More worries for China, sales at big e-commerce festival drop for first time

 Sales fell for the first time ever at China's blowout mid-year e-commerce sales festival as consumers remain cautious about spending as the economy sputters, according to third-party data estimates released on Wednesday.

Combined gross merchandise volume (GMV), a widely used proxy for e-commerce sales, reached 742.8 billion yuan ($102.36 billion) across China's major online platforms during the so called "618" shopping event, 7% lower than the same period last year, digital retail data provider Syntun said.

Sales in 618 had grown even during the pandemic, according to Syntun, and peaked in 2023 at nearly 800 billion yuan.

This year the shopping festival failed to stir up much excitement among shoppers, industry experts said, even as major platforms extended offers to a weeks-long period to woo consumers who have been tightening their belts amid a gloomy economic outlook.

The festival, named after the June 18 founding date of e-commerce provider JD.com but embraced by all platforms, is China's second-biggest annual sales event after Singles Day in November and is seen as a key test of household consumption.

The world's second-biggest economy is being weighed down by a prolonged property crisis and high unemployment, weighing heavily on consumer confidence.

"With discounts available year-round, buzz around 618 has diminished," said Jacob Cooke, CEO of e-commerce consultancy WPIC Marketing + Technologies.

JD.com said on Wednesday its turnover and order volumes reached a new high over the festival period, which ran from the end of May to June 18 this year. It did not elaborate on the exact growth rate of its orders or sales during the festival, which was first launched in 2010 as just a one-day sale.

Major players such as JD.com and Alibaba's Tmall and Taobao platforms this year cancelled a traditional pre-sale period in which shoppers could place deposits on products and complete their purchases later. Instead, the sales period itself was extended.

Sluggish demand also is pushing retailers to constantly focus on low prices and lower profit margins, analysts said, adding to disinflationary pressures.

An analysis by consultancy Re-Hub of luxury brands' discounting strategies during this year's 618 festival found nearly half of the brands they tracked either maintained or reduced their average discounts from the previous year, while 20% increased their average discounts.

HOME APPLIANCES AND BEAUTY PRODUCTS

Alibaba had previously flagged in a mid-618 season update that sectors such as home appliances were outperforming on its platforms, led by brands such as Haier and Xiaomi.

The e-commerce giant said on Wednesday that sales of international brands including Nike, L'Oreal, Lancome and Adidas surpassed 1 billion yuan ($137.82 million) on Tmall during the period.

Apple offered discounts of up to 2,300 yuan ($318) on select iPhone models via its Tmall flagship store in a bid to keep pace with domestic competitor Huawei.

Within the first hours of sales, Alibaba said Apple had sold more than 200 million yuan of merchandise.

Rival PDD Holdings' Pinduoduo, which does not traditionally disclose 618 sales data, did not respond immediately to a request for information.

Given low prices are now such a common feature of China's consumer landscape, it is becoming more difficult for e-commerce platforms to keep customers engaged - even with traditionally successful sales festivals.

"I haven't been paying constant attention to 618, to be honest, because there are just so many (shopping festivals)," said Anita Meng, a university student from Hangzhou.

"Even if these festivals are still going strong, my wallet is already exhausted," she said, adding she only made one purchase this 618 - a gaming chair for her older brother that was reduced from more than 1,200 yuan to 1,000 yuan.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/extended-offers-dampen-excitement-chinas-051939280.html

'No hallucination: AI candidate on the ballot for UK election'

 When voters go to the polls in one English town next month they will get the chance to elect what is being billed as the world's first AI lawmaker.

Businessman Steve Endacott is among hundreds of candidates standing to become a member of parliament at Britain's July 4 national election - except unlike the others, the face on his campaign leaflet is not the 59-year-old, but an AI generated avatar.

"We're launching a party, we're going to be recruiting more AI candidates across the country after this election, and we see this as the launch, building block for something big and something democratic," he told Reuters.

Endacott, whose Neural Voice company powers his AI alter ego, said his frustration with "standard politics" made him decide to run as an independent for the Brighton Pavilion constituency in the southern seaside town.

