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Wednesday, December 11, 2024

OPEC makes fifth and biggest cut to 2024 oil demand growth forecast

 OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, amid a slowness in economic growth in key markets such as China and India.

The group now expects global oil demand to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down 210,000 bpd from its previous forecast. For 2025, demand is projected to grow by 1.4 million bpd, a 90,000 bpd downward revision.

On the supply front, countries outside OPEC’s Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) are expected to ramp up production, particularly in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Norway, potentially exerting pressure on prices.

OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecasts at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025 but revised its outlook for the United States slightly higher, projecting 2.8% growth in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, supported by strong expansion in the second half of 2024.

China's growth estimates remain steady at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025, while India’s growth outlook is unchanged at 6.8% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025.

The revisions to demand forecasts come amid uneven global economic growth and debates over energy transition. With rising supply from non-OPEC producers, market dynamics may shift further, influencing oil prices in the coming years


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-cuts-2024-2025-oil-150405414.html

'Behind UnitedHealth exec's accused killer, possible history of back pain emerges'

 A potential history of back pain emerged on Tuesday as a point of interest in the UnitedHealthcare CEO murder case, based on accounts from two people who knew the suspect and details from his social media profiles.

Luigi Mangione is in custody in Pennsylvania and faces multiple charges there as well as murder charges in New York. While the gunman's motive remains unclear, police have said Brian Thompson, the head of one of the nation's largest health insurers, was deliberately targeted.

The case has drawn intense interest online, where sleuths have looked for answers as to how a 26-year-old from a prominent family who had attended an Ivy League college ended up an accused murderer.

Social media commentators said clues about back pain could explain both personal distress and difficulties obtaining insurance coverage for treatment.

Reuters could not determine whether Mangione had been diagnosed with a back condition or whether he sought, or received, treatment including surgery.

On social media, Mangione left a trail of clues, including a picture of an x-ray of a spinal surgery on his X profile and a review on Goodreads of a book called “Crooked: Outwitting the Back Pain Industry and Getting on the Road to Recovery.”

In a 14-page handwritten document that Sky News identified as having been uploaded to his Google Drive account in 2021 and which has not been independently verified by Reuters, Mangione said he had a back injury known as an L5-S1 isthmic spondylolisthesis, in which one of the bones in the spine slips forward and presses on the vertebra below it.

Dr. Wellington Hsu, professor of orthopedic surgery at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, said about 6% of the population has this condition and most people don't even know it because it typically does not cause pain.

About 20% of people with this condition have symptoms, and of those, another 20% may need surgery.

Paul Piek, a 21-year-old software testing professional from Flensburg, Germany, met Mangione in March while watching a muay thai boxing fight in Ao Nang, Thailand.

The two and another friend of Piek's met up again in Krabi, Thailand on April 8 and roadtripped through Khao Sok and Bangkok, where they shared a hotel room for four nights and visited temples.

"He told us he did (muy thai) before his injury," said Piek.

Piek said Mangione told him he was interested in hiking when they met, with no further mention of his back injury. "It didn't seem like a problem," though he did opt out of one guided hike for an easier walk, saying he was ill.

Mangione said he was “between jobs” while in Thailand," said Piek, who described Mangione as a spontaneous travel companion, who enjoyed partying.

After traveling for another month alone, Mangione indicated in June that he was returning to the U.S., Piek said. In July, Piek stopped hearing from him.


BACK SURGERY

Mangione had left his previous employer, Truecar TRUE.O, a car buying platform with offices in California, in 2023, the company said.

A colleague he worked with there told Reuters he took leave during the middle of 2023 for about two months, a move the colleague's manager told him was due to back-related issues.

He also told the manager of Surfbreak, a co-living residence in Hawaii, that he had a back problem, and in August of 2023 sent him pictures of a back surgery, according to the New York Times.

Mangione's notes mention that his condition involved a stress fracture in the pars bone that connects the vertebrae to the spinal column.

Dr. Richard Nachwalter, a Morristown, N.J. orthopedic spine surgeon, said frequently a bone connecting the vertebra cracks from sports in adolescence, fails to heal and changes the mechanics of the spine, causing the vertebrae to slip forward over time.

"As it slides forward, the disc degenerates, and either you get back pain, and if it slides and pulls on a nerve, you'll get leg pain," he said of spondylolisthesis.

Mangione's profile on X includes an x-ray of a person who has had an L5-S1 spinal operation in which two vertebra are surgically fused together. The surgery has an overall success rate of 80%, according to the National Institutes of Health.

