iPhone Maker Plummets; Most Impacted By Tariffs Among Mag7s

 Apple shares are plunging almost 10% in premarket trading, as the iPhone maker is viewed as especially exposed to the Trump administration’s tariff announcements.

As Bloomberg economists write in an overnight report (available to pro subs), "the US reciprocal 34% tariff on China and other nations where Apple has manufacturing will likely amplify operating-margin deterioration, given we don’t expect the company to hike prices to offset the effects." They add that revenue growth "could remain under pressure if Apple does raise product prices, in addition to uneasy consumer sentiment, which might delay upgrades."

Below we excerpt from several other Wall Street research reports, all of which reach the same conclusion:

Rosenblatt Securities (buy, PT $263)

• “Our quick math on Trump’s tariff Liberation Day suggests that this could blow up Apple,” and “that suggests something is likely to give,” like Apple getting an exemption or Trump reaching a deal with China and/or Vietnam
• “It’s hard for us to imagine Trump blowing up an American icon,” but “this looks pretty tough”

Citi (buy, PT $275)

• “If Apple cannot get exempted this time and assuming Apple gets hit by the accumulative 54% China tariffs and does not pass it through, we estimate about 9% negative impact to the company’s total gross margin”

Jefferies (underperform, PT $202.33)

• “The simple thought is likely that Apple’s products will be subject to this tariff, and thus demand will get hit and thus the supply chain will suffer,” although “our base case remains AAPL will be exempted from China tariffs”

Wedbush

• The firm sees the tariffs as “the start of negotiations,” and the selloff could represent “a major buying opportunity to own the best tech winners on sale for a policy that will be temporary and not permanent,” especially China-exposed names like Apple
• However, “numbers are now going to have come down across the tech world as just the sheer uncertainty from this tariff announcement heard around the world will cause some IT budgets to freeze”

While Apple is crashing by almsot double digits, the rest of the tech giants are also broadly lower, including: Microsoft -2.6%, Nvidia -5.6%, Amazon -6.1%, Alphabet -3%, Meta Platforms -4.6%, and Tesla -5.9%, Skyworks -3.8%, Broadcom -6.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/could-blow-apple-iphone-maker-plummets-most-cby-tariffs-among-mag7s

'DOGE Impact': Federal Govt Layoffs Dominate Biggest March Job Losses In 36 Years

 Over the last two months, DOGE actions have been attributed to 280,253 layoff plans of federal workers and contractors impacting 27 agencies, according to Challenger tracking. 

Another 4,429 job cuts have come from the downstream effect of cutting federal aid or ending contracts, impacting mostly Non-Profits and Health organizations.

The Government led all sectors in job cuts in March with 216,215, all of which occurred in the federal government. 

So far this year, the Government has cut 279,445, an increase of 672% from the 36,195 cuts announced in the first quarter of 2024.

March’s total is the third-highest monthly total ever recorded.

The highest monthly total occurred in April 2020 when 671,129 cuts were recorded, followed by May 2020 with 397,016. It is the highest total for the month of March on record, since Challenger began reporting on job cut plans in 1989.

“DOGE Impact” leads job cut reasons this year.

“Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government. It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs,” Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Companies’ hiring plans fell in March from 34,580 in February to 13,198. So far this year, companies plan to hire 53,867 workers, a 16% decrease from the 64,163 new hires announced in the first quarter of 2024. It is the lowest Q1 hiring total since 2012 when 52,540 new hiring plans were announced.

Meanwhile, according to the government's official data, the labor market is awesome with only 219k Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time last week - a level that has been basically consistent for the last three years

Kentucky, Illinois, and Iowa saw the biggest rise in initial jobless claims last week while Texas and Massachusetts saw the biggest decline...

And despite the surge in layoffs across the Deep 'Tri-State', initial jobless claims have been falling...

But continuing jobless claims broke out of its recent range and above its Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans...

That is the highest since November 2021.

Continuing Claims across The Deep 'TriState' continue to rise...

So who are you going to believe - WARN notices, Challenger Grey, or the BLS?

Will tomorrow's payrolls print be the tie-breaker?

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/doge-impact-federal-govt-layoffs-dominate-biggest-march-job-losses-36-years

3 Goals That Trump Wants To Achieve Through His Global Trade War

 by Andrew Korybko via substack,

He hopes to strengthen the US’ supply chain sovereignty, renegotiate its ties with all countries with a view towards getting them to distance themselves from China, and shape the emerging world order.

Trump’s decision to tariff the entire world to varying extents as revenge for their tariffs against the US has shaken the global economy to its core. Instead of restoring free and fair trade like he claims to want, which would give American companies an advantage, he might inadvertently accelerate regionalization trends and the subsequent division of the world into a collection of trade blocs. Even in that scenario, however, he could still advance the three unstated goals that are responsible for this policy.

• The first is to strengthen the US’ supply chain sovereignty so as to eliminate the leverage that other countries have over it. This might not be pursued solely for the sake of it, but perhaps also as contingency planning, thus hinting at concerns about a major war. The two most likely adversaries are China and Iran, and a hot conflict with either would throw the global economy into turmoil. Trump might therefore want to prioritize reshoring in order for the US to preemptively minimize the consequences.

