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Tuesday, April 23, 2024

NY Dem Wishes Death On Trump Supporters

 by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A Democrat who is running for Congressional office has received fierce backlash for wishing death on supporters of Donald Trump.

Nate McMurray, who is running to represent New York’s 26th congressional district, posted the demented comments on X shortly after the weekend vote on funding for Ukraine.

As we highlighted Sunday, after the House of passed legislation that includes a $61 Billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Democrats broke into chants of ‘Ukraine’ and waved Ukrainian flags on the House floor.

Here is what McMurray posted:

Is this really the kind of person that should be in office?

He didn’t stop there though.

Not trying to antagonize MAGA? It sure sounds like it.

McMurray added “This MAGA movement preys on folks who are often scared and not the most informed, twisting their legitimate worries into racism, xenophobia, and outright paranoia. You’ve got to call it out, loud and clear to save them from themselves—that’s my mantra. There’s a better way. I make sure they hear it.”

He then posted a cringe video further taunting Trump supporters:

His entire timeline is littered with assertions about Trump supporters being evil racist Nazis.

He clearly has a terminal case of TDS.

According to Hillary Clinton, however, Trump is the one who wants to kill his political opponents:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/new-york-democrat-wishes-death-trump-supporters

It's All About Mag 7 Earnings: Without Them S&P Profit Growth Is Negative

 After what has been a boring start to the week, where the biggest event so far was yesterday's start of corporate buyback frontrunning (as we first detailed and bottom ticked the market, which is now 100 points higher since our comment), investors are bracing for some serious fireworks after the close with Tesla, which coming into today was down a record-matching 7 consecutive days although today may finally be a green close, set to report after the close and launch the Mag 7 earnings train in motion.

And while we detailed what one can expect from Tesla earlier, here is another look at the all-important Mag 7 earnings parade, which starts today and continues tomorrow with META and Thursday with GOOGL and MSFT, amid an earnings bonanza that includes 180 companies or 40% of the S&P500 by market value.

To say that these matter a lot is an understatement: as shown in the chart below, profits for the Magnificent Seven are forecast to rise 38% in the first quarter from a year ago (only TSLA is expected to show a drop in profit), dwarfing the overall S&P 500’s puny 2.4% anticipated year-over-year earnings growth. That said, excluding Nvidia net income growth for the Mag7s falls to just 23%.

Some more detail comes from DataTrek's Nick Colas who writes that without the 5 Big Tech names, S&P 500 earnings would be down 6.0% in Q1 rather than the consensus estimate of +0.5 pct growth: "AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT and NVDA are the difference." Colas also notes that the S&P 495” are expected to turn the corner later this year, supporting current equity market valuations.

They better: while the Mag. 7 (really NVDA) are reporting blowing earnings growth, they are slowing down to +38% YoY this quarter vs. +63% in 4Q 2023, with all seven companies expected to see either decelerating EPS growth or an EPS decline YoY.

And, as noted above, the other 493's earnings are expected to further decline to -6% YoY (vs. flat in 4Q), but 1Q is expected to be the trough (consensus +8% YoY in 2Q). According to BofA's latest earnings tracker (full note available to pro subs in the usual place), 25% of stocks are also expected to see positive and accelerating EPS growth in 1Q. Bottom line: the growth differential between the Mag. 7 and the other 493 is expected to close by 4Q...

... which should lead to a rotation out of Tech and into more Value-oriented stocks.

And so, with Mag7 earnings about to start, almost all the Magnificent 7 stocks still sitting below their price levels from two weeks ago despite Monday’s rebound, BofA's derivatives team notes that further upside driven by favorable earnings results in these stocks is certainly possible. To position for this upside with asymmetry, the bank likes using options-based structures rather than buying the stocks outright.

Interestingly, the BofA derivatives desk points out that compared to historical earnings day reactions, options markets are currently pricing in a smaller earnings-driven move for the upcoming season for five out of seven of the megacap tech stocks...

...  which also motivates buying optionality to position for a rally.

