'Food for thought'

 by James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist

@WellingtonAltus

. PhD Econ

When Winston Churchill rose in Parliament in 1913 to defend shifting the Royal Navy from coal to oil, he anchored his case on a simple idea: “Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety, and in variety alone.” That same strategic instinct is now playing out on a global scale. Iran chose the opposite strategy and is paying for it. By weaponizing Hormuz and forcing Asian refiners to scramble, Tehran has driven empty VLCCs to the U.S. Gulf Coast and helped turn American crude into Asia’s de facto swing barrel. What was meant as a show of strength has instead accelerated diversification away from Iranian and broader Middle Eastern barrels, capping price spikes and hard‑wiring U.S. supply into the core of Asian energy security. This is a major strategic shift in the global oil market: the United States is now standing in the middle of the chessboard, dictating flow and price signals, and no, this is not the 1970s. Will U.S. barrels completely replace oil from the Strait of Hormuz? No, but Churchill’s logic still holds: a diversified system that keeps American oil and LNG at its center is not evidence that the U.S. is “losing” the Iran conflict, whatever the Doomers claim—it is proof that Tehran’s leverage is quietly being competed away.

https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/2043107307341378005