In general, a spinal fusion surgery in a young person "should be a very predictable operation," Nachwalter said.

"You should be able to live your regular life, go back and play sports, play golf," he said.

https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/allNews/reuters/behind-unitedhealth-execs-accused-killer-a-possible-history-of-back-pain-emerges-53985470

'UnitedHealth murder suspect has angry outburst as details of his life emerge'

 Luigi Mangione, the suspect charged with murder in the shooting of a top UnitedHealth executive, briefly struggled with officers and angrily shouted while being escorted into a Pennsylvania courthouse on Tuesday, as a clearer picture of his motives began to emerge a day after his arrest ended a massive manhunt.

Mangione, 26, turned toward a group of reporters and yelled in part, "...completely out of touch and an insult to the intelligence of the American people!" before deputies pushed him away. It was not clear to what he was referring.

At the court hearing, his defense lawyer told a judge that Mangione would oppose extradition to New York, where he is charged with murder and other crimes. That decision could delay the process by weeks but is unlikely to block his eventual transfer; for now, Mangione will remain in jail in Pennsylvania, where he faces gun and forgery charges.

His attorney, Tom Dickey, said at a news conference that Mangione planned to plead not guilty to the charges.

Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealth's insurance arm, one of the largest health insurers in the U.S., was shot dead on the morning of Dec. 4 outside a hotel in Manhattan in what police said was a targeted attack, sparking a manhunt that led to Mangione's arrest.

More clues about his possible motivation were coming to light on Tuesday.

When arrested, Mangione was in possession of a handwritten manifesto that offered insight into his mindset, according to police. The New York Times reported that an internal New York City Police report analyzing the document concluded that Mangione viewed the killing as a justified response to what he believed to be corruption in the healthcare industry.

"These parasites simply had it coming," the manifesto said, according to the Times.

Mangione suffered from chronic back pain that limited his daily life, according to friends, his social media postings and other news reports. His profile on X shows a background image of an x-ray with what appears to be screws and plates inserted in a lower back.

An employee at TrueCar told Reuters that Mangione worked at the car-buying website as a data engineer from 2022 to late 2023. In mid-2023, Mangione took about two months off for what the employee's manager described as back-related issues.

The employee, who asked not to be named, described Mangione as "incredibly smart" and very friendly to his co-workers.

He said that the company offered employees health insurance through UnitedHealth as well as other choices, such as Aetna.

From January through June 2022, Mangione lived at the Surfbreak co-living community in Honolulu, where he led a book club and surfed, hiked and rock-climbed, the founder of the group, R.J. Martin, told the Hawaiian outlet Civil Beat.

Martin said Mangione had suffered back pain caused by misaligned vertebrae pinching Mangione's spinal cord, and he left for the mainland at some point for surgery.

But he went "radio silent" in June or July, Martin told Civil Beat.

Mangione never showed any indication of violence, Martin later told MSNBC.

"The Luigi that I knew is completely incompatible with an assassin," he said, describing him as funny, kind and thoughtful.

At one point, Mangione suggested Surfbreak's book club read the manifesto of Ted Kaczynski - the U.S. domestic bomber known as the Unabomber - as a joke, according to Martin.

On the book-themed social media site Goodreads, a poster with Mangione's name praised Kaczynski's book "Industrial Society and Its Future" as "prescient" about modern society, called him an "extreme political revolutionary" and suggested violence was a legitimate form of resistance in some circumstances.

GHOST GUN, BRAZEN ESCAPE

Mangione was spotted at a McDonald's on Monday by an employee who thought he looked like the gunman in surveillance images released by police.

Mangione, an Ivy League graduate who was also the valedictorian of a private all-boys school in Maryland, had a loaded ghost gun - an untraceable firearm assembled from parts - and a silencer, officials said on Monday. Both the weapon and his clothing closely resembled those used by the gunman.

He also had multiple fake identifications, including a fraudulent New Jersey ID that matched the one used by the gunman to check into a Manhattan hostel days before the shooting, according to authorities.

Mangione's family released a statement saying they knew only what had been reported in the media.

"Our family is shocked and devastated by Luigi's arrest," the family said in a statement posted to the X account of Maryland lawmaker Nino Mangione. "We offer our prayers to the family of Brian Thompson and we ask people to pray for all involved."

The gunman managed to elude capture for days after the attack last Wednesday outside the Hilton hotel in midtown Manhattan.

