Fire truck boom highlights divide in US manufacturing

 Anyone looking around Oshkosh's cavernous fire truck factory in Appleton, Wisconsin, for evidence of the longest U.S. manufacturing slump in two decades could be forgiven for coming away scratching their heads.

The delivery backlog for the company’s most sought-after fire-fighting rigs now stretches into 2026, part of a record $16 billion backlog for all types of the company’s trucks, which range from waste haulers and cement mixers to tow trucks and airport rescue vehicles. Oshkosh’s total revenues in 2022 equaled about half that amount.

"There might be a downturn coming, but we don’t see it," John Pfeifer, the company’s chief executive officer, told Reuters in an interview.

Oshkosh illustrates a sharp divide in the factory sector.

On one side are companies buoyed by a historic shift in U.S. attitudes about how to grow and protect domestic industries, particularly those deemed essential to national security. The Biden administration has championed legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, funneling billions of dollars into new investments in green technology, infrastructure, and semiconductors.

A loosening of purse strings by towns and cities as they emerge from pandemic-induced austerity also is driving demand for emergency and other equipment.

In the four quarters since the CHIPS Act became law, business investment in structures has on average added 0.43 percentage point to U.S. gross domestic product growth, its strongest contribution to economic growth in more than a decade, according to Commerce Department data. All that work needs machines to get the job done, fueling orders for heavy equipment makers.

MIXED BAG

But at the same time there’s a swath of U.S. manufacturing stuck in the doldrums, which is why the economic numbers tell a mixed story.

The Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched monthly gauge of U.S. factory activity, for instance, just notched its 14th consecutive month of contraction. That’s the longest stretch of sour reports since the early 2000s and the kind of number that economists normally associate with recession, not a manufacturing resurgence.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fire-truck-boom-highlights-divide-110515913.html

Gold set for biggest weekly fall in six as rate cut optimism dulls

 Gold firmed on Friday but was poised to record its biggest weekly decline in six, as comments from Federal Reserve policymakers through the week lowered expectations of an early rate cut.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,027.49 per ounce by 02:02 p.m. ET (1902 GMT), but was down 1% so far in the week.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2029.3.

The dollar index dipped 0.2% but was up 1% for the week. A stronger dollar makes greenback-priced gold more expensive for foreign currency holders. [USD/]

Over the week, the markets have been speculating about the Federal Reserve's timing for rate cuts that has reflected in gold prices, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the Fed needs more inflation data in hand before any rate cut judgment could be made. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Thursday said the baseline for cuts to start was in the third quarter.

Traders now expect about a 47% chance of a rate cut in March, down from 71% last week, according to CME's Fed Watch Tool.

"Until the first cut is delivered, the market may at times run ahead of itself, in the process building up rate cut expectations to levels that leave prices vulnerable to a correction," said Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

On the physical side, gold buying in India was lacklustre this week as a correction in local prices failed to attract consumers. [GO/AS]

Spot silver fell 0.8% to $22.57 per ounce, but was down about 2.5% for the week so far.

Spot platinum lost 1.3% to $895.02, and palladium was up 0.2% at $940.22.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-set-weekly-drop-tempered-023536426.html

Most Young Voters Want Abortion Limits, Say Legal Rights Begin In Womb: Poll

 by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A majority of Gen Z and millennial voters say legal rights should begin in the womb and that abortion should only be an option under certain circumstances, according to a new poll.

The Students for Life Action/YouGov poll released on Jan. 16 found that 54 percent of voters ages 18 to 42 believe human rights should begin in the womb, compared with 32 percent who said they should begin after birth.

Additionally, 65 percent of voters said they supported at least some limits on abortion—the same percentage as last year. However, 75 percent supported restrictions at or before viability, up 10 percent from 2023.

By contrast, 25 percent of respondents expressed support for unlimited abortion through all nine months of pregnancy—including 9 percent who would allow the death of a baby born alive in a botched abortion.

“Changing hearts and minds on the human rights issue of abortion means being specific,” said Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life of America (SFLA) and the Demetree Institute for Pro-Life Advancement.

“In light of ballot initiatives, misinformation on protections in place for women’s lives, and radical abortion policies pushed by those who don’t care about what happens to mothers and their preborn children, we wanted to explore just what the Youth Vote—Gen Z and millennials—are thinking. Far from being lock-step for abortion, many are open to conversation and willing to consider pro-life policies.”

One key finding of the poll was that the vast majority of Gen Z and millennial voters want to see more legislative support for mothers, newborns, and families. Measures like paid family leave for new parents, child tax credits, childcare subsidies, support services and programs, and laws to keep the health care costs of pregnancy affordable all received overwhelming support, with just 5 percent of respondents rejecting all of the options presented.

