Russia to Export Coal to India Via Iran. It’s a 4 Alarm Bells Fire

 Hello sanction lovers. What are you going to do about this?

Russia Plans Coal Exports to India Via Iran

ShippingNews reports Russia plans coal exports to India via Iran

Russia has announced plans to export coal to India using Iran’s railways. This announcement was made during the BRICS transport ministers’ meeting at the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

Russia will use the International North-South Corridor (INSTC) to send coal to India. Igor Levitin, Russia’s presidential aide, stated that the first coal shipments will travel through Iran and Bandar Abbas before reaching India.

Mehrdad Bazrpash, Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development, emphasized the importance of the INSTC in enhancing transportation and transit among BRICS countries. During a video conference, he noted that this corridor could significantly boost synergy in the region.

In a meeting with Iran’s Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, Levitin reiterated that the first coal wagons would transit through Iran and Bandar Abbas en route to India. Both sides discussed cooperation, particularly the Rasht-Astara Railway construction project. This project is crucial for improving transportation links between Iran and Russia.

In a separate meeting, Oleg Belozyorov, president of Russian Railways, discussed expanding bilateral cooperation with Iran’s ambassador. They focused on implementing the INSTC and enhancing railway cooperation to boost freight transport between the two nations.

In 2023, Russia transported 600,000 tons of freight through Iran. This volume is expected to rise to 4 million tons per year in 2024, according to Russia’s deputy minister of transport. This significant increase underscores the importance of the INSTC for regional trade and cooperation.

Understanding the Importance

This announcement was made at the BRICS transport ministers’ meeting but that does not imply any progress on a BRICS currency.

To understand why, please see What Would it Take for a BRIC-Based Currency to Succeed?

However, the announcement does show how increasingly difficult it will be for the US to tell the world what to do.

How Many Tons of Coal?

Four Alarm Bells Fire

Biden will have concerns about Russia, Iran, the environment, and the fact that an ally effectively told the US to go to hell.

The ability of the US to tell the world what to do is ending. In may places, that ability has already ended.

February 18, 2024: How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors

February 29, 2024: Sanction Irony, Trade Between Iran and Russia Soars as SWIFT Circumvented

April 23, 2024: The US Threatens to Sanction Companies That Don’t Give a Damn

May 20: The Futility of the US Trade War With China in Two Pictures

May 21, 2014: Another Sanction Failure: The US Blacklisted Xiaomi Three Years Ago Now it Makes EVs

US sanction madness has resulted in failure 100 percent of the time. Let’s review my favorite set of posts in this sanction series.

Biden Eases Sanctions on Venezuela, Blocks Rare Earth Mining in Alaska

The Inflation Reduction Act was supposed to increase permitting in the US. As the election nears, Biden is blocking oil drilling and mining in the Alaska.

Please consider Biden Eases Sanctions on Venezuela, Blocks Rare Earth Mining in Alaska

The most galling aspect of the [Inflation Reduction Act] bait and switch is a desperate need for rare earth minerals including gallium and germanium.

Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy

Please consider a Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy

Our own Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, windmills, batteries, and aircraft on a critical materials list.

Nearly all of the minerals on the US critical materials list are mined or refined in China. In April, Biden just blocked production in the US.

It’s not only political madness, it’s economic madness.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/russia-to-export-coal-to-india-via-iran-its-a-4-alarm-bells-fire/

Buy Now, Pay Later Craze Coming To Apple Pay

 Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference kicked off on Monday and was widely disappointing. What wasn't disappointing was Elon Musk's threat to ban Apple devices from his companies following Apple's announcement of a partnership with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI.

In other Apple news, iPhones and iPads will soon be integrated with Affirm's buy now, pay later feature. This product will soon be available for Apple Pay users.

First appearing in Affirm's 8-k filing on Tuesday morning, new "payment products are expected to be available to Apple Pay users in the United States later this year." 

"This will enable those users checking out online or in-app with Apple Pay on iPhone and iPad to be able to apply to pay over time with Affirm," the fintech company wrote in the filing. 

