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Sunday, August 8, 2021

Cal. College Students Contest Vaccination Mandates To Return To Campus

 by Drew Van Voorhis via The Epoch Times,

Some students across California school systems are concerned about recently implemented requirements to get the COVID-19 vaccine prior to stepping foot on campuses again in the fall, saying it should be their decision about what they put in their bodies. 

The University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU) systems announced in July that they would be requiring all students and staff to be fully inoculated against COVID-19 by the fall semester, backtracking on their statements earlier this year that vaccinations would not be mandated unless one of them was given full approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).  

“There is no alternative here for anyone who doesn’t want to get the vaccine,” James Barr, president of Cal State Fullerton College Republicans told The Epoch Times.  

“It’s something that every student has to get now in order to continue their education, which I find repugnant in terms of [the school] administration. I don’t believe that any student should be mandated to take a vaccine in order to get their education out of the way,” he said. 

Students plan to protest the vaccination requirements on Fullerton’s campus Aug. 7, requesting either that the rules be changed, or students at least be given the option to wear a mask instead. At this point, not all classes are available online, so not every student can continue their online education if they choose not to get vaccinated.  

Barr said the point of the protest is not to oppose vaccines or tell others not to get vaccinated, but to fight for people’s right to make their own medical choices. 

“Whatever happened to ‘my body, my choice’?” Amanda McGuire, Field Director for Lincoln Club Institute, a nonprofit working to connect students with resources to fight back against vaccine mandates, told The Epoch Times.  

All students want restored is the human right to control what goes into their own bodies. We have yet to understand the effects of such a mandate as this, but they are sure to do more harm than good in every way,” she said. 

Not all students are against the mandates though, as some say they are necessary to keep the virus from spreading.  

“I think it comes down to a matter of safety more than anything, regardless of where you stand on the issue,” Josh Mitchell, president of Associated Students Inc. at CSU Fullerton, told The Epoch Times.  

“I think the university can’t in good conscience open up [without everyone vaccinated] considering how big our campus is. We have 45,000 students on campus next year and around 3,000 staff and faculty. Considering [that], if students are not vaccinated, we will have potential outbreaks, and because of that I believe that’s where the decision came from.” 

Mitchell said that he personally has not received any messages from students who have been unable to continue their education due to not being vaccinated, but he wants to work to advocate for those students.  

For some students, their opposition to the vaccine has less to do with its potential side effects and more about how it is developed. Lloyd Labriaga, president of Students for Life at UC Irvine, told The Epoch Times that because the vaccine is developed using fetal cell lines that originally come from abortions, many pro-life students do not want to take the vaccine.  

According to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health:

“In various stages of vaccine development and manufacturing, some of the COVID-19 vaccines used cells originally isolated from fetal tissue (often referred to as fetal cells), some of which were originally derived from an aborted fetus,” as stated in a recent fact sheet (pdf).

“The use of fetal cell lines is a very sensitive and important topic within some faith communities and among individuals with concerns about the ethics of using materials derived in this way.”

Labriaga also said that college students, who are typically young and do not usually have severe reactions to COVID-19, should not be the target demographic for vaccine mandates.  

“Most college students are very young, and we’re at the lowest risk levels from COVID. So why is UCI forcing us to take vaccine, wear masks, and social distance? All these three things for an age group that’s not likely going to get affected badly from it.” 

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/california-college-students-contest-vaccination-mandates-return-campus

Israeli survey finds 3rd Pfizer vaccine dose has similar side effects to 2nd

 Most people who received a third dose of Pfizer Inc's COVID-19 vaccine felt similar or fewer side effects than they did after receiving the second shot, according to an initial survey in Israel.

Israel began offering the booster shots about 10 days ago to people over age 60 as part of efforts to slow the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. That effectively turned Israel into a testing ground for a third dose before approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Israel's largest healthcare provider, Clalit, said on Sunday it had administered a third dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to more than 240,000 people.

About 4,500 people, all of whom received the booster shot from July 30 to Aug. 1, responded to questions and were included in the survey.

