NFL betting growth at legal U.S. sportsbooks is showing signs of stalling as prediction markets gain significant ground, according to the American Gaming Association. The AGA estimates $29.5 billion will be wagered on the 2026 NFL season through domestic sportsbooks, up just 0.3 percent from last season.
Missouri was the only state to launch legal sports betting since 2025, contributing to the slowdown, though the AGA identified the growth of prediction markets as the primary factor. Betting volume with U.S. sportsbooks grew just 4 percent from last September through May, down sharply from 14 percent growth over the same period the previous year.
Last football season marked the first in which prediction markets such as Kalshi began offering a broad menu of sports contracts. Experts project NFL trading volume on prediction markets could double this season to reach $36.8 billion, according to analysis from Rotowire.com. Prediction market volume differs from traditional betting handle because contracts can change hands multiple times.
Industry research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming found that NFL trading volume on prediction markets in August was 4.6 times higher than the same month last year.
The growth has continued despite mounting legal challenges. A federal appeals court ruled last week that Nevada could enforce gaming regulations prohibiting Kalshi from offering sports trading in the state, and New Jersey asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday to weigh in on the legality of prediction markets nationally.
The NFL sent a letter to prediction market operators this week raising concerns about threats to the sport's integrity.
"It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges," wrote Sabrina Perel, the NFL's chief compliance officer, in a letter obtained by ESPN.
AGA CEO and president Bill Miller accused prediction markets of misleading consumers and avoiding state and tribal gaming regulations in a release announcing the group's annual NFL betting estimate.
"Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight and accountability that the legal market provides," said Miller.
Prediction markets allow customers 18 and older to trade, compared to a legal age of 21 for regulated sportsbooks in most states. The Coalition for Prediction Markets did not respond to a request for comment from ESPN.
The NFL season kicks off Wednesday when the Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots.
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