'COVID-19 transmission higher in households than in workplaces, schools or community'

 New research out of York University has found the transmission of COVID-19 is much higher in households than in workplaces, schools or the community as the potential for prolonged contact with infected people is greater in the home.

The researchers looked at testing rates and turnaround times, vaccine efficacy, coverage and transmission, waning immunity, and public health measures under various lockdown, reopening and resurgence scenarios—from March to December 2020—to find the best global vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 outbreaks.

They found testing helped mitigate transmission between members of the same household if results were available within the first 24 hours. PCR testing was widely available during this time, which is more sensitive than the current rapid tests, although the researchers believe even this testing is likely to help to curb transmission between family members. Ideally, public health resources would be available for PCR testing.

"Although vaccination helped decrease virus transmission, testing remains an important tool for virus containment as it allows people to isolate sooner," says York University Professor Huaiping Zhu of York University's Canadian Center for Disease Modeling in the Faculty of Science and the corresponding author.

The study also looked at what percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated based on the level of immunity to the virus in the community. To control COVID-19 infections when there is waning immunity, 90% of the public needs to be vaccinated. If waning immunity isn't an issue, only 60% of the population needs to be vaccinated with a vaccine that is at least 70% effective.

Waning immunity could be an issue now heading into winter as recent uptake for booster shots, particularly the bivalent, has been low.

The research team, including lead authors York Postdoctoral Fellows Elena Aruffo and Pei Yuan, found short immunity times coupled with an early relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask wearing and isolation, are key drivers for disease resurgence.

"High vaccination rates help delay a re-emergence of infection and give public health time to implement new measures. However, even with widespread vaccination, if we are in a high transmission phase of the virus, either most symptomatic people need to be tested or a short testing turnaround time is needed," says Zhu, director of the NSERC-PHAC "One Health Modeling Network" OMNI.

Vaccine efficacy and distribution, waning immunity and public health measures all play a role in the degree of virus transmission.

"How quickly immunity wanes after vaccination could dictate how the vaccine is best rolled out," says Zhu. "If immunity lasts a long time, then a fast distribution of vaccine is most beneficial, whereas if the immunity time is short, a slower distribution is more effective as everyone won't become susceptible at the same time."

The research team's model is based on Toronto case data, but can be applied to any region.

The paper, "Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: a mathematical study," is published in the journal PLOS ONE.

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More information: Elena Aruffo et al, Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study, PLOS ONE (2022). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258648

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-10-covid-transmission-higher-households-workplaces.html

Kate Middleton urges alcoholics and drug addicts to get help in new video

 

The Princess of Wales has a message for alcoholics and drug addicts: Get help — don’t suffer in silence. 

Kate Middleton, the patron of The Forward Trust, filmed a video message to launch the charity’s new Taking Action on Addiction campaign, according to the Sunday Times of London.

In the clip, the 40-year-old royal describes addiction as “a serious mental health condition that can happen to anyone, no matter what age, gender, race or nationality.” She urges that “recovery is possible.”

According to the charity Alcohol Change UK, there are more than 600,000 dependent drinkers in England, with only 18% seeking treatment. 

“Attitudes to addiction are changing,” Middleton says in the video. “But we are not there yet, and we need to be. Still, the shame of addiction is stopping people and families asking for help, and people are still, tragically, losing their lives.

Kate Middleton, patron of The Forward Trust, has filmed a video message to launch the charity’s Taking Action on Addiction campaign.

Tim Rooke/Shutterstock
“We as a society need to recognize that the only way to help those suffering is to try and understand what has led them to addiction, to empathize with them and to be compassionate to their struggles.”
https://nypost.com/2022/10/29/kate-middleton-urges-addicts-to-get-help-in-new-video/

Loose syringes, dropped drugs hurting pets in NYC’s Tompkins Square Park

 Man’s best friend has been living the high life at Tompkins Square Park, gobbling up pot and cocaine — and even getting jabbed by hypodermic needles — as rampant, unchecked drug use has exploded in the green space and rest of the East Village, horrified owners told The Post.

“I was so mad — all I did was take her to the park,” said Fiorella Garcia, 26, whose pointer mix, Carla, tested positive for cocaine and THC after a morning run in the park’s grassy knoll this summer.

“She’s a puppy. You don’t know what she’s getting into.”

Benton McClintock, 25, said his 5-year-old Cavalier spaniel-bichon mix, Rusti, had been poked on several occasions. Two weeks ago he stepped on a discarded needle near East 9th Street and Avenue A, just months after he was jabbed by a syringe left near the park’s East 7th Street and Avenue A entrance.

“I’m lucky he hasn’t had any need to go to the vet for any of it,” McClintock said.