Eighty-eight percent of participants in the survey said that in the days after receiving the third shot, they felt "similar or better" to how they felt after the second shot.

Thirty-one percent reported some side effect, the most common being soreness at the injection site.

About 0.4% said they suffered from difficulty breathing, and 1% said they sought medical treatment due to one or more side effect.

Ran Balicer, Clalit's chief innovation officer, said that even though the results are "initial and self-reported", they allow a comparison of side effects with the second dose, and "it turns out that in most cases they are similar or less in the booster."

"Although we do not yet have long-term research on the efficacy and safety of the third booster dose, for the personal risk management of any person aged 60 plus, these findings continue to point to the benefit of immunization now, along with careful behavior among adults and avoiding gathering in closed spaces," Balicer said.

https://news.trust.org/item/20210808205128-j4h0t

U.S. teachers' union shifts stance to back vaccine mandate as COVID surges

COVID-19 vaccinations should be required for U.S. teachers to protect students who are too young to be inoculated, the head of the nation's second-largest teachers' union said on Sunday, shifting course to back mandated shots as more children fall ill.

"The circumstances have changed," Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, told NBC News' "Meet the Press" program. "It weighs really heavily on me that kids under 12 can't get vaccinated."

"I felt the need ... to stand up and say this as a matter of personal conscience," she said.

The number of children hospitalized with COVID is rising across the country, a trend health experts attribute to the Delta variant being more likely to infect children than the original Alpha strain.

Almost 90% of educators and school staff https://bit.ly/2VC8EeL are vaccinated, according to a White House statement echoed by Weingarten in other television interviews last week.

A growing number of companies and state governments are mandating COVID-19 vaccinations. United Airlines, meatpacker Tyson Foods Inc and Microsoft are requiring employees get vaccinated, moves that experts said were legal but could raise labor tensions in unionized workplaces.

California, New York and Virginia are also requiring all state employees to get inoculated, and New Jersey is requiring some workers in health care to take the vaccine.

Becky Pringle, president of the largest U.S. teachers' union, the National Education Association, told the New York Times last week that any vaccine mandate should be negotiated at the local level.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease official, said it was critical to surround children with vaccinated and masked people in schools and elsewhere until shots are approved for them.

"You surround them with those who can be vaccinated, whoever they are -- teachers, personnel in the schools, anyone - get them vaccinated. Protect the kids with a shield of vaccinated people," he said in a separate interview on NBC, noting that pediatric hospitals are filling up with COVID cases.

The United States has reported more than 100,000 new cases a day on average for the past two days, a six-month high, according to a Reuters tally. About 400 people a day on average are dying. Hospitalizations are the highest since last February. (Graphic on U.S. cases and deaths https://tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR)

The U.S. South remains the epicenter of the latest outbreak, with Florida reporting a record of nearly 24,000 new cases on Saturday, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days.

The number of COVID patients filling the state's hospitals has set records nearly every day for the past week.

"Things in Florida aren't just bad -- they're epically bad," cardiologist Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a George Washington University professor, told CNN on Sunday, noting its case rate was behind only Louisiana and Botswana. "If Florida was another country, the United States would consider banning travel from Florida ... It's going to get much worse there."

Despite the surge, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has refused to mandate masks and has blocked school districts from requiring them, despite the state leading the nation in pediatric hospitalizations https://bit.ly/3xD1TXq based on its population.

Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said not requiring masks for students as they return to full-day, in-person learning was reckless, telling CBS News' "Face the Nation" program: "No business would do that responsibly and yet that's what we're going to be doing in some schools."

He also urged schools and families to utilize higher-quality masks such as N95s to protect against the more contagious Delta variant, noting that Utah was providing KN95 masks for every student.

https://news.yahoo.com/u-teachers-union-shifts-stance-154443304.html

'Scrap the Old COVID Script for Act Four'

 "Everyone is confused." That was part of the headline in a July 23 article in Reuters about new mask rules for the vaccinated amid escalating COVID-19 cases. You might think that a year and a half into such an enormous public health crisis, all sources of confusion would be gone, but sadly it's the opposite. Why?

Science consists of two parts: 1) research and 2) communication.

