The fragile cease-fire that stopped 15 months of war in the Gaza Strip looks increasingly likely to end at noon on Saturday after just 27 days.
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said intense fighting would resume in the war-torn enclave unless Hamas releases all hostages in Gaza by that deadline.
Currently, 31 people are being held in the Palestinian enclave, along with the bodies of 36 others.
The ultimatum comes after the Iran-backed terror group’s decision to withhold the release of the next three hostages scheduled for Saturday after accusing Israel of violating the terms of the cease-fire agreement.
With Israel and Hamas both preparing their forces to resume war, and mediators scrambling to broker peace, the fate of the hostages and civilians caught in the middle remains unclear.
However, a return to war may be just what Hamas and its backers in Tehran want, experts say.
That’s despite Hamas’ Health Ministry reporting a terrible cost to the war: Officials say more than 48,000 people have been killed, though that figure doesn’t distinguish between terrorists and civilians.
What’s more, Netanyahu’s government and his allies in Washington have become increasingly convinced that the cease-fire is no longer tenable, many observers believe.
Hamas has leverage and time to rebuild
Following the start of the cease-fire deal on Jan. 19, Hamas shocked the world by orchestrating large parades during the weekend hostage exchanges, boasting its ability to rebuild its forces despite Israel’s claim that it killed more than 17,000 fighters.
According to some intel reports, the terror group has used the destruction and deaths in Gaza to recruit and replenish its forces.
As a result, the group has little to lose if the war resumes as Hamas attempts to gain even more concessions from Israel.
Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defending Democracy, said Hamas knows the leverage it holds following the outrage from last Saturday’s hostage exchange, which saw three Israelis, who appeared to be emaciated, paraded through Gaza City.
“Hamas is capitalizing on the public outrage generated by the distressing images of emaciated hostages to amplify pressure on the Israeli government for further concessions,” Truzman said in a statement.
Hamas’ top demand, which has been repeatedly rejected, is to remain in power in Gaza. The current cease-fire agreement did not determine who will govern the enclave after the war ends.
Israel and the US insist that the terror group cannot be in charge.
War in the Middle East favors Iran
Prior to the Oct. 7 terrorist attack and the ensuing war in Gaza, the Middle East was inching closer to normalizing Israeli-Arab relations, a goal that would have isolated Iran and its terror proxies.
The nail in the coffin would have been an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main rival and a powerhouse in the region. But the Saudis have backed away from the table following outrage over Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the FDD, said this was likely Iran’s goal in supporting Hamas, with a return to war being all the better for Tehran.
“Iran perhaps wants to see the war restarted, to make Arab-Israeli relations more tense again, and the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalization more challenging again,” he told The Post.
“I think we shouldn’t discount the possibility that this is an Iranian driven process,” Goldberg added.
Netanyahu wants to wipe out Hamas
Netanyahu has reiterated that he has two goals for the war: to free all the hostages kidnapped during the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, and to eradicate Hamas and ensure Gaza never threatens Israel again.
Israeli officials have bemoaned that the current cease-fire deal leaves Hamas’ future up in the air, with the Jewish state rejecting any proposal that leaves the terror group in charge — despite the lack of a clear alternative.
A return to war on Saturday would see Israel again fighting to eliminate Hamas and its terror infrastructure, keeping Netanyahu’s promise to members of his far-right coalition who have threatened to dissolve his government.
“From Netanyahu’s perspective, the ceasefire presented him with a dilemma: he could go into the second phase with kind of the victory [of a] permanent ceasefire in the war and get the hostages back,” said Brian Carter, the Middle East program director at the Institute for the Study of War think tank.
“But in doing so, he was risking losing his government,” Carter added. “I do think there is a real risk he would have lost, you know, individuals [in Israel’s far-right] in that process.”
The effectiveness of those efforts have yet to be seen as the terror group has managed to survive and rebuild itself after 15-months of war, at the expense of nearly 70% of Gaza’s buildings and more than 47,000 deaths.
America seeks permanent peace in the region
Despite President Trump’s claim that his administration would end the war shortly after his return to the White House, a prolonged war in Gaza could benefit his administration’s goal of peace in the region.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he’s worried Hamas is using the cease-fire to rebuild, echoing Netanyahu.
“Israel can’t allow that to happen.,” he said during an interview with NewsNation Wednesday. “You can’t allow Hamas to use the ceasefire to rebuild itself and recover strength.”
The existence of Hamas also threatens Trump’s proposal to clear out Gaza for a US takeover, with any evacuation likely to meet armed resistance.
Trump has ultimately let the decision of war fall on Israel, saying America would back its ally and “let hell break loose.”
A complicated war on the horizon
As both sides prepare for war, they will face renewed difficulties and complications brought about by the cease-fire agreement.
The lull in fighting has allowed thousands of the 2.3 million Palestinians displaced by war to return to their destroyed neighborhoods, including in northern Gaza, where Hamas has rebuilt its forces.
With many civilians now unwilling to ever evacuate again after 15 months on the run, a restart to the fighting would put their lives at risk and reignite global outcry over the casualties.
The fighting would also cause the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza to drop again, which would worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Palestinians have little recourse to escape the enclave, as its borders with Israel and Egypt remain closed, as they have been since the war began.
The restart of the war has also thrown the families of the hostages into further despair as their loved ones would remain in captivity for the duration of the fighting or until the next cease-fire deal.
There are currently 31 living hostages in Gaza, along with bodies of 36 others who were either killed on Oct. 7 or died while in captivity.
Loved ones have stressed that time is running out following the release of the latest hostages, while others have called on the US and Israel to not let Hamas get their way.
