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Monday, May 1, 2023

AI godfather Geoffrey Hinton warns of dangers as he quits Google

 A man widely seen as the godfather of artificial intelligence (AI) has quit his job, warning about the growing dangers from developments in the field.

Geoffrey Hinton, aged 75, announced his resignation from Google in a statement to the New York Times, saying he now regretted his work.

And in a BBC interview on Monday, he said: "I can now just speak freely about what I think the dangers might be.

"And some of them are quite scary."


Dr Hinton's pioneering research on deep learning and neural networks has paved the way for current AI systems like ChatGPT.

But the British-Canadian cognitive psychologist and computer scientist told the BBC the chatbot could soon overtake the level of information that a human brain holds.

"Right now, what we're seeing is things like GPT-4 eclipses a person in the amount of general knowledge it has and it eclipses them by a long way. In terms of reasoning, it's not as good, but it does already do simple reasoning.

"And given the rate of progress, we expect things to get better quite fast. So we need to worry about that. Right now, they're not more intelligent than us, as far as I can tell. But I think they soon may be."

In the New York Times article, Dr Hinton referred to "bad actors" who would try use AI for "bad things".

When asked by the BBC to elaborate on this, he replied: "This is just a kind of worst-case scenario, kind of a nightmare scenario.

"You can imagine, for example, some bad actor like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin decided to give robots the ability to create their own sub-goals."

The scientist warned that this eventually might "create sub-goals like 'I need to get more power'".

Dr Hinton also said there were several other reasons to quit his job.

"One is, I'm 75. So it's time to retire. Another was, I actually want to say some good things about Google. And they're more credible if I don't work for Google."

He stressed that he did not want to criticise Google and that the tech giant had been "very responsible".


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65452940

WEF survey says world will shed 14 million jobs by 2027

 The world will see an eye-popping number of jobs around the world shed by 2027, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Over the next half-decade, the total expected net number of jobs that will go away will be 14 million, the WEF said its "The Future of Jobs Report 2023" showed. That, according to the report, will represent a drop of roughly 2% "among the 673 million jobs corresponding to the dataset" it used.

The figure comes from companies saying they foresee more jobs getting done away than added, with the former coming in at an expected 83 million and the latter at 69 million, according to the WEF.

In the report, many companies surveyed cited "investments that facilitate the green transition of businesses, the broader application of ESG standards and supply chains becoming more localized" as some major trends playing into job growth. Over 50% also said further uptake of new technologies and digital access would aid net job growth for the next five years, according to the survey.

Over 80% of surveyed companies reported being "likely" or "highly likely" to incorporate digital platforms, education and workforce development technologies or big data analytics by 2027. Those were followed by "internet of things and connected devices," cloud computing, encryption and cybersecurity, and e-commerce, all of which over 75% of companies indicated they were planning to adopt, according to the report. 

Just under three quarters, 74.9%, said they’d likely bring on artificial intelligence. A net 25.6% of companies said AI would facilitate job creation. 

Here are the five jobs the WEF survey identified as having the most expected growth by 2027:

  • AI and Machine Learning Specialists.
  • Sustainability Specialists.
  • Business Intelligence Analysts.
  • Information Security Analysts.
  • FinTech Engineers.

Roughly the same share of organizations said "increased geopolitical divisions" would create jobs as those that said it would displace them, the WEF said. Such was the case with COVID-19 pandemic impacts, as well.

For job elimination, the report found "slower economic growth, supply shortages and the rising cost of inputs, and the rising costs of living for consumers" to be the strongest factors.

In the U.S., inflation measured by the consumer price index went up 0.1% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year in March, for example. 

Here are the five roles the WEF survey said were projected to have the most displacement:

  • Bank Tellers and Related Clerks.
  • Postal Service Clerks.
  • Cashiers and Ticket Clerks.
  • Data Entry Clerks.
  • Administrative and Executive Secretaries.

