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Saturday, June 4, 2022

Oregon botched drug treatment plan tied to decriminalization

 Efforts to get millions of dollars in funding to treatment centers and related services as part of Oregon’s pioneering drug decriminalization have been botched even as drug addictions and overdoses increase, state officials and lawmakers said on Thursday.

Oregonians passed Ballot Measure 110 in 2020 decriminalizing possession of personal amounts of heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and other drugs — the first in the nation to do so. A person found with drugs receives a citation, like a traffic ticket, with the maximum $100 fine waived if they call a hotline for a health assessment.

The ballot measure redirected millions of dollars in tax revenue from the state’s legal marijuana industry to treatment. But applications for funding stacked up after state officials underestimated the work required to vet them and get the money out the door, officials testified Thursday before the House Interim Committee on Behavioral Health. Only a tiny fraction of the available funds has been sent.

“So clearly, if we were to do it over again, I would have asked for many more staff much quicker in the process,” said state Behavioral Health Director Steve Allen. “We were just under-resourced to be able to support this effort, underestimated the work that was involved in supporting something that looked like this and partly we didn’t fully understand it until we were in the middle of it.”

Allen, who works for the Oregon Health Authority, told lawmakers in the remote hearing that this $300 million project has never been done before. He insisted it has strong potential, saying officials have “over-relied on traditional treatment.”

“The service array, the types of services that are included, the approach, the harm reduction, etc., are all designed by people who have experienced this and have, I think, some really interesting, good ideas about what these service systems ought to look like,” he said. “So it’s an experiment. I think we’ll know more in a few years.”

Rep. Lily Morgan, a Republican from Grants Pass, said lives are being lost while the state waits for the ballot measure to have a positive effect.

“Director, you’ve mentioned a couple of times that you’re waiting to see, and yet we have overdoses increasing at drastic rates, in my community a 700% increase in overdoses and a 120% increase in deaths,” Morgan told Allen. “How long do we wait before we have an impact that we’re saving lives?”

Secretary of State Shemia Fagan appeared before the committee, and described her mother’s struggles with heroin and methamphetamine addiction before she recovered. Fagan said Oregon remains in a drug abuse crisis, despite the ballot measure.

“When the voters of Oregon passed Measure 110, we did so because it was a change of policy in Oregon to improve the lives of people, to improve our communities,” Fagan said. “And in the years since, we haven’t seen that play out. ... Instead, in many communities in Oregon, we’ve seen the problem with drug addiction get worse.”

Allen acknowledged there has been a “dramatic” increase in overdoses and overdose deaths statewide and attributed much of the cause to the recent arrival of methamphetamine laced with fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that is so powerful that a tiny amount can kill, and illicit pills containing fentanyl.

That adds urgency to the effort to provide treatment services and harm reduction, like medication to treat overdoses and needle exchanges, that the measure also pays for, he said. Advocates point out that the services are available to anyone in Oregon, not just those who were cited for possession.

“Getting these resources out to the community is incredibly important ... not just the harm reduction resources, but people who can support folks who are at risk for overdose,” Allen said. “So time is of the essence.”

Ian Green, an audits manager, said the ballot measure lacked clarity around roles of the health authority and the Oversight and Accountability Council that were established.

That “contributed to delays, confusions and strained relations,” Green said. He also blamed the health authority for not always adequately supporting the council. Council co-chair Ron Williams said most of the available funds still haven’t been released.

“I feel these challenges can be overcome and corrected with deliberate, intentional, focused effort and courageous, solution-oriented conversations,” Williams said.

The health authority said $40 million in funds have been disbursed.

But about $265 million set aside for the 2021-23 biennium still hasn’t been spent, said Devon Downeysmith, spokeswoman for the Health Justice Recovery Alliance. Hundreds of providers, which screen the needs of people who use drugs, offer case management, treatment, housing and links to other services, are waiting for those funds.


https://apnews.com/article/health-oregon-government-and-politics-drug-addiction-05269fb778d33e0355db17bb8539c34c

Abbott restarts baby formula plant linked to contamination

 Abbott Nutrition has restarted production at the Michigan baby formula factory that has been closed for months due to contamination, the company said Saturday, taking a step toward easing a nationwide supply shortage expected to persist into the summer.

