The steady path toward World War III continues. U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine in the war with Russia has been one long failure, but that hasn’t stopped them from escalating the war with new weapons and tactics.
Russia has met the escalation with its own escalation every step of the way. At what point do rational leaders in the West (if there are any left) pause, consider that the war is lost in Ukraine, deescalate and seek a treaty to end the war?
There’s no sign of that yet. In fact, all of the signs point to further escalation, which is a sure path to nuclear war. What good has escalation accomplished?
The West supplied Ukraine with HIMARS precision-guided artillery, but that largely failed because the Russians quickly learned how to jam the GPS guidance systems, so the missiles went off course.
That doesn’t mean the Russians shoot down or jam every HIMARS rocket Ukraine launches. Some will always get through. But overall, their effectiveness has been limited compared with expectations.
The U.S. and NATO also supplied Ukraine with Abrams, Leopard and Challenger tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles that have been left burning on the battlefield. They also require intensive maintenance Ukraine can’t necessarily provide, and are often unsuited for the battlefield conditions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainian soldiers have actually expressed a preference for Russian-made equipment over NATO’s.
Not Wonder Weapons
Meanwhile, the Patriot anti-missiles systems cannot shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles and have been destroyed one-by-one at a cost of $1 billion each. F-16s are the next wonder weapon promised. But Russia fields the most sophisticated air defense system in the world. Many planes will be shot down by Russian S-400 anti-aircraft batteries and other systems.
These planes are also old, obsolete models from NATO inventories at the end of their service lives. And they can’t even be flown by Ukrainian pilots since they barely read English (the training manuals and maintenance manuals are all in English) and have not had enough time to train.
It takes about two years to become a competent F-16 fighter pilot; the Ukrainians have barely had six months to learn. F-16s are also unsuited for the often rugged airfield conditions in Ukraine (they require pristine runways so debris doesn’t get sucked into their engines on takeoff).
They can be operated from NATO bases but that opens another can of worms.
NATO’s Latest Harebrained Scheme
What’s the next harebrained scheme from NATO? Here’s the latest example. The U.S. and its allies have green-lighted missile attacks deep inside Russia using U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of up to 190 miles.
These attacks have hit civilian targets such as the Russian city of Belgorod and critical military targets such as the Russian nuclear missile radar warning arrays. Both types of attacks are prompting a severe Russian response, including the final destruction of the entire Ukrainian power grid.
The attack on Russia’s early warning system is particularly provocative. Ukraine used U.K.-supplied drones to strike this radar system used by Russia to detect incoming nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The U.S. and Russia already adhere to what’s called the “launch on warning” doctrine. This means that if you detect incoming nuclear missiles, you don’t wait for them to hit their targets.
Instead, you launch your counterattack as soon as you detect the missiles. When it comes to nuclear war, it’s use it or lose it.
That puts the world on a hair trigger. Hitting a radar facility that’s part of a nuclear defense creates a blind spot in that defense and makes the hair trigger even more sensitive and launch prone.
And while Ukraine may have technically launched the missiles into Russia, it could not have done so without precise targeting data provided by the U.S. and its NATO allies. How do you think the U.S. would react if Mexico attacked U.S. targets using targeting data provided by Russia? It would directly implicate Russia and hold it responsible.
Here’s another question: Why would Ukraine attack this radar system at all? Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear missiles so it has no reason to compromise Russia’s nuclear defenses. The radar has no impact on the ground war in Ukraine. It wasn’t an airfield or ammo depot or any other militarily relevant target.
This plan is just another example of dangerous escalation by the U.S. and NATO and moves the world one step closer to nuclear war. Ukraine is all too happy to comply.
“Don’t Worry!”
Proponents of escalation dismiss these concerns, saying we’ve already crossed multiple “red lines” and Russia hasn’t directly retaliated against us. Maybe against Ukraine, but not us. We can therefore go ahead and cross another red line, the Russians won’t do anything.
First off, that just provides more evidence that Vladimir Putin isn’t some bloodthirsty maniac who can’t be deterred. He obviously can be, and clearly recognizes the dangers of escalation. He doesn’t want war with the U.S. and NATO. Why would he?
Secondly, and more importantly, NATO’s arming and equipping of Ukraine was never a red line for Russia. Western observers simply assumed that providing HIMARS, ATACMSs and tanks would be red lines for Russia. But Russia never specifically said they were. They warned about the overall threat of escalation, but these weren’t specific red lines.
But direct attacks on Russian soil are a different matter. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin himself have issued specific warnings about NATO facilitation of attacks within Russia itself. That’s the difference. Here’s what Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, had to say:
Russia regards all long-range weapons used by Ukraine as already being directly controlled by servicemen from NATO countries. This is no military assistance, this is participation in a war against us. And such actions could well become a casus belli. Nobody today can rule out the conflict’s transition to its final stage.