But the drugs aren’t all going to the dogs — at least one cat has endured a needle poke in recent months.

The feline’s owner “was cursing. He was like ‘What the f–k, you dirty motherf–kers, you’re always doing things in the park!” said stunned witness Gloria Martinez, 28. “The whole crowd of junkies sitting [nearby] walked away.”

Dogs have been poked with needles and have found drugs in Tompkins Square Park.

The park has always had a reputation as being rough around the edges, with isolated cases of poked pups like poor pitbull mix Floki, who was stuck with a discarded syringe in in 2020. But the scourge of drugs and used needles littering Tompkins has surged since the pandemic, according to residents, following a wave of new harm-reduction laws aimed at combatting the opioid crisis.

In October 2021, Gov. Hochul signed a law decriminalizing the possession and sale of hypodermic needles, and removing a cap on how many syringes medical sites can provide. An NYPD decree also ordered cops not to cuff addicts shooting up in public.

“Right now, everyone’s [like] ‘let’s hand out needles to addicts,’” cried former dog park manager Garrett Russo, 62. “Where do you think those needles end up?”

The amount of used needles in Tompkins Square Park has skyrocketed since the start of the pandemic.

J.C. Rice

The Sanitation Department’s syringe collection unit reported collecting 69,692 discarded or improperly disposed needles across the five boroughs in fiscal year 2022, more than double the 32,252 collected during the same period last year.

Residents also worry that legalizing weed has effectively emboldened addicts to use harder substances in broad daylight, leading to more narcotics and paraphernalia littering the ground.

“Now there’s even more license to use something on the street,” said dog walker Jane Kelton, 67. “I see all these people furtively lighting up stuff that isn’t pot.”

A cat has also been poked by a littered needle in recent months.

Helayne Seidman

Members of the tight-knit dog community recounted in recent weeks curious hounds picking up syringes as they would sticks, and pooches gobbling down used joints and having seizures.

Parks Department spokesperson Dan Kastanis said its staff has largely kept areas popular among dogs needle-free in Tompkins and has not received any reports of pets sickened by drug-related items.

“Our goal is to keep park-goers safe — the fewer syringes on the ground the better — that is why our staff are specially trained to remove and properly dispose of discarded needles,” Kastanis said. 

Fiorella Garcia’s pointer mix Carla tested positive for THC and cocaine after going to Tompkins Square Park.

J.C. Rice

An NYPD spokesperson said that the 9th Precinct has been deploying officers in Tompkins to address drug-related concerns, in addition to locking the park and illuminating a light tower overnight. It added that narcotics arrests citywide are up 10 percent year-to-date through Oct. 23.

Park-goers warned that it is only a matter of time before tragedy strikes.

“If it’s dogs now, then when is it kids?” asked dog run regular Hannah Harrison, 32. “It’s not gonna get better.”

https://nypost.com/2022/10/29/loose-syringes-dropped-drugs-hurting-pets-in-nycs-tompkins-square-park/

'Musk to provide choice in different versions of Twitter'

 

Twitter users could in future choose a version of the social media platform they like by providing ratings on their tweets,

Elon Musk, the new owner of the company, said in a tweet on Saturday.

"Being able to select which version of Twitter you want is probably better, much as it would be for a movie maturity rating," he said.

"The rating of the tweet itself could be self-selected, then modified by user feedback," he added.

Musk tweeted on Friday that Twitter will form a content moderation council "with widely diverse viewpoints." No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before the council convenes, he added.

https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Elon-Musk-1364/news/Musk-to-provide-choice-in-different-versions-of-Twitter--42128080/

Arizona GOP Governor Frontrunner Kari Lake Accuses Legacy Media Of Spreading 'Fake News' Of Burglary

 by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Arizona Republican governor frontrunner Kari Lake lashed out at the legacy media for spreading “fake news” about her alleged involvement in a burglary of Democratic rival Katie Hobbs’ campaign headquarters on Oct. 25, without providing evidence.

In a 30-minute press conference the day after the break-in, Lake claimed that the only reason Hobbs accused her was that she was losing in the polls.

“Guys, we’re going to do a tutorial on how fake bogus, defamatory news is made,” Lake told a gauntlet of legacy media outlets in Phoenix.

“We know the world is watching us.”

Lake said while meeting with police officers and firefighters, “my desperate opponent, who is sinking like a lead weight in water, pulled a stunt, and you guys fell for it. She put out a defamatory statement, and you all ran with it.”

“You didn’t do your journalistic duty. It was malpractice in journalism like I’ve never seen before. And it was an effort, I believe, to influence this election.”

