KUDLOW: The economy is doing better than you think

 Everybody is going to focus on jobs and the economy tomorrow when the August employment report is published at 8:30 in the morning. The consensus number for non-farm payrolls is 75,000, but all I can say is, don't bet on it. Monthly job forecasts are one big crapshoot.

There's roughly 160 million people working in America. So, if you miss your forecast by only one-tenth of 1%, it's a 160,000 miss. So, on that basis, jobs could run as high as 235,000. Or jobs could fall by 85,000 based on the 75,000 consensus. Plus, we've seen big downward revisions in recent months, and it's quite possible there may be more of these on the way. We have a new man at the BLS, EJ Antoni, a great friend and a very smart fellow. But he's not going to be able to make any real improvements for quite some time.

Today, the August Automatic Data Processing (ADP) private sector jobs report came in light at 54,000, but there's no real correlation between that number and the BLS number. Earlier this week we had a JOLTS number that came in light at 7.18 million (JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). For the first time since April 2021, the level of job openings was slightly less than the number of unemployed, which is 7.2 million. So, it's a slight differential but probably, along with other labor market indicators, suggests a softening in the jobs picture.

It's not a major downturn. The unemployment rate is still a low 4.2%. Weekly unemployment claims are showing a solid and stable labor market. Probably the worst number out there is the ISM Manufacturing Index, which continues under 50%, as it has been for several years. ISM services, however, came in stronger than expected today at 52%. Another good number is the business investment, called non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, where orders are up over 10% at an annual rate and shipments over 6% for the past 3-months.

In some sense, Mr. Trump's economic and trade policies are aimed at producing new factories, and it looks like the newly expected buildout is well on its way. Especially with 100% depreciation write-offs. And here's an unbelievably spectacular number: non-financial corporate sector productivity over the past four quarters is up 3.4%. And for the past quarter alone productivity is up 5.7% at an annual rate. All this before Mr. Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill" hasn't really gone into effect.

And now it's being called the "Working Families Tax Cut Bill". And real wages are already rising. And today, CEA Chair Stephen Miran says there's no tariff inflation. So, whatever happens with tomorrow's job report, the economy is doing better than you think.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/larry-kudlow-economy-doing-better-than-you-think

Goldman to Buy $1B of T. Rowe Stock as Firms Team Up

 

• T. Rowe Price (TROW, Financial) shares surged 7.7% in premarket trading following a major investment by Goldman Sachs.

T. Rowe Price (TROW) has captured the market's attention with a remarkable 7.7% increase in premarket trading. This surge follows the announcement that Goldman Sachs plans to invest up to $1 billion in T. Rowe Price common stock. This strategic collaboration aims to significantly enhance retirement and wealth investment products, marking a notable milestone for both companies.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3094395/t-rowe-price-trow-shares-surge-on-1b-investment-by-goldman-sachs

FTC takes action against worker noncompete agreements

 The U.S. Federal Trade Commission barred the largest pet cremation business in the U.S. from enforcing its noncompete agreements with 1,800 workers on Thursday, saying they unfairly diminish workers’ leverage with their employer.

FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson said in a statement on Thursday that the action shows how the agency can use enforcement actions against targeted instances of unfair noncompete agreements, even without the rule passed by his predecessor, Lina Khan, that would ban such agreements nationwide. 

Thursday’s action "makes clear that the Trump-Vance Commission will act as a cop on the beat, enforcing the antitrust laws against unlawful noncompete agreements to protect American workers, rather than trying to legislate them away," Ferguson said. 

A judge in Texas struck down the noncompete ban last year after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sued the agency. Ferguson, a Republican, dissented from the agency’s Democratic majority rule when it was passed, saying it went beyond the FTC’s authority and relied on weak evidence regarding the benefits and drawbacks of a blanket ban.

On Thursday, the FTC said pet cremation company Gateway Services has agreed to cease enforcing its noncompete agreements, which bar employees at its 100 locations from working elsewhere in the industry for a year after leaving the company.