More than half of global workers will have their "core skills" remain unchanged in the coming five years, while 44% will see them shift, according to the survey. Many will need some form of additional workforce training, it also found. 

Considering jobs added and jobs lost, the WEF pegged the overall "structural labour market churn" projected by companies in the five-year timeframe to come in at 23%.

The survey involved over 800 companies across various industries around the world.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wef-survey-world-shed-14-million-jobs-2027

At Milken, investors praise bank rescue but brace for more drama

  Investors breathed easier on Monday after a weekend auction found a buyer for troubled First Republic Bank, though some said they were worried the crisis in regional banks is not over and hedge funds bet other dominos may still fall.

As Wall Street money managers, banking executives and pension fund managers gathered at the Milken Institute Global Conference, the main topic over cocktails on Sunday night and in conference rooms the following morning was JPMorgan Chase & Co's purchase of First Republic Bank.

"There is a little bit of a tendency to breathe a sigh of relief on mornings like this and I think we got through that," David Hunt, chief executive of global asset manager PGIM said at the conference.

Actually, the drama may be "just starting," he said.

Policymakers, executives and investors at the conference said constrained lending as a result of banking sector regulation could choke off credit to the economy.

For hedge funds, many of whom have spent weeks betting regional bank stocks would fall further, the scenario has created a chance to add new short positions or keep existing ones, several executives at large funds said.

Shares of several regional lenders fell on Monday, a sign that investor nerves were still on edge after First Republic’s collapse, the third major casualty of the biggest crisis to hit the U.S. banking sector since 2008.

Senior banking executives said they were gauging how aggressive short-sellers might be in coming weeks and which of the regional banks might be burdened with significant loans for office real estate at a time many buildings are standing empty as employees continue to work from home.

"The real estate we're more worried about is more of the bottom end of the stack of CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities)," Citigroup Chief Executive Jane Fraser told a panel. "It will be a stress point for sure."


Vertex Keeps Outlook Despite Beating Views

 Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) retained its full-year outlook Monday despite beating quarterly expectations, and VRTX stock toppled in late trades.

For the year, the company still expects $9.55 billion to $9.7 billion in product sales. That doesn't include other sources of revenue, such as  licensing deals or royalties. The guidance is in line with analyst projections for nearly $9.7 billion.

In after-hours trading on today's stock market, VRTX stock fell 2.2% near 337.50.

Vertex is the leading maker of cystic fibrosis treatments. Product sales climbed 13% to $2.37 billion and beat forecasts for $2.34 billion. The company's triple regimen, dubbed Trikafta in the U.S., brought in the lion's share of sales at nearly $2.1 billion. Other CF treatments generated $278.1 million in sales.

The company's adjusted earnings declined 13% to $3.05 per share, but were still above projections for $3.01 a share, according to FactSet.

"Vertex delivered a strong start to 2023, with outstanding execution across our business," Chief Executive Reshma Kewalramani said in a written statement.

She noted Vertex and partner Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) have finished filing their request for approval of a CRISPR-based gene-editing treatment for two blood diseases. Approval of that treatment, dubbed exa-cel, could buoy VRTX stock.

"Over the course of this year, we look forward to continuing to expand our leadership in CF, preparing for near-term launches, including exa-cel and advancing multiple potentially transformative medicines through mid- and late-stage clinical trials," she said.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/vrtx-stock-vertex-earnings-q1-2023/

Stryker lifts profit forecast on robust demand for devices

 Medical technology company Stryker Corp on Monday raised its full-year profit forecast, citing stronger demand for the company's surgical devices.

Device makers, lately, have been reporting a recovery in sales as staff shortages ease and procedure volumes pick up in hospitals. Last week, peer Edwards Lifesciences Corp raised its sales and profit forecasts for 2023, citing strong demand for the company's artificial heart valves.

For the first quarter, Stryker posted a 11% rise in device sales in its medical surgery and neurotechnology unit, while sales in the orthopaedics and spine segment went up by 13%.