"AI Steve" - the name that will appear on ballot papers - engages real-time with locals on topics ranging from LGBTQ rights and housing to bin collection and immigration. It then puts forward policy ideas before asking for their suggestions.

"We're using AI in so many (areas), at work, social interactions, why don't we put it in politics?" said charity worker Eona Johnston, 23, after meeting "AI Steve" near Brighton’s famous pier. "It might change the way we live."

When asked about AI Steve, the Electoral Commission, the elections watchdog, said if he wins, Endacott would be the member of parliament (MP), not any AI version of him.

Most locals appeared reluctant to vote for an AI candidate just yet.

Jim Cheek, a 37-year old accountant from Brighton, pointed out that an MP has to speak up for constituents in parliament.

"AI and politicians have the one thing in common," another local resident, Andy Clawson, 42, said. "They can’t be trusted."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-hallucination-ai-candidate-ballot-060343684.html

After West Rejected Putin's Overture, Document Of Ukraine's Surrender To Be Next Proposal: Kremlin

 The Kremlin has continued blasting the international Ukraine peace summit which was held in Burgenstock, Switzerland over the weekend, with spokeswoman Maria Zakharova highlighting that the Alpine "get-together" produced zero results.

Though there were almost 100 countries represented, Zakharova said that this attempt to involve as many countries of the Global South as possible "has failed". She further described that the whole effort at putting on a "universal event" while at the same time talking more weapons deliveries to Kiev behind the scenes was all about trying to "camouflage" the West's continued aggressive intentions.

Decrying the Zelensky peace formula, she added that "Its authors in the United States and on Bankovaya Street are trying to portray it as the only foundation for a peace settlement." 

Notably Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico and the UAE did not sign the summit's final communique. Additionally, Brazil was present as an "observer" but also did not sign.

She went on to state...

They are not interested in peace in Ukraine, they need further confrontation, escalation and expanded hostilities to implement their unrealizable dream of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia.

Just the day prior to the start of Saturday's two-day Swiss summit, President Putin had listed key conditions for peaceful settlement, centered on Ukrainian troops leaving the four annexed eastern territories, as well as Kiev giving up all aspirations to join NATO.

Leaders gathered in Switzerland had rejected the overture as but more "propaganda" - and said it would be tantamount to Ukraine's total capitulation.

The Kremlin now says that the next formal proposal on the horizon will be a document of the Ukrainian government's surrender. This was stated by Russia’s chief delegate to the Vienna talks on military security and arms control, Konstantin Gavrilov, in a Rossiya-24 television interview.

"There are points of no return. The next thing that Russia will have to offer will be the document about [the Kiev government’s] surrender," he said. He called last week's proposals by Putin "realistic" and said they could end the war if they were embraced.

The joint communique issued by the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland is the most bland and unremarkable document that probably could've been produced. The main points are that nuclear facilities must be safeguarded, global food security must be uninterrupted, and Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/7c0Swyy7kn

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 18, 2024

"Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions," Putin had said in a televised address. "As soon as Kyiv says it is ready to do this and begins really withdrawing troops and officially renounces plans to join NATO, we will immediately — literally that very minute — cease-fire and begin talks," he asserted.

But Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni on Saturday echoed the consensus of leaders gathered with Zelensky in Burgenstock, on Saturday saying this "seems to me more like a propaganda move than a real one."

"If President Putin’s proposal is: We are willing to have a peace negotiation if Ukraine recognizes the invasion of Ukraine and gives up the occupied parts... doesn’t seem particularly effective to me as a proposal," Meloni said.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/after-west-rejected-putins-overture-document-ukraines-surrender-be-next-proposal

Texas Sees 74% Drop In Illegal Border Crossings Since Operation Lone Star, Gov. Office Says

  by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times,

Texas officials have reported a significant drop in illegal border crossings since Gov. Gregg Abbott implemented his state-level border security mission.

According to a statement released by Mr. Abbott’s office on June 14, the initiative has resulted in a 74 percent decrease in immigrants crossing into the state illegally in Texas since Operation Lone Star was launched in March 2021.