Burglary Claims

On Oct. 26, the Arizona Democratic Party, without any supporting evidence, said the burglary was a “direct result” of Lake and “Republicans spreading lies and hate.”

“Make no mistake—this is a direct result of Kari Lake, and fringe Republicans spreading lies and hate and inciting violence—and it is despicable,” the Democratic Party affiliate said in a statement on Twitter.

In a statement, Hobbs’ campaign manager, Nicole DeMont, echoed those remarks without evidence of Lake’s alleged involvement in the burglary.

“Let’s be clear: for nearly two decades, Kari Lake and her allies have been spreading dangerous misinformation and inciting threats against anyone they see fit,” DeMont said.

“The threats against Arizonans attempting to exercise their constitutional rights and their attacks on elected officials are the direct result of a concerted campaign of lies and intimidation.”

Arizona Secretary of State and candidate for governor Katie Hobbs speaks to reporters in Tolleson, Ariz., on Aug. 2, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Arrest Made

Police have arrested a man in connection with the break-in but would not release his identity. Nor would they say whether the crime was politically motivated.

Lake, who leads Hobbs in a Fox10 news poll 54-43 percent, accused many in the legacy media of being “an arm of the Democrat Party.”

“Many of you are propagandists. And you all should be ashamed.”

“She [Hobbs] knew darned well I had nothing to do with it. So she puts out a statement, and right away, your gatekeepers here at the Democrat Party jump on it. And they put out a statement, which was the cue to you to start running with it.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/arizona-gop-governor-frontrunner-kari-lake-accuses-legacy-media-spreading-fake-news

FDA’s Menthol Vape Ban Shows It Is Not Science-Based

 On October 26, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued its first market denial orders for menthol vaping products. Its justification for the decision was “the application does not demonstrate that these menthol-flavored e-cigarettes are more effective in promoting complete switching or significant cigarette use reduction relative to tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes among adult smokers.”

This is yet another surprise sprung on manufacturers who believed that the FDA would make decisions based on science rather than moral panic and political disquiet. When businesses applied for authorization for their products, there was no indication that the FDA required non-tobacco flavors to be more efficacious than tobacco flavor for helping adult smokers quit. Moreover, it is arguably not even possible to prove this with any science-based process. Each individual vaper has their own subjective taste when it comes to flavors, meaning that each flavor could be the most useful for switching depending on the individual.

Tobacco is also a flavor and works the same way any other flavors work. There is no evidence that any flavor is superior to another for smoking cessation, and most certainly no evidence that tobacco flavor is superior to all others. The FDA’s justification is about as scientific as feeling in one’s bones that it is about to rain.

In effect, the FDA has abandoned adhering to scientific method and reviewing products in an objective fashion, and instead created an arbitrary measure which can satisfy a political goal rather than one which would improve public health. Comparing menthol and other vape flavors with tobacco flavor products has no health merit whatsoever. The real comparison should be with combustible tobacco smoke which kills around 480,000 Americans every year.

It is baffling how the FDA considers it appropriate for the protection of public health to prohibit products which are at least 95 percent less harmful than combustible tobacco, while not subjecting incumbent cigarettes to any authorization process whatsoever. To add to the absurdity, in December, the FDA not only authorized a brand new menthol cigarette brand, but also allowed the manufacturer to make beneficial health claims despite it containing the same 7,000 toxic chemicals as other cigarettes. There is not a scintilla of doubt that the menthol vaping products which have just been denied authorization are orders of magnitude less harmful, yet the safer product is banned and the one that can kill is not.

In 2017, the FDA announced a plan which envisioned “a world where cigarettes would no longer create or sustain addiction, and where adults who still need or want nicotine could get it from alternative and less harmful sources.” Yet five years on, with the Biden government proposing banning conventional menthol cigarettes and its primary regulatory agency now prohibiting the obvious escape route of non-combustible menthol alternatives.

This is not consistent, or even competent, regulation. It is haphazard policy-led continual shifting of the playing field to get to an ideological pre-conceived result based on voodoo assumptions and fantasy about real world consequences.

It is indicative of something going badly wrong with the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products (CTP). The current Reagan-Udall Foundation inquiry to review how the agency operates has been taking testimony from stakeholders. The testimony has revealed systematic failures and has attracted damning comments highlighting deep dissatisfaction on how vaping product applications are handled from FDA staff whistle-blowers, citing corrupt practices, political interference and intimidation of those who attempt to conduct application reviews in a scientific manner.

An outsider looking in would surely wonder why an agency which claims to be scientific and exists to act in the best public health interests of the American people is so determined to protect the deadly cigarette trade from competition from products which are saving millions of lives around the world.