Excluding items, the device maker reported a profit of $2.14 per share for the quarter ended March 31, beating analysts' estimate of $2.00 per share, according to Refinitiv data. Net sales rose 12% to $4.78 billion, compared to estimates of $4.56 billion.

Stryker said supply chain pressures are gradually improving and it expects pricing to be relatively neutral for the year.

The company expects its 2023 organic net sales to grow between 8% and 9%, based on a strong order book for capital equipment and ongoing procedural recovery. It had previously expected a 7.0% to 8.5% sales growth in the year.

Stryker now expects a profit of between $10.05 and $10.25 per share, up from its prior forecast of $9.85 to $10.15 per share. Analysts expect a profit of $10.03 per share in 2023. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stryker-lifts-profit-forecast-robust-204347665.html

Dual CRISPR therapy plus long-acting ART eliminates HIV in mice

 In a study published May 1 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a research team led by scientists from the Lewis Katz School of Medicine at Temple University and the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) described how they used CRISPR to inactivate or snip out two different genes in HIV-infected humanized mice. By combining this approach with a long-acting form of antiretroviral therapy, the researchers were able to eliminate the virus in around 60% of the models—a big boost from the 29% they reported back in 2019.

“This isn’t starting from scratch—it’s building on an observation we made the first time we eliminated HIV,” Howard Gendelman, M.D., co-senior author, UNMC scientist and co-founder of Exavir Therapeutics, told Fierce Biotech Research in an interview. “The big news is the addition of two gene therapies.”

Soon after infection, HIV DNA integrates itself into the host genome, making it impossible to cure with current antiretroviral therapy, or ART, alone. And, while ART has made it possible for patients to go from living for just a year following an AIDS diagnosis to having virtually the same life span as individuals without HIV, it’s not without drawbacks. The virus is still present throughout the body, so patients must take medications every day for the rest of their lives to keep it suppressed. That can lead to drug resistance and other complications, Gendelman explained.

“That’s the reason we need a cure,” he said.

In the new study, the teams from Temple University and the University of Nebraska laid out a careful strategy that started with dosing HIV-positive mice with long-acting slow-effective release, or LASER-ART—an ART protocol co-developed by Gendelman and fellow Exavir co-founder Benson Edagwa, Ph.D.

One month later, first author Prasanta Dash, Ph.D., used CRISPR-Cas9 that was developed in the laboratory of Kamel Khalili, Ph.D., of Temple by co-first authors Rafal Kaminski, Ph.D., and Chen Chen to inactivate the gene for CCR5. Knowing from previous experiments that CCR5 levels dropped to their lowest levels seven days later, he and his team at that point initiated a second CRISPR-Cas9 treatment, which was also designed and developed in the Khalili laboratory, to remove the integrated copies of HIV-1 DNA from the host genome, the same one they deleted in the project published in 2019. 

Next came the waiting game. The scientists wanted to be sure the virus wouldn’t rebound, so they continued the experiment for a full two months. In mice, HIV rebound usually occurs within two weeks of treatment.

When it was time to see whether the virus had been successfully eliminated, the researchers used multiple highly sensitive techniques to ensure they hadn’t missed even one copy, checking not only their blood but all the organ systems the virus was known to infiltrate. They found no trace of it in six of the 10 animals in the treatment group. Replicating the study gave a similar result: Five of the nine treated mice in a second round of experiments were completely virus free.

“The importance of this strategy is twofold: First, CRISPR remains the method of choice for permanent elimination of the virus, and second, this combination for targeting the virus along with some other method to prevent spread, such as inactivation of CCR5 by CRISPR, can be improved for permanent elimination of the virus,” Khalili said. 

Why did the virus rebound in some of the models? While there are several possible answers, it most likely comes down to the ability of the drug delivery system—in this case, an adeno-associated virus—to get into all the body compartments where pockets of HIV form.

“We have no doubts about the usefulness of gene therapy or the ART, but we do need a better delivery system,” Khalili said.