While the simplest expression of this would be to buy call options on each of these stocks, BofA also likes funding the calls by selling OTM put spreads of the same tenor. Specifically, the bank is considering partially funding 50-delta calls (expiring on the Friday of the week that the stock releases earnings) with 40-delta/20-delta put spreads of the same tenor.  While this introduces some degree of downside risk, the structure remains limited risk while offering a historically attractive discount vs buying an outright 50D call for these seven stocks.

Finally going back to Tesla, Goldman cautions that while there is clearly skepticism on both TSLA and the EV market as a whole, with deliveries already announced for 1Q (stock was down 5% on this and another -14% additionally since), much of this has been priced in with short interest is at 3-year highs. Goldman thinks the key focus for investors will be

  1. Can they grow volumes in 2024? We think investors were at +10-15% y/y to start the year and are GIR is now in the 1-2% range and
  2. What are gross margins and how low do they need to go? Consensus looks to be 15.8% (ex-credits) tonight and bogey seems to be below 15% for the quarter.

Addus cut to Underweight from Equal Weight by Barclays

 Target $83

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ADUS&p=d

Vertex and TreeFrog Agreement and Collaboration on Cell Therapies for Type 1 Diabetes

 

  • Vertex obtains an exclusive license to TreeFrog's C-StemTM manufacturing technology in type 1 diabetes
  • TreeFrog and Vertex to collaborate on scale-up of fully differentiated, insulin-producing pancreatic islet cells

Sanofi Rilzabrutinib phase 3 study met primary endpoint in immune thrombocytopenia

 

  • Pivotal data from the first phase 3 study of a BTKi in immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) underscore the potential of rilzabrutinib to provide a clinically meaningful benefit to patients living with ITP
  • Regulatory submissions in the US and EU anticipated by year-end
  • Rilzabrutinib is one of 12 potential medicines and vaccines in Sanofi’s robust immunology pipeline and a testament to Sanofi’s ability to successfully accelerate and build a portfolio of next-generation transformative treatments for immune diseases
  • In addition to ITP, rilzabrutinib is being studied across a variety of immune-mediated diseases including asthma, chronic spontaneous urticaria, prurigo nodularis, IgG4-related disease and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia

Novartis Q1 Profit Tops Market, Lifts FY24 View

 Novartis AG's shares were gaining more than 4 percent in Switzerland and more than 5 percent in pre-market activity on the NYSE after the Swiss drug major reported Tuesday higher first-quarter profit, above market estimates, with strong sales growth. The company also raised its fiscal 2024 outlook for growth in sales and core operating income.

Further, Novartis said it plans to propose Giovanni Caforio as Chair of the Board of Directors at the AGM in 2025. The 12-year term of Joerg Reinhardt as Chair of the Board of Directors ends as scheduled in 2025, when he will retire and not be available for re-election at the Annual General Meeting.

Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis, said, "Novartis continued our strong momentum with both sales growth and core margin expansion in Q1. Our performance was broad-based, across all key growth brands and geographies, allowing us to raise guidance for the full year 2024. We continued to advance our pipeline in Q1, with submission-enabling data for Scemblix first-line, Pluvicto pre-taxane and remibrutinib in CSU. The momentum in our business and pipeline gives us continued confidence in our mid- and long-term growth outlook."

For fiscal 2024, the company now expects net sales to grow high-single to low double-digit, compared to previously expected mid-single-digit growth. Core operating income is now projected to grow low double-digit to mid-teens from earlier estimate of high single-digit growth.

In its first quarter, net income was $2.69 billion, higher than last year's $2.29 billion. Basic earnings per share were $1.31, up from $1.09 in the prior year. The prior year's net income from continuing operations was $2.15 billion or $1.02 per share.

Core net income was $3.68 billion or $1.80 per share, compared to last year's $3.61 billion or $1.71 per share. The prior year's core net income from continuing operations was $3.23 billion or $1.54 per share.

https://www.rttnews.com/3440635/novartis-q1-profit-tops-market-lifts-fy24-view-proposes-new-chair-stock-up.aspx

Monday, April 22, 2024

Supreme Court Denies Bid To Expand No-Excuse Mail-In Ballots In Texas

 by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to hear a legal challenge to a Texas law that requires voters under the age of 65 to provide justification to vote by mail, meaning that the Democrat-aligned attempt to sharply expand “no-excuse” mail-in ballots in the Lone Star state has failed, with implications for other states.