“Reaching the key voting bloc that is the Youth Vote doesn’t mean running away from the issue of abortion. It means talking specifically about how to protect life in law and in service and about plans to help women survive their exposure to an abortion industry that profits from death,” Ms. Hawkins said.

“The Youth Vote, like most Americans, rejects the late-term abortion extremism seen in numerous state ballot initiatives, Biden administration regulation, and Pelosi-pushed policies.”

Abortion on the Ballot

With the 2024 election just months away, initiatives to legislate abortion at the ballot box have cropped up in states around the country.

In November, abortion proponents in several states will look to replicate the recent success of Ohio’s Issue 1, a citizen-led ballot initiative that cemented a right to abortion in the state’s constitution.

Pro-life advocates, however, have criticized such efforts as deceitful attempts to confuse voters. Measures like Issue 1, they say, are deliberately crafted with vague language to trick voters into allowing loopholes for late-term abortions.

With its latest survey, Students for Life sought to determine the impacts of abortion-related misinformation on young voters, finding that only 14 percent were aware that all 50 states currently allow abortion in circumstances where the mother’s life is at risk. One-third (35 percent) said they believed most states had such protections in place, and nearly half (49 percent) said they believed that was true of “only some or a few” states. Another 2 percent said they believed women’s lives were not legally protected at all.

Additionally, 64 percent of voters said they were more concerned than ever about women’s lives being at risk due to unplanned pregnancies, with 58 percent attributing their heightened concern to media reports.

Most voters (57 percent) also said they want required reporting of abortion data to track complications from abortion and other statistics. Currently, no such requirement exists at the national level.

Political Perspectives

Gen Z and Millennial voters are on track to make up a majority of the American electorate by 2028, according to the Brookings Institution. And the survey shows that most of them—55 percent—rank abortion among their top three political issues.

Moreover, 40 percent said they prefer candidates who support abortion limits, with 16 percent preferring those who fight “strongly in favor of abortion restriction.”

Yet in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, the largely pro-life Republican Party has openly struggled to connect with voters on abortion, unable to articulate a stance that most party members can support.

Some candidates, fearing political suicide, have opted to avoid the issue completely. But Ms. Hawkins contended that the survey’s results show it would benefit the GOP to adopt a clear position.

“On the human rights issue of our day—abortion—the fine print matters,” she said. “Those urging GOP politicians to ignore this vital issue are making a mistake and should take a look at these findings to develop concrete plans and policies.

“The humanity of the preborn matters to many people, and support for the practical policies that help young families builds good will with young voters,” she added. “A swing in the pro-life/pro-family Youth Vote voter participation rate can become a game changer in this election.”

The Students for Life Action/YouGov survey was conducted in early January and has a margin of error of 3.52 percentage points.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/most-young-voters-want-abortion-limits-say-legal-rights-begin-womb-poll

American Healthcare REIT Seeking $700 Million in NYSE IPO

 

• Property vehicle could kick off listing as soon as next week
• REIT has nearly 300 properties in Indiana, Ohio, elsewhere

American Healthcare REIT Inc. is seeking to raise about $700 million in an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the situation.

The Irvine, California-based senior housing and assisted living property owner could start gauging investor interest in the listing as soon as next week, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. The company is a non-traded REIT, which is required to make regular filings and only infrequently trades over the counter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-19/american-healthcare-reit-said-to-seek-700-million-in-nyse-ipo

Houthis Declare Safe Passage For All Russian, Chinese Ships In Red Sea

 In a remarkable development, and at a moment European retailers and factories are beginning to bear the brunt of the global shipping chaos and soaring Red Sea transit risk, the Houthis have declared safe passage for Russia and China.

A senior Houthi official, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, mentioned these US rivals by name in an interview with the Russian outlet Izvestia on Friday. "As for all other countries, including Russia and China, their shipping in the region is not threatened," he said, stipulating this will remain as long as they are not linked to Israel or its supporters.

"Moreover, we are ready to ensure the safe passage of their ships in the Red Sea, because free navigation plays a significant role for our country," he added, but then underscored that attacks on ships will continue if they are "in any way connected with Israel."

The spokesman went on to blame the Red Sea crisis on Israel's (and its backers) refusal to reverse course in Gaza, given its aerial and ground campaign as continued. "Ansar Allah [the group's formal name] does not pursue the goal of capturing or sinking this or that sea vessel," he claimed. "Our goal is to raise the economic costs for [Israel] in order to stop the carnage in Gaza."

Some of the vessels which have come under attack thus far actually have connection to dozens of countries, but ships with Russian or Chinese ownership, or deep ties, have yet to be attacked. 

Another Houthi official told Reuters separately that the group doesn't seek to expand its campaign, after a fragile peace took effect with Saudi Arabia and the EUA concerning the Yemeni civil war: 

Yemen’s Houthis have said they do not intend to expand their attacks on shipping in and around the Red Sea, beyond their stated aims of blockading Israel and retaliating against the US and Britain for airstrikes.