On the research side, at the start of the pandemic, there was an outcry during the Trump administration to throw everything possible into developing a vaccine. And later for deployment, the Biden administration laid out plan after plan to get the country vaccinated as efficiently as possible. However, a key ingredient has been missing all along: a communications plan.

Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, identified the seriousness of the communication problem last October on NBC's "Meet the Press" when he said, "we don't have one consolidated voice." He also noted the failure to draw on the power of story.

We're still paying dearly for the failure to establish effective communications today.

Simultaneous with the lack of focus on effective mass communication was the emergence of an anti-science voice at a level never before seen. It produced a resistance to everything from masks to vaccines, complicated by advocates of unproven treatments like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. All of which has led to headlines like, "Everyone is confused."

Communications Lessons from Professional Storytellers

There are many aspects to the communications challenge, but there is one specific new tool that addresses Osterholm's plea for a singular voice. The problem is based in narrative dynamics.

For over a century, Hollywood has focused its efforts on how to use the power of narrative to connect with audiences. The result has been a great deal of knowledge of the practical side of narrative that has only sparingly been shared with the general public.

One of the simplest and most important observations came from legendary screenwriting instructor Frank Daniel in a 1986 speech about the shaping of material from a first draft to a final draft. He boiled basic narrative structure down to two paragraphs, saying:

"Monotony is a problem in first drafts. One reason for it is that the scenes follow in the forbidden pattern: and then, and then, and then."

"In a dramatic story the pattern is: 'and then,' 'but,' 'therefore.' If you don't have this 'but' and 'therefore' connection between the parts, the story becomes linear, monotonous. Diaries and chronicles are written that way, but not scripts."

He was talking about screenwriting, but the principle applies just as well to the communication of science to the public. That last line could be rewritten as, "Laboratory notebooks and journals are written that way, but not public communication."

It is this transition from pure information into the narrative structure that Osterholm was pleading for. In simple terms, "Narrative is leadership." People don't follow leaders who are boring or confusing. They follow leaders who are able to wield the power of narrative structure to deliver information that is concise and compelling to a broad audience.

The secret to accomplishing this lies in what Daniel identified: The three key words of andbuttherefore, and the powers they embody -- agreement, contradiction, consequence. The words come together in a simple tool called the ABT Narrative Template, which is this single sentence: "___ and ___ but ___ therefore ___."

Applying the Narrative Model to COVID Communications

This is the tool that every COVID-19 communicator needs to be working with every day in all communication. It is the tool that distills down the central message to the three basic elements of setup (the context), problem, and solution.

For example: The public is not crazy in feeling confused by contradictory messages and there are multiple perspectives on what do to, but right now daily COVID-19 cases are again topping 100,000, therefore what is needed is ...

"What is our ABT?" needs to be the central question for all communications teams.

We are now training thousands of scientists and communicators from government agencies (National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Geological Survey, Federal Aviation Administration, Army Corps of Engineers, and many others) in the ABT Framework. Last year, I published a short article in Scientific American explaining the relevance of the ABT to medical training. Now, the ABT Framework is desperately needed to help combat the cloud of confusion plaguing COVID-19 communication.

It's not the singular solution to the problem, but it is a solid resource that is needed everywhere in the communication of the pandemic to put an end to headlines that say, "Everyone is confused."

Randy Olson, PhD, is a scientist-turned-filmmaker. He is the author of "Houston, We Have A Narrative" and 2020 recipient of the John P. McGovern Award for Excellence in Biomedical Communication from the American Medical Writers Association.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/second-opinions/93949

Virtual reality will change trading for pros and everyone else

 The work-from-home boom has given several virtual reality (VR) companies incentive to experiment with new ways of trading.

While platforms are rapidly evolving and firms are putting themselves in a position to sell the new technology, it’s not a big business yet — but many believe it will be soon.

Glimpse Group is an umbrella company for several different VR businesses with real-world applications. The company went public last month and has eight VR groups in its portfolio, including telehealth, entertainment, and learning programs for schools and businesses.