Thompson's murder unleashed a wave of frustration from Americans struggling to afford medical care and those who have been denied claims or care.

Thompson, a father of two, had been CEO of UnitedHealthcare since April 2021, part of a 20-year career with the company. He had been in New York to attend the company's annual investor conference.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/investigators-retrace-unitedhealth-murder-suspects-163626046.html

'Trump plans major reshaping of US policies within hours of taking office'

 President-elect Donald Trump is planning a blizzard of more than 25 executive orders and directives on his first day in office on January 20 as he seeks to dramatically reshape US government policy on issues from immigration to energy, Report informs via Reuters.

Two sources familiar with the effort said Trump has told his team he wants to make a "big splash" with the Day One orders, looking to exert his executive power with greater scale and speed than he did during his first term. The number of planned orders has not been previously reported.

The Republican issued only a handful of such orders on the first day of his 2017-2021 presidency. In contrast, Democratic President Joe Biden issued 17 executive orders on his first day in office in 2021, many of which were aimed at rolling back Trump's policies.

"The American people can bank on President Trump using his executive power on day one to deliver on the promises he made to them on the campaign trail," Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said when asked about the executive order plans.

Trump's post-inaugural orders on the first day are expected to mostly focus on rolling back what Trump views as Biden's overly permissive border policies and preventing new surges of migration along the US southern border with Mexico, two sources said.

He is expected to sign executive orders that give immigration officers more latitude to arrest people with no criminal records, send more troops to the US-Mexico border and restart construction of the border wall, three separate sources with knowledge of those draft orders said.

The orders will also include a drive to increase energy production and follow through on Trump's oft-stated campaign vow to "drill, baby, drill" and "frack, frack, frack," the sources said.

https://report.az/en/other-countries/trump-plans-major-reshaping-of-us-policies-within-hours-of-taking-office/

'2 U.S. lawmakers push for some Syria sanctions relief after Assad's fall'

Two U.S. congressmen have urged senior American officials to suspend some sanctions on Syria to ease pressure on its shattered economy after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, according to a letter dated Dec. 10 and seen by Reuters.

The move is the latest effort in the West to push for easing sanctions after rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate, swept into Damascus. A British minister said on Monday that Britain could rethink its designation of HTS as a banned organisation.

The letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was signed by Republican Representative Joe Wilson, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle, who chairs the Free Syria Caucus.

The letter acknowledges the possible extension for five more years of the Caesar sanctions, which apply across Syrian business sectors and to any national dealing with Syria or with Russian and Iranian entities in Syria.

Wilson and Boyle wrote that sanctions denied Assad the resources to sustain his military and ultimately contributed to its collapse - first in the northern city of Aleppo on Nov. 29 and in a string of losses until Damascus was seized on Dec. 8

The lawmakers wrote that while keeping sanctions on former government officials was important, they believed "that other parts of the legislation - such as sectoral sanctions and sanctions related to reconstruction - should be suspended".

The letter said the U.S. must issue waivers and general licenses to encourage economic development and foreign investment and "build good will" without impacting sanctions on designated terrorist groups.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian rebel group that spearheaded the offensive that toppled Assad and whose civilian branch has been installed as a transitional government, is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and most other countries, as well as the United Nations.

Its new government has told business leaders it will adopt a free-market model and integrate the country into the global economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

"A deliberate and phased approach is required to unwind sanctions and export controls against Syria," the letter by Wilson and Boyle said, including "to incentivize the transitional government's compliance with international norms".

A source close to HTS told Reuters on Tuesday that the group was in touch with U.S. officials on lifting parts of the Caesar Sanctions.

"All of the obstacles facing the Syrian people and their future should be removed," the source said.

Another senior European diplomat told Reuters other states were pushing for broad humanitarian exemptions, much like the months-long waivers that were installed after the devastating 2023 earthquake to allow urgent aid to come in to Syria.

The diplomat said it was "too early" to drop all sanctions altogether given HTS's prominent role in government.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-two-u-lawmakers-push-110058117.html

'The Israeli Jews who spied for Iran in biggest infiltration in decades'

  Israel's arrest of almost 30 mostly Jewish citizens who allegedly spied for Iran in nine covert cells has caused alarm in the country and points to Tehran's biggest effort in decades to infiltrate its arch foe, four Israeli security sources said.