That’s one of many projects the labs are tackling next as they work to bring the therapy to the clinic. They’re especially interested in developing systems that will make it possible to deliver multiple treatments of a single type of gene therapy, as the current single serotypes of viral vectors can only be given once to avoid a dangerous immune reaction, Gendelman noted. The researchers are also looking to develop highly targeted nanoparticles as well as several other modified, efficient and harmless viral vectors that will bind to the CCR5 co-receptor and deliver the HIV-1 gene therapy directly to sites of active growth. Alternatively, modified viral vectors with high efficiency for delivery of the therapeutic molecules such as CRISPR are in the process of being developed

While the ultimate aim is to get the therapy to the clinic, the team has more to learn. They hope to gain some insight from an ongoing phase 1/2 clinical trial on their HIV-1 gene therapy. The trial is being conducted by Excision BioTherapeutics, of which Khalili is a co-founder.  

“Our next goal is to improve the efficacy of the approach and CRISPR toward the elimination and prevention of the virus’ spread,” Khalili said. “I think [combination gene editing] is where we need to get to, but we need to learn a little about each step.”

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/research/dual-crispr-therapy-plus-long-acting-art-eliminates-hiv-mice

Occludin protein plays key role in spread of coronavirus throughout body’s cells

 While the coronavirus continues to infect people around the world, researchers at the University of Missouri have identified a specific protein inside the human body that plays a critical role in how the virus spreads from cell to cell after infection — a discovery that will help better understand the COVID-19 disease and could lead to the development of new antiviral drugs in the future.

The finding provides new insight into how the protein, known as the occludin protein, serves as a mediator for cell-to-cell transmission of the virus.

“Despite all the mitigation strategies implemented since the start of the pandemic, including the vaccines and antiviral drugs, we are still working to effectively control the spread of this disease, which continues to infect people each day, including those who have been vaccinated and exposed to the virus before,” said Wenjun Ma, an associate professor in the MU College of Veterinary Medicine and the MU School of Medicine and lead author of the study. “This basic, scientific research is very important to better understand the underlying mechanisms of disease progression inside the body’s cells so that the proper countermeasures can be identified and developed.”

Ma and his team examined how the coronavirus spreads throughout cells by analyzing cell samples at the MU Laboratory for Infectious Disease Research. The lab serves as a critical resource for MU faculty and collaborating scientists who perform research on infectious diseases to help protect public health in the United States and abroad.

In the study, Ma found that when the occludin protein in a single cell is damaged by the coronavirus, the virus is able to quickly replicate and spread to neighboring cells throughout the body, making the infection worse and symptoms potentially more severe.

Ma said this newly discovered knowledge could assist developers of antiviral drugs by examining the potential impact the antiviral drugs have in strengthening the occludin protein against infection.

“Whether it is studying how the virus enters the cell in the first place or studying the virus replication process, this basic, scientific research helps us learn more about how the disease progresses,” Ma said. “We learned that the virus may only start off by infecting a singular cell, but cells are incredibly complex, and when the occludin protein gets damaged, the virus quickly replicates and spreads to neighboring cells. For example, if only one cell in the lungs is infected at first, the ability to breathe may not be significantly impacted. However, once the virus spreads to neighboring cells throughout the lungs, it can lead to difficulty breathing and other respiratory problems.”

Going forward, Ma plans to study if other viral infections also impact the occludin protein in an effort to better understand how viruses interact at the cellular level with the hosts they infect.

“Tight junction protein occludin is an internalization factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection and mediates virus cell-to-cell transmission” was recently published in PNAS. Funding for the study was provided by the University of Missouri start-up fund, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers of Excellence in Influenza Research and Response, the Kansas University Medical Center and the Peachtree Collaborative Orthomolecular Medicine, Education, and Research Foundation. Co-authors on the study include Jialin Zhang, Wenyu Yang, Sawrab Roy, Heidi Liu, R. Michael Roberts, Liping Wang and Lei Shi.