As part of the initiative, the Republican governor has deployed floating border barriers, installed wire fencing, and used the Texas National Guard to stem the flow of illegal immigrants.

Since the program was launched, the multi-agency effort has led to nearly 514,000 illegal immigrant apprehensions and more than 44,000 criminal arrests, with more than 38,600 felony charges, the statement said.

His office also emphasizes that law enforcement officials have seized over 489 million lethal doses of the synthetic opioid fentanyl during this period, noting the quantity seized is enough to “kill every man, woman, and child in the United States and Mexico combined.”

Mr. Abbott argued that were it not for the state’s border security program, the apprehended or arrested individuals—along with “every ounce of drugs” seized—could have scattered into communities across the Lone Star State and other U.S. states.

The Republican governor, meanwhile, criticized the Biden administration for its poor handling of the border situation, saying the new border executive order President Joe Biden signed earlier this month “will do little to stem the flow of illegal immigration into the country.”

“As long as the Biden Administration refuses to provide any type of enforcement, any type of blockage, of people crossing illegally, all that this new Biden policy is going to do is to actually attract and invite even more people to cross the border illegally,” he said in the statement, citing his appearance on Fox News.

Mr. Abbott referred to President Biden’s new executive order suspending asylum requests at certain times to deter illegal border crossings.

According to a White House fact sheet published on June 4, the proclamation bars illegal immigrants from receiving asylum when border officials deem illegal border crossings are at “high levels,” which it said “is the case today.”

“This ban will remain in place until the number of people trying to enter illegally is reduced to a level that our system can effectively manage,” President Biden said at a news conference from the White House announcing the measure.

The proclamation will kick in once the average number of encounters with illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico exceeds 2,500 a day over seven days.

President Biden’s executive action comes as his administration has been dealing with a historic increase in illegal immigrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border.

According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the total number of border encounters in the first five months of fiscal year 2024 was more than 1.15 million, up by almost 12 percent from the 1.03 million in the same period in fiscal 2023.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/texas-sees-74-drop-illegal-border-crossings-operation-lone-star-gov-office-says

Expensive Incompetence: US Giving Up On $230 Million Gaza Air Pier

A vivid metaphor for American global geopolitical incompetence is about to float off into the sunset, as the White House is poised to give up on the $230 million Gaza aid pier it built to alleviate an Israel-imposed humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Disassembly could begin in July, officials told New York Times.

The aid pier under construction earlier this year (CENTCOM photo)

First announced as a White House aim in March during President Biden's State of the Union address, the pier required hundreds of millions of dollars and the work of some 1,000 service members to plan, assemble and operate. Now, the surrender on the pier idea comes after it was operational for just 10 days -- at $23 million each. 

The pier will go down as one of history's costliest publicity stunts. The impetus for the pier was mounting political pressure on Biden -- particularly from his own party -- as Israel's response to the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion killed tens of thousands, displaced more than a million, and caused a territory-wide food and medical-supply crisis.

Biden's pier announcement came a week after the Michigan primary, in which 13% of Democrats -- more than 100,000 people -- voted "uncommitted" as a means of condemning Biden's performance on Gaza, among other issues. 

Any second lieutenant could have foreseen this train wreck.

Absolute humiliation for our troops all because Biden wanted a talking point in his re election campaign.

— 🐺 (@LeighWolf) June 14, 2024

The pier fiasco is the latest demonstration of the US government's pathetic deference to Israel: Unable to persuade its perennial, multi-billion-dollar beneficiary to allow sufficient aid to pass through land crossings, the US government felt compelled to spend $230 million trying to bypass the blockade -- a blockade the same US government continued to facilitate via military and financial aid.   

Pier was a failure. Shoulda pressed more to open already established border crossings instead of setting $300m+ on fire.

— RAJ 4 MVP 🏆 (@donaldracuna13) June 14, 2024

The pier opened for business on May 18, and got off to an inauspicious start: After desperate Palestinians mobbed and ransacked the first aid trucks before they could reach a distribution warehouse managed by the World Food Programme, the pier operation was paused for two days. 