The February shutdown of the largest formula factory in the country led to the supply problems that have forced some parents to seek formula from food banks, friends and doctor’s offices.

Abbott said it initially will prioritize production of its EleCare specialty formulas for infants with severe food allergies and digestive problems who have few other options for nutrition. The company said it will take about three weeks before new formula from the plant begins getting to consumers.

“We will ramp production as quickly as we can while meeting all requirements,” Abbott said in a statement.

The plant’s reopening is one of several federal actions that are expected to improve supplies in the weeks ahead. President Joe Biden’s administration has eased import rules for foreign manufacturers, airlifted formula from Europe and invoked federal emergency rules to prioritize U.S. production.

Abbott closed the Sturgis, Michigan, factory in February after the Food and Drug Administration began investigating four bacterial infections among infants who consumed powdered formula from the plant. Two of the babies died. The company continues to state that its products have not been directly linked to the infections, which involved different bacterial strains.

FDA inspectors eventually uncovered a host of violations at the plant, including bacterial contamination, a leaky roof and lax safety protocols. The FDA has faced intense scrutiny for taking months to close the plant and then negotiate its reopening. Agency leaders recently told Congress they had to enter a legally binding agreement with Abbott to assure all the problems were fixed.

Abbott’s February recall of several leading brands, including Similac, squeezed supplies that had already been strained by supply chain disruptions and stockpiling during COVID-19 shutdowns.

Youtube video thumbnail

The shortage has been most dire for children with allergies, digestive problems and metabolic disorders who rely on specialty formulas. The Abbott factory is the only source of many of those products, providing nutrition to about 5,000 U.S. babies, according to federal officials.

Abbott is one of just four companies that produce about 90% of U.S. formula. The company’s recalls and shutdown triggered a cascade of effects: Retailers have limited customer purchasing to conserve supplies and parents have been told to switch brands to whatever formula is in stock.

FDA Commissioner Robert Califf recently told lawmakers it could be about two months before formula supplies return to normal levels. The agency has waived many of its regulatory requirements to accept more formula from the United Kingdom, Australia and other nations.

U.S. manufacturers, including Reckitt and Gerber, have also stepped up production, running plants 24/7 and sourcing more formula from alternate facilities.

https://apnews.com/article/science-health-government-and-politics-407435d8bb7d8e0825a926139c0f9f20

Many hospitals don’t fully comply with price transparency rules

 A federal rule requiring hospitals to post prices online took effect a year and a half ago, but spotty data and noncompliance have meant the rule has yet to live up to its promise of lowering health care costs, employers and researchers say. 

Many hospitals still aren’t fully following the rule, and the federal government — despite threatening larger monetary penalties for noncompliance — still hasn’t issued any fines. 

In all, thousands of hospitals are estimated to not be fully complying with a part of the rule requiring they post troves of data online that include information on cash prices for services, rates negotiated with payers, and other information that can be helpful to researchers and people and businesses paying for health care. 

The data, which some had hoped would help drive down health care costs, has often been incomplete and difficult to decipher and compare to data from other hospitals. 

Among the common deficiencies are blank or missing data fields, not listing rates for all insurers or cash rates paid by the uninsured, providing inaccurate prices or listing payer names and not the associated plan names. 

“All of our members and many employers have been trying to make use of this and were looking forward to having this information,” said Bill Kramer, executive director for health policy at the Purchaser Business Group on Health, which advocates for private and public employers that buy health care. 

“But at this point, there are very, very few examples of success,” he said. 

The so-called “price transparency” rule, which took effect in January 2021 under the Trump administration, was intended to help consumers shop for care, increase competition and drive down prices, especially in heavily consolidated hospital markets. 

Partial compliance, but no fees yet

While most hospitals have been willing to follow parts of the rule — namely, a requirement that they post user-friendly lists or tools to help patients shop for services — they have been less compliant with a requirement that they post “machine readable” files of standard charges — data that experts say would be far more useful in driving down costs.

It’s not clear how many of the 6,000 hospitals across the U.S. are following the rules. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which enforces the rule, has been auditing a sample of hospitals since January 2021 and told CQ Roll Call that as of this month, it has issued about 352 warning notices for noncompliance. 

CMS has also issued 157 corrective action plan requests to hospitals that previously received warning notices but have not yet corrected deficiencies. Nearly 170 hospitals have received case closure notices after addressing previous citations. 

