Oil Stocks are Running on Fumes

 

Oil prices are falling, but oil stocks are not. That’s a great setup for short sellers and a terrible one for buyers.

According to data broker Statista, the breakeven price for most U.S. oil producers is between $61 and $70 per barrel. The current oil price is below that today. That means we are in the pain zone for oil producers.

The last time we saw oil prices this low was 2021:

Longtime natural resource investors know to buy when commodity prices fall. That’s when you can usually find bargains among the producers. But it requires patience. Commodity prices always lead the producers.

We saw that clearly in the mining sector over the past year. Gold prices soared, but it took a beat before investors moved into the miners. The setup in oil is the opposite.

Oil prices are now at four-year lows, but the stock prices aren’t down…yet. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is still within 9% of its 52-week high.

That’s not cheap:

The XLE fund holds a basket of the major oil companies. About 48% of the fund is in three major oil companies: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. It also owns refiners like Valero, pipelines like Kinder Morgan, and service companies like Schlumberger.

It is an excellent representation of the whole oil industry, which is why we use it as a bellwether for these stocks. When the market hates oil, the XLE collapses. When it loves oil, XLE soars.

In 2021, the oil price rose from $47 per barrel to peak around $82 per barrel. The XLE started the year at around $32 per share and peaked at $51 per share. The current price of XLE is 73% higher than the fund’s peak in 2021. And that was with oil prices at $82 per barrel…

That’s what we mean by stocks lagging commodity prices. In the chart above, the red line is oil prices. Throughout most of the year, oil prices performed better than XLE. Remember, these are stocks that profit from oil prices. They should outperform the commodity. And eventually, they do.

We will see the same thing going down. The commodity price fell 16% so far in 2025, but the stocks are up 5%:

But that doesn’t mean these stocks won’t go down. Oil is a cyclical market. The best opportunities come when there is blood in the spreadsheets. Blood as in declining profits. And we see that starting.

For example, ExxonMobil’s 2024 revenue was $339 billion. Its trailing 12-month revenue today is $329 billion. That’s down $10 billion or 3%. It’s not earth shaking yet. But it is like a rock hitting the windshield. That chip is going to spread. That’s what we expect to see in the oil stocks over the next couple of quarters.

These stocks are holding up because the market doesn’t believe oil prices will remain low. But they endured underwhelming returns over the past two years. The XLE rose just 2% in the past year and 9% in the past two years.

That means money invested in the Dow Industrial average outperformed XLE by double digits (it’s up 13% in the past year and 46% in two years). That means the biggest stodgiest stocks in the market lapped XLE investors. That must sting a bit.

Investors should be heading out. The catalyst will be fourth quarter earnings. When these companies must report earnings that miss expectations, we will see investors move money to other sectors. And if oil prices remain low through the start of 2026, the rout will be on.

That adds up to more downside risk than upside potential right now. If you like to short stocks, the oil producers look ripe for the picking.

We won’t start looking at oil stocks until the XLE breaks through $70 per share. It needs a major correction before we go long.

Matt Badiali is the editor of the S&A Resource Report, a monthly advisory focused on investments in energy, metals, and other natural resources.

https://dailyreckoning.com/oil-stocks-are-running-on-fumes/

Euro Billionaires Funneled $2B Via Transatlantic NGO Net To Erode U.S. Democracy, Fund Anti-Trump Protests

 A new bombshell report by Americans for Public Trust (APT), based on IRS Form 990s and media reports, reveals that five foreign "charities" have funneled nearly $2 billion into American leftist nonprofits, injecting what can only be described as a far-left extremist European policy agenda and toxic social-engineering campaigns into U.S. institutions like cancer. The report alleges that these foreign influence operations, exploiting the dark webs of the NGO world, also bankroll part of the protest industrial complex that has waged an ongoing color-revolution-style operation against President Trump, his supporters, and seeks to dismantle the Make America Great Again movement.

