral, authoritative, and scientifically grounded.

The April 3 memo explicitly recommends targeting “Makary and Trump Insiders vs RFK, Jr.,” signaling an intention to bypass public debate in favor of internal triangulation. Within this framework, Dr. Mehmet Oz is floated as a potential “public health voice of reason within WH,” praised for his healthcare credentials and presumed credibility with conservative audiences.

While no specific action is proposed, the implication is clear—the document suggests BIO may aim to elevate Oz as a counterweight to Kennedy’s reform agenda by leveraging his media fluency and perceived scientific legitimacy to repackage industry talking points under the guise of responsible governance. This is not policy—it’s psychological misdirection through proxy, as the document implies.

The document also names AEI as a “trusted” conduit for pro-vaccine messaging, with Scott Gottlieb calling the MAHA movement a “cover for an anti-vaccine campaign.” It floats Dr. Oz as a possible public face of White House-aligned medical messaging. It outlines plans to use conservative constituents and influencers not to question BIO’s agenda, but to normalize it among skeptics.

Nowhere in the document is there any serious discussion of scientific debate. Nowhere is there a plan to confront Kennedy’s actual policy proposals—such as the Kennedy Bar, which calls for preclinical safety testing, raw data publication, long-term health tracking, and restoration of manufacturer liability. Instead, BIO’s plan is to erase Kennedy’s credibility through managed optics and surrogate deployment.

Fear of the Public

BIO’s own admissions reveal the true motive behind this campaign: fear. Not of disease, but of regulatory disruption. With RFK, Jr. and Commissioner Makary and team tightening standards, BIO executives are alarmed that predictable, post-market surveillance standards are expected to be enforced—and with them, the rapid market influence leverage built during Operation Warp Speed. Behind this campaign: fear. Not of disease, but of accountability.

Novavax, Merck, and Vaxcyte executives appear to express concern over ACIP’s new caution, the FDA’s slow-walking of approvals, and the crumbling of once-reliable regulatory shortcuts. With Kennedy and Commissioner Makary tightening the reins, BIO fears it can no longer exploit the revolving door between industry and agency.

One quote in particular encapsulates the panic: “They keep moving the goalposts on vaccines.”

This is simply not true. The goalposts aren’t moving. For the first time in decades, they are being reinstalled on the actual playing field of science, safety, and consent.

Why September Matters 

Though the leaked memo from BIO’s Vaccine Policy Steering Committee never names September outright, its entire architecture reveals a timeline racing toward it. September marks a convergence point—political, narrative, and financial—where BIO knows it must have reshaped the battlefield or risk losing control of it entirely. 

By then, Congress will be back in full session after its summer recess, and the fiscal year will near its end, placing vaccine policy, public health budgets, and FDA funding under the spotlight. Appropriations negotiations are not neutral in this climate—they are leverage points. If RFK, Jr. maintains or grows his influence through the summer, BIO faces the real possibility that reformist voices could restrict their easy funding pipelines, delay regulatory approvals, or demand hearings that expose industry-government entanglements.

September is also the reopening of the American schools – and the media mind. Fall marks the relaunch of political programming, the release of think tank policy reports, and the return of the elite opinion economy. BIO’s $2 million “Why We Vaccinate” campaign isn’t just a marketing push—it’s a narrative strike, timed to reassert emotional control over an audience emerging from summer’s distractions. They want to preempt Kennedy’s messaging before he dominates the fall discourse with facts, reform principles, and the moral clarity of a movement demanding consent.

Finally, September sets the tone for the next political cycle. Though national elections won’t be held until later, two House special elections will serve as bellwethers. Candidate filings, local endorsements, and policy positions will crystallize as donors and power brokers assess momentum. BIO knows it has a narrow window to discredit Kennedy before he becomes not just a candidate—but a coalition. That’s why the clock in the memo isn’t ticking toward November. It’s ticking toward September.

Global Implications 

BIO’s apparent plot is not isolated. If the leak is genuine, and it appears so far to be, it aligns with other suppression architectures: ESG-based financial pressure on corporations to support mandates, WHO treaty harmonization that threatens sovereign health policy, and social media and AI systems that algorithmically suppress dissent.

  • ESG-driven pharma score systems that reward coercive health mandates
  • WHO treaty harmonization that threatens national sovereignty
  • AI-based censorship systems that erase dissenting medical viewpoints

The April 3 memo must be read not just as a domestic political act, but as a nodal maneuver in a transnational agenda to control the terms of health, science, and consent.

One AEI-aligned strategist even claimed that MAHA was a ‘cover for an anti-vaccine campaign’—a telling attempt to delegitimize not arguments, but their right to exist. Pro-science is now anti-vaccine, and it has been for some time.

This isn’t a war against misinformation. It’s a war against public transparency in science. BIO fears Kennedy not because he is wrong, but because he has exposed the scaffolding of a regime that substitutes marketing for medicine. He has publicly pledged reforms that, if enacted, could disrupt the financial and regulatory relationships this memo appears to protect by requiring the firms actually follow the rules.

The $2 million smear campaign is not a show of strength. It is a confession of institutional fragility—a desperate gambit to buy time before the public finally demands the truth.

This is not a referendum on Kennedy. It is a referendum on whether regulatory science will serve the people or the shareholders.

And this time, the people have the receipts.



Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

For reprints, please set the canonical link back to the original Brownstone Institute Article and Author.


Author


Dr. James Lyons-Weiler is a research scientist and prolific author with over 55 peer-reviewed studies and three books to his name: Ebola: An Evolving Story, Cures vs. Profits, and The Environmental and Genetic Causes of Autism. He writes regularly on his Substack platform Popular Rationalism, where he shares scientific analyses, insights, and commentary, and contributes occasionally to The Defender published by Children’s Health Defense. He is Editori-in-Chief of Science, Public Health Policy & the Law.