It noted, "Affirm does not expect this partnership to have a material impact on revenue or gross merchandise volume in fiscal year 2025." 

Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev wrote in a note to clients, "The news is a big positive for AFRM, especially since the stock traded down several times in the past when Apple announced its entry into BNPL." 

Shares of Affirm are up nearly 6% in the first hour of the US cash session.

In recent years, we've outlined the explosion in BNPL use among consumers.

Bloomberg data featuring "BNPL" headlines in corporate media has rocketed higher since the onset of Covid, signifying the payment method first became popular in early 2020.

Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements has warned that BNPL adoption is high among young adults, particularly those with low education. The report said this is a troubling trend, given that overuse and poor understanding of the service can be disastrous for consumers and lead to overindebtedness. 

Why Apple is only now deciding to embed BNPL into Apple Pay may reflect a recent theme Goldman has pushed out about a struggling consumer.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/buy-now-pay-later-craze-coming-apple-pay

Supreme Court Rules 9–0 For IRS, Denying Refund In Estate Tax Dispute

 by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Supreme Court ruled unanimously in favor of the IRS on June 6 in a dispute over taxing shareholders’ life insurance policies.

Justice Clarence Thomas wrote the court’s 9–0 decision in Connelly v. Internal Revenue Service.

The case concerns two brothers’ closely held corporation. After one of the brothers died, tax authorities and the estate didn’t agree on the value of the stock.

Closely held corporations commonly enter into agreements that require the redemption of a shareholder’s stock after the shareholder dies to preserve the closely held nature of the business. Under such routine estate-planning devices, corporations purchase life insurance on the shareholder to make sure the transaction is funded.

The Supreme Court held that life insurance proceeds that will be used to redeem a decedent’s shares must be included when calculating the value of those shares for purposes of the federal estate tax.

The appeal of Thomas Connelly, executor of the estate of Michael Connelly, was rejected by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit in June 2023.

The IRS said the estate owed close to $1 million after it found that St. Louis-based Crown C Corp., a building materials business, failed to report life insurance proceeds after Michael Connelly died in 2013.

Michael Connelly, who was president and CEO of the corporation when he died, owned 77.18 percent of the company’s shares, while Thomas Connelly owned 22.82 percent.

The executor filed an estate tax return reporting the value of his brother’s shares as $3 million, but the IRS conducted an audit in which an accounting firm valued the shares at more than $3.8 million at the time of the brother’s death.

The IRS determined that the life insurance proceeds needed to be included in the valuation of the corporation, which meant the company had a value of $6.8 million at the date of death. The IRS found that the estate owed an additional $890,000. The estate paid the amount and then sued the tax agency in federal court in Missouri.

The Supreme Court examined whether a life insurance policy obtained to finance the company’s repurchase of the deceased co-owner’s shares should be factored into the valuation of the stock.

The estate argued the stock shouldn’t be taxed because the proceeds were to be used to repurchase the outstanding shares. The IRS countered that the shares were subject to tax based on the fair market value as measured by what they could be sold for when the co-owner died.

The case concerns an important question of federal tax law on which the federal courts of appeal disagree, according to the surviving brother’s petition.

Under the Internal Revenue Code, when an individual dies, his or her estate is subject to federal estate tax calculated, based on the fair market value of the estate’s holdings at the time of the death.

“In many cases, fair market value can be determined through a straightforward analysis of public markets. But when a particular type of asset is not freely traded, fair market value must be determined on the basis of assessment and evaluation,” the petition states.

“Under applicable Treasury regulations, life-insurance proceeds payable to a corporation may be relevant to determining the value of a decedent’s stock in the corporation in some circumstances but not others.

“The question presented is whether the proceeds of a life insurance policy taken out by a closely held corporation on a shareholder in order to facilitate the redemption of the shareholder’s stock should be considered a corporate asset when calculating the value of the shareholder’s shares for purposes of the federal estate tax.”

In his new opinion, Justice Thomas recounted that the Connelly brothers entered into an agreement to make sure the company would stay in the family if either brother died. In that pact, the corporation could be forced to purchase the deceased brother’s shares.