APT's 31-page analysis (first revealed on Fox News), backed by grant records, shows that while foreign nationals can't directly donate to U.S. political candidates, there is an alarming interconnected web of transatlantic funding networks into the NGO world where foreign billionaires bankroll American far-left nonprofits to unleash all sorts of activist campaigns. This unchecked foreign philanthropy risks undermining U.S. sovereignty, and according to APT Executive Director Caitlin Sutherland, who told Fox News, "foreign money is coming in, and it's trying to erode our democracy."

Here are the five foreign funders outlined in the report:  

1. Quadrature Climate Foundation (UK) – $530 million

2. KR Foundation (Denmark) – $36 million

3. Oak Foundation (Switzerland) – $750 million

4. Laudes Foundation (Switzerland) – $20 million

5. Children's Investment Fund Foundation (UK) – $553 million

The key findings are shocking:

Quadrature Climate Foundation (QCF): Founded in 2019 by hedge-fund billionaires Greg Skinner and Suneil Setiya. Has given roughly $530 million to 41 U.S. groups, including ClimateWorks Foundation ($147 M), Growald Climate Fund ($80 M), Grantham Foundation ($80 M), Windward Fund ($49 M), and Sunrise Project ($36 M). QCF also funds controversial solar-geoengineering research and "climate litigation and regulation advocacy."

KR Foundation: Danish climate charity tied to the Carlsberg family. Has provided $36 million to 53 U.S. groups backing climate litigation, ESG advocacy, and fossil-fuel divestment. Major recipients include Center for International Environmental Law ($1.4 M), Conservation Law Foundation ($0.4 M), Oil Change International ($2.2 M), and Fossil Free Media ($1 M). It even funded The Associated Press ($300 K) for climate-related programming.

Oak Foundation: Swiss-based trust founded by British billionaire Alan Parker. Gave >$750 million to 152 U.S. groups advancing "climate justice" and lawsuits against fossil-fuel firms.

Key recipients include:

• Environmental Law Institute ($650 K, creator of the Climate Judiciary Project)

• Community Change ($1.6 M, linked to Free DC protests)

• Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors ($108 M)

• New Venture Fund ($67 M)

• NRDC ($6.5 M)

• Tides Center ($8.2 M)

Laudes Foundation: Established in 2020 by the secretive Brenninkmeijer family (C&A clothing empire). Has sent $20 million to 17 U.S. groups promoting ESG disclosure, "climate-friendly diets," and equity mandates. Largest grants: Pulitzer Center ($3.7 M) for climate-justice reporting, Ceres ($1.7 M), Community Initiatives ($1 M), and World Resources Institute ($2.8 M).

Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF): Run by British hedge-fund billionaire Sir Christopher Hohn. Sent $553 million to 39 U.S. entities before pledging in late 2025 to halt U.S. funding after APT's exposure.

Key recipients include:

• Energy Foundation China ($70 M) — under House investigation for links to former CCP officials

• Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development ($25 M)

• Environmental Defense Fund ($17 M)

• Sunrise Project ($36 M)

ATP points out that these funding flows exploit gaps in U.S. oversight laws, which prohibit foreign election donations but allow influence through 501(c)(3) and 501(c)(4) organizations. Through the nonprofit world, foreign billionaires can conduct foreign influence operations through leftist nonprofits, including funding protest industrial complex against Trump, get-out-the-vote drives, anti-Trump ads, lobbying, and whatever else.

Sutherland said, "There's not a question about where it's going and where it is coming from. We know that it's foreign money coming into our U.S. policy fights, climate litigation, research, protests, lobbying, you name it". 

Besides funding anti-Trump protests, Sutherland warned about one very alarming use of the dark European money that flowed from the Oak Foundation into a group called Community Change. "They are the front group that has led the charge against Trump's crackdown on crime. So again, we're seeing where foreign money coming in to protest, litigation, training is ending up," she noted. 

