Kalshi, the next-generation financial exchange, today announced the launch of its Midterms Hub – the first-ever election hub powered by the wisdom of the crowds. Kalshi's markets trade 24/7, so odds update in real time as news breaks, debates unfold, polls drop, and results come in. The Midterms Hub brings unprecedented transparency, since every price is a live snapshot of what people are willing to put real money behind at that exact moment. It's designed as the one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting - serving the public, campaigns, journalists, policymakers, and researchers who want an always-on, real-time picture of where a race stands.
Kalshi is marking the launch with an event in Washington, DC, featuring a panel of political strategists and a live demonstration of the Hub. The panelists include Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi; Kristen Soltis Anderson, Republican pollster and Founding Partner of Echelon Insights; and Rob Flaherty, former Assistant to the President and White House Director of Digital Strategy under President Biden, in a conversation moderated by Stephanie Cutter, Managing Partner of Precision Strategies.
"Prediction markets don't care about spin or partisanship. They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric," said Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi. "That kind of clarity is rare right now and that's what people are getting with the Midterms Hub."
Landing page for Senate forecast. Republicans have a 56% chance to keep control of the Senate. There are 49 seats that the Democrats are favored to control (34 seats not up for re-election, 10 “Solid D” races, 2 “Likely D” races, and 2 “Lean D” races). There are 48 seats that Republicans are favored to control (31 seats not up for re-election, 11 “Solid R” races, 4 “Likely R” races, and 2 “Lean R” races. There are 3 toss-ups.
House forecast on April 11, 2026, when Democrats had their highest likelihood to win so far with an 86% chance. Today, Democrats have an 83% chance. The timeline slider allows users to see how the forecast have evolved over time. (Note: All House districts are based on the current districts as of July 21, even when the timeline slider is moved before redistricting occurred)
The Wisdom of the Crowds, Without the Bias
As prediction markets go mainstream, millions of Americans are turning to Kalshi ahead of the midterms, not just to trade, but to see what the crowd forecasts. Roughly 75% of visitors check odds; 25% trade. Kalshi has become a leading indicator of where elections are headed. Unlike polls and pundit commentary, the Midterms Hub cuts through the noise and gives people an unfiltered, live view of where a race stands.
The odds on Kalshi have no partisan lean; they reflect what people risk real money on, not who they're rooting for. By trading "what people want" for "where people put their money," and filtering out social noise and pundit bias, Kalshi offers a clarity that polarized discourse can't match. Two people who agree on nothing else can look at the same price and see the same number — a rare snapshot of shared reality in a fractured landscape.
House, Senate, and Governor races are categorized in columns based on their market prices from Solid R/D (90%+) to Toss-ups (<60%). Users can also filter races based on projected flips, trading volume, competitiveness, and more. CA-22 is a projected flip, with Randy Villegas (D) having an 82% chance to defeat incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R).
When users click on Georgia from the Senate map, they are brought to the market page, where they can view the market odds over time and other key data points (provided by VoteHub) including a polling average, FEC candidate fundraising data, and past Presidential results for the state / district.
Assessing How Headlines Move the Markets, in Real Time
For decades, polling was the gold standard for gauging a race. But a poll is a static snapshot, while a market is a living forecast of the future — which is why prediction markets have increasingly become a reference point after debates, breaking news, and political events. Prediction markets quantify the impact of the biggest moments of an election.
For campaigns, the Midterms Hub provides an always-on read of public perception. Candidates can see exactly what is and isn’t moving the needle in their race, instead of waiting days for polling to catch up. That immediacy separates what's actually shifting perception from what's just dominating social feeds, and lets campaigns benchmark their trajectory.
Probabilities That Are Well-Calibrated
Because it’s powered by the wisdom of the crowds, Kalshi’s markets are well calibrated. Across U.S. elections since 2024, when Kalshi's markets favored a candidate to win, that candidate went on to win roughly 9 times out of 10, even three months out from the election.
The pattern holds at a more granular level too: when a Kalshi market prices something at 70%, it happens about 70% of the time.
Kalshi calibration (Orange dotted line represents “perfect”)
The Washington Post recently tested this directly, analyzing hundreds of 2026 primary races on Kalshi. The finding: candidates priced at 70–80% odds won 75% of the time — reinforcing what Kalshi has demonstrated since its 2024 election markets: its prices aren't just directionally right, they're statistically calibrated. That's the distinction between a real signal and a lucky guess.
The Midterms Hub also builds on Kalshi's May release of KPOW, the American Power Index – the S&P 500 for U.S. politics. It combines who currently holds power (seats in Congress, the Presidency) with what prediction markets expect to happen next, blending them into one number on a scale from +50D (full Democratic control) to +50R (full Republican control).
The Midterms Hub will include:
Election Markets: Live trading markets for Senate, House, Governor, and other 2026 Midterm races, which take into account real-time information and developments and provide an unbiased consensus on the forecasted outcomes.
Polling Averages: Aggregated polling averages from VoteHub across all races; when viewed next to market odds, these averages reveal where conventional wisdom and real-money conviction align, and where they diverge.
Fundraising Data: The latest FEC fundraising reports for candidates, which provide information on which candidates have financial momentum, and the percentage of total donors that are "small donors," as defined by being under $200. The ratio of small dollar donors helps signal how much grassroots versus big money support a candidate is getting.
Historical Results: The Presidential winner and margin of the state (for Senate and Governor races) or Congressional district (for House races) for the 2024 and 2020 elections. This gives users a general sense if the market is forecasting the Republican or Democrat to overperform or underperform the state or districts' historical results
Campaign News & Analysis: Curated news and analysis from leading political outlets, aggregated in one place, so users never miss a development that could move a market.
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