In an interview with Reuters, spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam, who is also the chief Houthi negotiator in peace talks over Yemen’s decade-old civil war, said the group had no plans to target its longstanding foes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

“We do not want the escalation to expand. This is not our demand. We imposed rules of engagement in which not a single drop of blood was shed or major material losses,” said Abdulsalam. “It represented pressure on Israel only, it did not represent pressure on any country in the world.”

The US-UK coalition patrolling the Red Sea has at this point launched four rounds of airstrikes against Houthi positions, but this appears to have only deepened Houthi resolve. 

As for Russia and China, they've been foremost among Washington's powerful rivals to criticize Israel's mass bombing of the Gaza Strip. They both have close ties with Iran, as well as with Assad's Syria, and China is busy inking multi-billion dollar infrastructure and energy deals with Iraq. Of course, these 'defiant' countries are under US sanctions as well.

Meanwhile, cue "Putin is behind Red Sea attacks" narrative...

In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured to the Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas that "Russia will continue to supply the Gaza Strip with essential goods, including medicines and medical equipment." But overall, Moscow has been relatively quiet when it comes to the Red Sea crisis, but has condemned the 'escalation' of US coalition ships launching missiles on Yemen. Moscow and Beijing remain fiercely critical of the soaring Palestinian civilian death toll, and tensions with Israel's government have persisted. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-declare-safe-passage-russian-chinese-ships-red-sea

Biden Won’t Be Removed For Corruption In Ukraine But New Allegations Can Still Have An Impact

 by Andrew Korybko,

The Republicans could make support for more Ukrainian aid conditional on a joint investigation into these claims and thus doom any deal and/or the Biden Administration or the Zelensky regime could leak evidence if the other doesn’t do their bidding given their blackmail of one another due to these joint crimes.

Former Ukrainian MP Andrey Derkach dropped a bunch of bombshells about Biden’s corrupt dealings in Ukraine in a recent interview with Italian-American journalist Simona Mangiante. The takeaways can be read here, but they basically boil down to bribes and money laundering, among other crimes. While they might boost the Republicans’ impeachment efforts in the House where the opposition has a slim majority, their lack of a two-thirds majority in the Senate means that he won’t be removed from office.

Even so, these new allegations can still have an important impact on events, one that might be much more significant than his superficial impeachment by the House. Proceedings at that level have become politicized as proven by the Democrats’ witch hunt against Trump, which isn’t to say that the Republicans are carrying out their own against Biden, but just to emphasize that impeachment by the House has no tangible significance. At most, it’ll strengthen both parties’ efforts to get out the vote in November.

Where the actual importance of these latest allegations lies is in the larger context of the Ukrainian Conflict, which began to wind down late last year following the failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive and the consequent dwindling of Western aid. The Republicans already made their agreement on any more such deals contingent on robust border security reforms, but they might now also include the additional condition of a comprehensive joint investigation with Ukraine into Derkach’s bombshells about Biden.

If the opposition makes such a proposal, then there’s no way that the Democrats would agree, thus capsizing the possibility of any compromise on this issue until next year after November’s elections, which could shake up the congressional dynamics and potentially lead to Biden’s ouster as well. Furthermore, Zelensky’s regime can’t be counted on to assist any theoretical joint investigation in good faith since leading figures are also implicated in this corruption per Derkach’s revelations.

That particular point adds a curious twist to this scandal since it suggests that they might also be able to blackmail the Biden Administration, which provides a new layer of understanding to why the incumbent and his team have been so gung-ho about perpetuating NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine. Zelensky knows that any outcome short of the maximalist victory that he fantasizes about would kill his political career so he has self-interested reasons in wanting to turn this into a so-called “forever war”.

The US’ objective national interests aren’t served by depleting even more of its stockpiles and therefore reducing its ability to flexibly respond to foreign crises as they arise, or rather might even be provoked by America or its partners, hence why it’s become popular to talk about freezing the conflict. Former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis’ Korean-like “land-for-peace” armistice proposal last year could be a starting point but only if the West agrees to Russia’s security guarantee requests in Ukraine.

They’ve been reluctant to do so, however, hence why no progress has been made on this. One reason behind the US’ recalcitrance might not just be that it’s concerned about “losing face” upon reaching a pragmatic series of mutual compromises with Russia, but that Zelensky is blackmailing the Biden Administration that he’ll spill the beans if they dare to pursue this policy. Given his prior “godlike” status in the Western media, any corroboration of Derkach’s claims might be widely believed by Westerners.

