Brent crude futures jumped a little more than 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil benchmark on track for its biggest weekly gain since April. That move followed an Axios report that said the Trump administration had notified Israel it was deployingadditional aerial assetsto the region, signaling the US military could expand strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend.
Financial Times spoke with energy traders at the end of the week who warned that slowing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a more severe supply crunch than the first round of the US-Iran war because emergency reserves and stockpiles around the world that cushioned the earlier disruption have been mostly depleted.
"We've burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything," said one trader. "All of that's now gone.
Fuel markets strengthened again, with the ICE gasoil crack closing at the highest on record and the Nymex heating oil crack the strongest since March. More narrow Brent put spreads around the low $70s traded in sizable numbers.
Earlier today, the International Energy Agency revealed that member countries released three-quarters of the planned 400 million-barrel emergency reserves announced in March.
Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, pointed out that heading into the US-Iran war, the global oil market had around 400 million barrels of excess inventories, not including strategic reserves controlled by governments.
"Now we have close to nothing ... and market complacency around Hormuz flows is being severely tested," Sen warned.
UBS analyst Henri Patricot wrote in the daily "Hormuz tracker" note that further Hormuz escalation has occurred, Gulf tanker crossings remain limited, and there is a sharp pullback in Gulf loadings:
Further escalation
The conflict in the Middle East is escalating further as Iran reportedly targeted power plants and desalinisation plants in Kuwait. Previous strikes had focused on US military targets. These followed US strikes on bridges and an airport in Iran.
Limited Gulf tanker crossings
Increased attacks continue to weigh heavily on flows via Hormuz. The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show that oil and gas tanker crossings fell to one, with only one product tanker entering the Gulf (Figure 1).
July-to-date crossings have averaged 10, down from the mid-to-high teens recorded in late June and early July, and remain well below the c.50 level seen in February. Oil on water in the Gulf is ticking up again, up ~5Mb in recent days (Figure 10).
The absence of outbound oil and gas flows takes the July average down to 5.4Mboe/d, compared with 3.7Mboe/d in June and 1.3Mboe/d in May (Figure 4).
Capacity entering the Gulf fell to 0.7Mboe/d and has averaged 5.2Mboe/d month to date (Figure 5).
Meanwhile, flows via the Bab al Mandeb Strait have not been disrupted so far and increased further to 9.7Mb/d yesterday, above the July-to-date average of 6.7Mb/d.
A sharp pullback in Gulf loading
Gulf crude loadings ex-Iran fell sharply to 1.0Mb/d yesterday from 6.0Mb/d on Wednesday, with the past-week average at 3.2Mb/d vs 5.1Mb/d in July and 3.4Mb/d in June. Iranian loadings rose to 5.0Mb/d yesterday, lifting the July average to 1.5Mb/d, still below the typical 1.7-1.8Mb/d range, but above June's 0.8Mb/d (Figure 9).
Crude loadings at ports outside the Strait (Yanbu in Saudi Arabia and Fujairah in the UAE) eased following a sharp rebound, falling to 3.6Mb/d yesterday below the July-to-date average of 5.9Mb/d and June's 6.9Mb/d. Yanbu declined to 2.7Mb/d, below the month-to-date level of 4.2Mb/d and June's 4.8Mb/d. Product loadings inside the Gulf remain close to May-June levels (Figure 15).
The normalization pathway of tanker flows appears to have been disrupted as the US and Iran become locked in an escalation spiral, with neither side willing to back down. Any sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has now been postponed.
With or without Tehran's cooperation, US-allied Gulf countries are in the beginning innings of what we've described as a "great energy rewiring" to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint.
"Ultimately, the market was pricing an optimistic flow trajectory that now is clearly not on the table, at least . . . not until we get another round of diplomacy," Natixis Bank analyst Joel Hancock wrote in a note.
Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, which killed two U.S. service members and injured others, are likely to trigger a major U.S. retaliation.
🚨Alert: Iranian ballistic missiles strike US bases in Jordan as attacks continue. Iran has vowed to strike US bases across the region in response to US attacks on Iran. pic.twitter.com/nrYmGv1Ucu
— US Homeland Security News (@defense_civil25) July 18, 2026
Israel's Channel 14 reported late Saturday that President Trump instructed CENTCOM to "open the gates of hell" on Iran.
