For over a decade, he has aimed to redefine intentional dating in a world where social trends are moving the other way. He is stepping off the Hinge rocket, whose revenue could almost double from $550m last year to $1bn in 2027.

Match Group snapped it up before Covid to diversify its portfolio with an app "designed to be deleted." Hinge fits into the "anti-Tinder" lineage. No endless swiping; the app aims to foreground more personal connections.

As Tinder approaches maturity, users are turning away from the big platforms towards more specialized ones. Numerous niche platforms are finding audiences, such as Fitify Love for athletes, Feeld for nontraditional relationships, or Escape App, which fosters connections around shared hobbies. The pandemic accelerated this dynamic, reflecting a desire for fewer superficial interactions.

( Source: Business of Apps )

The fall

Since then, the market has clearly reduced the sector's stockmarket prospects. Valuations have tumbled. Match Group, which generates half of the sector's revenue, has seen its market cap divided by five since Covid... and recent results have shown no signs of a rebound.

In Q3, at Bumble, total paying users fell 16% y-o-y, to 3.6 million, meanwhile, at Match Group, the decline was around 5%, to 14.5 million. Management can thank Hinge, which offset the portfolio with a 17% increase.

Are dating apps over?

Yet the financials don't tell the whole story. Dating apps have likely done the hard work of achieving social acceptance. According to a 2024 Statista survey, over 360 million people worldwide use dating apps. Experts estimate that by 2030 more than half of new relationships will start online: this is already the case in the US.

Ten years ago, it was still hard to own a virtual meet-cute at the Christmas table without an uncle's teasing or an aunt's worried remarks. The example may be a bit forced, but it captures the cultural shift.

Socially, it still seems awkward to admit paying for these services. But for how long?

The landing?

According to a study conducted in Commonwealth countries and commissioned by Match Group, 91% of men and 95% of women say today's dating environment is harder than ever.

Let's say relationship preferences are becoming more personal and diverse. That makes building lasting relationships more complex.

To address these issues, Justin McLeod, Hinge's founder, is leaving his role as chairman to devote his time to Overtone, a dating app "focused on using AI and voice tools."

In his farewell letter to Hinge and introduction of Overtone, he lays out his vision: "Looking ahead to the future of dating, I believe we are at an inflection point where we can move beyond refining the existing model and completely reimagine how we address the persistent challenges that people who are dating face. This time, not because the current model is broken, but because the possibilities have expanded. AI, if used correctly, can help us invent an entirely new way for people to find their person - far more personal, far more efficient, and far more effective. Think less of a social platform and more of the experience of working with a top-tier personal matchmaker. A service that prioritizes knowing you - and everyone - so it can make carefully customized and polished introductions to people on your wavelength."

While some will think of the dystopian Black Mirror episode "Hang the DJ" (S4E4), others may see a response to a relational impasse. How far will McLeod be able to push his vision? We will find out in the years to come.

Meanwhile, MarketScreener analysts note that despite activist fund Elliott's entry into the capital and Laura Jones joining the compensation committee, Match still has not reduced generous stock-based compensation. Over the first nine months of fiscal 2025, it still represents half of net income.

That said, Match retains a unique position with a well-balanced portfolio: Tinder as the cash cow, Hinge as the prodigy - and now Overtone to test a new dating paradigm.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/the-man-shaping-the-future-of-dating-apps-ce7d50d2db89f120