Summary
Trump announces "productive" talks with Iran, "postpones" military strikes for 5 days
Iran Foreign Ministry + Parliament speaker say no talks have happened, after Trump said "speaking with a top person in Iran", says will "just keep bombing" if Iran talks fail
Trump says Hormuz will be "jointly controlled"; Russia and Pakistan step-up as potential mediators, engage with Tehran
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, an Israeli official said. US says Israel "will be pleased"
Iran publishes broad list of potential regional targets: threatens "the entire region will go dark."
IEA Executive Director warns of 1970s level oil shocks: "No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction." Russia mediates in call with Tehran.
Market response: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all off their kneejerk extremes as skepticism grows)
“The market woke up to some potentially good news,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We’re still living in a headline-driven market.”
The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th surged above 65% initially but have faded since, remaining above 50%...
“It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump ‘zig-zagging’ to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-plunges-stocks-spike-after-trumps-comments-iran
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