It doesn’t take a genius to understand what he means by the conflict’s “final stage.” Now, Medvedev often issues provocative statements. But listen to the comments of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. It’s about as strongly worded as a diplomatic statement can get:
I would like to warn American leaders against miscalculations that could have fatal consequences. For unknown reasons, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive.
Except the reasons aren’t unknown. It’s because the West is led by incompetent and reckless people who don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t understand that they’re playing with fire.
How Nuclear War Starts
I began studying nuclear war fighting in 1969 and have continued my studies for decades, which includes all the leading thinkers about nuclear war. While the experts disagree in certain respects, they all agree on one thing:
The most likely path to nuclear war is escalation. No one wakes up and says, “Nice day for a nuclear war. Let’s start one.”
Instead, war will be the result of a process of one side raising the stakes, the other side responding in kind and escalating further and so on in successive rounds until one party is backed into a corner and has no choice but to use nuclear weapons in an existential response.
Ironically, in that situation, the party that is less threatened may actually start the nuclear war in order to get the first-strike advantage. The result is annihilation: not just World War III, but possibly the end of most human life on Earth. Those that survive would probably wish they hadn’t.
This is incomprehensible. Ukraine is trying to drag the U.S. directly into the war with U.S. boots on the ground. Events may not get that far.
We may be destroyed in a nuclear World War III if this reckless escalation continues. Will anyone stop it?
Troubling news for the electric vehicle market emerged from Europe on Tuesday. The first was the collapse of Porsche Taycan prices, and second, a battery plant owned by Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz halted development. All of this signifies sliding EV demand across the EU.
Let's begin with a new Bloomberg Intelligence report titled "Taycan's 33% Value Drop Makes Even Tesla Owners Cringe," highlighting that the high-end luxury EV market is experiencing "significant declines in value as demand decreases."
The report, citing Experian data, found Porsche Taycan values in the first quarter sank 33% compared to the same period one year ago. This was an even more significant drop than the Tesla Model Y's 28%.
Sliding EV demand has also forced European auto battery manufacturer ACC, co-owned by Stellantis, Mercedes, and TotalEnergies, "to pause development of a site in Germany's Kaiserslautern," according to Bloomberg, citing local media outlet Rheinpfalz newspaper.
"Europe's drivers aren't ready in large numbers to exchange their old car for a new electric one," ACC's General Secretary Mathieu Hubert told Rheinpfalz.
Hubert pointed out that before more investments are completed, "We need to be sure what battery cell technology the market requires."
Across the Atlantic, Tesla recently reported an 8.5% drop in year-over-year vehicle sales in the first quarter. Sales growth across the EV space has slowed, and Tesla is locked in a price war with manufacturers worldwide.
Following Tesla's earnings release in April, Deepwater Asset Management analyst Gene Munster wrote on X, "The excitement around EVs has cooled, which further dampens sales."
A combination of higher interest rates, lack of robust positive real wage growth, and consumer slowdown amid stagflationary threats is weighing on demand for vehicles, especially EVs.
German auto manufacturer BMW has admitted that it only changes its logo for Pride month in certain regions and not others, taking into account “cultural aspects.”
Well, lookie here. Biden is caught in another lie. This time on the border. Under pressure from Democrats, Biden takes executive action on the border.
Biden’s Border Election Gambit
After stating he could not shut the border without Congressional approval, President Biden issues an executive order limiting the number of illegal immigrants who can enter the country.
More than three years into his Presidency, Joe Biden has discovered the border mess. On Tuesday he announced executive actions that he claims will stem a tidal wave of migrants. This looks like a tactical political retreat masquerading as a battle cry.
Polls show that the border has moved to the top of voter concerns, and a significant majority believe Donald Trump would do a better job handling it. Perhaps because he did. Encounters along the U.S.-Mexico border have nearly tripled since 2019 and they’ve increased more than six-fold since 2018.
Even Democrats who run big cities say they’re overwhelmed by migrants. Yet the Administration until Tuesday ignored their pleas for help while picking a fight with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott over his efforts to protect the border.
Thus his executive order on Tuesday that would supposedly block migrants seeking asylum at the southern border when the average number of daily encounters between ports of entry hits 2,500 over a week. The border could reopen once the daily average declines to 1,500. Daily encounters this year have averaged about 6,000.
Mr. Biden’s executive actions might help reduce the flow somewhat if they are strictly enforced, and at least he’s admitting the problem. But the press release sounds better than the details. Migrants could still seek asylum at ports of entry using the CBP One mobile app, which would be excluded from the daily triggers.