Then, just a week after it opened, rough seas and high winds broke up the pier, with four associated vessels running aground. That prompted another halt in operations, as components were taken away to be repaired at an Israeli port. The pier was reassembled, but, on Friday, US Central Command announced it would be towed to Israel as high seas were again moving in. 

BREAKING: Waves swept away a section of the American floating pier installed to carry aid to Gaza, Israeli media reported Saturday.

I would say this sums up Biden's efforts. Can't even build a structurally sound pier. pic.twitter.com/Blu78HmwXX

— 🇺🇸 Larry 🇺🇸 (@InterStarMedia) May 25, 2024

The pier's cost isn't measured only in money: In May, a US service member was critically injured on the pier. After first being medevacked to an Israeli hospital, he was later flown to Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, Texas, still in critical condition. 

On Sunday, Israel announced a daytime-only "tactical pause" along a road that supplies the southern Gaza city of Rafah, with a goal of allowing humanitarian aid to flow. The pause is to last until further notice, but Israel made no adjustments to other potential aid entry points in the 25-mile long strip.

Look for Donald Trump to throw some pier-fiasco jabs at Biden when the two square off in their first 2024 debate next Thursday at 9pm ET.  

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/expensive-incompetence-us-giving-230-million-gaza-air-pier

'CBO raises this year's federal budget deficit projection by $400 b'

 The Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that it projects this year’s federal budget deficit to be $400 billion higher, a 27% increase compared to its original estimate released in February.

The major drivers of the change include: higher costs from the supplemental spending package signed in April that provides military aid to Ukraine and Israel; higher than estimated costs of reducing student loan borrower balances; increased Medicaid spending; and higher spending on FDIC insurance after the agency has not yet recovered payments it made after the banking crises of 2023and 2024.

The report also projects that the nation’s publicly held debt is set to increase from 99% of gross domestic product at the end of 2024 to 122% of GDP — the highest level ever recorded — by the end of 2034. “Then it continues to rise,” the report states.

Deficits are a problem for lawmakers in the coming years because of the burden of servicing the total debt load, an aging population that pushes up the total cost of Social Security and Medicare and rising health care expenses.

The report cuts into President Joe Biden’s claim that he has lowered deficits, as borrowing increased in 2023 and is slated to climb again this year.

The White House budget proposal released in March claims to reduce the deficit by roughly $3 trillion over the next 10 years and would raise tax revenues by a total of $4.9 trillion in the same period.

White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre, said in a statement that the report “is further evidence of the need for Congress to pass President Biden’s Budget to reduce the deficit by $3 trillion — instead of blowing up the debt with $5 trillion of more Trump tax cuts.”

A May CBO report estimates that extending the provisions of Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would increase deficits by nearly $5 trillion into 2034.

Trump, as a candidate for president in 2024, recently told a group of CEOs that he would further cut the corporate tax rate he lowered while in office, among other things. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the 10-year cost of the legislation and executive actions former President Donald Trump signed into law was about $8.4 trillion, with interest.

In a statement, House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, responded to the increased deficit forecast by saying that “Congress must reverse the spending curse of the Biden Administration by undoing expensive and overreaching executive actions.”

Arrington added that “we must address the most significant debt drivers of our mandatory spending,” a category in the budget that includes Social Security and Medicare.

Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, said the CBO projections show that the outlook for America’s critical national debt challenge is worsening.

“The harmful effects of higher interest rates fueling higher interest costs on a huge existing debt load are continuing, and leading to additional borrowing. It’s the definition of unsustainable,” Peterson said.

“The leaders we elect this fall will face a series of highly consequential fiscal deadlines next year, including the reinstatement of the debt limit, the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts and key decisions on healthcare subsidies, discretionary spending caps and more.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/cbo-raises-2024-federal-budget-deficit-projection-400-billion-rcna157865

'When Genetics Pulls A Fast One, Gender Identification Can Become Complicated'

 Consider this a sort of Public Service Announcement about the nuances of prenatal testing (and, in an odd way, about the selection of individual pronouns).

