China used climate system modeling in global prediction system for COVID-19 pandemic

 At the time of writing, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world. Before effective vaccines and specific drugs are developed, non-pharmacological interventions and numerical model predictions are essential. To this end, a group led by Professor Jianping Huang from Lanzhou University, China, developed the Global Prediction System of the COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP).

Jianping Huang is a Professor in the College of Atmospheric Sciences and a Director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University, China. He has for a long time been dedicated to studying long-term climate prediction, dust-cloud interaction, and semi-arid climate change by combining field observations and theoretical research. Lockdown in early 2020 seriously affected his research. Therefore, stuck at home, he held online discussions with his team members on how their experience of developing climate system models might be able to contribute to fighting the pandemic. He didn't expect much response, but was surprised and touched when many of his colleagues responded enthusiastically.

Therefore, he and his team combined the results of 30 years of work in statistical dynamic numerical weather prediction methods, and developed the GPCP based on the traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) infectious disease model. The improved methods and results were published in Atmospheric and Ocean Science Letters.

In order to combine epidemiological data and models, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) parameter optimization algorithm was proposed to identify epidemiological models, thereby constructing a Statistical-SIR model. The LM algorithm introduces a damping coefficient when calculating the Hessian matrix by the traditional least-squares method, thereby combining the advantage of the Gauss-Newton method and gradient descent method and improving the stability of parameters.

"From the simulation results of four selected countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases, the Statistical-Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model using the LM algorithm was found to be more consistent with the actual curve of the epidemic, being better able to reflect its trend of development," explains Prof. Huang.

In addition, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) model and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model were also used in combination to improve the prediction results of the GPCP. The EEMD method has been widely used in the fields of engineering, meteorology, ecology, etc. It can decompose the signal according to its own scale, and is suitable for non-stationary and nonlinear signal processing. The ARMA method can better predict time series.

"We found that the EEMD-ARMA method can be directly used to predict the number of daily new cases in countries with a smaller number of confirmed cases whose development trend cannot be predicted by the infectious disease model. Based on the results, this method is more effective for improving prediction results and making direct predictions," concludes Prof. Huang.

The GPCP model developed by Jianping Huang's team can carry out targeted predictions for different countries and regions, and has achieved good prediction results. The team will continue to improve the model in the future to provide more accurate forecasts for different countries and regions.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-02/ioap-csu020421.php

Biotech week ahead, Feb. 8

 Biopharma stocks advanced in the week ended Feb. 5, driven higher by a slew of catalysts. Large-cap pharma earnings, vaccine updates, M&A activity, IPO news flow and follow-on offerings all served to lift stocks higher.

In an unexpected move, Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC JAZZ 4.47% agreed to buy plant-derived cannabinoid drug maker GW Pharmaceuticals PLC- ADR GWPH 0.31% for $7.2 billion.

Novavax, Inc. NVAX 3.3% shares found follow-up buying interest amid vaccine updates. Earnings from large-cap biopharma companies can at best be qualified as mixed. The IPO calendar of the week was heavy, with 10 healthcare stocks making their Wall Street debuts this week.

Conferences

• Transplantation and Cellular Therapy, or TCT, Meeting of the American Society of Transplantation and Cellular Therapy and Center for International Blood & Marrow Transplant Research: Feb. 8-12
• 17th Annual WORLDSymposium: Feb. 8-12
• Guggenheim Healthcare Talks: 2021 Oncology Days: Feb. 11-12
• 2021 ASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium: Feb. 11-13
• Angiogenesis, Exudation, and Degeneration 2021 conference: Feb. 12-13

PDUFA Dates

The Food and Drug Administration is scheduled to rule on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc's REGN 0.03% biologic license application for evinacumab, which is being evaluated for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, an ultra-rare, inherited form of high cholesterol. The decision is expected by Thursday, Feb. 11.

Clinical Readouts

17th Annual WORLDSymposium Presentations

Regenxbio Inc RGNX 3.3%: interim results from the Phase 1/2 clinical trial of RGX-121 for the treatment of mucopolysaccharidosis type II (Monday, Feb. 8, at 10:06 a.m.)

