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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Useful Scientific Resources for the Coronavirus Outbreak

The coronavirus situation has roiled financial markets and created quite a bit of social concern.  I’m noticing quite a bit of misinformation and misguided decision making on the topic.  Below are sources that I have found helpful in following the science behind the outbreak and what that means going forward:
This Bedford Lab blog post tracks the history of the spread of the virus and notes what can be done to control it.  An important takeaway is that “social distancing” is essential to slowing and stopping the spread of the virus.  Lots of excellent links, including this one to the Nextstrain platform that is tracking the virus in real time.  Here is the Twitter link for Trevor Bedford.  Worth following.
*  Thanks to the Threadreader app, here’s a compilation of recent tweets from Liz Specht, and here’s her Twitter link.  Specht, from the Good Food Institute, lays out the implications of the math of viral transmission, especially in terms of strains on our healthcare system.  Note the difference between her analysis and that of Shang-You Tee below, based upon the dynamics of decay following exponential growth.
*  Here are a number of helpful perspectives from Scott Gottleib, MD, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, including needed prevention measures.
A valuable perspective based upon the slowing of cases in China is offered by data scientist Shang-You Tee, who tracks exponential increases in cases followed by rapid decay.  He emphasizes the importance of strong public health measures to contain viral spread, particularly the measures recently utilized in Singapore and Taiwan.  Worth reading.
There are lots of valuable takeaways from these sources.  The longer we delay personal and public prevention measures, the greater the spread will ultimately become.  As long as the spread becomes greater and wider, we can expect greater impacts on daily life and continued volatility in financial markets.  As in Taiwan, strong public health practices may limit the impact of the virus.
I am watching overseas markets closely, particularly in Asia, where we’ve seen some stabilization in markets in China and Taiwan and continued weakness in Italy and Singapore.  Per my recent post, this crisis is likely to create great opportunity for equities going forward, given the collapse in bond yields.  Sound–and well informed–risk management, however, will be needed to profit from such a scenario.  Prevention is key: If we wait to act until things are bad, they are almost certain to get meaningfully worse.
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http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/03/useful-scientific-resources-for.html

South Korea seeks to contain smaller outbreaks as new coronavirus cases slow

South Korea on Thursday reported 114 new cases of the coronavirus and six more deaths, resuming a relative decline in new cases after a spike the day before.

The new cases bring the country’s total to 7,869, with 66 deaths, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said (KCDC), as health officials seek to track down and contain a number of new clusters of infections, including at a call centre in the capital Seoul.
The numbers are far lower than the peak of 909 cases reported on Feb. 29, and health officials said the trend does appear to be slowing in what has been the largest outbreak in Asia outside of China.
Still, authorities say the coming days will be crucial in South Korea’s fight to contain the outbreak, and the government will double down on its efforts to prevent new clusters from spreading.
“It is too early to say we are overcoming the disease,” Yoon Tae-ho, director general for public health policy, said at a briefing.
“We are still witnessing sporadic outbreaks so we cannot lower our guard.”
Nineteen of the new cases reported on Thursday were in Seoul, where at least 102 people working at a call centre have tested positive for the coronavirus, raising concerns about a wider outbreak in the capital.
Nearly 800 people working in the call centre and 200 residents of the building have been tested, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon said.
“Containing the spread from the call centre is decisive in blocking additional transmission of the coronavirus,” Park said. “We will focus all necessary personal and material support on the area.”
Seventy-three of the new cases were from the city of Daegu, the epicentre of the country’s outbreak.
Yoon urged South Koreans across the country to avoid public gatherings and maintain “social distancing” from other people.
The government also said it would expand fever screening and other monitoring measures for people arriving from certain European countries.
South Korea is one of several countries affected by a new U.S. Defence Department decision announced on Thursday to restrict travel by its troops and their families for the next 60 days.
Around 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea, along with thousands of civilian employees and family members.
At least eight people connected to the U.S. military in South Korea have tested positive for the virus, and bases in the country have imposed some restrictions and additional screening at their gates.
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/South-Korea-seeks-to-contain-smaller-outbreaks-as-new-coronavirus-cases-slow–30147743/

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Tests indicate coronavirus can survive in the air

