A full Turkish cutoff of economic ties with Iran under Washington’s new pressure campaign would be painful for Turkey’s economy and could force Ankara to seek compensation from the United States, economist Timothy Ash wrote in an analysis for Türkiye Today.
Turkey is Iran’s third-largest trading partner after China and the UAE, with bilateral trade worth around $17 billion, Ash wrote. More than three million Iranians visit Turkey annually, providing foreign-currency revenues, while Iran supplies about 13% of Turkey’s natural gas.
Those links put Ankara in a difficult position as the Trump administration expands Operation Economic Outcast, aimed at pressuring countries and companies to stop doing business with Tehran.
Ash argued that Turkey could technically comply with a near-total US economic blockade, but doing so would add pressure to an economy already struggling with high inflation, large external financing needs and limited foreign-exchange reserves.
Replacing Iranian gas could prove particularly difficult. Greater reliance on Russia would create another problem for Washington, which has itself sought to limit Moscow’s energy revenues.
Ash said Ankara could therefore seek US financial support if Washington demanded a substantial reduction in Iranian trade, drawing a comparison with Turkish requests for compensation ahead of the 2003 Iraq war.
But he questioned whether Washington would ultimately push Turkey that far.
The United States has previously allowed considerable Turkish trade with both Iran and Russia, while Washington also has broader strategic interests in Ankara, including cooperation over Syria, Iraq and other regional issues.
His conclusion was that a full economic break with Iran would hurt Turkey but remain manageable, and that Washington is unlikely to demand one unless its strategy shifts significantly.
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