Among the unfulfilled goals of the alleged cells was the assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist and former military officials, while one group gathered information on military bases and air defences, security service Shin Bet has said. Last week, the agency and Israel's police said a father and son team had passed on details of Israeli force movements including in the Golan Heights where they lived.

The arrests follow repeated efforts by Iranian intelligence operatives over the past two years to recruit ordinary Israelis to gather intelligence and carry out attacks in exchange for money, the four serving and former military and security officials said.

The sources asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

"There is a large phenomenon here," said Shalom Ben Hanan, a former top Shin Bet official, referring to what he called the surprising number of Jewish citizens who knowingly agreed to work for Iran against the state with intelligence gathering or planning sabotage and attacks.

Shin Bet and the police did not respond to requests for comment. Iran's foreign ministry did not respond to questions.

In a statement sent to media after the wave of arrests, Iran’s U.N. mission did not confirm or deny seeking to recruit Israelis and said that "from a logical standpoint" any such efforts by Iranian intelligence services would focus on non-Iranian and non-Muslim individuals to lessen suspicion.

At least two suspects were from Israel's ultra-Orthodox community, police and the Shin Bet have said.

Unlike Iranian espionage operations in previous decades that recruited a high-profile businessman and a former cabinet minister, the new alleged spies were largely people on the fringes of Israeli society, including recent immigrants, an army deserter and a convicted sex offender, conversations with the sources, court records and official statements show.

Much of their activity was limited to spraying anti-Netanyahu or anti-government graffiti on walls and damaging cars, Shin Bet has said.

Nonetheless, the scale of the arrests and involvement of so many Jewish Israelis, in addition to Arab citizens, has caused concern in Israel at a time it remains at war with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and that a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah remains fragile.

Shin Bet on Oct. 21 said the espionage activities were "among the most severe the state of Israel has known."

The arrests also follow a wave of attempted hits and kidnappings linked to Tehran in Europe and the United States.

The unusual decision to provide detailed public accounts of the alleged plots was a move by Israel's security services to signal both to Iran and potential saboteurs inside Israel that they would be caught, Ben Hanan said.

"You want to alert the public. And you also want to make an example of people that may also have intentions or plans to co-operate with the enemy," he said.

Israel has achieved major intelligence successes over the past few years in a shadow war with its regional foe, including allegedly killing a top nuclear scientist. With the recent arrests Israel has "so far" thwarted Tehran's efforts to respond, one active military official said.

Iran has been weakened by Israel's attacks on its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the related fall of Tehran's ally, former president Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

SOCIAL MEDIA RECRUITS

Iranian intelligence agencies often find potential recruits on social media platforms, Israeli police said in a video released in November warning of ongoing infiltration attempts.

The recruiting efforts are at times direct. One message sent to an Israeli civilian and seen by Reuters promised $15,000 in exchange for information, with an email and number to call.

Iran has also approached expatriate networks of Jews from Caucasus countries living in Canada and the United States, said one of the sources, a former senior official who worked on Israel's counter espionage efforts until 2007.

Israeli authorities have said publicly some of the Jewish suspects were originally from Caucasus countries.

Recruited individuals are first assigned innocuous-seeming tasks in return for money, before handlers gradually demand specific intelligence on targets, including about individuals and sensitive military infrastructure, backed by the threat of blackmail, said the former official.

One Israeli suspect, Vladislav Victorsson, 30, was arrested on Oct. 14 along with his 18-year-old girlfriend in the Israeli city of Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv. He had been jailed in 2015 for sex with minors as young as 14, according to a court indictment from that time.

An acquaintance of Victorsson told Reuters he had told her he had spoken to Iranians using the Telegram messaging app. She said that Victorsson had lied to his handlers about his military experience. The acquaintance declined to be named, citing safety fears.

Igal Dotan, Victorsson's lawyer, told Reuters he was representing the suspect, adding that the legal process would take time and that his client was being held in tough conditions. Dotan said he could only respond to the current case and had not defended Victorsson in earlier trials.

Shin Bet and police said Victorsson knew he was working for Iranian intelligence, carrying out tasks including spraying graffiti, hiding money, posting flyers and burning cars in the Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv for which he received over $5,000.

According to the investigation made public by the security services, he was found to have subsequently agreed to carry out an assassination of an Israeli personality, throw a grenade into a house and also look to obtain a sniper rifle, pistols and fragmentation grenades.

He recruited his girlfriend, who was tasked with recruiting homeless people to photograph demonstrations, the security services said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-israeli-jews-spied-iran-090442972.html