Federally funded tests conducted by scientists from several major institutions indicated that the novel form of coronavirus behind a worldwide outbreak can survive in the air for several hours.
A study awaiting peer review from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California-Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) posted online Wednesday indicated that the COVID-19 virus could remain viable in the air “up to 3 hours post aerosolization,” while remaining alive on plastic and other surfaces for up to three days.
“Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for 42 multiple hours and on surfaces up to days,” reads the study’s abstract.
The test results suggest that humans could be infected by the disease simply carried through the air or on a solid surface, even if direct contact with an infected person does not occur. That finding, if accepted, would come in stark contrast to previous media reports that suggested the virus was not easily transmittable outside of direct human contact.
Confirmed cases of coronavirus infection have crossed 121,000 worldwide, with more than 4,300 deaths. The majority of deaths have occurred in mainland China, where the virus is thought to have originated, and Italy, which is experiencing its own large-scale outbreak.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic on Wednesday, with officials warning that they were “deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction” by world governments to prevent the disease from spreading.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487110-tests-indicate-coronavirus-can-survive-in-the-air

States impose drastic measures to battle coronavirus

State and local governments are taking drastic and unprecedented measures aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus, an acknowledgment that parts of the country are past the point of containment.
Several cities are prohibiting large gatherings and events, big businesses are telling their workers to stay at home, and more classes are getting canceled at schools and universities.
Those disturbances to everyday life are likely to spread to other cities as an increase in testing reveals undetected cases, public health officials warned.
In Washington state, where there are almost 270 confirmed cases, Gov. Jay Inslee (D) on Wednesday announced a ban in three counties on gatherings of more than 250 people, the most drastic step taken yet by a state to contain the outbreak.
“The decisions that we’re making today and the decisions we probably will be making in the upcoming days are going to be profoundly disturbing to a lot of the ways we live our lives today,” Inslee said. “But I believe they are the right ones.”
The slow pace of testing by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) means it’s unclear exactly how many people have the coronavirus in the U.S. Inslee said there are “likely hundreds, if not thousands” of people in his state who have the virus but don’t know it.
While the CDC identified the first U.S. case in January, the agency and the public health labs it works with have tested fewer than 5,000 people for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
There are now more than 1,000 cases in the U.S., and states and cities are taking steps to slow the spread in an effort to prevent hospitals from becoming overburdened and unable to treat all types of patients.
San Francisco and Seattle are among the cities that have banned large gatherings of 1,000 people or more. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) of Washington, D.C., recommended all non-essential mass gatherings be canceled.
New York state officials created a one-mile containment area in New Rochelle, where 108 cases of the coronavirus have been confirmed. Within that area, schools, houses of worship and other facilities for large gatherings will be closed for two weeks.
More bans are likely to come this week, as commercial labs ramp up testing of suspected cases.
“We know that the rest of the nation will be where we are perhaps in a couple or three weeks and we hope that the things we’re doing aggressively here can set a template for the rest of the country,” Inlsee said.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) said he would issue an executive order in the coming days banning mass gatherings.
The CDC and public health officials have recommended the bans on large gatherings as a way to slow the spread of the virus, especially for areas that have more than 50 confirmed cases.
“We would recommend there not be large crowds. If that means not having any people in the audience when the NBA plays, so be it,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a congressional committee Wednesday. “Anything that has large crowds gives risk to spread.”
The CDC also is working with four jurisdictions to develop guidance to mitigate outbreaks “so the rest of the nation can see how to operationalize this,” Director Robert Redfield told Congress.
Still, he said, “there’s not a one-size-fits-all approach to the mitigation decisions that need to be made.”
But “serious mitigation” should be done before cases are detected in any given state, city or town, Fauci said.
“If we don’t do very serious mitigation now, what’s going to happen is that we’re going to be weeks behind, and the horse is going to be out of the barn,” he said. “Even in areas of the country, where there are no, or few cases. We’ve got to change our behavior. We have to essentially assume that we are going to get hit.”
Public health officials said “changing behavior” relies on the actions of individuals and the private sector and can include limiting movements outside the home by teleworking and avoiding crowds. Such steps are considered particularly necessary for the elderly and people with underlying health conditions who are more likely to die from COVID-19.
Google and Twitter are among major U.S. companies that have told their employees to work from home. Meanwhile, some professional sports teams have said they will play in empty arenas.
The crackdown comes as the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, meaning there is global spread on at least two continents.
The worsening situation in Italy, which is nearing 13,000 cases, has also foreshadowed what some experts say could happen in the U.S. if the country doesn’t “flatten” the curve of infections by reducing the number of people who are sick at the same time.
“We’re going to fight this epidemic as much as we can, and the reason is we do not want to see an avalanche of people coming into our hospitals with limited capacity,” Inslee said.
“We have a solid plan for increasing capacity as far as possible to accommodate, what could be thousands of people who need serious medical attention. But that will be stretched at best.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487109-states-impose-drastic-measures-to-battle-coronavirus