To finance the possible share redemption, the corporation took out life insurance on each brother. After Michael Connelly died, there was a dispute over how to value his shares for calculating the estate tax.

“The central question is whether the corporation’s obligation to redeem Michael’s shares was a liability that decreased the value of those shares,“ Justice Thomas wrote. ”We conclude that it was not and therefore affirm [the decision of the Eighth Circuit].”

The justice explained that when Michael Connelly died, the corporation was worth almost $4 million and the family valued his shares at about $3 million. However, the tax agency took the view that the corporation’s value was closer to $7 million because of the $3 million in insurance proceeds. This made the decedent’s shares worth a little more than $5 million.

“Because a fair-market-value redemption has no effect on any shareholder’s economic interest, no willing buyer purchasing Michael’s shares would have treated Crown’s obligation to redeem Michael’s shares at fair market value as a factor that reduced the value of those shares,” Justice Thomas wrote.

The justice wrote, “Redemption obligations are not necessarily liabilities that reduce a corporation’s value for purposes of the federal estate tax.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supreme-court-rules-9-0-irs-denying-refund-estate-tax-dispute

Companies Unleash 2nd Biggest Stock Buyback On Record Before Buyback Blackout Friday

 How powerful are stock buybacks? Think of this way: back on April 22, we bottom-ticked the market when we reported that  with the S&P dipping below 5,000, stocks were set to soar as "traders frontrun the end of buyback blackout period."

The S&P took and and hasn't looked back since.

And even though both institutional and retail activity in the period since the end of April had been rather muted, there has been one constant, relentless, price-indiscriminate buyer all the way: corporate buybacks. Yes, there is a reason why frontrunning the end of stock buyback period was such a powerful force, because in this market, buybacks have long ago emerged as the primary buying force, amounting to some $5 billion in daily stock purchases, eclipsing all other natural buyers.

Sure enough, as Bank of America writes in its latest Equity Client Flow Trends report (available to pro subs), "client buybacks give an early read on S&P 500 buyback trends and suggest a continued pick-up." According to the bank, corporate buybacks last week "were the second-largest in our weekly history since ‘10, and have been tracking above typical seasonal levels for 13 weeks."

In fact, in 2024, corporate client buybacks as a % of S&P500 mkt. cap are 0.44%, and are well above ‘23 YTD highs 0.34% at this time. And, with the tech sector widely outperforming all others in 2024, it will come as no surprise that "70% of announced S&P 500 buybacks YTD have been in Tech/Comm services," Indeed, one look at Apple's stock today, which has exploded higher, shows what happens when some of the stock's massive $110BN recent buyback authorization is put to use.

There is another reason why tech stocks have been surging in recent days on the back of aggressive stock buybacks: the next buyback blackout period is about the begin, and companies either aggressively pursue buybacks now, or are forced to do nothing for the next 4-6 weeks.

As Goldman's Vani Ranganath writes in her Share Repurchase Weekly Recap note (available to pro subscribers), the bank's buyback desk was almost as busy as Bank of America and "flows were active again with desk volumes finishing 2.0x vs 2023 YTD ADTV and 1.1x vs 2022 YTD ADTV skewed toward Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Tech."

Why? Becuase as Vani explains, "this week is the final week ahead of the estimated blackout period. We estimate the upcoming blackout period will run 6/14 – 7/19." And while as of Monday, Goldman estimates that around ~20% of stocks are in blackout ~50% are set to be prohibited from repurchasing their shares once the blackout period begins on Friday, June 14.

One final point: on the authorization front, 2024 YTD authorizations stand at $621.4B, up 1.3% vs 2023 YTD authorizations...

... and with executions lagging, it appears that most companies waited until he last possible moment.

In other words, companies - such as Apple - are now rushing to buyback as much stock as they can now ahead of the blackout, and spark as much momentum inertia as they can, before the blackout period begins on Friday.