During the 2020 campaign, Mr. Biden lambasted Mr. Trump’s Remain in Mexico policy, which required asylum seekers to wait south of the border. On his first day in office he rescinded the Trump policy and all but ended border enforcement.
His Administration has also eased its scrutiny in reviewing asylum claims. Over the last three years immigration judges have granted nearly 80% of claims, roughly double the share under Mr. Trump. Most migrants caught at the border are released into the U.S. Many never show up for their eventual hearing.
No doubt Mr. Biden will wave his new order as a shield during his debate with Mr. Trump this month. But the transparently political timing of his order invites voter skepticism.
Give Me the Power!
Reporter: “Have you done everything you can do with executive authority?”
Biden: “I’ve done all I can do. Just give me the power.”
Biden Proposes Ankle Bracelets and Commands Will Solve the Immigration Problem
The bill requires Biden has to shut down the border when the average hits 5,000 a day. But who’s doing the counting? And what does “shut down” mean? How? With what force?
As a complement to the Lawful Pathways rule and associated enforcement efforts, the Department of State and DHS have taken significant steps to expand safe and orderly pathways for migrants to enter the United States lawfully. Those steps include establishing Safe Mobility Offices in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala to facilitate access to lawful pathways; expanding country-specific and other available processes to seek parole on a case-by-case basis for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit; expanding access to visa programs for seasonal employment; establishing a mechanism for noncitizens to schedule a time and place to present at ports of entry in a safe, orderly, and lawful manner through the CBP One mobile application; and expanding refugee admissions from the Western Hemisphere from 5,000 in Fiscal Year 2021 to up to 50,000 in Fiscal Year 2024.
As a result, from May 12, 2023, to May 1, 2024, my Administration removed or returned more than 720,000 noncitizens who did not have a lawful basis to remain in the United States, the vast majority of whom crossed the southwest land border.
Despite these efforts, and after months of reduced encounter levels following the changes put in place after May 12, 2023, encounter levels increased toward the end of 2023, and December 2023 saw the highest level of encounters between ports of entry in history, as increasing numbers of people migrated through the Western Hemisphere. The challenges presented by this surge in migration, which would have been even worse had the Lawful Pathways rule and other measures not been in place, were compounded by the fact that the surge was focused increasingly on western areas of the border in California and Arizona that are geographically remote, challenging to address, and without sufficient pre-existing infrastructure or resources to respond to the surge.
[Mish: Amazing. Biden is actually bragging about how well he has controlled the border.]
While my Administration has vigorously enforced the law within the constraints imposed by the existing system, the statutory framework put in place by the Congress is outdated. For the vast majority of people in immigration proceedings, the current laws make it impossible to quickly grant protection to those who require it and to quickly remove those who do not establish a legal basis to remain in the United States. This reality is compounded by the fact that the Congress has chronically underfunded our border security and immigration system and has failed to provide the resources or reforms it needs to be able to deliver timely consequences to most individuals who cross unlawfully and cannot establish a legal basis to remain in the United States.
[Mish: Whose fault is it that the border is underfunded. Did Democrats ram through spending bills without Republican support? Would Republicans have welcomed more funds to secure the border?]
In early February 2024, a bipartisan group of Senators introduced legislation (bipartisan legislative proposal) containing the toughest and fairest reforms of our asylum laws in decades that would have provided new authorities to significantly streamline and speed up immigration enforcement proceedings for individuals encountered at the border, including those who are seeking protection. Critically, the bipartisan legislative proposal included nearly $20 billion in additional resources for DHS and other departments to implement those new authorities.
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service affirmative asylum backlog is now over 1 million cases and growing, with over 300,000 applications filed prior to 2021 still pending. At the end of Fiscal Year 2023, there were over 2.4 million cases pending in the immigration courts. Pending cases more than doubled from the end of Fiscal Year 2016 to the end of Fiscal Year 2020 and doubled again between that time and the end of Fiscal Year 2023. Between Fiscal Year 2006 and the end of Fiscal Year 2023, in tandem with historic increases in filings to initiate immigration court proceedings, the immigration courts’ pending caseload increased from approximately 170,000 to approximately 2.46 million.
[Mish: Once again, whose fault is this? Did Democrats ram through spending bills without Republican support? It was not until this year that Biden proposed a deal. And the proposed deal was a Trojan Horse. Biden did not want to restrict immigrants. He wanted open borders until perhaps now.]
The New Executive Order Details
NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a)) and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that, absent the measures set forth in this proclamation, the entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of this proclamation under circumstances described in section 2 of this proclamation would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions. I therefore hereby proclaim the following:
Section 1. Suspension and Limitation on Entry. The entry of any noncitizen into the United States across the southern border is hereby suspended and limited, subject to section 3 of this proclamation. This suspension and limitation on entry shall be effective at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 5, 2024. The suspension and limitation directed in this proclamation shall be discontinued pursuant to subsection 2(a) of this proclamation, subject to subsection 2(b) of this proclamation.