The agency also called for public comment on noncompete agreements, saying it may use the information to bring future cases. 

The effort illustrates one side of the Trump administration’s approach to U.S. workers, where Ferguson has said the FTC aims to crack down on deceptive practices by employers to deliver on President Donald Trump’s promise to address the economic concerns of the working class.

On the other hand, labor groups have criticized the administration and unions have sued it for stripping hundreds of thousands of federal workers’ collective bargaining rights and reversing some pro-worker policies put in place under former President Joe Biden.

Kelse Moen, who co-leads the labor task force that Ferguson launched in February, said in a statement that "today’s action will not be the last." 

The action is the first by the FTC under the Trump administration against the practice. The agency settled with a security company and glass container manufacturers during Biden’s term.

The agency’s three Republicans voted in favor of the settlement with Gateway Services, while Rebecca Slaughter, a Democratic commissioner who was reinstated by a court this week after being fired earlier this year by Trump, voted against it.

Slaughter said in a statement that the action does nothing to address Gateway’s consolidation of the cremation businesses under its private-equity owner, Imperial Capital, and said the FTC should defend the noncompete ban.

"One-off enforcement is no substitute for the FTC’s meaningful, marketwide noncompete rule that will protect workers across the country," she said.

The Trump administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday to again allow it to remove Slaughter while the case over her firing plays out.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/trump-ftc-takes-first-action-against-worker-noncompete-agreements-4225133

Honeywell announces $600M capital raise for Quantinuum

 Honeywell (HON) announced an approximately $600M equity capital raise for Quantinuum, developer of the world’s highest-performing quantum computer, at a pre-money equity valuation of $10B. Quanta Computer, NVentures (NVIDIA’s venture capital arm) and QED Investors have joined existing shareholders JPMorganChase, Mitsui, Amgen, Cambridge Quantum Holdings, Serendipity Capital and Honeywell – all of whom have reinvested in this round. The round also includes participation from new investors MESH and Korea Investment Partners.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/honeywell-announces-600m-capital-raise-for-quantinuum/ar-AA1LSVkV

US FAA to propose changes to speed certification of new commercial airplanes

The Federal Aviation Administration plans to propose changes to speed certification of new commercial airplanes, the Trump administration said in a notice on Thursday.

The FAA said it plans to propose by December changes "to modernize certain certification standards for transport category airplanes and propulsion systems." It said the effort will be deregulatory by reducing the number of "exemptions, special conditions, and equivalent level of safety findings required during the certification process."

The previous head of the FAA, Mike Whitaker, told Reuters in December the agency wanted to streamline aircraft certification and is working to use "better technology" to help streamline the process.

The FAA said it expects the proposal will "reduce certification costs and time to certify new and changed products for both industry and FAA while maintaining or increasing the level of safety." The FAA also plans to harmonize its regulations with international standards.

At one point, Boeing had hoped to get the 737 MAX 7 certified in 2022 but has faced a series of issues. Boeing in January withdrew its request for a safety exemption to address an engine de-icing issue.

Boeing said in July it now does not expect to get MAX 7 certified until next year and Southwest Airlines said they expect the plane to be approved in the first half of next year, which would put entry into service for Southwest at earliest late in 2026.

The MAX 7 must be certified before the FAA can certify the larger MAX 10. United Airlines told Reuters earlier it may not get the MAX 10 until 2027 or 2028 because of uncertainty about when the plane will be approved for use.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-faa-propose-changes-speed-191159364.html

Boeing Defense plans to replace striking workers with new hires

 Boeing Defense plans to hire new workers to replace striking members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers who assemble munitions, fighters and other military aircraft in the St. Louis area, the company said in a message to employees on Thursday.

"Today, we’re starting the process to hire permanent replacement workers for manufacturing roles," Boeing Defense Vice President Dan Gillian said in a message to employees on Thursday. "This will ensure we’re properly staffed to keep supporting our customers."

