The solution-focused paradigm is perhaps the most powerful framework for improving our trading because it naturally builds upon what we already do well.
The framework is this:
Find exceptions to your problem patterns: occasions in which your problems do not occur or occur at a much smaller scale.
When your problems aren't occurring, that is when you're doing something right.
Study what you're doing when you aren't having your problem, consider that as a possible best practice, and look to expand upon it.
For instance, one of my problems might be to take profits too early in a market move. When I don't take profits early, it's because I have grounded myself in a longer timeframe perspective and have consciously identified a bigger picture target. My confidence in the bigger picture idea, often anchored by research, outweighs the fear of losing my profit.
The exception to my problem pattern reveals a strength.
We develop as traders, not by focusing on our problems and negative emotions/patterns, but by identifying what we do when we make money and consciously "do more of what works".
The Fed minutes overnight showed the FOMC largely united behind rates on hold in July as they “assessed that the effects of higher tariffs had become more apparent in the prices of some goods but that their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remained to be seen.” Indeed, the key point was that they “judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs.”
Does anybody anywhere know how the current confluence of inflationary and deflationary forces will play out? In the UK, for example, where the BoE are already cutting rates, headline inflation is 3.8% y-o-y, nearly double target. There are real signs of economic weakness, but also real inflation in pocket and lingering on in services.
One would hope the top central bankers about to assemble at Jackson Hole are laser-focused on this. The Financial Times editorial today argues their collective focus should be on staying independent, getting better economic data, and understanding how government spending drives inflation better. There are problems with each – and more to boot.
Bloomberg says Jackson Hole will rally around under-fire Fed Chair Powell, which seems logical. Yet Powell is still likely to see his replacement named within weeks, it appears; moreover, David Zervos -- one of the potential candidates to succeed him -- just said it’s inaccurate to describe the Fed as independent, and claimed Powell is aligned with the political left. And will Jackson Hole also rally round Fed Governor Cook, who just had a criminal referral letter for mortgage fraud sent to the DOJ by the head of the FHFA? Trump has called on her to resign: she says she won’t be bullied. We have of course seen similar Fed governor turnover in recent years.
While each central bank is different in terms of its constitutional set-up, how many of them are truly safe in their (very recent in historical terms) independence when push comes to shove? Who appoints whom? That’s a one-way street. As tellingly, what can central banks do to ensure their independence if it’s threatened? ”Raise rates?”(!) Yes, some central banks have done so in the past to hurt governments they didn’t like: no, they won’t do that now. But it might delay rate cuts, perhaps. Or might they not buy their own government’s bonds in a market panic ensuing from fears over their loss of independence? There’s a discussion point with strong views either side, depending on which country we are talking about.
In short, on one level we are talking personalities here; on another we are talking underlying political-economy ideologies; and on another we are talking realpolitik and power structures.
Meanwhile, what’s true for central banking is even more starkly evident in the world they are now operating in.
Stunning Europe, but not a surprise to those who think in the terms described above, Russia now says it must be included in any Ukraine security guarantees - along with China. Russia also says no talks with Zelenskyy are on the horizon.
The unwillingness to talk to Ukraine is no surprise for Europe; but the Russian insistence that it gets to determine what Ukraine’s security guarantees look like -- and that it wants China involved, perhaps even meaning the PLA operating on the ground(?) -- is a geopolitical and diplomatic shock of the highest order for Brussels.
(And that comes on top of reports that European Commission President von der Leyen was reportedly asked to leave the room at times during Monday’s White House discussions on Ukraine because she wasn’t “a leader” nor “an elected head of state.”)
As Politico puts it bluntly, ‘Russia wants… Russia to have veto over Western security guarantees for Ukraine’ while ‘Europe has no real solutions for security guarantees on Ukraine’. The stakes here are sky high and so are the market’s fat tail risks.
Is Putin risking the massive increase in US and EU primary and secondary sanctions that could disrupt global trade and markets? Or will the US accept his terms, seeing Ukraine and Europe humbled even further? On one hand, that’s a ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ markets environment alongside the total defenestration of European strategic autonomy, with real long-run implications for its economy. On the other, it’s a likely rapid surge in energy prices and a massive supply chain shock as long-threatened global bifurcation accelerates rapidly.
On which note, Indian state firms reportedly secured several shipments of Russian crude recently, ignoring US warnings of higher tariffs, while Russia says it plans to start sending LNG to India, an area the US had been targeting. Moscow also called for “greater Eurasian partnership” between itself, China (which is rejecting Nvidia H20 after recent “insulting” comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and which may launch CNY stablecoins ahead), and India. That all raises the stakes from the current stand-off over Ukraine even higher. And that’s as a serious US Navy flotilla heads for oil-rich Venezuela, run by “narco-terrorist” President Maduro, who has a $50m US reward on his head: hello, Monroe Doctrine.