Trump’s Oval Office address about coronavirus pandemic

The President’s full address:
My fellow Americans, tonight I want to speak with you about our nation’s unprecedented response to the coronavirus outbreak that started in China and is now spreading throughout the world. Today the World Health Organization officially announced that this is a global pandemic. We have been in frequent contact with our allies and we are marshaling the full power of the federal government and the private sector to protect the American people.
This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history. I am confident that by counting and continuing to take these tough measures we will significantly reduce the threat to our citizens and we will ultimately and expeditiously defeat this virus. From the beginning of time nations and people have faced unforeseen challenges, including large-scale and very dangerous health threats. This is the way it always was and always will be. It only matters how you respond and we are responding with great speed and professionalism. Our team is the best anywhere in the world.
At the very start of the outbreak, we instituted sweeping travel restrictions on China and put in place the first federally mandated quarantine in over 50 years. With we declared a public health emergency and issued the highest level of travel warning on other countries as the virus spread its horrible infection. And taking early intense action we’ve seen dramatically fewer cases of the virus in the United States than are now present in Europe. The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hot spots. As a result a large number of new clusters in the United States were seeded by travelers from Europe. After consulting with our top government health professionals I have decided to take several strong but necessary actions to protect the health and well being of all Americans.
To keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight. These restrictions will be adjusted subject to conditions on the ground. There will be exemptions for Americans who have undergone appropriate screenings and these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing. These restrictions will also not apply to the United Kingdom. At the same time, we’re monitoring the situation in China and South Korea, and as their situation improves, we will re-evaluate the restrictions and warnings that are currently in place for a possible early opening.
Earlier this week I met with the leaders of health insurance industry who have agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments, extend insurance coverage to these treatments and to prevent surprise medical billing. We are cutting massive amounts of red tape to make anti-viral therapies available in record time. These treatments will significantly reduce the impact and reach of the virus. Additionally last week I signed into law an $8.3 billion funding bill to help CDC and other government agencies fight the virus and support vaccines, treatments and distribution of medical supplies. Testing and testing capabilities are expanding rapidly. Day by day, we’re moving very quickly.
The vast majority of Americans, the risk is very, very low. Young and healthy people can expect to recover fully and quickly if they should get the virus. The highest risk is for elderly population with underlying health conditions. The elderly population must be very, very careful. In particular, we’re strongly advising that nursing homes for the elderly suspend all medically unnecessary visits.
In general older Americans should also avoid non-essential travel in crowded areas. My administration is coordinated directly with communities with largest outbreaks and we have issued guidance on school closures, social distancing and reducing large gatherings.
Smart action today will prevent the spread of the virus tomorrow. Every community faces different risks, and it is critical for you to follow the guidelines of your local officials who are working closely with our federal health experts, and they are the best. For all Americans it is essential that everyone take extra precautions and practice good hygiene. Each of us has a role to play in defeating this virus. Wash your hands, clean often-used surfaces, cover your face and mouth if you sneeze or cough, and most of all if you are sick or not feeling well, stay home. To ensure that working Americans impacted by the virus can stay home without fear of financial hardship, I will soon be taking emergency action, which is unprecedented, to provide financial relief. This will be targeted for workers who are ill, quarantined or caring for others due to coronavirus. I will be asking Congress to take legislative action to extend this relief.
Because of the economic policies that we have put into place over the last three years, we have the greatest economy anywhere in the world by far. Our banks and financial institutions are fully capitalized and incredibly strong. Our unemployment is at a historic low. This vast economic prosperity gives us flexibility, reserves and resources to handle any threat that comes our way.
This is not a financial crisis; this is just a temporary moment of time that we will overcome together as a nation and as a world. However, to provide extra support for American workers, families and businesses, tonight I am announcing the following additional actions. I am instructing the small business administration to exercise available authority to provide capital and liquidity to firms affected by the coronavirus. Effective immediately the SBA will begin providing economic loans in affected states and territories. These low interest loans will help small businesses overcome temporary economic disruptions caused by the virus. To this end I’m asking Congress to increase funding for this program by an additional $50 billion.
Using emergency authority, I will be instructing the Treasury Department to defer tax payments without interest or penalties for certain individuals and businesses negatively impacted. This action will provide more than $200 billion of additional liquidity to the economy. Finally, I am calling on Congress to provide Americans with immediate payroll tax relief. Hopefully they will consider this very strongly.
We are at a critical time in the fight against the virus. We made a life-saving move with early action on China. Now we must take the same action with Europe. We will not delay. I will never hesitate to take any necessary steps to protect the lives, health and safety of the American people. I will always put the well being of America first. If we are vigilant, and we can reduce the chance of infection, which we will, we will significantly impede the transmission of the virus. The virus will not have a chance against us. No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States. We have the best economy, the most advanced health care, and the most talented doctors, scientists and researchers anywhere in the world. We are all in this together.
We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family. As history has proven time and time again, Americans always rise to the challenge and overcome adversity. Our future remains brighter than anyone could imagine. Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens and emerge from this challenge stronger and more unified than ever before. God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487163-read-president-trumps-oval-office-address-about-coronavirus-pandemic