And yes, to those wondering, while the end of buyback blackout period back in May was an extremely bullish catalyst for markets, so the start of the blackout period this Friday will be a bearish trigger, and don't be surprised if stocks end up sliding for the next 4 weeks as the biggest buyer of stocks - companies themselves - is now on forced vacation until mid-July.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/companies-unleash-2nd-biggest-stock-buyback-spree-record-ahead-buyback-blackout-friday

Supreme Court will hear case claiming US underpays hospitals serving needy patients

 The Supreme Court will decide a dispute about hospital reimbursement rates under Medicare, with hundreds of hospitals arguing the government had shorted them for treating low-income patients.

More than 200 hospitals in more than 30 states, led by Advocate Christ Medical Center in Illinois, have asked the justices to overturn a lower court ruling that allows the Department of Health and Human Services to reimburse a lower rate for treating a high proportion of low-income patients. The dispute, which the hospitals said could affect more than $4 billion in federal funds, hinges on how to determine which patients count toward that reimbursement rate and follows a 2022 Supreme Court decision over the same program.

The justices announced Monday that they would decide the case, which means oral arguments and a decision would come in the next term that starts in October.

The hospitals argued in a petition that HHS should base the “Disproportionate Share Hospital” rate on Medicare patients who are enrolled in Social Security’s Supplemental Security Income program, regardless of whether that patient is actually receiving cash payments at the time of admission.

Hundreds of hospitals across the country rely on the DSH reimbursement to keep treating patients well, or even keep their doors open, the hospitals’ petition stated.

“By reducing compensation to hospitals already operating on the brink of insolvency, improperly suppressed DSH payments leave patients served by safety net hospitals in peril,” the petition said.

The Biden administration has defended its position, which hinges on whether the patient is actually receiving cash payments at the time of hospital admission. That smaller number was upheld by a decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit because the statute says a patient must be “entitled” to the SSI cash benefit to count toward reimbursement.

In a Supreme Court brief, the administration argued that only SSI cash benefits, not non-cash services like rehabilitation, count toward the law’s reimbursement formula. Also, the administration said that, because a patient’s eligibility for SSI can change from month to month, the reimbursement calculation should hinge on when a patient is actually paid the cash benefit, rather than simply enrolled.

“The decision of the court of appeals — which sustained the interpretation of the SSI portion of the Medicare fraction that HHS has followed since the outset of the DSH program — is correct and does not conflict with any decision by this Court or another court of appeals,” the Biden administration brief stated.

The case follows from a 2022 decision by the court in Becerra v. Empire Health Foundation, where the justices said HHS could base the reimbursement rate on whether a patient was eligible for Medicare, regardless of whether their Medicare coverage paid for the service received.

The hospitals argued that the Biden administration has taken the opposite position on SSI benefits, parsing when someone is “entitled” to a benefit rather than looking at the category of Medicare eligibility as the court upheld in Empire.

The dispute covers reimbursement for the years 2006 to 2009, but the petition said taking the case could prevent years of future litigation.

“Conclusively resolving the question presented is also essential to forestall continued litigation arising from the agency’s inability to otherwise get payments right,” the petition said.

https://rollcall.com/2024/06/10/supreme-court-to-decide-medicare-reimbursement-issue/

Olympic athletes turn to diabetes tech in pursuit of medals

 Olympians including Dutch marathon runner Abdi Nageeye are using a new tool they hope will boost their medal chances this summer: tiny monitors that attach to the skin to track blood glucose levels.

Continuous glucose monitors or CGMs were developed for use by diabetes patients but their makers, led by Abbott and Dexcom, also spy opportunities in sports and wellness.

The Paris Olympics, which start on July 26, are an opportunity to showcase the technology - even though there is as yet no proof it can boost athletic performance.

"I do see a day where CGM is certainly going to be used outside of diabetes in a big way," said Dexcom's Chief Operating Officer Jacob Leach.

Diabetes patients remain the CGM specialist's commercial focus, he told Reuters, but Dexcom is also working with researchers on future use to optimise athletic performance. He would not disclose details.

The CGM market is already worth billions of dollars thanks to demand from diabetes patients, who use the coin-sized adhesive skin patches with a Bluetooth link to a smartphone instead of drawing blood through a finger stick. The readings help determine whether they need an insulin dose.