They know that Zelensky isn’t a so-called “Russian agent” and have convinced themselves that he’s a “democratic freedom fighter” so it would be very damning to the incumbent Democrats’ reputation if he engaged in a “limited hangout” by sharing some relevant information. He of course wouldn’t implicate himself or his most loyal allies, but he could take down a couple less politically reliable officials in that event (perhaps as part of a purge) while possibly dooming Biden’s re-election and flipping the Senate.

Republican control of the White House and Congress coupled with what many regard as the right-leaning Supreme Court could lead to the Democrats’ worst nightmare of their opponents reversing most of Biden’s policies. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s worst nightmare is that Biden bows to the popular sentiment among Americans to scale back their country’s participation in this proxy war and coerce him to resume peace talks with Russia, so each can therefore keep the other in check through this mutual blackmail.

The legitimacy of both the Biden Administration and Zelensky’s regime is therefore dependent on each of them staying silent about their corruption scheme, but one or the other could at least in theory reveal some details about this if they begin to distrust the other or want to get rid of them. For instance, the Biden Administration could leak some information about Zelensky’s corruption to pro-Democrat media to pressure him into resuming peace talks or to pave the way for a “government of national unity”.

That proposal was pushed by a member of the influential Atlantic Council think tank last month in an article for Politico and could credibly be interpreted as a signal that the Biden Administration is beginning to get fed up with Zelensky. As for the Ukrainian leader, it was already explained that he might be the first to leak certain details about this scheme if he feels that the Democrats’ support for this proxy war is faltering, which could be one of his “nuclear options” in that case alongside a major false flag.

Circling back to Derkach’s latest corruption allegations, their impact in terms of the Ukrainian Conflict is much more important than the possibility of them aiding the Republicans’ efforts to impeach Biden in the House since they can’t remove him due to a dearth of support in the Senate. The Republicans could make support for more Ukrainian aid conditional on a joint investigation into these claims and/or the Biden Administration or the Zelensky regime could leak evidence if the other doesn’t do their bidding.

Andrew Korybko is anAmerican Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China's One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-wont-be-removed-corruption-ukraine-new-allegations-can-still-have-impact

Obama DOJ Wants To Jail Peter Navarro For 6 Months For Same Thing Eric Holder Got Away With

 Former Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro - the only guy who openly stood up to Anthony Fauci's authoritarian lockdown 'science' - is facing six months in jail and a $200,000 fine if the Biden DOJ gets its way, after Navarro defied a subpoena from the House Jan. 6 select committee.

Navarro was arrested at a DC airport in June of 2022 on two misdemeanor contempt of Congress charges for doing exactly what Obama AG Eric Holder did (with zero consequences), and more recently, Hunter Biden - ignore a Congressional subpoena when he told the Jan. 6 committee to pound sand.

"The Defendant chose allegiance to former President Donald Trump over the rule of law," said Assistant U.S. Attorney Elizabeth Aloi in a 20-page sentencing memo submitted Thursday night, Politico reports.

He will be sentenced by a federal judge next week after being convicted in September of said charges, after Aloi said that he "thumbed his nose at Congressional authority" and would likely do so again if it meant serving the "political interests of his allies and patrons."

The prosecutor said Navarro summarily refused to aid the Jan. 6 committee’s investigation into the causes of the violent assault at the Capitol — including efforts by Trump to subvert the 2020 election and derail the transfer of power. Navarro worked with allies in Congress on a strategy to help slow Congress’ counting of electoral votes via a strategy that he and fellow Trump ally Steve Bannon dubbed “The Green Bay Sweep.”

The Jan. 6 committee subpoenaed Navarro to discuss those efforts, but he quickly told them that his testimony was barred by executive privilege, and he declined to participate in their probe. -Politico

Navarro was held in contempt in April 2022, after which the DOJ obtained a grand jury indictment for refusing to provide documents and testimony. According to prosecutors, Navarro knew that Trump had never actually asserted executive privilege to bar him from testifying, and that such an assertion would not preclude him from testifying about at least some of the subjects demanded by the committee.

"At no time did the Defendant provide the Committee with any evidence supporting his assertion that the former President had invoked executive privilege over the information the Committee’s subpoena sought from the Defendant, or otherwise challenge the Committee’s authority or composition," wrote Aloi. "The Court was left with only the Defendant’s fan fiction version of what the Defendant wished or hoped the former President might have wanted but left unsaid."

Eric Who?

Obama Attorney General Eric Holder famously also defied a congressional subpoena, and was held in contempt for concealing documents related to the "fast & furious" scandal, which was tied to the death of an estimated 150 Mexican civilians - while Navarro is refusing to answer House Democrats' questions surrounding the 2020 election and the January 6th riot.

Where's the 'equity' in that?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/obama-doj-wants-jail-peter-navarro-6-months-same-thing-eric-holder-got-away