Orchard Therapeutics PLC – ADR ORTX 18.81%: updated Phase 1/2 data for ex-vivo autologous stem cell gene therapy for mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIA; Phase 1/2 data for ex vivo hematopoietic stem cell gene therapy for mucopolysaccharidosis type I (Tuesday, Feb. 9)

Protalix Biotherapeutics Inc PLX 5.65%: one year of treatment data from BRIDGE, a phase 3 open-label study of pegunigalsidase alfa to treat patients with Fabry disease (Wednesday, Feb. 10, at 2:30-3:30 p.m.)

Avrobio Inc AVRO 6.77%: new phase 1/2 data for AVR-RD-02 ex-vivo lentiviral vector, autologous gene therapy for Gaucher disease (Thursday, Feb. 11, 2:30-3:30 p.m.); updated results from a phase 1/2 study of hematopoietic stem cell gene therapy for cystinosis (Friday, Feb. 12, 11 a.m.); updated Phase 2 data for AVR-RD-01 in Fabry disease (Friday, Feb. 12)

Abeona Therapeutics Inc ABEO 4.88%: updated results from Phase 1/2 study of ABO-101 gene therapy for mucopolysaccharidosis IIIB and Phase 1/2 study of ABO-102 gene therapy for mucopolysaccharidosis IIIA (Friday, Feb. 12)

Denali Therapeutics Inc DNLI 1.25%: data from Phase 1/2 study of DNL310 in mucopolysaccharidosis II patients

TCT Meeting Presentations

Gamida Cell Ltd GMDA 4.14%: results of the Phase 1 study of omidubicel versus standard myeloblative umbilical cord blood transplantation in patients with hematologic malignancies undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplant (Tuesday, Feb. 9 at 4:45-5 p.m.)

Equillium Inc EQ 8.99%: interim data from the Phase 1b/2 EQUATE study of itolizumab in acute graft-versus-host disease (Friday, Feb. 12, 3 p.m.)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd TAK 0.06%: Phase 3 data for TAK-620 in the treatment of transplant recipients with refractory/resistant cytomegalovirus infections (Friday, Feb. 12)

ASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium Presentations

Clovis Oncology Inc CLVS 17.15%: Pharmacokinetics and safety data from the phase 1b RAMP study evaluating rucaparib plus enzalutamide in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (Thursday, Feb. 11, 8 a.m.)

Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc. INFI 6.5%: Preliminary analysis of a phase 2 data for eganelisib in combination with and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's BMY 1.07% Opdivo compared to Opdivo monotherapy in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma (Thursday, Feb. 11)

BioXcel Therapeutics Inc BTAI 6.18%: updated Phase 1b/2 data for BXCL701 in combination with Merck & Co., Inc.'s MRK 0.34% Keytruda in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (Thursday, Feb. 11, 8 a.m.)

Angiogenesis, Exudation, and Degeneration 2021 Conference Presentation

Kodiak Sciences Inc KOD 3.55%: Clinical data on its investigational therapy KSI-301 in wet age-related macular degeneration and retinal vascular diseases (Saturday, Feb. 13 at 8:30 a.m.)

Earnings

Monday

Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated CORT 0.17% (after the market close)
Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc ENTA 0.93% (after the market close)

Tuesday

Incyte Corporation INCY 0.74% (before the market open)
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals Inc DCPH 0.58% (before the market open)
SurModics, Inc. SRDX 0.29% (before the market open)

Wednesday

Polypid Ltd PYPD 3.23% (before the market open)
Veru Inc VERU 23.7% (before the market open)
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. VNDA 5.28% (after the market close)
Pacific Biosciences of California Inc PACB 3.46% (after the market close)
Fluidigm Corporation FLDM 5.36% (after the market close)
Exelixis, Inc. EXEL 1.13% (after the market close)
Aethlon Medical, Inc. AEMD 10.84% (after the market close)