In March, Dexcom's Stelo device, targeting people with early-stage diabetes who are not on insulin, became the first CGM to win U.S. approval for purchase without a prescription. Launch is planned for this summer.

Abbott introduced a CGM product for amateur and elite sports users without diabetes in Europe as early as 2020 and has sponsored Kenyan marathon great Eliud Kipchoge and his team since 2021. Top athletes and their support staff have been using CGMs to optimise calorie intake and workout intensity as they prepare for sport events.

Abbott said it is targeting the non-diabetic consumer market.

On Monday it won U.S. approval for its prescription-free Lingo device and smartphone app for health and wellbeing, available in Britain since January at a cost of 120-150 pounds ($152-$190) per month.

Also on Monday, Abbott won U.S. clearance for its non-prescription system Libre Rio for people with diabetes who do not need insulin, to compete with Dexcom's Stelo.

Sales of Abbott's FreeStyle Libre range, the most commonly used CGMs, rose 23% to $5.3 billion in 2023 on demand from diabetes patients who value their ease of use and monitoring precision. Dexcom saw 2023 revenue grow 24% to $3.6 billion.

Research firm GlobalData forecasts the lifestyle CGM market could grow nearly 15% a year to reach $9.9 billion by 2031, partly driven by users of weight-loss drugs like Wegovy who seek med-tech gadgets to support dieting efforts.

Other market researchers estimate the overall CGM market including diabetic use, with suppliers like Medtronic, will grow 9-10% annually over five years.

PREPARING FOR PARIS

Dutch marathoner Nageeye, who won silver at the Tokyo Olympics, said he and his coaches are monitoring blood glucose as an indicator of the body's available energy, part of his quest for an "effortless run".

CGM use has guided Nageeye, who has qualified for Paris, to work on sleeping and eating patterns so that he expends a minimum of energy during training.

"That's your energy, actually, that's your fuel. We have to monitor that," said Nageeye. His team has been sponsored by Abbott since April 2021.

Australian swimmer Chelsea Hodges, who won relay gold at the Tokyo Olympics, said CGMs had helped her remedy bouts of extreme exhaustion and dizziness during endurance training by making adjustments to her calorie intake and training times.

She spoke to Reuters while preparing for Paris, but recently ended her swimming career due to hip problems.

While companies see growth potential in the gadgets, sports nutrition scientists see a promising field of research.

"A big guesswork for endurance athletes has always been: am I training hard enough or am I training too hard? It seems with CGMs, we have a better understanding," said Associate Professor Filip Larsen of the Swedish School of Sport and Health Sciences.

Larsen, also chief science officer of sports performance consultancy firm svexa, said the firm has been analysing CGM data collected by several athletes and teams. He said svexa is not sponsored by any CGM maker.

Larsen warned, however, that there was little validated science yet on how to optimise an athlete's routines using CGMs.

"Most researchers cannot give you the exact answers. In five years, we will know 10 times as much as we do now."

But the field is abuzz with trials and experiments, including work on glucose-measuring contact lenses.

Sports dietician Greg Cox, associate professor at Australia's Bond University, has worked with swimmers including Hodges and rowers, triathletes and track athletes.

Results of a trial run by his team to test how not eating enough calories to sustain the intensity of exercise would affect endurance athletes' glucose readings have so far been inconclusive, and he said more research into CGMs was needed.

Both Cox and Larsen expressed scepticism about non-diabetic consumers using the technology for health and fitness without professional advice.

"What I see on social media is that normal, healthy people get scared when they had one banana and their blood glucose goes up really high for one hour. This is completely expected and a normal response," said Larsen.

Market leader Abbott told Reuters that understanding blood-glucose swings is key to managing one's metabolism for a healthier life.