CMS has yet to issue any fines. 

“To date, each hospital that has come under compliance review has resolved its deficiencies, or is in the process of doing so,” said a CMS spokesperson in a statement. “Therefore, it has not been necessary for CMS to issue any penalties.” 

A series of studies of sampled hospitals has demonstrated the low compliance. For example, a March study of 89 children’s hospitals showed 51 percent omitted payer negotiated rates from their machine readable files, and 40 percent did not include cash rates, which are typically paid by the uninsured. About 98 percent of the sampled children’s hospitals were compliant with the “shoppable” services requirement, which critics say provides little value to consumers because it may not represent what patients end up paying.

“It’s against their financial interest to disclose the data. That’s why there’s such low compliance,” said Sophia Tripoli, director of Health Care Innovations at Families USA, a consumer advocacy group that is calling for increased fines and enforcement. 

Hospitals with more than 30 beds can be penalized a maximum of $2 million annually for noncompliance, which isn’t enough of a fine to motivate providers “flush with cash,” she said.

Hospital leaders have expressed concerns that releasing data on what various payers are paying for services could give insurers more leverage in negotiations. 

Competition concerns

Turquoise Health, which was formed at the end of 2020 to analyze data and help providers and payers become compliant with the rules, has found that about 4,500 of the nation’s 6,093 hospitals have posted data files. 

Marcus Dorstel, vice president of operations for Turquoise Health, said there isn’t a pattern showing larger hospitals are less likely to comply. But there are geographic patterns of noncompliance, indicating some hospitals may be reluctant to post data before their competitors do. 

In all, about 70 percent of those 4,500 hospitals have received ratings of four or five stars (out of five) from Turquoise Health for having complete data files.

Eventually, Dorstel said, he hopes the data can be used to standardize prices across markets. 

“So in a certain region, generally, a specific service should cost within a certain range, versus the wild variation that we're seeing today,” he said. 

Texas 2036, a nonprofit research organization, has built a dashboard analyzing price transparency compliance among the state’s 644 hospitals, specifically with the machine-readable file requirements. Preliminary data from April shows 33 percent of the state’s hospitals are compliant, a slight increase from 27 percent in August. 

The dashboard hasn’t launched yet, but the eventual goal is for employers to be able to use the data to get lower rates, said Charles Miller, senior policy adviser for the group. 

The data that has been made available by hospitals in some cases has been difficult to analyze.

CMS does not require that hospitals post data in any specific formats other than machine readable, making it difficult for researchers to compare files released by different hospitals. 

“I don’t know why you wouldn’t tell people how to do it. You have different hospitals using different formats to essentially say the same thing. It doesn’t make sense,” said Gary Claxton, director of Kaiser Family Foundation’s program on the health care marketplace. 

Files that are released by hospitals are often missing data, according to a Patient Rights Advocate analysis of 1,000 hospital websites from Dec. 7 through Jan. 28.

The report estimated that 86 percent of the 1,000 hospitals did not post a complete machine-readable file of standard charges. 

A similar rule for insurers takes effect July 1, and Cynthia Fisher, founder and chairman of Patient Rights Advocate, expects that data to be more useful. Most group health plans and issuers of group of individual health insurance will have to post machine-readable files containing in-network rates and out-of-network payments, price comparison tools to help customers understand cost-sharing responsibilities. 

“This is the year that data gets unleashed,” Fisher said. 

Normalizing drug addiction leads to even more overdoses

 The city Health Department started an ad campaign offering steps on how to safely use fentanyl.

But as evidence starts to come in from the real world, this Pollyannaish view deserves to be questioned.

Consider what’s happened in Oregon, where in 2020 voters approved a ballot measure to decriminalize hard drugs — and at the same time establish addiction treatment centers. Unconsidered was the possibility that making heroin and fentanyl legal — subject to a $100 fine that could be waived if one just calls a help hotline — might actually encourage more use.

Instead of harm reduction, OD deaths are climbing. At a hearing on the law, a state legislator from rural Eagle’s Pass reported a 700% hike in drug use and a 120% rise in overdose deaths. Oregon’s secretary of state told the hearing that “in many communities in Oregon we’ve seen the problem with drug addiction get worse.”