Trump has told CENTCOM to “open the gates of hell” on Iran.
The U.S. State Department issued a worldwide caution, warning: "Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex, with the potential for unforeseen escalation."
Worldwide Caution: Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation. We remind Americans in the region of the continued need for caution and encourage them to monitor the news for breaking… pic.twitter.com/A3LKEQSRiO
Will tensions ease before the NY futures open on Sunday evening?
Americans Killed by Iranian Missiles on Jordan
Footage has been widely circulating over the past half-day showing massive Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Jordan. Iran said it targeted a US base there, and took out various aerial and radar assets, and caused casualties among American troops.
But the Pentagon has been radio silent on the extent of potential damage, until now: US officials are reporting that two American service members were killed in the overnight Iranian attack. According to emerging details in Axios:
Two U.S. service members were killed and more wounded in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on an airbase in Jordan on Saturday, military officials said.
This is the first time U.S. troops have been killed since the fighting resumed two weeks ago. The incident raises the number of U.S. service members killed in the war to 16.
On Saturday at least two Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts U.S. troops and fighter jets.
CENTCOM posted to X, officially confirming the news: "On July 17, two U.S. service members in Jordan were killed in action as U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and partner forces defended against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. Additionally, one service member is currently missing in action."
Two Iranian medium-range ballistic missile impacts were reported at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan earlier tonight. pic.twitter.com/NLgLeghrs7
The statement has noted additional injuries: "Four American service members were medically evacuated to Jordanian hospitals. They have since been discharged. Other personnel who were evaluated for minor injuries have returned to duty," CENTCOM said.
Iran Formally Suspends MoU
It is now "official": the Iranians have declared that the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States is dead. Tasnim is reporting Saturday that Iran will no longer fulfill its MoU obligations amid alleged repeat US violations. The past weeks have seen each side hurl warnings and threats to pull out, while attaching conditions that must be fulfilled.
But after what is now a full week of renewed fighting, it has been effectively torn up, with negotiations no longer happening. Al Jazeera is citing a top Iran official's precise statement on suspending the MoU in the following:
Previously, we have seen again and again Iranian officials accusing the US of violating the MoU and also putting some conditions if the aggression continues.
What we’re seeing is Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, who is also head of the Iranian technical negotiating team, saying that in practice, the US has violated all the commitments and suspended the MoU entirely.
“We also likewise have suspended all of our commitments as a result; we are no longer implementing those commitments,” he added.
So, officially, this is the first time the Iranians are saying the MoU is over and they’re not going to implement any clause.
Given President Trump has apparently just ordered dozens more aerial refueling planes to the region, the conflict looks to continue going up the escalation ladder for at least the next week or longer. Each side will seek to impose more economic and military pain, while waiting for the other to blink. Battle of narratives over damage and retaliation:
🇮🇷🇯🇴⚡️– Insane footage of Iranian ballistic missiles striking Jordanian air bases despite a large number of interceptors in the air.
Despite clear footage of impacts they still deny it and lie that all of them were intercepted. pic.twitter.com/Es8hw7TCXJ
Saudi Arabia has come under attack by Iranian missiles in the last 24 hours, the kingdom is confirming on Saturday, in a major escalation given that this is a first since near the start of the war several months ago. According to Reuters:
The Saudi civil defense early on Saturday issued two early warnings for Al-Kharj city and Yanbu to be alert to “potential danger,” but it later says the danger has passed in both areas, without providing details on the danger that triggered the warnings.
A US official tells the Axios news site that Iran targeted an American military base in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile, the first time that the Islamic Republic has directly attacked the kingdom in four months.
Locations in Jordan and even Syria have also been hit in recent salvos, but the US military has downplayed these attacks - and there's a battle of narratives over just how destructive these have been amid the fog of war.
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) July 18, 2026
116 Telecoms Towers In Southern Iran Taken Out
As we featured earlier, Iranian communications and even the supply of drinking water have been severely impacted in some places of southern Iran, amid continuing US airstrikes on civic and national infrastructure, amid the seventh consecutive day of war. "Hormozgan's chief of communications and information technology says the US's overnight attacks disrupted telecommunications in Bandar Abbas and Hajiabad, in the northern part of the province," Al Jazeera reports
Authorities there have tallied at least 116 telecommunication towers which were taken out of service due to the US onslaught. This has resulted in outages and disruptions of fixed-line, mobile, and internet services, per Tasnim news agency.