(Moreover, purely for the ECB to consider, ‘US drug pricing shake-up threatens access to medicines in Europe’ (Politico). Does that sound inflationary or deflationary?)
So, are the Jackson Hole central bankers worried about their futures; a lack of accurate data; and their own poor understanding of how governments drive inflation as defence spending is about to return to Cold War levels also following these developments? They are supposed to be ‘forward looking’, right? What’s their base-case scenario then? Does their modelling capture these risks? Will they make that clear, or are we supposed to imply it from what they share? Of course, I’m being facetious.
The reality is central banks will just wait and see what happens to energy prices and supply chains, then react. That puts their much-vaunted ‘independence’ into perspective: it’s more of a reaction function outside of the kind of ‘Econ 101’ world we no longer live in. Regrettably, few in the private sector have that luxury, and many must position/hedge such risks in advance.
If we were to see change at the Fed that drives a wedge between it and other central banks -- with the PBOC already far from independent in the Western sense -- the last global neoliberal institutional pillar could crumble, as I warned in Thin Ice in 2016. If it goes, so could a lot else.
Already, what’s good for one central bank isn’t necessarily good for another. The RBNZ governor just told the Kiwi parliament (where the government has tweaked the Reserve Bank’s remit in the recent past: there is political plasticity even in the home of inflation-targeting) that higher commodity prices and lower rates are the ingredient for an economic recovery in H2. Not elsewhere though, surely? They mostly don’t want the higher commodity prices part.
There’s certainly a lot for the world’s top central bankers to consider over the next few days, and vastly more than the FT would have it - because we’re all in a hole alright.
Disappointing trial results for VX-993 led to a sell-off of Vertex's stock recently.
The company's financials remain strong, and sales were up 12% last quarter.
Vertex has been broadening its pipeline, which can lead to much more growth in the future
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) has been a top pharma stock in recent years. It has been generating strong revenue growth while also building out its portfolio of drugs, expanding its growth opportunities in the process. This is the type of stock that you might expect to see taking off this year.
But that isn't happening.
Instead, the share price of Vertex recently plunged. Excitement around the company has cooled drastically. What's wrong with Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and is it an investment worth buying on the dip, or could there be more trouble ahead for the healthcare stock?
Vertex tanks after underwhelming study
On Aug. 4, Vertex released its latest quarterly numbers as well as results from a study for VX-993, which is a treatment for acute pain. It was the latter that had the most impact on the stock, and it wasn't good news. Vertex said that the treatment did not meet the primary endpoint in its phase 2 trial, and that it will not move on to further trials related to acute pain.
The company has an approved pain medication, Journavx, which regulators approved earlier this year for moderate to severe acute pain. The non-opioid medication was a big win for the company, and investors were hoping VX-993 might be able to build on that success and potentially be a better option for patients. As is often the case with pharma stocks, bad news from a clinical trial can quickly send a stock into a tailspin. Before the recent news came out, Vertex's stock was trading at around $470. As of Tuesday, it had fallen to roughly $396.
How the business looks today
Despite the setback for Vertex, the business remains in solid shape. In its most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, the company's revenue rose by more than 12% year over year, to just under $3 billion. Vertex is on track to hit its guidance of around $12 billion in revenue for the full year, which would translate into an increase of 9% from the previous year.
The company is a leader in cystic fibrosis drugs, and they account for nearly all of its revenue. But Vertex's business is broadening, and there is much more growth on the horizon. Journavx has only recently launched, and it brought in $12 million over the last three months. Casgevy, a gene therapy treatment for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia, has brought in over $30 million. Both of these products could be blockbusters, generating revenue of more than $1 billion at their respective peaks.
Vertex has fantastic profit margins. Last quarter, the company's net income totaled $1 billion, which was 35% of its top line. With solid margins, the company can easily grow its profits in the long run, paving the way for a higher valuation.
Reasonably priced, lot of potential upside
According to analyst estimates, Vertex's stock is trading at 22 times its projected future earnings. That's modest given the average S&P 500 stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 24.
Vertex has the potential to be a tremendous growth stock to own in the long run. While the recent news around VX-993 may be disappointing, it shouldn't dissuade investors from investing in the business. Not every trial will turn out well, and not every drug will be a blockbuster. But with a growing portfolio of drugs and a highly profitable business, Vertex is one of the better healthcare stocks to buy and hold right now.
The U.S. State Department's continuous vetting applies to "all of the more than 55 million foreigners who currently hold valid U.S. visas," a department official said on Thursday, including those who have already been admitted to enter the country.