Senate staffer tests positive for coronavirus

A staffer in Sen. Maria Cantwell‘s D.C. office has tested positive for the coronavirus, the Washington state Democratic senator announced on Wednesday night.
The announcement marks the first known instance of a congressional staffer getting the virus and follows days of heightened anxiety on Capitol Hill.
The staffer, according to a notice from Cantwell’s office, has been isolated since they started to have symptoms. Cantwell is closing her D.C. office for the remainder of the week for a deep cleaning.
“The individual who tested positive for COVID-19 has had no known contact with the senator or other members of Congress. The senator is requesting that testing be done on any other staffers who have been in contact with the individual and show symptoms,” the notice continues. 
It marked the latest development in escalating stream of coronavirus news coming out of the nation’s Capitol on Wednesday, where Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser declared a state of emergency after six additional cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. The House and Senate sergeants-at-ams are also preparing to announce the suspension of all tours in the Capitol in an effort to limit the potential spread of the virus on the hill.
“The two sergeant at arms … are preparing to announce that they will stop tours of the Capitol due to the coronavirus,” a source told The Hill.
Leadership has been under growing pressure to act, particularly given the advanced age of most lawmakers.
Older adults, especially those with existing medical conditions, are the most vulnerable to the novel coronavirus. On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged Americans older than 60 to avoid crowds—something that has been impossible in the Capitol in recent days.
Several lawmakers have self-quarantined after interacting with individuals who have the coronavirus, but none have tested positive.

DoD halts service member travel to nations most affected by Covid-19 60 days

The Defense Department (DOD) will implement a 60-day travel ban for service members, DOD civilians and their families to and from countries whose populations have been the most stricken by coronavirus, the Pentagon announced Wednesday night.
The restrictions, which go into effect Friday, ban all travel to, throughout and from locations designated as Level 3 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), including China, South Korea, Iran and Italy.
In addition, DOD civilians and service members’ families are banned from traveling to Level 2 countries, which currently include Japan, for 60 days.
“The Department of Defense’s top priority remains the protection and welfare of our people,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in a statement. “While directing this prudent action, I continue to delegate all necessary authority to commanders to make further decisions based on their assessments to protect their people and ensure mission readiness.
“While we deal with this fluid and evolving situation, I remain confident in our ability to protect our service members, civilians and families,” he added.
The coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, has infected more than 1,000 Americans and killed more than 30 thus far.
The Pentagon’s decision – which comes as President Trump announced that the United States would restrict travel from Europe for the next 30 days – will impact thousands of service members and their families based at U.S. military installations in South Korea, Japan and Italy.
The strict ban in Level 3 countries encompasses “all forms of travel,” including reassignments known as permanent changes of station, temporary duty and government-funded leave.
“Service secretaries and commanders may issue waivers to this policy as they determine necessary to ensure mission readiness and address specific cases,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
For the next 60 days, DOD will also implement “enhanced health care protocols” for anyone traveling to Level 2 or Level 3 nations.
DOD earlier on Wednesday also announced that it would reduce the number of troops expected to participate in a multinational exercise in Europe, as well as pull U.S. forces from a multinational Arctic exercise in Norway. Both drills had been curtailed due to concerns over coronavirus.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/487168-pentagon-halts-service-member-travel-to-countries-most-affected-by-coronavirus