They’re also focused on stock trading through a business called D6 VR. It was developed by former Morgan Stanley analyst Andy Maggio who told CNBC in an interview, “I believe VR will be the most transformative technology in our lifetime.” While Maggio admits the technology isn’t quite ready for prime-time, he says the quality of the technology is rapidly improving. “The resolution is double what it was five years ago, the hardware is moving forward very quickly, it’s lighter and easier to use,” he said.

While several financial firms have experimented with the technology, none are making plans to tear down their physical trading floors anytime soon.

Former hedge fund manager and Glimpse Group CEO Lyron Bentovim isn’t surprised by the pace. “Wall Street is slow to adapt, but this is the future of trading,” he said.

Bentovim makes the argument that a trader can see usually six to eight screens at the most in the physical space. “You’re limited,” he said. With VR you’ll be able to see and interact with dozens of screens and layer data upon data. “I can see a trader observing multiple trends and then immersing him or herself in the data without being constricted by physical limits,” he said.

While Glimpse Group tries to make a name for itself in the space, it isn’t the first to enter. British firm FlexTrade, which specializes in creating software for financial companies, presented its first VR program for traders at a 2017 conference. 

“Traders just don’t have enough real estate on their desk,” said Managing Director Andy Mahoney. “We can do better than a keyboard, screen and a mouse.”

In test rounds, Mahoney found that full-scale VR made traders sick because it was too disorienting. With new enhancements, however, that’s becoming less problematic. 

FlexTrade’s research and development team has been giving clients test runs on augmented reality which incorporates a suite of data, charts and information into a real-world setting so that users see things in both the real and virtual world at the same time.

“Clients love it, but they still don’t think we’re there yet… but we will be soon,” said Mahoney.

“The real advantage is the ability to visualize data in multiple dimensions,” according to D6′s Chief Technical Officer Brennan McTernan.

He believes there are three areas where VR is becoming more valuable to the financial industry. 

The first is for traders, allowing them to break out of a physical space and customize data and research. The second is seeing data in 3D and being able to control for size and color, and for overlaying data on top of other data. The third, McTernan said, is that “financial advisors can tell clients a better story and help explain the data better with virtual reality.” 

Executives in the space admit it can be uncomfortable and disorienting to wear a headset for multiple hours at a time. But they also make the case VR allows the potential for clients and financial professionals to work free from distractions, at least for part of their day.

As far as adoption is concerned, the team at Glimpse is ready to be patient. CEO Bentovim said, “there was a time when nobody had a computer on their desk, then the tide turned very quickly.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/08/how-virtual-reality-will-change-trading-for-pros-and-everyone-else.html

A Detailed Look At Who Is Buying Bitcoin Here

 The past two weeks saw some of the strongest crypto returns this year, with the broader crypto index rallying around 25%. The move started when bitcoin (BTC) rocketed 15% in a two-hour window during early Asia time on Monday 26 July.

As we noted at the time, a break of the $35,000 level triggered stops on short positions, undermining record-high cash-margined futures open interest.

While many stories tried to tie the move to Amazon.com's posting of a job advert for a lead crypto analyst, this was not the catalyst as the news had first hid two days earlier, and the company was quick to quash speculation that it suggested they would consider accepting BTC payments.

Echoing our take that the move was a squeeze and technical in nature, UBS strategist Alexey Ostapchuk writes in his weekly "Crypto Compass" note that "underlining its technical nature, price momentum ran out of steam right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, extending a clear  downtrend from May which now becomes immediate resistance around 41k. Above that the 200dma comes in around 45k, then the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibos near 47k and 51k, respectively."

While the rest of the crypto space was dragged up in the buying frenzy, but Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ether (ETH) and XRP proved to be subsequent standouts

Taking a modest tangent here, we look at a recent analysis by Copper.co of on-chain data which confirms UBS' observations and reflects that small to medium investors have returned to accumulation ever since Bitcoin hit the $35k mark at the end of May. The fact that the  cryptocurrency dropped further to $30k was, by on-chain metric standards, seen as a cost-averaging opportunity. Simply said, retail buyers accumulated more.