The harm-reduction movement needs to accept common sense: Acquiescence signals approval.

Supplies for drug users are seen at an overdose prevention center
Supplies for drug users are organized at OnPoint NYC, a safe injection site.
Seth Wenig/AP

Advocates of decriminalization believe, as usual, that the problem is money. Spend more and we’ll see improvement! But what’s happening so far should put this whole movement on notice: You’re experimenting with human lives and the lives of families ruined by drug users.

Whether it’s the safe-injection sites in Harlem and Brooklyn or the decriminalization of cocaine and opioid possession in British Columbia (announced this week), advocates of the harm-reduction approach must be willing to accept evidence.

Accepting hard-drug use signals that public-health authorities believe they have no tools to reverse a public-health crisis, that they are giving up on thousands of citizens or embracing the misbegotten idea that one can be a productive drug addict.

A naloxone kit
The city Health Department provides overdose rescue kits.

Here’s another idea for the city Health Department: a subway campaign urging riders not to use drugs in the first place. Heavy-handed “Just say no” warnings may not be the right approach — but in a city filled with the most creative advertising firms in the world, we should not rule out a campaign that could change habits and lives.

It is ironic indeed that we see no such public-health campaign even as the state continues to run graphic portrayals of end-stage lung cancer and regrets from its victims that they ever took up smoking. A similar anti-drug campaign could include grief-stricken parents who have lost children to overdoses — and saw their potential snuffed out.

Government sends signals about what it is acceptable. From drug-decriminalization laws to the “Use safely” campaign, government is sending the wrong signal.

Howard Husock is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/03/normalizing-drug-addiction-leads-to-even-more-overdoses/

Fla. AG: NYC Health Dept. ads empowering ‘safe’ drug use are ‘deadly’

 The Sunshine State officials doubled down on their disdain for a controversial New York City Health Department ad campaign that tells junkies to not be ashamed of their drug habits — ripping Big Apple leaders for going “far off the rails” to deliver a deadly and reckless message.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody tweeted a copy of one of the woke NYC subway ads — which also says druggies should feel “empowered” when they use potentially lethal fentanyl safely, even though the substance was the the leading cause of death among Americans ages 18 to 45 in 2020, according to one analysis.

“There is no ‘safe’ way to abuse fentanyl & these ads do not ‘empower’ users — they could get them killed,” the Republican AG wrote Tuesday. “I’m astounded how far off the rails NYC leaders have gone. DO NOT follow their reckless advice.”

Moody also tore into Mayor Adams for continuing the “Let’s Talk Fentanyl” public awareness campaign, first launched by ex-Mayor de Blasio.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody
Moody’s remarks came a week after Florida’s Department of Health first called out its northern counterpart.
Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel via AP

“It is inconceivable that the New York mayor and Health Department are empowering people to abuse drugs” during a “national opioid crisis,” Moody told The Post.

“There is no safe way to abuse fentanyl, and promoting these ads is beyond reckless,” she said. “Resources for those struggling should be provided by trained and medical professionals, not by politicians and organizations giving dangerous and potentially deadly advice.” 

NYC department of health fentanyl ad
The add tells fentanyl users to be “empowered” that they are using the drug “safely”

Moody’s remarks came a week after Florida’s Department of Health first called out its northern counterpart. “This ain’t it, @NYCHealthy,” the Florida agency tweeted May 27.

The ad campaign initially ran with little reaction for about a month, from Dec. 13 to Jan. 16. The campaign relaunched May 9 with a broader distribution that this time included subways, bus stops, newspapers, digital media and social media. It is slated to end on Sunday.

The city says it’s spending $750,000 on the second wave of ads but claimed Friday it could not immediately provide the campaign’s total costs.

man injecting another man
The substance was the the leading cause of death among Americans ages 18 to 45 in 2020, according to one analysis.
J.C.Rice

Council Minority Leader Joseph Borelli (R-Staten Island) said he wants answers.

“Every single dollar that was spent on these dumb ads could have went towards another bed in a [drug-addiction] recovery facility or another session of counseling under the city’s Health Department,” Borelli said.