"While glucose spikes are normal in healthy people, we also know that having fewer frequent and large spikes and crashes in glucose is associated with improved energy, mood, focus, sleep, and reduces cravings," a spokesperson said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/olympic-athletes-turn-diabetes-tech-050639779.html

'Doctors, Medical Groups Call For Focus On Mental Health In Gender-Confused Children'

 by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 100 medical professionals and groups have signed onto a declaration that calls for a shift in focus toward addressing underlying psychological problems in children who experience discomfort with their sex.

The Doctors Protecting Children Declaration was issued by pediatricians, doctors, researchers, medical ethics advocates, and faith-based medical groups on June 6 at a news conference in Washington.

Spearheaded by the conservative American College of Pediatricians (ACPeds), the declaration highlights the long-term risks of subjecting gender-confused children to “gender-affirming” interventions, which involves “social transition” such as changing one’s name and appearance to align with a preferred gender, as well as the use of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and genital surgeries.

Instead, psychotherapy for underlying mental health issues such as depression, autism, anxiety, and emotional trauma should be the “first line of treatment” for children who are confused or distressed about their sex, the declaration states.

“We are here defying the claims made by these medical organizations in the U.S. that those of us who are concerned are a minority, and that their protocols are consensus,” Dr. Jill Simmons, a pediatrician and the executive director of ACPeds, said at the event. “They are not consensus, and we are speaking in a loud and unified voice: Enough.”

Dr. Simmons was referring to protocols developed by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH), an international nonprofit group dedicated to the study of transgender health.

WPATH’s guidelines, known as Standard of Care 8, recommend that adolescent patients diagnosed with “gender incongruence” be given access to puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries, as long as they can demonstrate “the emotional and cognitive maturity required to provide informed consent/assent for the treatment.”

However, recently leaked internal videos and documents appeared to show that some WPATH members have questioned whether children were able to understand the full ramifications of those drugs and procedures.

Dr. Andre Van Mol, a Navy veteran-turned-family physician and adolescent sexuality expert at ACPeds, echoed such concerns.

“Minors cannot give truly informed consent,” he said at the June 4 event, speaking on behalf of the ACPeds, the Christian Medical and Dental Associations, and the American Academy of Medical Ethics. “Children have developing and immature brains, their minds change often, they are prone to risk-taking, they are vulnerable to peer pressure, and they don’t grasp long-term consequences.”

When it comes to the appropriate approaches to treating children who express discomfort with their sex, Dr. Van Mol spoke in favor of the traditional “desistance” method, saying that in most cases, those feelings will resolve on their own over the normal developmental process of puberty.

“The natural course of gender dysphoria is desistance by adulthood conservatively in 85 percent of the cases unless it is affirmed,” the doctor said, citing numbers matching a 2021 study on desistance among boys with gender identity concerns.

“The probability of both desistance and underlying mental health and other issues, is why watchful waiting, coupled with mental health evaluation and counseling for both patient and family, was once and is increasingly again recognized as the standard of care for minors with gender dysphoria,” he said.

Stressing the importance of focusing on identifying and addressing the patient’s underlying psychological problems, Dr. Van Mol urges health providers to pursue “mental health alternatives” instead of gender transition.

“Transition affirmation ... does not reduce suicides,” he said. “It does not repair mental health issues or trauma.”

“There are good mental health alternatives to gender-affirming health care which address underlying issues, rather than dodging them,” the family physician added. “There is always a more honest way to deal with gender confusion than the chemical sterilization and surgical mutilation of healthy young bodies.”

The June 4 declaration also noted that several European countries have paused transgender medical interventions for children and, citing a need for caution, are instead focusing on addressing the underlying mental health issues.

Sweden, for example, decided in 2022 to restrict hormone therapy for children except in very rare cases, and ruled that mastectomies—the surgical removal of one of both breasts—for teenage girls wanting to transition may be performed only in a research setting. More recently, in April, Scotland’s health authority paused the prescription of puberty blockers to new patients younger than 18.

The declaration urges medical organizations in the United States to follow suit and “immediately stop” promoting the WPATH protocols.

It reads, “We also encourage the physicians who are members of these professional organizations to contact their leadership and urge them to adhere to the evidence-based research now available.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/doctors-medical-groups-call-focus-mental-health-gender-confused-children