Digging deeper, Copper founds that since the start of this year, on-chain data shows that entity holding between 0 and 1 BTC increased by 137k Bitcoins, equivalent to 72% of newly mined supply. Meanwhile, miner balances have actually increased since the start of the year, meaning, not all mined Bitcoins have come to market.

While it may seem that we’re speaking about small amounts of Bitcoin, context is important. These small amounts of accumulated Bitcoin are more than triple Tesla’s now infamous purchase. These investors have also accumulated more than MicroStrategies ballooned treasury of 105k Bitcoins. There is a key point to further consider. The demand by these investors has been and remains very consistent.

In 2021 alone, entity holding between 0.01 and 0.1 BTC increased by over 40k Bitcoins. Between 0.1 and 1 BTC entity holdings saw a huge 86k increase. But more interesting is the fact that it was only on a few days of the year did these entity holdings decrease.

This category of investors is seemingly price agnostic. Since the end of 2013 when Bitcoin hit over $1000 for the first time, these entity holdings never saw a month in decline. Since 2018, when Bitcoin met its top before declining from near $20k to $3k, entity holdings have grown by nearly 500k. Every month saw growth.

So linear is the growth of smaller investors that Copper did some simple extrapolation on how retail might chip away at the supply, Satoshi-by Satoshi.

What if found is that average monthly growth rates for entity holdings have been fairly close year-on-year (see chart 4). And considering the consistent level of growth since 2018, Copper assessed the market supply should these levels continue and long-term investors remain price agnostic. After all, a near $65k BTC didn’t scare them off. Should growth continue at this pace up until Bitcoin reaches its next miner reward halving, entity holdings could grow to nearly 1.7mn BTC from just under 1mn today. This would account for nearly 75% of new mined Bitcoin (see chart 5).

Of course, there will come a time when price will matter. But to date, this can’t actually be seen by smaller investors. Growth has been particularly steady. And these entity holdings have increased more in the first seven months of 2021 than in all of 2020 already - at sky high prices (see chart 6).

This doesn’t account for institutional buyers. And what also needs to be considered despite not having actual figures, is that there is Bitcoin sitting on exchanges that also represents retail investors are accumulating.

The bottom line:

Small investors can make a big difference. Are these investors potentially new entrants attempting to gain a small slice of Bitcoin? Or perhaps traders rotating profits into Bitcoin? Listening in on the crypto community can seem particularly obnoxious to proponents of the traditional investor class. Every dip is an opportunity no matter the losses. Hold on to bitcoin for life. The institutions are coming. But what’s scarier is that so far, despite grandiose claims, they’ve been fairly accurate. One thing that time will test is the concept of “Stacking Sats”. Maybe they know something. So far, the data supports it.

To be sure, some of these moves can be traced to idiosyncratic developments: the launch of SmartBCH sidechain, Ethereum's widely anticipated and just completed 'London' hard fork, and Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity service. Notably, ETH is following the pattern it mapped around its seven previous upgrades quite closely.

It is also worth noting that with Ethereum volumes now surpassing those of bitcoin...

... it may be just a matter of time before ETH becomes the biggest cryptocurrency and has a lower volatility than its historically larger peer...

... especially if ETH is subject to a major gamma squeeze: as shown below, the bulk of long-dated ETH option strikes are in the 5000 and higher range, while most short-dated bitcoin option straks are below the current spot price.

Still, as Ostapchuk notes, "it's worth recognizing that these are all bigger market-cap coins which tend to be less volatile so would normally be laggards in any bull market.That this is instead an environment where market interest is unusually concentrated probably speaks of the hangover that is still affecting retail interest. It may also say something about attention focusing on better prospects for institutional adoption in the face of greater legal clarity."

As the UBS strategist goes on, headline comparisons and on-chain metrics further illustrate some of these dynamics. Compared with BTC and ETH, most altcoins remain substantially further from their recent all-time highs. 

Which brings us to arguably the key question: who's buying?

According to Ostapchuk, the main bitcoin buyers continue to be medium-size whales, holders of 10k-100k coins, generally at the expense of bigger entities. Remarkably, the smallest cohort of users that own less than 1 BTC saw the next-largest increase in holdings having absorbed 131% of new bitcoins minted over the last fortnight.