Thursday

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc KPTI 10.79% (before the market open)
Myovant Sciences Ltd MYOV 2.09% (before the market open)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY 4.56% (before the market open)
Applied Genetic Technologies Corp AGTC 17.37% (before the market open)
Alkermes Plc ALKS 2.62% (before the market open)
Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings LH 1.27% (before the market open)
AVITA Medical Inc RCEL 2.36% (after the market close)
Aytu Bioscience Inc AYTU 0.49% (after the market close)
Otonomy Inc OTIC 1.86% (after the market close)
Illumina, Inc. ILMN 0.06% (after the market close)
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc RARE 4.66% (after the market close)

Friday

ImmunoGen, Inc. IMGN 3.36% (before the market open)

IPOs

Adagene, Inc., a China-based, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing antibody-based cancer immunotherapies, has filed to offer 7.354 million ADSs, representing 9,1925 million ordinary shares, in an initial public offering. The company expects to price the offering in the $17-$19 range, and has applied for listing its ADSs on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol ADAG.

French clinical-stage biotech Biophytis S.A., which focuses on development of therapeutics that slow the degenerative processes associated with aging, is proposing to offer 1.2 million ADSs in an IPO. Each ADS represents the right to receive 10 ordinary shares. The offering price is expected to be between $15 and $18 per ADS. The company has applied to list its ADSs on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol BPTS.

Longeveron LLC, a clinical stage biotech developing cellular therapies for specific aging-related and life-threatening conditions, is offering 2.73 million shares at an estimated price range of $10-$12. The Miami, Florida-based company has applied for listing the shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol LGVN.

Durham, North Carolina-based Bioventus Inc. is planning a 7.53-million-share IPO, with the offering estimated to be priced between $16 and 18 apiece. The medical device company has applied for listing its shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol BVS.

https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/02/19524632/the-week-ahead-in-biotech-feb-7-13-regeneron-fda-decision-earnings-ipos-and-conference-presentati

Russia's Sputnik V COVID Vaccine A Surprise Global Hit

Bloomberg, one of the most implicitly pro-western media outlets in existence, has finally admitted, after months of promoting skepticism, that Russian COVID-19 vaccine trail data published by The Lancet shows that the Kremlin might have a surprise international success. Just days after NYT columnist Thomas Friedman accused President Putin of trusting "what comes out of the ground more than the stuff that might come out of his people's heads," Bloomberg reports that 20 countries, including key markets like India and Brazil, are already lining up to buy the vaccine.

Source: Bloomberg

With an efficacy rate above 90%, Russia's vaccine, developed by the country's Gamelaya Institute with support from Russia's sovereign wealth fund, has been found to be more effective than China's, which is why several countries - including EU member Hungary, are lining up to buy it.

At least 20 countries have approved the inoculation for use, including European Union member-state Hungary, while key markets such as Brazil and India are close to authorizing it. Now Russia is setting its sights on the prized EU market as the bloc struggles with its vaccination program amid supply shortages.

In the global battle to defeat a pandemic that’s claimed 2.3MM lives in little more than a year, the race to obtain vaccines has assumed geopolitical significance as governments seek to emerge from the huge social and economic damage caused by lockdowns imposed to limit the spread of the virus. That’s giving Russia an edge as one of a handful of countries where scientists have produced an effective defense.

The story quoted the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund which financed the vaccine project.

"This is a watershed moment for us," Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive officer of the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund, which backed Sputnik V’s development and is in charge of its international roll-out, said in an interview.

Regardless of the success of the vaccine, Bloomberg adds it won't do much to change Putin's reputation in the West.

Sputnik’s success won’t change hostility toward Putin among Western governments, though it could strengthen Russia’s geopolitical clout in regions such as Latin America, according to Oksana Antonenko, a director at Control Risks consultancy.

"With this vaccine, it’s proven itself capable of producing something new that’s in demand around the world,” she said.

Production constraints are the biggest challenge facing all manufacturers as global demand far outpaces supply. Russia, pledging free shots for its 146 million population, began output last year and the vaccine is currently being manufactured in countries including India, South Korea and Brazil.

Yet, despite Russia's supervillain status with the US and Europe, frustration with Putin's tactics has never stopped the EU from buying Russian energy products.

Why should it stop them from buying the vaccine?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russias-sputnik-v-covid-vaccine-surprise-global-hit