"The State Department revokes visas any time there are indications of a potential ineligibility, which includes things like any indicators of overstays, criminal activity, threats to public safety, engaging in any form of terrorist activity, or providing support to a terrorist organization," the official said.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday and had "a productive and wide-ranging conversation" on trade challenges and other issues, Carney's office said in a statement.
The phone call, which comes at a time when Canada and the United States are locked in a trade war, was the first known conversation between the two leaders since June 30.
Carney initiated the call, said a Canadian government source who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
The leaders - who also discussed the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza - agreed to reconvene shortly, the statement added, but did not give any details.
Carney's office said it could not comment when asked whether the two men intended to speak again, or actually meet.
In Washington, a Trump administration official said the two men had discussed trade.
Canada has been holding talks with the United States on a new economic and security relationship for months but the two sides are not close to a deal.
"The leaders discussed current trade challenges, opportunities, and shared priorities in a new economic and security relationship," the statement said.
In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% on all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. The White House cited what it said was Canada's failure to stop fentanyl smuggling and address U.S. concerns about trade barriers.
When "The Wizard of Oz at Sphere" opens off the Las Vegas Strip on Aug. 28, audiences will experience the 1939 film classic in a way its creators probably never thought possible.
Nearly 18,000 people will find themselves in the eye of the swirling tornado that rips Dorothy's Kansas farmhouse off its moorings and hurtles it onto Munchkinland. The film has been enhanced to fill a 160,000-square-foot wall of LED panels that spans three football fields, encircling the audience and reaching 22 stories high, as 750-horsepower fans kick up wind and debris to simulate the twister.
The $104 or more per seat spectacle is more than meets the eye. "The Wizard of Oz" marks one of the most significant partnerships between a studio and technology company to use artificial intelligence to forge a new media experience.
Reuters spoke with nine people, including principals directly involved in the project and senior entertainment industry experts, who told the story behind a project that some industry veterans see as a potential watershed moment in Hollywood's use of AI tools.
"It definitely represents a really meaningful milestone in AI-human creative collaboration," said Thao Nguyen, immersive arts and emerging technologies agent at CAA. "I think it will set a precedent on how we reimagine culturally significant media."
Bringing Dorothy and the Wicked Witch to the massive Sphere, a globe-shaped entertainment venue featuring advanced technology, took two years and brought together its creative team, Warner Bros Discovery executives, Google's DeepMind researchers, academics, visual effects artists -- more than 2,000 people, in all.
The development occurred during intense apprehension over AI's impact on jobs in Hollywood and the desire to preserve human creativity. Some visual effects companies initially contacted to work on the project declined because they were not permitted to work with AI at the time.
'YOU'RE TOAST!'
Getting here took the blessing of Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav, his studio chiefs and lawyers who established guidelines for using AI. "Wizard of Oz at Sphere" drew upon archival materials from the film -- including set blueprints, shot lists, publicity stills and film artifacts -- as well as some 60 research papers to help deliver the movie in resolution representing a ten-fold improvement over previous work.
"We had to reimagine the cinematography, we had to reimagine the editing, and we had to do all of this without changing the experience," said Oscar-winner Ben Grossmann, who oversaw the project's visual effects. "Because if you touch anything about this sacred piece of cinema, you're toast!"
Rather than exploiting AI to cut jobs, they sought to use it to breathe fresh life into a classic story and create new experiences with existing intellectual property.
"Hollywood embraces new technology, and everyone can't wait to be the second one to use it," said Buzz Hays, a veteran film producer who leads Google Cloud's entertainment industry solutions group. "What 'The Wizard of Oz' is doing for us is giving that first opportunity where people go, 'Oh my god, this is not at all what I thought AI was going to be.'"
The project began in 2023 with Sphere executives discussing which project would push the technological boundaries of the venue that had already hosted U2 and Darren Aronofsky's "Postcard from Earth."
"The Wizard of Oz" quickly topped the list as a familiar, beloved film well-suited for the Sphere's enormous canvas, said Carolyn Blackwood, head of Sphere Studios. It presented an opportunity to re-introduce the classic to a new generation in a way that would place them inside L. Frank Baum's world.
Symbolically, the team chose a classic film that was a technical marvel of its time. While not the first movie to use Technicolor, "The Wizard of Oz's" dramatic transition from sepia tones to hyper-saturated color marked a cinematic milestone.
Sphere Entertainment's CEO James Dolan and creative collaborator Jane Rosenthal, Tribeca Film Festival co-founder and noted film producer, envisioned a more ambitious project than a mere digital remastering of a classic. Rosenthal tapped Hays to bring in Google as a technical partner.
AI 'QUARANTINE ZONE'
Dolan approached Warner Bros Discovery CEO Zaslav, a friend and business partner from the early days of cable TV, to propose bringing "Oz" to the Sphere. "I had just been to the Sphere with a friend and was really blown away," said Zaslav, adding that Dolan and Rosenthal also won over his studio chiefs, "who loved the idea. It's an example of the great IP we own at Warner Bros."