Furthermore, the recovery in on-chain activity was primarily driven by receiving entities and accumulation addresseswith the former count now back at January levels and the latter reaching a new peak. Meanwhile, exchange balances and the number of pure senders remain low amid sub-par transaction volumes.

Separately, as noted recently, mining difficulty has rebounded with prices but remains well below its pre-China crackdown levels, lifting BTC issuance back to mid-May rates of growth.

As Ostapchuk summarizes, "such things generally accord with our composite measures that show trendiness scores below normal and no major coin prices screening as particularly stretched."

* * *

Away from market dynamics and looking at the news front, UBS points to a few holdouts like ShapeShift are going to extreme lengths to remain outside the regulatory fold. But most service providers are scrambling to become more compliant. Thus, Binance and FTX cut permitted maximum trading leverage on their platforms from 100 times or more to 'just' 20 so as to deflect attention and enhance consumer protection. Both face increased scrutiny over the 'open secret' that they have thus far done little to prevent US consumers from trading through their unregulated offshore entities. This was one of the points which Gary Gensler emphasized in a speech at the Aspen Security Forum on Tuesday. He also said that securing compliance from trading, lending and DeFi platforms should be a legislative priority, and that the Howey Test remained sufficient and suggested many digital assets are indeed securities so require registration. On a more accommodating note, he said he was looking forward to receiving SEC staff reviews of crypto ETF applications, especially those linked to BTC futures.

BlockFi also received a cease and desist order for new account openings in the first such clampdown on a platform that pays users a substantial (4-8% annualized) yield for staking cryptocurrencies that are then used to provide dollar loans. The New Jersey Attorney General alleges that these represent unregistered securities, and other states like Alabama and Texas have since followed suit. Such action is already reverberating across the sector. Another well-known industry name, Uniswap, delisted around 100 offerings on its trading interface, including tokenized stocks, options and indices.

The long-running Department of Justice investigation into Tether ratcheted up a notch just after the Fed and Treasury signalled their heightened focus on stablecoins. Bloomberg reported that executives there may have committed bank fraud by hiding the fact that their early business dealings were linked to crypto. Paxos also turned on its larger rivals in a scathing blog post. Fully 96% of its reserves are held in FDIC-insured cash deposits along with a further 4% in US Treasury bills; the equivalents for USDT and USDC are 4%+3% and 61%, respectively, with much of the remainder being unsecured commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds and some longer-dated Treasuries.

We got two surprises out of Washington. One was wrapped up in the much anticipated bipartisan infrastructure bill, which now incorporates enhanced supervision of digital asset transactions via the IRS to fund around USD28bn of the USD550bn in new outlays. Lobbying efforts by the Bitcoin Association and others succeeded in tightening the definition of 'brokers' in the final draft, though the USD10,000 threshold on transaction reporting stands. Some further changes are inevitable as it works its way through the Senate and the requirements won't go into effect until 2023. But this clearly marks a ratcheting up of the pressure on VASPs, who have hitherto been enjoying an unfair advantage over their legacy financial sector peers. The other twist came from Don Beyer (D-VA), chairman of Congress' Joint Economic Committee. He introduced a bill 'seemingly out of fresh air' that seeks to establish comprehensive oversight of crypto industry. Observers describe it as remarkably well researched and the most impressive piece of such legislation to date, making it too worth watching even if its immediate prospects for becoming law are less clear.

Finally, a handful of useful crypto charts courtesy of UBS:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/detailed-look-who-buying-bitcoin-here

Use systems redesign and the law to prevent medical errors and accidents

 This summer, surgeons at University Hospitals in Cleveland transplanted a donor kidney into the wrong patient, while the patient the kidney had been destined for had to go back on the waiting list for another one to become available.

The most surprising thing about the story is not that a serious medical error occurred, but that it found its way into the news.

Injury or illness caused by the healer is called iatrogenic harm. It’s so widespread, so frequent, so massive, and so continuous that it rarely makes headlines. And unlike a plane crash or a building collapse, the vast majority of iatrogenic deaths can be kept under wraps — and they are.