Sec. 2. Applicability of Suspension and Limitation on Entry. (a) The Secretary of Homeland Security shall monitor the number of daily encounters and, subject to subsection (b) of this section, the suspension and limitation on entry pursuant to section 1 of this proclamation shall be discontinued at 12:01 a.m. eastern time on the date that is 14 calendar days after the Secretary makes a factual determination that there has been a 7-consecutive-calendar-day average of less than 1,500 encounters, not including encounters described in subsection 4(a)(iii) of this proclamation. (b) Notwithstanding a factual determination made under subsection (a) of this section, the suspension and limitation on entry pursuant to section 1 of this proclamation shall apply at 12:01 a.m. eastern time on the calendar day immediately after the Secretary has made a factual determination that there has been a 7-consecutive-calendar-day average of 2,500 encounters or more, not including encounters described in subsection 4(a)(iii) of this proclamation, until such suspension and limitation on entry is discontinued pursuant to subsection (a) of this section. (c) For purposes of subsection (a) and subsection (b) of this section, unaccompanied children (as defined in section 279(g)(2) of title 6, United States Code) from non-contiguous countries shall not be included in calculating the number of encounters.
Sec. 3. Scope and Implementation of Suspension and Limitation on Entry. …..
Sec. 4. Definitions. (a) The term “encounter” refers to a noncitizen who: (i) is physically apprehended by CBP immigration officers within 100 miles of the United States southwest land border during the 14-day period immediately after entry between ports of entry; (ii) is physically apprehended by DHS personnel at the southern coastal borders during the 14-day period immediately after entry between ports of entry; or (iii) is determined to be inadmissible at a southwest land border port of entry. …
Sec. 5. Severability. It is the policy of the United States to enforce this proclamation to the maximum extent possible to advance the interests of the United States. Accordingly, if any provision of this proclamation, or the application of any provision to any person or circumstance, is held to be invalid, the remainder of this proclamation and the application of its provisions to any other persons or circumstances shall not be affected thereby.
Sec. 6. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or (ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals. (b) This proclamation shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations. (c) This proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this third day of June, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-eighth.
The agreement is expected to give the executive branch a new legal authority to effectively suspend asylum in between official ports of entry when migrant crossings surpass certain thresholds.
The power, which Mr. Biden referred to as an authority to “shut down the border” on Friday, would be mandated after average daily migrant crossings hit 5,000 over seven days, or 8,500 in a single day.
It could also be activated on a discretionary basis after average daily crossings surpass 4,000 in a week.
There would also be a limit on the number of days each year the president could invoke the authority.
Mish Synopsis
Biden insisted he needed Congressional authority to restrict immigration. Now he says he doesn’t.
Biden is bragging about how well he controlled the border.
Biden blames Republicans for lack of funding despite the fact that he passed spending bills without Republican support.
It’s interesting that the Trojan Horse deal Biden said needed Congressional approval would only have taken affect at a daily average count of 4,000. Now it’s 2,500. Biden said the deal was the toughest ever. Now, magically it’s tougher.
The Trojan Horse deal also placed restrictions on how many times Biden could invoke authority to suspend immigration. His executive order has no such restrictions.
Conclusion
Biden is a liar on multiple fronts: About funding, about the success he touts, about needing Congressional approval, and about how tough the January proposed deal was.
Biden is acting now only because the situation is so out of hand that even Democrat governors are complaining.
One of Every Five New York City Hotels is Now a Migrant Shelter
New York City hotel prices have never been higher. Illegal immigration is part of the reason why. Mayoral graft is another.
Millions of immigrants keep pouring in. New residential construction has stalled and multi-family construction is in decline. Completions are rising, but is that enough housing?
Please read the list of demands. The list is outrageous.
Who the hell do these people think they are, illegally breaking into the US and making demands?
I have seriously had enough of this. Immediately deport any illegal immigrants further breaking laws, making demands, or protesting.
However, it’s important to note that we just cannot round up 8-10 million illegal immigrants and deport them all as some want to do. The US economy would collapse. I intend to do a follow-up post on that idea.
We need a sensible immigration policy. Right now, all we have are disingenuous extremes coupled with lies.
Almost all the gains were in publicly funded home health care
Construction, manufacturing, retail lag behind 2020 levels
New York Mayor Eric Adams likes to boast that since he took office in January 2022, the city has regained all of the 300,000 jobs it lost during the pandemic. Local officials note that the city and its suburbs added more total jobs over the past year than any other metro area in the US.
But those gains are placing significant strain on city and state finances.