According to an April 22 order list, the high court denied petition for a writ of cetriorari in a case that stems from a federal lawsuit filed in 2020 on behalf of the Texas Democratic Party and several voters who requested that Texas lift its age-based limitations on no-excuse mail-in voting.

Texas law only allows individuals to vote by mail without a qualifying excuse, like sickness, if they are 65 years or older. In their original complaint, which made its way through a number of lower courts before ending up before the Supreme Court, the petitioners alleged that the Texas voting law violates the 26th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits denying the right to vote due to age.

The Supreme Court’s refusal to hear the appeal means that the Texas law stays in place, delivering a win to election integrity advocates who argue that no-excuse mail-in voting is prone to fraud and makes elections less secure.

At the same time, the high court’s decision to deny certiorari is a setback for groups who see laws like Texas’s age-based limits on no-excuse mail-in ballots as “voter suppression” or an unfair attempt to impose barriers to voting for certain groups, in this case younger voters.

The high court’s decision not to hear the appeal has broader implications, however, since six other states–Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee–have similar laws on the books that let older voters to request absentee ballot without having to provide any justification.

Public opinion in Texas over the issue of no-excuse mail-in voting is split, according to some polls.

More Details

In their initial petition filed in 2020 on behalf of the Texas Democratic Party and a group of voters amids the COVID-19 pandemic, the plaintiffs requested that Texas lift its age-based restrictions to no-excuse mail-in voting, citing public health risks related to the outbreak.

A district court judge sided with the plaintiffs in May 2020, temporarily blocking the Texas law.

Led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Texas officials then filed an appeal with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which paused the district court’s ruling while the appeal played out.

The plaintiffs then asked the U.S. Supreme Court to reimpose the district court’s decision to freeze enforcement of the age-based limits to no-excuse mail-in voting, or to take the case up for review, but the high court rejected both requests.

Ultimately, the 5th Circuit voided the lower court’s May 2020 order in full. This led the plaintiffs to file an amended complaint in the district court, this time asserting other claims, including ones of racial discrimination under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and arguing that the age limitations on mail-in ballots violated the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th and 26th Amendments.

In a July 2022 order, the district court judge dismissed all of the plaintiffs’ claims, leading to another appeal before the 5th Circuit, which ultimately affirmed the district court’s decision to dismiss.

The plaintiffs filed a petition for a writ of certiorari in the U.S. Supreme Court in December 2023, asking the high court to declare Texas’s age-based voting law unconstitutional.

The court declined to review the plaintiffs’ appeal, leaving Texas’s age restrictions in place and denying a bid to expand no-excuse mail-in voting in the Lone Star state.

The Epoch Times has reached out to counsel for both petitioners and respondents with a request for comment on the high court’s decision.

Election Integrity or Voter Suppression?

The Supreme Court ruling comes amid a broader fight between those who see election integrity efforts as “voter suppression” and those who believe that the security of U.S. elections is too lax and should be tightened.

According to a running tally by the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, expansive voting laws far outpaced restrictive ones in 2023.

At least 53 expansive voting laws were introduced last year in at least 23 states, compared to 17 restrictive laws being passed in 14 states, suggesting that the election integrity movement is falling behind.

Amid concerns over voter fraud, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently suggested that to win the presidential election in November, Republicans need to outvote Democrats by a significant margin.

Everybody who wants an honest election should know that in the long run, we need the French model: Everybody votes on the same day, everybody has a photo ID, everybody’s accounted as a person,” Mr. Gingrich said in a February interview on Fox News.

“But until we get to that, if Republicans want to win this year, under the rules that exist this year, they need to outvote the Democrats by about 5 percent, which is a margin big enough that it can’t be stolen,” he said.

Elsewhere, an election integrity monitor laid out over a dozen “critical” reforms that it believes are necessary in order to secure voter integrity in the 2024 election, including outlawing ranked choice voting and non-citizen voting, consolidating election dates, requiring voter ID, and safeguarding vulnerable mail ballots.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supreme-court-denies-bid-expand-no-excuse-mail-ballots-texas