• The second goal builds upon the first and relates to the US prompting every country to renegotiate their bilateral ties, during which time the US could offer to reduce tariffs in exchange for certain concessions. These could take the form of distancing themselves from China to a degree and gradually replacing it with the US with their top trade partner. Other incentives could also be dangled such as technology-sharing and military deals. The purpose would be to weaken China by chipping away its foreign trade.

• And finally, the last goal is to shape the emerging world order, to which end the US had to speed up the end of the present one by shaking the global economy to its core like Trump just did. Obtaining supply chain sovereignty and replacing China as the top trade partner for as many countries as possible would give the US’ leverage over a sizeable portion of the world. While it’s premature to speculate the ways in which the US could exploit this, it’ll almost certainly be in the context of its systemic rivalry with China.

Even if Trump’s global trade war unintentionally turbocharges regionalization trends and the subsequent division of the world into a collection of trade blocs instead of serving as the unprecedented power play that he expects, the US could still take advantage of this to implement its “Fortress America” policy. This refers to the US restoring its unipolar hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, which would make it strategically autarkic if it receives preferential access to these countries’ resources and markets.

In that event, the US would survive and could even thrive even if it’s pushed out of the Eastern Hemisphere upon losing the major war that it might be planning or if the consequences thereof make that part of the world too dysfunctional for the US to manage, which could lead to the US returning to its 1920s-like isolationism. To be clear, the US is unlikely to voluntarily abandon the Eastern Hemisphere, but it would still make sense to plan for that possibility just in case circumstances compel it to do so.

All in all, Trump’s global trade war is an epochal event that’ll leave a lasting impact on International Relations regardless of its outcome, but it’s too early to say for sure exactly what’ll come from it. The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that Trump has a grand plan in mind even if he doesn’t ultimately achieve any of his goals, the three most likely of which were touched upon in this analysis. In any case, the old era of globalization is now over, but it remains to be seen what’ll replace it and when.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/here-are-three-goals-trump-wants-achieve-through-his-global-trade-war

ISM Services Slumps To 9-Month Lows; Employment Plunges

 Following the significant decline in US Manufacturing 'soft' survey data (while hard data keeps rising with manufacturing jobs jumping most in years according to ADP), expectations for this morning's Services Sector PMIs are mixed.

• S&P Global's US Services PMI jumped from 15 month lows at 51.0 to 54.4 in March

• ISM Services PMI tumbled from 53.5 to 50.8 - its lowest since June 2024

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood of ISM was not pretty as Employment plunged into contraction (46.2) and New Orders dropped significantly (while Prices Paid saw some respite)...

Source: Bloomberg

Baffle 'em with bullshit is back...

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, offered a silver lining after the Manufacturing survey's slump:

"March saw a welcome rebound in service sector business activity after a weak start to the year, with employment also returning to growth after a decline seen in February. 

However, the rate of expansion remains below that seen throughout the second half of last year. [ZH: but still stronger than the rest of the world.]

Combined with a weak manufacturing reading for March, the survey data point to GDP having risen at an annualized rate of just 1.5% in the first quarter, down sharply from the 2.4% rate seen at the end of last year. 

But, it's not all unicorns and rainbows:

"The focus turns to whether growth will also trend lower in the second quarter. 

In this respect, we note that some of the improvement in March reflected better weather, after adverse conditions dampened services activity in the first two months of the year at many companies. There’s a suggestion, therefore, that the expansion in March may exaggerate the true underlying growth momentum in the economy.

"This gloomier picture is supported by the PMI’s future activity index, which showed optimism edging lower again in March. 

Business sentiment is now the lowest since the end of 2022 barring only the heightened uncertainty seen ahead of last year’s Presidential election. 

"Companies report heightened concerns and uncertainty around the impact of political change, ranging from DOGE-related budget cutting to tariffs and the degree to which foreign demand may be affected by recent policy initiatives. 

Concerns have also risen in relation to costs, which rose in March at the fastest rate in nearly two years as firms across both services and manufacturing reported intensifying supplier-driven price hikes, fueled by tariffs."

While less dramatic than the signal from Manufacturing suirveys, there is still the stench of stagflation as prices are soaring and growth is flagging.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/ism-services-slumps-9-month-lows-employment-plunges

'Luigi Mangione' Copycat Kills Pharmacy Worker In California

 by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

A copycat of alleged insurance executive assassin Luigi Mangione apparently harbored so much hatred toward large pharmacies that he targeted a Walgreens in California and fatally shot a vulnerable employee, police said. 

The accused perpetrator, Narciso Gallardo Fernandez, shot and killed Erick Valasquez inside a Walgreens in Madera, California during Velasquez’s shift in what investigators describe as a random attack, Madera Police Chief Gino Chiaramonte said. 

A chilling video widely shared on social media captured Gallardo Fernandez entering the Walgreens, waving his hands before firing at the camera.