Death by medical error or accident is the nation’s leading cause of accidental death, exceeding all other causes of accidental death combined. Medical error and accidents kill approximately as many people each month in the U.S. as Covid-19 did before vaccines became available.

Yet there’s no Operation Warp Speed for preventing medical errors, no national investment of billions of dollars to develop solutions, and no national urgency about solving the problem.

The size of the problem

Studies to determine the incidence of errors leading to injuries and deaths in hospitals began in the early 1970s. A meta-analysis of such studies concluded that the average annual death rate from such errors in the first decade of the 2000s was in the neighborhood of 250,000. That’s more than enough to make medical care gone awry the number three cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and cancer.

“In almost no other field would consumers tolerate the frequency of error that is common in medicine,” Donald Berwick, co-founder of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, told the New York Times about medical errors in 2007.

Because hospital medical records often do not list incidents of iatrogenic harm, novel methods have been developed to detect it. The Institute for Health care Improvement created a technique known as the Global Trigger, which scours medical records for subtle indications that a patient suffered unexpected harm. A 2013 meta-analysis of Global Trigger studies found 10 times as many adverse events as found by conventional records reviews, with deaths numbering as many as 440,000 per year. Other studies, using on-scene observers, have found comparable numbers of incidents.

But hospitals are not the only place where health care is delivered. Vastly more patient contacts occur outside of hospitals, where the error profile is different, dominated by diagnostic and medication errors. The limited data that exist suggest that the number of deaths caused by iatrogenic harm outside of hospitals is roughly equal to the number that occur inside hospitals.

The nature of medical errors

The causes of harm vary widely: slips of the scalpel, lapses like mixing up lab results, faulty decision-making, inadequate training, evasion of known safety practices, miscommunication, equipment failures, and many more.

The ease with which medical errors can occur is striking. To perform a bronchoscopy to remove a sunflower seed that went down a 2-year-old’s airway instead of his esophagus, a doctor in New Mexico inadvertently sedated the boy with an adult dose of morphine, which caused him to stop breathing and led to severe permanent brain damage. A lab in New York state mislabeled a tissue sample, causing a woman who did not have breast cancer to get a double mastectomy while cancer kept growing inside the woman who had the disease. Surgeons still sometimes get left and right confused, and it’s not uncommon for patients to get the wrong medication or the wrong dose, as happened to Boston Globe health reporter Betsy Lehman, who died from an overdose of chemotherapy drugs that were miscalculated.

Varied causes require varied solutions. A singular success story comes from anesthesiology. Anesthesiologists studied the mistakes that were leading to lawsuits and developed procedures and tools to enable them to work more safely. Thanks to this work, the incidence of deaths caused by general anesthesia fell from more than 1 in 5,000 patients in the 1950s through the 1980s to as few as 1 in 250,000 by 2000 — a 50-fold improvement. Other specialties, however, have not found comparable paths to improvement.

Sometimes the seemingly simplest of problems resist solution. Health care providers don’t always sanitize their hands between patients, thereby spreading infection. Achieving high rates of hand hygiene compliance has proven to be a persistent challenge for infection control specialists.

The current thinking is that solutions to medical errors are more likely to be found at the organizational level rather than expecting individual clinicians to be aware of all relevant facts at all relevant times and take all the right actions. Hospitals have many moving parts: caregivers of many kinds, layers of support staff, a variety of patients, an array of devices and tools, an even broader array of medications, records, procedures, protocols, treatment spaces, and more. If the right pieces do not come together in the right place, at the right time, and in the right way, mistakes can happen. The systems approach holds that the “system” controlling these interconnecting parts needs to be redesigned to make it harder for things to go wrong. That strategy has achieved considerable success in other industries, such as manufacturing and commercial aviation. This approach assumes that humans will often make mistakes and that the most effective road to patient safety is to error-proof the system.