The FDA appears to be on a mission to crash its scientific credibility into the side of a mountain. It is shameful that in doing so it is sacrificing many thousands of lives which could be saved by safer nicotine products which the agency is arbitrarily denying to Americans who smoke. 

Martin Cullip is International Fellow at The Taxpayers Protection Alliance's Consumer Center and is based in South London, UK.

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2022/10/29/the_fdas_menthol_vape_ban_shows_it_is_not_a_science-based_agency_861877.html

Record-High 56% in U.S. Perceive Local Crime Has Increased

 Americans are more likely now than at any time over the past five decades to say there is more crime in their local area than there was a year ago. The 56% of U.S. adults who report an increase in crime where they live marks a five-percentage-point uptick since last year and is the highest by two points in Gallup's trend dating back to 1972.

Public perceptions of an increase in crime at the national level have also edged up since last year, as 78% say there is now more crime in the U.S. This is tied with the 2020 measure. The record high was 89% in 1992, when crime rates soared in the U.S.

Americans have consistently been more likely to say crime is worsening in the U.S. than in their local area since Gallup began simultaneously tracking Americans' impressions of both crime levels. The latest findings, from an Oct. 3-20 poll, are well above the 44% average for local crime and 67% average for national crime since 1989.

This year's record-high perception of a rise in local crime builds upon last year's sharp increase on the measure. In addition to the 56% who say there is more local crime this year, 28% think there is less and 14% think the level has stayed the same.

On the national front, beyond the 78% of Americans who currently think there is more crime in the U.S., 13% say there is less and 7% think there is about the same amount.

The low points for both trends were recorded in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. resulted in a rally effect among Americans and the large loss of life at the hands of terrorists overshadowed perceptions of local and national crime.

In Great Numbers, Republicans Think Crime Is Up Locally, Nationally

As is the case with many perceptions of national conditions, partisanship plays a significant role in shaping Americans' assessments of crime. Since 2000, supporters of the president's party have typically been less likely than those who identify with the opposition party to say that crime has increased. Before that, during both George H.W. Bush's and Bill Clinton's presidencies, partisans held similar perceptions of the crime problem.

Last October, with Joe Biden in the White House and after the FBI released its 2020 crime statistics showing a sharp increase in murders in the U.S., the percentage of Republicans who said there was more local crime increased from 38% to 67%. Independents' perception that local crime was worse also edged up, while Democrats' view was essentially unchanged.

Currently, 73% of Republicans say crime in their area has risen, while 51% of independents and 42% of Democrats say the same.

Perceptions of national crime trends are also influenced by the match between a person's own party identification and the party of the president. After rising slightly last year, Republicans' negative assessment of crime in the nation rose further so that they now nearly unanimously think crime is up nationally. The 95% of Republicans who think there is more national crime is also the highest ever for any party group, by two points.

A majority of Democrats think crime in the U.S. has risen since last year. That outlook is similar to their view in 2021 but slightly better than in the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency, when as many as 75% thought U.S. crime was up. For their part, 74% of independents think there is more crime nationally, similar to the past two years (Trump's last year and Biden's first).

Concerns About Being Victim of Six Crimes Rise to Trend Highs

Gallup has tracked the frequency of personal worry about 10 specific types of violent and property crimes since 2000. Terrorism was added in 2001, and two cybercrimes -- being the victim of identity theft and computer hacking -- were added in 2009 and 2017, respectively.

While none of these crimes engenders more than 41% frequent worry, two register majority-level frequent or occasional worry -- computer hacking (75%) and identity theft (73%). At the other end of the spectrum, Americans worry least about being assaulted or killed by a coworker on the job (9%) or being the victim of terrorism (27%).

Frequent or occasional worry about six of the 13 crimes has risen significantly since last year to trend highs. These include having one's child physically harmed at school, being sexually assaulted, getting mugged, getting murdered, being attacked while driving a car, and having one's home burglarized while they are at home.

Worry about children's safety at school has increased the most, by 13 points -- likely a result of recent high-profile school shootings, especially the Uvalde, Texas, incident in May.

For those crimes eliciting heightened worry this year, the increases are generally seen across most subgroups. Notably, however, city residents' concern about being mugged, murdered or sexually assaulted or having their car stolen has risen more than their suburban and rural counterparts'.

Bottom Line

There is no shortage of issues weighing on voters' minds during this year's midterm elections. As the U.S. continues to suffer from high inflation, the economy is playing a central role in the campaign. Yet, crime is also front and center in many campaigns around the country as candidates debate high crime rates, gun policy, bail reform and policing. Although crime is not one of the top issues Americans cite as the most important problem in the U.S., their belief that crime in their local area has risen in the past year has hit a new high in Gallup's trend.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/404048/record-high-perceive-local-crime-increased.aspx