"It seems clear to me that this foreign money is coming into the United States because they want to implement their extremist European vision for America," Sutherland concluded. "And it seems to me that when you take a look at the money, they just want to have a more extreme United States that is radicalized and further left than what we want."

The pattern of foreign foundations exporting nation-destroying far-left policies into the U.S., funding protests (and possibly even riots), and working to dismantle President Trump's agenda, chosen by the American people, serves as an urgent wake-up call for Republicans about the unchecked flow of foreign philanthropy pouring billions into the dark NGO world.

APT is urging policymakers to fix this absolute mess by:

• Close FARA loopholes;

• Require foreign-funded nonprofits to disclose sources;

• Consider banning foreign financing of politically active 501(c)(4)s;

• Investigate whether foreign charities violated U.S. law through advocacy or litigation.

What's clear is that it's not just European billionaires exploiting America's NGO network ... it's happening from around the world, from Latin American Marxists to Communist China. It's as if globalists and the Democratic Party are weaponizing nonprofits in a coordinated effort to undermine President Trump's agenda, with the ultimate goal of regime change.

Remember this...

What's clear is that the Trump administration should pivot from Antifa focus to now cleaning up the NGO world - and we'll make it easy for those White House staffers (see the tweet above) and also there's a foreign influence angle. On the other side of the world, there’s Neville Roy Singham's NGO network, and perhaps Rubio at State would be interested in investigating Marxist foreign influence operations originating from Latin America as well.  

* * * 

Full Report:

So much for these protests being "organic" ...

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/european-billionaires-funneled-2-billion-transatlantic-ngo-network-erode-us-democracy 

NYC dog dealers illegally selling puppies for thousands of dollars out of car trunk

 Gotham needs some ‘paw’ and order.

Shady dog dealers are illegally selling puppies out of the trunk of a Mercedes SUV for thousands of dollars, The Post has learned.

At least two men were caught on video Oct. 23 and posted on TikTok brazenly hawking close to a dozen miniature and toy poodles in broad daylight in the Diamond District — despite the state banning dog sales and the city outlawing backyard breeding last year.

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This video taken October 23 shows two men hawking newborn puppies of the trunk of a car in Midtown Manhattan.TikTok/@isacsavage

“You can probably get $3,500 to $4,500 for the dog,” barks one of the men to about eight people gathered around the car on West 47th Street.

“Because they’re going to be so small,” said the pooch peddler, dressed in black, about the price. “They got everything – they got shots,” he said of the tiny 9-week-old pups packed in the back of the SUV, which had sawdust spread around the trunk.

“They’re almost – they’re basically going to be teacups,” he bragged about the cuddly merchandise. “Because this is considered a toy.”

The man also boasted the puppies were AKC certified – a designation from the American Kennel Club that recognizes a dog as purebred.

The men popped up on more than one occasion. On Oct. 17, a Post reporter witnessed the men plying their trade at the same spot on West 47th Street between 5th and 6th Avenues around 2 pm.

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At least eight puppies are seen in the video in the trunk of the SUV.TikTok/@isacsavage

Some eyewitnesses were horrified.

“I couldn’t look at them, it just made me so sad,” said one passerby and animal lover.

“This is 100% illegal,” Allie Taylor, President of Voters for Animal Rights told The Post. “That’s why we passed the backyard breeder bill, because we knew that going after pet stores wasn’t going to be enough – that there were multiple sources where people were getting dogs from.”

The truck sales have been going on since at least the summer.

A white Mercedes SUV with no license plates was spotted on Canal Street and Broadway on Aug. 1, in a photo shared on Facebook.

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An identical-looking Mercedes SUV with puppies in the trunk was spotted on Canal Street in August.Facebook/NYC & LI DOGS THAT NEED RESCUE

“Absolutely horrible,” raged the anonymous social media poster, who said the puppies looked “sick” and that they called police.

The NYPD did not answer The Post’s question about the August incident.