Health Department spokesman Patrick Gallahue defended the new campaign —  which mirrors the “harm reduction” approach embraced by Democratic-run San Francisco — saying “stigma-busting is a core part of public health.”

needle exchange drugs
“There is no ‘safe’ way to abuse fentanyl & these ads do not ‘empower’ users — they could get them killed,” Moody said.
Matthew McDermott

“It is central to our messaging on everything from sexual health to cancer screenings. Shame kills,” he added.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/04/nyc-health-dept-ads-empowering-safe-drug-use-are-deadly-florida-ag-ashley-moody/

U.S. Stocks Are Trading at a Rarely Seen Discount

 U.S. stocks may have rebounded after a brush with a bear market, but by our calculations, the broad equity market remains well in undervalued territory.

As of May 31, 2022, the price/fair value of a composite of the stocks covered by our equity analyst team was 0.87 times. Since 2011, on a monthly basis, there have only been a few other instances in which the markets have traded at such a large discount to our intrinsic valuation.

The current level of undervaluation is the greatest discount to fair value since the emergence of the pandemic in March 2020 and the growth scare that sent stocks lower in December 2018.

On a longer historical time frame, the only other instance when our price/fair value metric had dropped lower was in the fall of 2011, when there were concerns that possible contagion from the Greek debt crisis was spreading to other countries (Portugal, Italy, and Spain) and that the systemic risk from the European sovereign debt crisis was spreading to the European banking system. The markets were close to this level in mid-2015/early 2016 when U.S. equity markets fell as declining economic growth in China and plunging oil prices took their toll on market sentiment.

A line chart of the equity market's price/fair value from 2011 through May 2022.

Markets were very volatile during May, as stocks fell for most of the month and even hit bear-market territory during intraday trading on May 20. However, almost immediately after breaking through the "official" bear-market marker of a 20% decline from their peak, stocks rallied as bargain-hunters emerged.

While we were not surprised by the market pullback earlier in the year, as the markets were overvalued coming into the year, we think the pendulum has swung too far the other direction and view the U.S. equity market as being significantly undervalued for long-term investors.

Where Are Stocks Undervalued?

At the beginning of the year, we noted that the value category was the most attractive and that both core and growth stocks were overvalued. Value stocks have held up the best during the selloff as the Morningstar US Value Index increased 0.97% year to date through May. Most of the selloff occurred within the growth category; the Morningstar US Growth Index plummeted 28.39%.

Losses across the core stock category split the difference as the Morningstar US Core Index dropped 12.85%.

According to our valuations, the growth category is now the most undervalued, trading at a 19% discount to our fair value, followed by the value category at an 8% discount and then core at a 6% discount. Across capitalization levels, we continue to see the best opportunities among small-cap stocks (19% discount), followed by large-cap (13% discount) and mid-cap (11% discount) stocks.

What Will the Summer Months Bring?

Although we calculate that the market remains undervalued for long-term investors, we also expect that volatility will remain high over next few months. In our 2022 Outlook, we noted that there were four main headwinds that the market would need to contend with this year. Any one of these headwinds is difficult enough for the markets to traverse—and right now we are in the midst of the convergence of all four playing out at the same time. It is unlikely that volatility will meaningfully subside until the market gets better clarity over the next few months.

Slowing rate of economic growth

  • We recently lowered our projection for economic growth in 2022 to a 3.0% increase in gross domestic product growth from 3.5% and lowered our 2023 projection to 2.2% from 3.0%. However, while the economic growth rate may be slower, we continue to think that the probability of a near-term recession is relatively low.
  • Tightening monetary policy
    Following the release of the minutes for the May 2022 Federal Reserve meeting, stocks rebounded sharply as investors perceived the minutes to be less hawkish than expected. The market continues to project that the Fed will increase the federal-funds rate by a half percent at each of the next two meetings. However, at that point, the Fed will be able re-evaluate its outlook for inflation and economic growth and determine its path for future rate hikes. If inflation subsides or the economy softens, the Fed could either slow or pause additional rate hikes. If inflation remains stubbornly high, then the Fed could maintain its 50-basis-point hikes.
  • Inflation running hot
    In addition to lowering our forecast for economic growth, we also bumped up our forecast for inflation to a 5.2% increase in the personal consumption expenditure index from 4.5% this year. While the current rate of inflation remains high, we continue to project that inflation will begin to moderate in the second half of this year as supply chain disruptions ease and inflation runs up against high year-over-year comparisons. We forecast that inflation will moderate further in 2023 and drop below 2%.
  • Rising interest rates
    Since the start of the year, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 1.42 percentage points to 2.93% as of May 31. While long-term interest rates are expected to rise further over the course of the year, the preponderance of the increase has already likely occurred. The next test for the bond market begins this month as the Fed begins to shrink its bond holdings. With the Fed no longer reinvesting the proceeds from bonds that mature, the bond market will have to absorb this additional amount of supply.