Boeing has used non-union employees to keep production going since the strike began on August 4, after the 3,200 members of IAM District 837 voted 67% to reject the company's latest four-year contract offer. Production has slowed on some programs, Gillian said during a press briefing on Wednesday.

Boeing is open to "minor adjustments" to the offer rejected by IAM members, not substantial ones, he said during the briefing.

Job openings are being posted Thursday, followed by a job fair on September 16, he said in Thursday's message, which was shared with Reuters.

"Once these new manufacturing employees are hired, they will undergo the same training and certifications that we require of all our teammates," he said.

"We're sorry to hear that," IAM District 837 president Tom Boelling told Reuters. "I'd rather have them come back to the table and work this out."

IAM International President Brian Bryant said in a public statement that "Boeing is doubling down on its mismanagement by saying it plans to hire replacement workers to build military aircraft and equipment, instead of negotiating with their dedicated, generational and skilled workforce."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/boeing-defense-plans-replace-striking-185331520.html

Mangione stalling on revealing if he’ll use psych defense at NYC murder trial: DA

 Luigi Mangione is stalling on revealing if he’ll use a psychiatric defense at his Manhattan murder trial — a legal gambit that could reduce his time in prison, state prosecutors claimed Thursday.

The accused killer maintains that showing his cards to the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office would “compromise” his defense in a separate federal case, where he faces the death penalty.

The tit-for-tat over how Mangione, 27, may fight charges of fatally shooting UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson comes as Judge Gregory Carro has yet to set a trial date in the headline-grabbing case.

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Luigi Mangione wants to keep his plans of possibly using a psych defense at his trial close to the vest.AP

The DA’s office argued that Mangione has added to the delay by blowing through an Aug. 25 deadline for revealing if he’ll use the psych defense strategy.

“Unnecessary delay thwarts the timely search for truth and erodes public confidence in the justice system,” wrote Assistant District Attorney Joel Seidemann in a letter sent to the judge.

Pushing back the trial “would deprive the People of their day in court at a time when the events are fresh in the witnesses’ memories,” Seidemann said.

But Mangione’s lawyer claimed in an August 25 letter that it would be “compromising his constitutional rights” in the federal case to reveal his legal strategy first in state court.

“We ask the court to recognize the truly unprecedented situation facing Mr. Mangione and his counsel given the multiple prosecutions for the same offense, including one that involves the death sentence,” attorney Karen Friedman Agnifilo wrote.

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Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s office has hit Mangione with charges carrying a maximum sentence of life in prison.Stephen Yang

Mangione’s state charges — murder in the first degree as an act of terrorism — currently carry a max of life in prison without the possibility of parole.

A psychiatric defense, if successful, could lead to the jailed Ivy League grad receiving a lesser sentence or being institutionalized.

Mangione could argue that he was suffering from an “extreme emotional disturbance” at the time of the killing.

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Prosecutor Joel Seidemann accused Mangione of delaying his trial date by refusing to say if he’ll use a psych defense.Steven Hirsch

If a New York state jury agreed, the alleged murderer’s charge would be reduced to first-degree manslaughter, which carries a max of 25 years in prison.

Mangione could also use what’s referred to as the “insanity defense” — which could lead to him being committed to a mental health facility — but such a move is considered less likely.

The accused killer’s lawyers have urged that he face trial on the federal charges first given that they carry the ultimate possible punishment of a death penalty.

Federal courts also have different rules for psych defenses and are considered a far more difficult venue for making such arguments, experts have told The Post.

Mangione has pleaded not guilty to Thompson’s Dec. 4, 2024, murder and is being held in Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center.

He’s due back in court on Sept. 16 in his state case, and on Dec. 5 in his federal case.

https://nypost.com/2025/09/04/us-news/luigi-mangione-stalling-on-revealing-if-hell-use-psych-defense-at-nyc-murder-trial-da/