Consider the example of an Illinois hospital that committed to reducing medication-related accidents and errors. It hired a team of systems engineers who studied the entire process throughout the hospital, identified causes of errors, and proposed a thoroughgoing redesign (without having the luxury of computer-based order entry). The team found that each unit within the hospital had its own medication ordering procedures, each creating its own confusion, adding to the problem of physicians’ handwritten orders often being illegible. Many errors resulted from miscopying or omitting or losing physicians’ orders. Nursing staff frequently interrupted pharmacists about problems such as missing medications, causing them to lose focus on the task they were engaged in, leading to additional errors. The team’s goal was to cut errors in half, but their system redesign achieved a 90% reduction in errors.

Overcoming barriers to solutions

Individual caregivers are in no position to discover, design, and implement changes to the systems they work in. Yet both malpractice liability and medical discipline, formal and informal, focus on the provider, while the organization and its leaders usually avoid consequences. Paradoxically, then, accountability often attaches to individual providers who cannot make necessary changes, while the managers who can make needed changes don’t have the necessary incentives to do so.

Indeed, existing incentives push the wrong way. Because iatrogenic harm requires additional medical care, errors bring more revenue into the organization, though of course no hospital administrator sees errors as a way of generating more revenue. Meanwhile, system redesign requires money, time, and new expertise. If management made those investments, and succeeded in preventing harm, the organization would be rewarded by seeing its income fall.

Where will the “business case” for safety come from? Not from malpractice liability. Only a fraction of cases of iatrogenic harm ever become legal claims for compensation. Traditionally, for every dollar the health care industry generates in patient harm (what economists term “externalities”), the legal system recovers only a few pennies. Law reforms promoted by the health care industry have, in the past two decades, cut by half both the number of malpractice suits and total compensation paid to victims.

The law, however, can be more innovative. We describe several existing and possible incentive-based approaches in our book, “Closing Death’s Door.” For example, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has instituted several denial-of-payment programs that refuse to pay for avoidable care, such as treatment for serious hospital-acquired conditions. Another example, Pigouvian taxation — designed to rein in environmental harm by taxing polluters in amounts reflecting the costs being imposed by the polluters on the society around them — could be adapted to health care, for example, by taxing hospitals for the cost of care necessitated by preventable iatrogenic harm. As hospitals improve safety and reduce harm, the tax would decrease in ways that make safety profitable.

Another possible solution to medical errors is enterprise liability. All health care providers, including surgeons, who tend to be independent and have their own liability insurance, would become affiliates of hospitals or other health care organizations. Those organizations would then be responsible for all harm caused by their affiliates, and individual providers would no longer be subject to liability. This arrangement, so the thinking goes, would place organizations in the best position to make care safer while also giving them the incentives to want to.

Systems redesign is the solution favored by leaders of the patient safety movement. But it will not be undertaken without first creating a business case for investing in safety. And that requires major changes in the incentives that drive the decisions of health care industry executives.

It’s hard to imagine legislators finding the will to adopt even so well-examined an idea as enterprise liability, which pushes in a direction the health care industry is already moving. And it’s even harder to imagine legislators imposing taxes aimed at countering the financial burdens that iatrogenic harm imposes on the public.

In the foreseeable future, then, we believe the best hope for reducing the epidemic of health care harm will come from smaller steps, some taken within the health care industry and some from legislation and regulation and funding coming from outside. Those smaller steps might include such things as expanded denial-of-payment programs; government regulation of high-risk, high-revenue procedures; support for safety research; encouragement for adoption of both established and new safety strategies and tactics; continuing support for advances in information technology; and others.

The one thing we can be sure of is that if the health care industry and the law continue on their customary paths, the long-lasting epidemic of iatrogenic injuries and deaths will continue to be a permanent feature of American health care.

Michael J. Saks is a social psychologist and professor of law in the Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University and a fellow of the university’s Center for Law, Science, and Innovation. Stephan Landsman is emeritus professor of law and director of the Clifford Symposium on Tort Law and Social Policy at the DePaul University College of Law. They are the authors of “Closing Death’s Door: Legal Innovations to End the Epidemic of Healthcare Harm” (Oxford University Press, 2021).

https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/04/medical-errors-accidents-ongoing-preventable-health-threat/