by Allan J. Feifer
The war is not over by a long shot, but there’s a window open to a resolution. President Trump’s temporary truce with Iran is only the next stage in what promises to be a high-risk, high-reward endeavor if a final agreement is to be reached. Many readers historically don’t pay enough attention to the dynamics unfolding in Iran, Israel, and the Middle East. Those who don’t, for reasons of either disinterest or because they don’t believe there is a long-term solution, are witnessing a pivotal moment for all Americans. President Trump, the last President many thought would engage in a major war, had his hand forced.
This is not a skirmish; this is a war with major geopolitical consequences that has the power to set America on a course for continued prosperity across multiple domains or, if we fail to thread the needle, to close off vital interests and advantage our enemies for the foreseeable future.
Iran is at a fork in the road, and Donald Trump is the one who put it there. Even as late as last week, Iran had no intention of negotiating with us. What changed was a recognition of Donald Trump’s force of will and that Iran’s strategy of deceit, drawing negotiations out, and most importantly, waiting us out, allowing America’s internal and external naysayers to do their dastardly work of undermining America’s will to prosecute the war to completion, is not working fast enough. Iran’s leaders believed Trump’s pronouncement that he would end their society in a lightning-fast four hours of utter destruction. We could do that.
Trump’s dilemma is that the best minds all agree that after killing at least 40,000 of their own people in the February uprising, the people may not have either the appetite (or the ability) to overthrow the IRGC, which today is the real power, not the theocracy at this moment. If we make a deal, it’s up to the IRGC to decide to take it, not the clerics, though some may dispute me on this.
Currently, the sticking point is that both sides define victory differently. You can pick any number of Democrat doomscrollers in and out of office who will tell you that Iran is winning, not us. They’re wrong, but there is nuance here: President Trump fell through the rabbit hole, and, frankly, others did as well. The central failure is that the two sides define victory differently. For us, we think of victory as well…as President Trump expressed—surrender. But for Iran, victory means survival. Everything Iran does reflects that reality.
Iran’s original, pre-war goal centered on nuclear weapons that would checkmate the West and make Iran the only hegemonic power in the Middle East. In essence, they wanted to be like North Korea and dare the West (or the Sunnis, for that matter) to screw with them. They believe, likely rightly, that the Americans and Europe will not challenge a nuclear-armed Iran, especially once Iran had mastered miniaturizing a nuclear weapon and put it on a missile that could reach Europe and eventually the U.S.
We have stopped that ambition cold, and the Iranians know it. Trump will be remembered for all time as having acted before it was too late. That should get his likeness plastered on his own mountain, not just added to Mt. Rushmore. Americans underestimate why we needed to act when we did and what it will mean to them for generations to come.
One month of fighting is nothing in the history of U.S. warfare. Other conflicts have been measured in years, not weeks. This conflict may not be over, but it’s closer to the end than the beginning because the rules of engagement for our side are vastly different this time, and we’re dealing with an enemy with vulnerabilities that a bunch of tribal or even semi-modern warlords can’t match. The big deciding difference is money!
Iran would be of little importance and would not have the ability to threaten, except that it has oil and the money that gives it the power to cause mischief. Even the Strait of Hormuz would not be an issue if Iran were powerless to buy the armaments that threaten passage goers. Cut the money off, and Iran dies.
Estimates suggest that Iran could keep essential services running, pay salaries, and purchase essential imports for at best, three to six months with cash on hand. After that, the country begins to devolve quickly without reliable, massive oil revenue.
One other factor, in combination with not letting Iran sell oil, is that the U.S. and Israel could drop their electric grid overnight, and the Iranians know this, too. The combination of those two factors would trigger a rapid decline in civil and military authority, leading to almost certain regime change. So, why don’t we do it?
- We don’t know who will become Iran’s next leader.
- A short-term consequence would be extremely high oil costs that could trigger a recession in the West and put Democrats in office.
- There is a lack of consensus that Iran is the existential threat to civilization that it is in Washington.
- The cost in human suffering for Iranians would be too high
- Lack of will
The nature of war has changed for the West. If you look at Europe, they’ve convinced themselves that war is passé and have therefore stripped their collective militaries of the ability to wage war in favor of social benefits. Putin’s expansionist moves in Ukraine have challenged that belief. Yet Europe has not put itself on a war footing; instead, it has decided to pull out its checkbook rather than mobilize.
You can point to various efforts to increase readiness, but it’s not nearly serious enough. All the proof you need is to view how Europe treated America in our current fight with Iran. Europe acted as if it had a choice on who and how to support Israel and America. They chose wrong. I expect that the folly of their actions will result in several European leaders being shown the door as the reality of their position becomes obvious to all.
Iran has not surrendered and won’t surrender in the traditional sense. They believe that their defense in depth (tunnels, redoubts, defense industrial base, etc.), alongside their willingness to accept catastrophic losses that the West won’t accept, will see them outlast the forces arrayed against them.
We must take away their belief system that undergirds all other strategic and theocratic doctrine. Send them back to the Stone Age if necessary (it likely will) and give Iran the chance to reconstitute itself as a nation of industrious, storied people who can join the ranks of other good nations.
The essential nature of war has not changed. You must destroy the will of your opponent, or they will break yours.