High-Quality Companies Trading at Significantly Undervalued Levels

Much of the selloff this year has been relatively indiscriminate in that even high-quality companies, such as those with Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings of wide, have declined. Companies rated with wide economic moats are those with long-term durable competitive advantages that will allow them to generate excess returns over their cost of capital. These companies are best positioned to weather any potential economic disruptions and typically have the strongest pricing power.

There were eight wide-moat stocks whose Morningstar Ratings moved into 5-star territory. Of the 238 companies that we rate with a wide moat that trade on U.S. exchanges, there are now 27 with a 5-star rating; at the end of 2021, there were only nine.

Table showing 8 wide-moat stocks that recently became undervalued.

What to Do Now?

In these types of market environments, it is especially important for investors to have a plan that balances their long-term investment goals with their risk tolerances. This plan should also allow for periodic rebalancing to increase equity allocations when valuations decline but also reduce exposure when valuations become overextended. Based on our view that the U.S. equity market is undervalued, we think that now is not the time to be reducing exposures but to be adding judiciously—especially in high-quality companies—based on your investment plan and goals. 

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1097165/us-stocks-are-trading-at-a-rarely-seen-discount

Medtech companies keep supply, staffing challenges in check as recession risks loom: Blair

 

  • Medical device companies are successfully managing macro headwinds and in many cases are at least partly insulated from recession risks, according to analysts at William Blair. 
  • First-quarter sales for most companies exceeded expectations even amid the COVID-19 surge at the start of the year. That led the analysts to give a positive appraisal of how medtech firms are coping with challenges such as supply disruptions, staffing shortages, inflation and foreign-exchange challenges.
  • The analysts expect demand for technologies that have reimbursement coverage and are used in nonelective procedures to be durable, although they see risks for products used in procedures that can be delayed and consumer-driven devices should the economy slip into recession.
In their review of the first quarter, the William Blair analysts found that 82% of the companies they cover beat sales forecasts by 4% on average. 

“Medical device supply chains have largely been resilient through ongoing disruption” and management teams “are optimistic” that hospital staffing shortages will be manageable even as they remain a challenge in 2022, the analysts wrote. With inflation baked into 2022 forecasts, the analysts concluded most medical device firms are “managing these headwinds relatively well.”

For companies that missed revenue forecasts in the first quarter, the analysts attributed it to “macro factors like chip shortages and volatility around boluses of COVID demand.” This also was reflected in earnings-per-share results, which were 3% below expectations on average, they added.

Faced with these challenges, medical device companies that beat expectations in the quarter mostly retained their full-year revenue forecasts, suggesting that “the early momentum was not passed through the remainder of the year,” the analysts said.

For their part, the William Blair analysts see positive signs for the rest of the year as most of the companies they cover already have secured supplies for at least this year and expect hospital staffing shortages to ease throughout 2022. Urgent and semi-urgent procedures such as stroke and transcatheter aortic valve replacement, respectively, should be the least affected by staffing, the analysts said, adding that there is a “slightly elevated risk” of a slowdown in elective procedures.  

“In this environment, we think companies with solutions that can help improve outcomes while also reducing [length of stay] and readmissions can be key winners: Edwards, Abiomed, Penumbra, and iRhythm. We also note several of our companies with large recurring-revenue bases (such as DexCom and Insulet) will be less impacted by these staffing shortages,” the analysts wrote.

The split between the performance of companies focused on elective and nonelective procedures also may apply in the event of a recession, the analysts said, adding that the medical technology industry fared better than other sectors during the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s and the Great Recession in 2007-2009.

In the event of another recession, the analysts expect “minimal impact” on reimbursed devices used in nonelective procedures and bigger risks to products used in procedures that can be delayed.

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/medtechs-supply-staffing-headwinds-recession-risks/624279/