This suggests the US is returning to a strategy which seeks to create destabilization within, targeting the ability of the public to communicate and access information, returning the situation to the early weeks of the war, which saw Tehran authorities themselves curb internet and some telecoms access for the citizenry.
Kuwait Power & Desalination Plant Hit
Kuwait was bombarded overnight in one of the fiercest Iranian retaliatory strikes since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, with missiles and one-way drones targeting power infrastructure and other critical energy assets.
Local outlet Kuwait News Agency reports an unspecified site of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation suffered "significant material losses" as the week-long flare-up in Gulf tensions has derailed any near-term normalization of tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
There was a report that the Al-Subiya power station was struck. This marks the second attack on Kuwaiti power infrastructure in just days, after a transformer at the Zour South electricity and desalination complex was hit on Friday.
Authorities disconnected several power-generating units as a precaution and urged residents to conserve electricity. A Kuwaiti army base was also struck during the latest escalation, injuring several personnel.
Second Iranian strike in two days hit a Kuwaiti power/desalination plant, sparking a fire.
A similar plant was hit yesterday.
Strikes are part of Iran's ongoing campaign against US military sites in Kuwait (Ali Al Salem base and others).
Bahrain and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. The overnight barrage followed a seventh consecutive night of US strikes targeting Iranian surveillance sites, weapons storage, logistics infrastructure and maritime offensive capabilities as the Department of War seeks to erode Tehran's leverage on the Hormuz waterway.
Surge in more large US refueling planes headed to Mideast, signaling likely expansion of strikes on Iran.
US attacks hit Iranian energy and transport infrastructure.
Iran threatens stronger retaliation and claims strike on US base in Qatar - and deepens attacks to include US outposts in Jordan, Syria.
Iran urges power conservation; Hormuz shipping traffic declines further.
Oil prices rise to session highs on fears of broader regional conflict.
Brent chart
The latest Hormuz tanker transit data via Bloomberg shows that activity at the maritime chokepoint has all but ceased. This data is based on ships activating their transponders and doesn't account for ships that 'go dark'...
Overnight headlines
...courtesy of Bloomberg:
US-Iran Escalation
The US launched its seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran on Friday at 3 p.m. ET, aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities, including hitting bridges, energy infrastructure, and a port facility in southern Iran, according to Iranian state media.
The conflict has intensified beyond military targets, with the US striking six road bridges and reports of attacks near Bushehr's nuclear power plant and the province of Lorestan, raising fears of a return to full-scale war.
The hostilities were triggered by an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, just days after the US and Iran signed a preliminary ceasefire deal, setting off a chain of escalating attacks.
Iran has threatened a "full-scale offensive" in response to US strikes, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining virtually closed as of Saturday.
Iran Attacks Kuwait
Iran launched a heavy barrage on Kuwait on Saturday morning, striking a vital oil facility and causing significant material losses and injuries, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation via state news agency KUNA.
Kuwait airport suspended flights following the Saturday attacks, which triggered multiple rounds of sirens from around dawn.
Iran also struck a power and desalination plant and a transformer at the Zour South facility, causing a fire and marking Tehran's first targeting of power infrastructure during the current escalation.
Kuwait's foreign ministry accused Iran of systematically targeting civilian sites and vital infrastructure, saying it "endangers the lives and safety of civilians."
Iran's Counterstrikes
Iran has been targeting US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain in retaliation for US strikes. The IRGC claimed its 20th wave of "Nasr 2" operations destroyed several American aircraft at a US airbase in Jordan.
US-sanctioned Iranian tankers are U-turning and zig-zagging in the Gulf of Oman as the US enforces an aggressive blockade of Iranian shipping, having redirected three merchant ships, boarded one vessel, and disabled a non-compliant tanker.
Energy Market Impact
Crude oil prices surged sharply, posting their biggest rise since April, as fears of renewed escalation grew and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumped significantly.