Before turning over one of the world's most important entertainment properties, Warner Bros set strict ground rules. Google could train its generative AI models on each major actor to reproduce their performances, but the data would remain the studio's property. None of the "Oz" training data would be incorporated into Google's public AI models.
"One of the things critical to getting this project started was creating a safe place for experimentation," said Grossmann. "Warner Brothers and Google and the Sphere created an environment where they said, 'We don't necessarily know how it's going to end, but we're going to create a little quarantine zone here.'"
The visual effects team initially tried enlarging images using CGI, which would have created photorealistic animated versions of the characters. That approach was rejected because it would violate the integrity of the original performances.
"AI was effectively a last resort, because we couldn't really do it any other way," said Grossmann, whose Los Angeles studio, Magnopus, worked on such photo-realistic computer animated films as Disney’s “The Lion King.”
AI enhanced the resolution of tiny celluloid frames from 1939 to ultra-high-definition images. It restored details -- like freckles on Dorothy's face or burlap texture on Scarecrow's face -- obscured by Technicolor's process. AI also helped "outpaint" on-screen images to fill gaps created by camera cuts or framing, as when it took a close-up of the Tin Man chopping a door of the Witch's castle with an axe to free Dorothy and completed the image of the woodman.
It took months of repeated fine-tuning and Google's DeepMind braintrust to elevate consumer-grade AI tools to deliver crisp images with the Sphere's 16K "super" resolution.
Musicians re-recorded the entire film score on the original sound stage to take advantage of the venue's 167,000 speakers. The vocal performances of Judy Garland and other actors remain unaltered.
FLYING MONKEYS
Despite attention to authenticity, the project has attracted criticism from some cinephiles who object to altering the cherished film. Entertainment writer Joshua Rivera called it "an affront to art and nature."
"None of these people criticizing this have seen the film or understand what we are doing," said Rosenthal.
In a private midnight screening for Reuters, Grossmann offered a glimpse of what’s to come.
Some changes are subtle, as when Uncle Henry stands by the front door while neighbor Almira Gulch demands Toto. AI places the performer, who spends much of his time out of view, back into frame, stitching together a wider view to fill the Sphere's expansive viewing plane.
Other changes aim to realize the filmmakers' vision in ways that weren't technically feasible 86 years ago. As Dorothy and friends encounter the Wizard in the Emerald Throne Room, a 200-foot-high green head looms over the audience, eyes bulging and voice booming, creating a more imposing depiction than the original image of an actor in green makeup projected on smoke.
"Whenever we made a change, it was because we wanted the audience to experience what Dorothy was experiencing directly," said Grossmann. "We completed something filmmakers were intending to do but were limited by 1939's tools .
Coordinated physical effects add another dimension. Flying monkeys will swoop into the Sphere as 16-foot-long helium-filled simians steered by drone operators, one of many Four-D effects.
The result is an amalgam of cinema, live production and experiential VR. "I think that's going to change the way people think about entertainment and experience," Grossmann said.
Dutch insurer Aegon on Thursday doubled the planned value of its ongoing share buyback programme to 400 million euros ($466 million), which it aims to conclude by the end of 2025, and said it was studying the possibility of moving its head office into the United States.
The group, which also announced a nearly 20% increase in its interim dividend, is looking to slim down its capital at hand to 1 billion euros by the end of next year, from 2 billion euros currently, through shareholder returns and investments to drive growth.
Its shares rose around 7% in early trading. Analysts from J.P. Morgan highlighted the unexpected hike in the buyback and said a relocation could be positive for the insurer's valuation.
Aegon, which has a large exposure to the U.S. through its Transamerica division, is launching a review of the potential relocation of both its legal domicile and headquarters.
"More than 65% of the earnings of the company is coming from the U.S. and we believe there are benefits for us (in) moving our head office," CEO Lard Friese told Reuters. The potential move would also see Aegon's New York listing become its primary one instead of Amsterdam.
Following the divestment of its Dutch business to ASR Nederland in a $4.9 billion deal that was closed in 2023, Aegon has been restructuring its business and prioritising U.S. growth.
A relocation would take two to three years, as Aegon would have to adopt a new accounting framework before moving its legal domicile, it said.
Asked about President Donald Trump's trade policies, Friese said the possible relocation had nothing to do with the actions of the U.S. administration.
The insurer will announce its decision on the move during its Capital Markets Day on December 10.
Aegon's operating capital generation fell slightly to 576 million euros in the first half of 2025, narrowly beating analysts' consensus. The U.S. business generated 371 million euros of operating capital in the same period.
