Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) Misses Q1

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RYTM) reported Q1 EPS of ($0.60), $0.15 worse than the analyst estimate of ($0.45).

“Our achievements year-to-date reflect our dual commitment to addressing the unmet medical needs of people living with rare genetic disorders of obesity and raising awareness and understanding of these conditions,” said Keith Gottesdiener, M.D., Chief Executive Officer of Rhythm. “In addition to advancing our ongoing clinical trials of setmelanotide across six melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) pathway deficiencies, we expanded our pipeline with the in-licensing of RM-853, a preclinical ghrelin o-acyltransferase (GOAT) inhibitor for the treatment of PWS that may have benefit both as a single agent or in combination with setmelanotide. We are on track to complete enrollment in our Phase 3 trial in POMC deficiency obesity by the end of the second quarter, and are particularly encouraged by the rate of enrollment in our Phase 3 trial in leptin receptor (LEPR) deficiency obesity, which we initiated earlier this year.

Dr. Gottesdiener continued, “We are also pleased that the FDA agreed that BBS and Alström Syndrome are included under our existing BTD for setmelanotide, underscoring the need for medicines that effectively address the excess hunger and weight gain associated with rare genetic disorders of obesity. We look forward to continuing our work with physicians and the broader community to improve the diagnosis of, and ultimately treat, people living with these conditions.”

https://bit.ly/2rHd2Gu

Tandem Diabetes Care upped to buy by Piper

Piper Jaffray upgraded Tandem Diabetes Care (NASDAQ: TNDM) from Neutral to Overweight with a price target of $13.00 (from $8.00).

https://bit.ly/2wKuxvA

Overcoming FOMO

Cognitive Behavioral Techniques for Changing Your Trading Psychology – Part Two: Overcoming FOMO

In the first post of this three part series, we looked at specific techniques traders can employ to overcome procrastination.  These methods, backed by significant research, can very much help traders approach their work in a more decisive, positive mind frame.

One of the most commonly recognized trading psychology challenges, especially for developing traders, is a fear of missing out on possible opportunity.  That FOMO leads to overtrading, as the fear of missing leads to the taking of marginal trades.  In the work I’m doing with Mike Bellafiore at SMB, combining mentoring and psychological coaching, we have the traders enter all of their trades into a platform that automatically calculates a wealth of statistics:  number of long and short trades taken; number of winning and losing trades; average sizes of winning and losing trades; winning percentage and P/L as a function of time of day; as a function of relative volume; etc.  A common pattern is that win percentage goes down when the number of trades placed increases.  This is often because the additional trades are made from a FOMO mindset.

In the previous post, we looked at Dr. Seth Gillihan’s recent self-help book on cognitive behavioral techniques and how those can help with patterns of thought and behavior.  The FOMO mindset is grounded in that F word:  fear.  Techniques that help people with fear and anxiety can be tremendously helpful in overcoming the overtrading that arises from concern over missing trade opportunities.  Here are three especially useful techniques traders can employ on their own:

1)  Mindfulness – Dr. Gillihan points out that our breathing tends to mirror our anxiety when we’re getting worked up.  By becoming aware of our breathing, slowing it down, and deepening it, we can place ourselves in a much more calm and focused mindset.  He recommends doing an exercise in which we a) breathe in gently for a count of two; b) breathe out slowly for a count of five; c) pause after exhaling for a count of three; and d) repeat this process for 5-10 minutes.  Notice how this creates a rhythm for your mind and body that counteracts the chaos of anxiety.  What I have found is that if you practice such an exercise daily, you can become proficient in the method and then can just take a few even breaths during trading to re-center yourself.  The focus on breathing keeps you grounded in the present and builds your self-awareness, so that you’re less likely to act on impulse.

2)  Reassess the Severity of the Threat – Many times, we get worked up about something that we tell ourselves is a threat, but that actually can do us little harm.  One way of reassessing that I have found to be very helpful is actively telling myself that *of course* I’m going to miss opportunity.  I miss opportunity in every market I don’t trade and in every time period (such as overnight) that I don’t trade.  No matter how many opportunities I miss, ones always end up appearing later in the day or the next day.  The goal is not to trade every possible opportunity, but to identify the best opportunities and trade those as well as possible.  By reframing the opportunity set and taking the threat out of missing something, I can eliminate FOMO as a motivation.

3)  Directing Attention Outward – Dr. Gillihan observes that, when we become fearful, we tend to dwell on worries.  By directing our attention outward, we can break the vicious cycle of worrying, getting anxious, leading to further worrying.  In trading, the outward focus can be a doubling down on one’s trading process and rules.  When we have our trading laid out in “playbook” form, with explicit rules, we can ground our decision making in what we do best.  This helps us reframe the fear of missing a move into a fear of trading poorly.  Notice how this approach helps to transform fear into actual opportunity.  Very often, the outward focus leads us to hold off on placing the FOMO trade, helping us find better opportunities to enter and exit.

My experience in trading is that, if I’m feeling FOMO, the odds are good that others are experiencing it as well.  The trade that seems obvious is often not the high percentage trade.  Using FOMO as information that actually makes the trade *less* attractive is a great example of how we can use emotional awareness as a tool for superior decision-making.

https://bit.ly/2rGqgnX

Allergan aesthetics chief David Moatazedi becomes CEO of Evolus

Allergan aesthetics chief David Moatazedi is leaving to take the helm of Evolus, a much smaller biotech developing a rival to Botox. Evolus’ new drug DWP-450 (PrabotulinumtoxinA) is under review. Moatazedi noted: “The team at Evolus has done a fantastic job in bringing forward what I believe will be the most exciting new product in aesthetics. I look forward to working with this talented group of professionals and completing the build out of a best in class leadership team.”

https://bit.ly/2wEUdtv

Lilly to buy cancer drug developer AurKa Pharma

Drugmaker Eli Lilly and Co said on Monday it would buy AurKa Pharma Inc to get access to the privately-held company’s experimental cancer treatment for solid tumors.

AurKa Pharma shareholders will get an upfront payment of $110 million and will be eligible to receive up to $465 million in regulatory and sales milestones, Eli Lilly said in a statement.

https://reut.rs/2KkWHip

Baxter pullback would warrant a potential upgrade: Argus

Argus analyst John Eade kept his Hold rating on Baxter after the company’s Q1 earnings beat and raised FY18 outlook, saying he would consider an upgrade if the stock price pulled back to the mid-$60’s range. The analyst notes that Baxter has “substantially improved profitability in recent quarters” even as it continues to rely on M&A as a source of revenue and margin growth. Eade adds that while the company’s Renal and Hospital Products segments are mature businesses, the company’s balance sheet is clean, and the management’s recent dividend raise is indicative of its confidence in Baxter’s prospects.

https://bit.ly/2rG4CQv

Nektar pullbacks ‘could get compelling’: Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay said ASCO abstracts featuring data from Nektar’s ongoing PIVOT-02 study have potentially reset expectations, but he also noted that the actual podium presentation is likely to include an updated cut of data from up to late May. The analyst, who thinks pullbacks in Nektar Therapeutics shares “could get compelling,” maintains a Buy rating and $125 price target on the stock

https://bit.ly/2GeWOcZ