Big Pharma leaders presenting earnings this week largely shrugged off the potential of renewed risk ahead for drug pricing, with President Donald Trump’s Most Favored Nation initiative already embedded into assumptions.
Even with Democrats regaining control of Congress during Tuesday’s mid-term elections, executives were steadfast. Novo’s Mike Maziar Doustdar, reporting from Copenhagen Wednesday morning, was the first to speak to U.S. policy points after the blue wave.
“There’s always been a strong bipartisan support from both sides of the aisle for what we do,” Doustdar said. “We improve health at scale—whether you’re Republican or Democrat, you welcome that for your constituents.” He pledged to work closely with either party on “making sure that we can be a meaningful partner” to the U.S.
Leerink Partners warned that the Democrats could renew a push to lower drug prices but would likely have bigger issues to tackle first as they take control in Washington.
“Democrats likely have ‘bigger fish to fry’ than drug pricing in the near-term, in our view. But we do expect investigations related to drug pricing,” the firm wrote.
These investigations could focus on the confidential negotiations the administration conducted around MFN offering pharmas a chance to avoid tariffs, Leerink suggested.
While 2027 may not bring much change, Leerink warned that Trump himself has also suggested that he may seek to renegotiate MFN in 2028. America will also return to the polls that year to select a new president.
“Since the Trump administration’s voluntary tariff-avoidance deals with drug companies expire in December 2028, we have been assuming that President Trump could demand “a better bargain” from drug companies going into the November 2028 elections,” Leerink wrote.
BMO Capital Markets warned that the markets could be volatile for the industry today. “While Novo’s commercial beat is strong, we could see BioPharma shares face headwinds at open on U.S. Democrat ‘blue wave’ in midterms,” the firm wrote early Wednesday morning.
A day earlier, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla similarly signaled that little would change even if Democrats took control of Congress.
“We are waiting to see what will happen today in the election,” Bourla said during his company’s earnings call on Tuesday. “But I think that in any case, it looks like we will have a split government, so I don’t think that many things can move legislation-wise.”
Bourla’s election outcome prediction was proven right. In a rebuke to Trump, Democrats retook both houses of Congress, flipping multiple key seats.
Bourla does not expect any changes this year for the MFN agreements, which Pfizer and other pharmas secured in order to avoid tariffs in 2025. But he admitted the policy woes of last year still weighed on him.
“It’s a very big contrast vis-a-vis what I was telling you a year ago. In 2025, I was really scared about the implications that either tariffs or MFN could have,” Bourla said.
But the CEO is confident that in working through those issues with the administration, there will not be any major policy surprises.
“Through the successful navigation of those issues, we brought the stability that is now projected to last and has brought, I think, this confidence back to the investor to invest in the in the industry in our sector,” Bourla said.
The art of the deal
While most Big Pharmas have secured an MFN deal with the Trump administration, Bayer, for one, has not done so yet.
“We expect to have a good resolution that’s good for America, good for Bayer,” CEO Bill Anderson said on a Tuesday morning call with media.
The negotiations are particularly key for Bayer as the company gets nearer to a launch for the stroke medicine asundexian, which was accepted for FDA priority review in October.
“Our mission … is health for all, it doesn’t say health for people with private insurance,” Anderson said. “So [we’ve] got to work on that. And we’re going to fight really hard with everything we have to make sure that this medicine is covered broadly.”
Stefan Oelrich, president of the Pharmaceuticals Division and member of Bayer’s board of management, confirmed during an investor call later that morning that Bayer is still potentially exposed to tariffs without an MFN deal.
“We’re one of the companies that has not signed a deal on this,” Oelrich said. “So right now, that would mean we would be exposed to potential tariff impact and potential GUARD and GLOBE impact. And this is something that we’re currently discussing still.”
GUARD and GLOBE are trial programs being developed by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to embed MFN drug pricing into the government healthcare programs.
Bayer has been working to boost its U.S. footprint, with a $2.2 billion investment in an Ohio manufacturing plant announced in October. Trump promised leniency to pharmas who onshored manufacturing efforts during his initial MFN push last year.
“The Ohio investment clearly is a sign of our strategy of renewed focus on the U.S. market really coming through,” Oelrich said. “That includes bringing manufacturing to where our biggest markets are in the world that we live in now.”
Oelrich promised an update on the MFN negotiations when Bayer reports first quarter earnings and offers guidance for the year ahead.
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