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown is expected to spark massive investments aimed at permanently reducing reliance on the chokepoint, restructuring global energy infrastructure and trade flows, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Below is my column in the New York Post on the sharp decline in millionaires in New York, costing the state billions as many flee. The exodus has been building for years but may now be accelerating. As Mayor Mamdani holds another press conference promising to end the “violence of evictions,” businesses are reading the writing on the wall. Rather than work to make the state more attractive to wealthy residents and businesses, Democrats are seeking to diminish the appeal of two-tax states. They want to tap into a long-barred area of taxation: the wealth rather than just the income of citizens. By passing a national wealth tax, Democrats will reduce the benefit of fleeing high-tax states like California and New York.
“Start spreadin’ the news, I’m leavin’ today” — that’s how the famous song “New York, New York” captures the Big Apple’s draw.
Today, the line is becoming more ironic than iconic: Many people are indeed leaving … from New York, New York.
Worse yet, those “vagabond shoes” that “are longing to stray” are on the feet of the wealthiest New Yorkers.
And as they flee, according to a new study, they’re taking away billions in badly needed tax revenue.
As Mayor Zohran Mamdani and others pledge massive social programs and free services by taxing the wealthy, the wealthy are just melting away.
The reason is simple: if “you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.”
In today’s economy, it’s no longer necessary or even particularly beneficial to be in New York to make money in financial and other areas.
When any business meeting is a screen and a click away, you can go to a low-tax state like Florida or Texas and do as well as you can in the Big Apple.
Not surprisingly, many are choosing the money over the mystique and the madness.
This week the Citizens Budget Commission reported that New York’s share of millionaires fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022 — the largest drop of any state.
By denouncing the remaining wealthy as effectively freeloaders who are “not paying their fair share,” Mamdani is only spurring them on.
It’s a demonstrably false claim that I discuss in my book Rage and the Republic — and part of a growing class-warfare theme the left is deliberately using to fuel political rage.
Yet it’s easy to form a mob — and far more difficult to control it.
That is particularly the case when your economic policies destroy your economy, and your ability to pay for all the free services that you’ve promised.
There’s a good-faith debate to be had over optimal tax levels, but the fact is that the top 10% of Americans pay more in taxes than the other 90% of the country. The top 1% pays roughly 40% of federal taxes.
As rational actors flee the state, Mamdani and New York Democrats are forced to cull the shrinking herd of high-end taxpayers who remain, layering on special fees like a pied-à-terre tax to be imposed on NYC’s luxury property owners.
And rather than change course to make New York a more attractive place to do business and live, national Democrats are moving to make other states no better — by nationalizing wealth taxes and by taxing fleeing citizens as if they still lived in the state.
Many are following Sen. Bernie Sanders’ and Rep. Ro Khanna’s call to impose a federal wealth tax they’ve dubbed the Billionaire Tax.
The idea is to stem the exodus from California and New York by giving the highest earners no place to go . . . except out of the country.
And Khanna recently confirmed what some of us have been saying for years: The Billionaire Tax isn’t only for billionaires.
“The tax should not stop at billionaires,” he said in a pitch to his party’s rising socialist movement; “it must reach centimillionaires. The tax has to reach all fortunes $50 million and up.”
Khanna and others hope that, once taken nationally, a wealth tax would destroy the benefit of moving to low-tax states — and open up literally trillions in new potential revenue.
In the meantime, New York will continue to burn billions as it taps its dwindling number of millionaires.
As their wealthy neighbors depart, those remaining will have to make up for their loss.
Being among the last to leave New York will be a costly distinction.
They will indeed “wake up” — and find that they’re “king of the hill, top of the list” for wealth redistribution.
Shanghai Xingshu Tiansuan Space Technology Co. on Saturday said it had launched the first constellation of a space-computing project that in total aims to deploy 1,000 satellites in space.
• Xingshu Tiansuan said the launch marked a step closer to the commercial operation of China's first space-based computing network.
• The announcement coincided with Chinese President Xi Jinping's attendance at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where he cast Beijing as the champion of a new global AI order
Elon Musk's SpaceX, following its February merger with xAI, is advancing its own space-based computing initiatives, seeking to accelerate AI development.