An Instagram video shared the next day by the account New Yorkers showed the same puppies in a shopping cart on Canal Street, amid a sea of knock-off Saint-Laurent and Goyard wallets.

“Yo, Canal’s anything,” a man is heard saying in the video. “Buddy got dogs for sale. You heard on Canal Street. Buddy got dogs on Canal Street for sale. I swear you could buy anything from here.”

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The puppies were filmed in a shopping cart being taken on busy Canal Street for sale.Instagram/@1chafe

Last December, the Empire State’s Puppy Mill Pipeline Act outlawed the sale of dogs, cats and rabbits from stores, which were considered brokers or dealers for puppy mills. Since then, New Yorkers can only buy dogs directly from a responsible breeder – or adopt from a shelter.

Brian Shapiro, New York State director of the nonprofit Humane World for Animals, said there’s a “probably zero” chance the trunk pups came from a responsible breeder.

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One of the men bragged about the puppies being “so small” to justify the price.TikTok/@isacsavage

“The concept of a consumer having faith that they’re bringing a well-bred safe animal into their home means knowing the background of the person who is selling the animal and where the animal was raised.”

“Guy rolls up in a car, pops the trunk, and there’s a bunch of puppies. That’s the furthest thing from a responsible breeder,” he slammed.

“There’s so much money involved, pet dealers and wannabe pet stores will find ways to try to push the system to try to be creative with the law.”

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One of the men in the video says most of the puppies were 9-weeks old.TikTok/@isacsavage

Shapiro said the AKC papers should not reassure anyone tempted to buy a trunk puppy.

“Any animal from the worst breeder can have AKC papers,” he said. “It means nothing.”

While no law explicitly prohibits selling out of a trunk, the NYC Health Code forbids selling any animal from residences and other unlicensed facilities, the ASPCA told The Post.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/01/us-news/ruff-trade-dog-dealers-illegally-selling-puppies-in-nyc-out-of-car-trunk/

SpaceX said to win $2B Golden Dome satellite deal

 SpaceX is on track to secure a $2 billion deal with the Pentagon to develop satellites capable of tracking missiles, as part of United States President Donald Trump's Golden Dome air defense project, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter.

The space exploration company owned by tech mogul and billionaire Elon Musk would be closely involved in the Pentagon's plans to build satellite networks used for transmitting important military information and tracking vehicles on the ground, the sources said. Earlier this year, Trump estimated that the Golden Dome would become operational by the end of his presidential term, adding that its total cost would be $175 billion.

The Pentagon refused to comment on the report, while SpaceX did not provide a response.

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/SpaceX-said-to-win-dollar2B-Golden-Dome-satellite-deal/65094521

Oman urges US, Iran to resume nuclear talks

 Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi called on the United States and Iran on Saturday to return to nuclear negotiations, months after talks were derailed by the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict in June.

"We want to return to the negotiations between Iran and the United States," Albusaidi said during the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain.

Oman, a traditional mediator between the two sides, hosted five rounds of nuclear talks this year before they were abruptly interrupted. "Just three days before the sixth and possibly decisive round of talks, Israel unleashed its bombs and missiles," Albusaidi said, calling the strikes an "illegal and deadly act of sabotage."

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Oman-urges-US-Iran-to-resume-nuclear-talks/65099472

Jordan, Germany back UN mandate for Gaza force

 Jordan and Germany called for a United Nations mandate to legitimize a proposed international stabilization force in Gaza.

The comments came during the IISS Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain, as world leaders discussed the implementation of US President Donald Trump's postwar governance plan for the war-torn territory. The force, envisioned under a US-brokered ceasefire, would train and support Palestinian police, secure Gaza's borders, and prevent arms smuggling.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said, "It has to have a Security Council mandate," though he clarified that Jordan would not deploy troops itself due to regional sensitivities. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul echoed the call, saying any deployment "would need a clear basis in international law."

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Jordan-Germany-back-UN-mandate-for-Gaza-force/65099356