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Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Moderna downgraded to neutral at UBS on questions over revenue growth

 

  • UBS downgraded Moderna (MRNA) to neutral from buy saying that mostly flat revenues increase concerns that the biotech will struggle to break even or maintain profitability through the end of the decade.
  • The Swiss bank cut its price target to $34 from $40 prior (~5% downside based on Tuesday's close).
  • Analyst Michael Yee said Moderna "needs a new blockbuster product," adding, the "near-term catalyst to determine the direction will come with the Phase Ill adjuvant melanoma cancer vaccine data (partnered with MRK) estimated around Q4/26 but we are somewhat cautious on risk/reward...and the data is very binary for Phase Ill (and commercial opportunity somewhat limited)..."
  • He gives the data a 60%-65% probability of success. If it is positive, the stock could pop 50% or more, but a negative outcome could lead to a drop of 50%. 

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