Dr. Lyons-Weiler is the founder and CEO of the Institute for Pure and Applied Knowledge (IPAK), where he conducts and supports research in the public interest aimed at reducing human suffering. His work spans biomedical research, including vaccine safety science, genomics, bioinformatics, and cancer. He is also the founder of IPAK-EDU, an independent online educational platform offering rigorous science and health courses to the public.

FDA Exposed: Hundreds of Drugs Approved Without Proof They Work

 by quoth the raven

A Note From QTR

Coming into 2025, I was openly skeptical of Big Pharma’s direction, which is why I included a short position on PPH (Invesco Pharmaceutical ETF) in my “25 Stocks to Watch for 2025” list. YTD the ETF is underperforming the SPY by about 3.5%.

My conviction stemmed from the belief that much of the sector’s valuation was built not on true efficacy or transparency, but on regulatory capture, lobbying power, and narratives shaped more by marketing than data.

Over the past few years—especially in the wake of COVID—it became increasingly clear to me that anyone objectively analyzing the FDA and broader public health apparatus would see glaring gaps in oversight, transparency, and scientific rigor.

The pandemic cracked open a window into the inner workings of these institutions, revealing just how intertwined regulatory decisions and corporate interests had become.

That’s why I was vocal years ago in considering a short position on Moderna. Since that date, Moderna is down -85.7% vs. the S&P rising about 63%. I get a lot of shit wrong, but that call was not one of them.

It was easy: the evidence simply didn’t support the long-term safety and efficacy claims made about its mRNA vaccine, particularly as guidance shifted—now explicitly recommending against its use in pregnant women and children.

As the tide turns and empirical data becomes a requirement instead of an afterthought, I believe many next-gen platforms will face the same fate: no longer propped up by lobbying dollars but judged by clinical merit.

With RFK Jr. now at the helm of HHS, I continue to believe this shift is accelerating.

His push for regulatory reform and rejection of industry influence gives me confidence that true innovation—such as developments in psychedelics—will be rewarded. That’s why I still stand by my early 2025 positioning: short PPH, long psychedelics.

The article below reinforces that this trajectory isn’t just wishful thinking, and it’s why I’m happy to share it with you today.

FDA Exposed: Hundreds of Drugs Approved Without Proof They Work

By Maryanne Demasi, Brownstone Institute

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hundreds of drugs without proof that they work—and in some cases, despite evidence that they cause harm.

That’s the finding of a blistering two-year investigation by medical journalists Jeanne Lenzer and Shannon Brownleepublished by The Lever.

Reviewing more than 400 drug approvals between 2013 and 2022, the authors found the agency repeatedly ignored its own scientific standards.

One expert put it bluntly—the FDA’s threshold for evidence “can’t go any lower because it’s already in the dirt.”

A System Built on Weak Evidence

The findings were damning—73% of drugs approved by the FDA during the study period failed to meet all four basic criteria for demonstrating “substantial evidence” of effectiveness.

Those four criteria—presence of a control group, replication in two well-conducted trials, blinding of participants and investigators, and the use of clinical endpoints like symptom relief or extended survival—are supposed to be the bedrock of drug evaluation.

Yet only 28% of drugs met all four criteria—40 drugs met none.

These aren’t obscure technicalities—they are the most basic safeguards to protect patients from ineffective or dangerous treatments.

But under political and industry pressure, the FDA has increasingly abandoned them in favour of speed and so-called “regulatory flexibility.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-07-01/fda-exposed-hundreds-drugs-approved-without-proof-they-work

Takeover Begins: Robots Set To Outnumber Humans At Amazon Warehouses

 Amazon hasn't set a public date for fully replacing warehouse workers with robots, but all indicators suggest a gradual transition is well underway, with significant workforce reductions likely, alongside productivity gains driven by automation and AI through the 2030s.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon, the nation's second-largest private employer in the U.S., is quickly approaching a new milestone in warehouse automation: "There will soon be as many robots as humans." This equates to over a million robots. 

Roughly 75% of Amazon's deliveries are now assisted by robotic systems, which perform tasks such as picking, sorting, packaging, and moving items. The rapid integration of robots, such as the advanced Vulcan, marks a significant step toward full automation for fulfillment centers. 

"They're one step closer to that realization of the full integration of robotics," said Rueben Scriven, research manager at Interact Analysis, a robotics consulting firm.

The onboarding of automation has slowed Amazon's hiring. The average number of employees per facility has dropped to a 16-year low, and Amazon plans to reduce its total workforce in the coming years. 

Meanwhile, the number of packages that Amazon ships per employee has soared from 175 in 2015 to approximately 3,870 in recent months, indicating that automation has significantly supercharged the company's productivity gains. 

Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy said recently that AI will be integrated at fulfillment centers "to improve inventory placement, demand forecasting, and the efficiency of our robots."

"We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs," Jassy said in a memo to employees last month. "It's hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce."

All signs suggest Amazon has reached its employment peak.

To all the Amazon workers pushing to unionize—remember, the robots are coming for your jobs. This trend is accelerating and will persist through the 2030s. For a clearer picture of how many jobs AI will displace, see this 2023 Goldman report


China increases quota for foreign investment

 

  • The State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised the foreign-exchange quota for qualified domestic institutional investors to $170.9 billion at the end of June, from $167.8 billion, according to the agency's website.
  • The increase, widely anticipated by markets, comes as downward pressure on the yuan (USD:CNY) has eased amid a weaker U.S. dollar (DXY) and waning demand for foreign assets like U.S. stocks.

    The QDII program permits eligible domestic institutional investors to purchase overseas securities, bonds, and commodities within approved quotas.