Don’t Be Fooled by Fake Polls

 There was no question who my wife and I were going to vote for in our local congressional race in Southwest Florida. I’ve known the Republican candidate, Casey Askar, and his family for many years.

He is a faith-filled Catholic father of seven who believes that human life deserves legal protection from conception until natural death, and that embryos created through artificial methods should be protected from purposeful destruction.

But after we voted early, I decided to check on what the polls were saying.

Not that I was worried that Casey would lose. Florida’s 22^nd congressional district was redrawn last year and now leans fairly heavily Republican. In fact, Trump would have won it by almost 11 points in 2024. So should Casey, I thought.

Yet I was surprised to find that, according to the polls, my pro-life candidate was in danger of losing to his abortion-minded opponent, Pia Dandiya.

The earliest polls either had Dandiya ahead 46-44 (Impact Research) or had the two candidates tied 50-50 (Tavern Research). The latest poll, carried out by something called RedBox Research, had Casey losing to Dandiya by one point, 45-46.

Because of these polls, the race was widely touted as a toss-up.

There is only one thing wrong. Each and every one of these “polls” was conducted by progressive Democrat super PACs. 

In other words, they were not polls at all, but ploys: clever political deceptions designed to energize Democratic voters in the district and dishearten their Republican counterparts.

Looking north to Florida’s 14^th congressional district, which includes Tampa Bay and environs, I found the same thing. Here, too, the redrawn map is now heavily Republican, and would have gone for Trump by 11 points in 2024.

Given the demographics, you would think the polls would show Republican Mike Beltran with a comfortable lead over Democrat incumbent Kathy Castor. You would be wrong. The latest poll actually shows the Republican losing to his Democrat opponent by exactly one point, 45-46.

Two polls, two different Republican-leaning districts, the same results.

What else do they have in common? It turns out both polls were also carried out by RedBox Research and funded by the same progressive super PAC. 

Progressive super PACs and polling groups are playing the same mind game in dozens of other congressional races, shoving Republican candidates way down in the polls.

This isn’t just speculation. Recently, three polling firms have been caught blatantly fabricating data. They claim they were merely conducting “social experiments”, but their invented “polls” always erred in the same direction, showing Democrats as heavy favorites. 

The progressive super PACs not only fund rigged polls; they and other players may be rigging the so-called prediction markets as well. These markets let anyone bet on the outcome of a particular race. 

The two big prediction markets—the ones you see cited endlessly on TV—are Polymarket and Kalshi. Like the polls, they always seem to favor Democrats, even in heavily Republican districts.

Right now, in my two Florida districts, FL-22 and FL-14, both markets favor the Democratic candidates by better than two-to-one odds. For example, Polymarket says that the Republican candidate my wife and I voted for, Casey Askar, has only a 28 percent chance of winning.

The trouble with Polymarket and Kalshi percentages is that they can be easily manipulated. All you have to do is place a large bet for your favored candidate, and it will move the market in his or her direction.

In a typical congressional race, if you want to move Polymarket odds 2 to 5 points in your favored candidate’s direction, bet $1,000. If you want to move it 10-15 or more points, bet $10,000.

For the campaigns and super PACs that throw around tens of millions of dollars, this is chump change.

Are progressive groups trying to game the system in this way? Of course they are.

Then consider the foreign money that is surely flowing into the prediction markets. Take the Senate race in Michigan, where Democrat Mohammed El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers.

Here the Polymarket and Kalshi odds are closely aligned and heavily in favor of El-Sayed over Rogers by as much as 71 to 29. Given his tepid support among African Americans and the reported defection of Jewish voters and Democrats in general, I simply don’t believe this.

So who could be betting for him outside of the Islamic enclave of Dearborn and Democratic Socialists? Given El-Sayed’s reported ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, I think the answer is obvious.

As Miranda Devine noted, “It costs about $40,000 to move Kalshi five points toward El-Sayed. You don’t think Qatar or China or one of the Angry Elf’s [El-Sayed’s] Super PACS isn’t working the prediction markets?”

I think that the Democratic Socialists and their Communist/Islamist allies overseas have been furiously gaming the prediction markets and fabricating polls throughout this election cycle.

The goal of this political psyop was to create the illusion that a blue tsunami is about to engulf America, sweeping away the current Republican majority in the Senate and the House and putting the Democrats in charge of Congress.

The reality, I suspect, will be much different: the blue tsunami will turn out to be a blue ripple. While the Republicans will probably lose their narrow, 4-vote majority in the House, they will hold the Senate.

The election-day poll is the only one that matters.

So go vote on Tuesday, and then grab a bag of popcorn. I think the returns will be fun to watch. 

It may be a long night for the Democrats.

Steven W. Mosher is the author of The Devil and Communist China (Tanbooks.com) and the President of the Population Research Institute.

https://chroniclesmagazine.org/web/dont-be-fooled-by-fake-polls/