The clock’s ticking down for Iran. President Trump has been dropping none-too-subtle hints that the Iranian war is not likely to last much longer. It was just disclosed that more than 5,000 targets have been hit in the last twelve days, the Iranians have virtually completely lost their Navy, and drone and missile launches are down to a small fraction of what they’ve been able to muster in the past. We have decimated their command and control, along with hundreds of their leaders in government and in the military. Israeli and American planes, and now likely rotorcraft, fly unmolested over Iran.
Is that why President Trump is so optimistic that the end is now in sight? Partially, but there is something else that is likely a greater factor than all the above, which by itself is nothing to sneeze at. It’s a secret weapon that could bring Iran to its knees in short order.
Like other nations in the Middle East, Iran’s power stems from a single product: oil.
Oil allows Iran to supply oil-hungry nations with the one thing they must have, no matter what: Energy. The revenues, in turn, give Iran status and the money to commit mischief. For now, Iran’s oil production has been cut by more than 50%. Moreover, it has no way to export oil except by sea, and no nation is coming to its rescue that can change the present calculus.
That’s bad enough by itself, but there’s something more subtle that’s even worse. Unless Iran surrenders, it will destroy its oil production entirely, in a way that cannot easily be remedied.
Image created using AI.
Iran is running out of storage space for the oil it’s still producing. That’s no problem, you say. Shut down oil production until the war is over and Iran regains the ability to ship again. There is one little problem with that.
After air and missile strikes on multiple Iranian fuel and storage facilities, Iran faces immediate storage and export bottlenecks, including tankers clustered outside the Strait of Hormuz, along with key terminals such as Kharg Island (reported loading capacity ~7 million b/d) at or near capacity. There’s nowhere to put the oil produced: no storage and no market.
However, as we learned during COVID, large industries cannot simply shut down and then restart quickly. Many reservoirs in oil-producing fields rely on sustained bottom-hole pressure and surface-flow systems. Long shut-ins allow gas breakthrough, liquid column backflow, paraffin/asphaltene precipitation, and scale formation that can plug perforations and damage pumps and completions, potentially requiring workovers, restimulation, or recompletion before safe restart.
Short-term shut-ins (days to a few weeks) can be managed with preservation procedures, but shut-ins beyond weeks to a month or more risk permanent productivity loss and long, costly remediation. Timeline: strikes occurred in the first week of March 2026; technical risks from shut-in began immediately but will escalate materially after several weeks to a month or two at most.
It gets worse. Both the technical expertise and the necessary technology and materials for repair are either unavailable or in short supply, since it’s a near-certainty that Iran will require foreign aid to get the oil flowing again.
In the days to come, it’s likely that American forces will take over Kharg Island (Iran’s main transshipping point). Kharg Island is isolated and not defensible by the Iranians. Moreover, its destruction in any Iranian attacks only hurts Iran’s ability to recover after the war ends. It is a highly visible symbol of Iran’s weakness, and the optics of America holding the reins of Iran’s economy would be debilitating to the Iranian morale.
Cutting off the oil also puts pressure on China, which gets around 13% of its oil from Iran. Not only has China been passive about this war, but it may soon start putting pressure on whoever is still in charge in Iran to surrender.
Many Americans don’t know what to think about the current military action against Iran. Our memories are filled with failed strategies and body bags, all ending in little or no gain for the expenditure of too much blood and treasure. This war, however, is different: effective, efficient, and with downstream effects that can remake the world. All should understand that America, and America alone, can be an agent of positive change for the entire world.
We should all wish Trump and our mission in Iran success.
God Bless America!
Author, Businessman, Thinker, and Strategist. Read more about Allan Feifer, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow.
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