He then targeted Valasquez, a husband and father of two young children. 

“He has generalized anger towards pharmacies through previous issues,” Chiaramonte said, according to local news outlet KSEE. 

In an apparent "Luigi style" shooting at a Walgreens in Madera, CA, 30-year-old Narciso Gallardo Fernandez murdered a father of two in cold blood due to a grudge against large pharmacies.

This is a deranged coward who deserves society's deepest contempt and punishment. pic.twitter.com/VCvKvS90Ni

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 2, 2025

The unhinged man, who reportedly drove 80 miles to reach the Walgreens, also shot other store workers and customers as they fled. He was reloading his weapon when law enforcement approached him in the parking lot. 

“He not only point blank murdered the store employee Erick Velasquez, but the store manager and a female victim after the shooting fled out the front door and he turned and started shooting towards them,” Chiaramonte said. 

The police chief said the alleged gunman told officers that he knew it was over by the large presence of police, lights and sirens coming. 

Local resident Alexis Miller-Jones expressed shock at the harrowing incident, noting that she often visits the store with her 11-year-old child. 

“I’ve not seen anything to this magnitude in our town,” Miller-Jones told KSEE. “One time somebody busted in the doors and stole a bunch of cigarettes, but that was the biggest, this is a lot more scary.” 

Walgreens reacted to the killing in a press statement, stating:

“We are deeply saddened by last night’s tragic event, which resulted in the death of one of our team members. Our thoughts and prayers are with their loved ones during this difficult time.” 

The killing comes less than four months after UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot by activist Luigi Nicholas Mangione in a New York City street. 

CCTV footage captured Mangione approaching Thompson and firing a 3D-printed pistol fitted with a 3D-printed suppressor in an assassination-style attack. 

Mangione now faces several state and federal charges for the murder, with the Trump-led DOJ seeking the death penalty. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/luigi-mangione-copycat-kills-pharmacy-worker-california

RxSight cut to Underperform from Buy by B of A

 Target to $22 from $36

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RXST&p=d

Adams dropping out of Democratic primary, will seek re-election as independent

 Eric Adams announced Thursday that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for mayor — instead pushing all his chips in on a longshot run as an independent candidate.

Hizzoner dropped the bombshell news in a campaign video announcement — just one day after a federal judge killed his corruption case for good.

“More than 25,000 New Yorkers signed my Democratic primary petition, but the dismissal of the bogus case against me dragged on too long, making it impossible to mount a primary campaign while these false accusations were held over me,” Adams said in the six-minute spiel.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams announces he is dropping out of the Democratic Party primary to run as an independent candidate.

“But I’m not a quitter. I’m a New Yorker,” he continued. “And that is why today, although I am still a Democrat, I am announcing that I will forgo the Democratic primary for mayor and appeal directly to all New Yorkers as an independent candidate in the general election.”

The embattled mayor insisted the Big Apple would be better off without clashing rhetoric from progressive and conservative sides — arguing that he has always put New Yorkers “before politics and party.”  

“I firmly believe that this city is better served by truly independent leadership, not leaders pulled at by the extremists on the far left or the far right, but instead those rooted in the common middle, the place where the vast majority of New Yorkers are firmly planted,” Adams said.

Those close to Adams told The Post the mayor had been mulling an independent bid to retain his seat in City Hall for weeks as his historic criminal case dragged out.

The mayor, for his part, addressed the charges in his campaign update, acknowledging that the high-profile case may have shifted voters’ views.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams speaks during a press conference in the rotunda of City Hall in Manhattan on March 31, 2025.Stephen Yang
“I know that the accusations leveled against me may have shaken your confidence in me and that you may rightly have questions about my conduct,” he said.

“And let me be clear, although the charges against me were false, I trusted people I should not have and I regret that. But the issues I face are nothing compared to yours.”

“Ultimately, it will be up to you who runs this city for the next four years,” he added. “As someone who has always fought for you and who is accountable to only you, I hope I can earn your vote.”

Still, the major shift to the general election, which was first reported by Politico, will be a steep uphill battle to change voters’ minds after a first term marred by scandals and plummeting poll numbers.

Some believe the prolific campaigner can make a “Lazarus-like” political comeback, while others believe his goose is cooked.

Adams will submit petitions to the Board of Elections on May 27 — instead of Thursday, on which other Democrats, including former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, were planning.

The mayor, who needs roughly 3,750 more to qualify for the race, only has $3 million cash on hand as of last month after an abysmal first campaign filing period brought in just $36,000.

Meanwhile, his announcement came less than 24 hours after Manhattan federal Judge Dale Ho released his long-awaited decision on whether to accept the controversial dismissal of charges sought by President Trump’s Justice Department.

Ho dismissed the case with prejudice — meaning it can’t be brought again.

His opinion went further than DOJ officials’ request to dismiss without prejudice, which he wrote reeked of the Trump administration trying to hold future prosecution over Adams’ head.

https://nypost.com/2025/04/03/us-news/nyc-mayor-eric-adams-dropping-out-of-democratic-primary-will-seek-re-election-as-independent/