I became interested in anomalies of the human sex chromosomes, X and Y, as a medical student, when I had a patient with a rare genetic condition that gave rise to a syndrome called “androgen insensitivity” or “testicular feminization.” It is caused by either of two types of mutations on the X chromosome. (Recall that females are generally XX, while males are XY.)

So, while normally, people with one X and one Y chromosome in every somatic cell (and who are designated “XY”) would be males, the mutations distort development. One mutation causes a deficiency of the receptor for the hormone dihydrotestosterone (DHT), which promotes male characteristics; in the other, the receptor is apparently present, but the receptor-DHT complex is inactive. Thus, in either case, the hormone cannot perform its normal actions, which would give rise to a male-appearing fetus, so the fetus is phenotypically a female.

My patient was genetically male (XY), but because of the mutation, his cells were unable to respond to DHT in utero, the result of which was the birth of a person who became a normal-appearing woman with adequate breast development, normal female external genitalia but a vagina of less than normal depth, absent uterus, sparse pubic and axillary hair, and the absence of menstrual periods.

(This situation adds a new wrinkle to current confusion about appropriate pronouns.)

Some form of testicular feminization occurs in about one out of 20,000 births and can be incomplete (giving rise to various sexual ambiguities) or complete (the genetic male appears to be a woman). Even many physicians have never heard of it, so I was surprised to see a case of it depicted several years ago on the British TV series, “Call the Midwife.” There is a description of the episode here.

Testicular feminization is the kind of abnormality that can be detected by prenatal genetic tests, which raises various medical, ethical, and moral issues -- such as whether to abort the fetus -- because there is currently no treatment for it. 

Far more common are variations in sex chromosomes where people have an extra or missing entire X or Y.  These are the most frequent chromosomal anomalies, occurring in approximately one in 400 births.  However, most people affected are unaware that they have them, because the anomalies are not life-disrupting and, unlike testicular feminization, seldom give rise to telltale characteristics, signs, or symptoms.

Thus, because of the confusion and anxiety that can ensue when a person (or parent) learns of the genetic anomaly, perhaps knowing about the diagnosis might be worse than the “disease” itself.

The first noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) appeared just over a decade ago. The first-trimester blood tests that became available in 2011 to detect Down syndrome have vastly expanded their repertoire, gradually adding more conditions, including atypical numbers of sex chromosomes, to their panel.  

In 2020, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists endorsed conducting noninvasive prenatal screening during all pregnancies.  Their website describes the categories of genetic disorders that are possible:

Aneuploidy is a condition in which there are missing or extra chromosomes. In a trisomy, there is an extra chromosome. In a monosomy, a chromosome is missing. Inherited disorders that are caused by changes in genes are called mutations. These include sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs disease, and many others.

Testicular feminization is in the category of abnormalities caused by mutations.

Although parents-to-be might think the test is intended primarily to rule out Down syndrome or more severe abnormalities, as noted above, other findings might be detected, many of them inconsequential.  Even so, the finding of sex chromosome abnormalities often precipitates a decision to terminate the pregnancy, particularly in younger couples.

In view of the complexity and importance of the information derived from prenatal testing, parents-to-be would be wise to obtain genetic counseling to provide information about how genetic abnormalities might affect them and their family, if at all. The genetic counselor or other qualified healthcare professional collects personal and family health history, which is used to estimate how likely it is that the fetus has a serious genetic condition and to recommend which genetic tests might be appropriate.

This is truly a situation in which, as the saying goes, knowledge is power. Expectant parents should obtain counseling to learn what the future may hold.

Henry I. Miller, MS, MD, is the Glenn Swogger Distinguished Fellow at the American Council on Science and Health. His research focuses on public policy toward science, technology, and medicine, encompassing a number of areas, including pharmaceutical development, genetic engineering, models for regulatory reform, precision medicine, and the emergence of new viral diseases. Dr. Miller served for fifteen years at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in a number of posts, including as the founding director of the Office of Biotechnology.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/08/19/when-genetics-pulls-fast-one-gender-identification-can-become-difficult-17572