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Friday, January 22, 2021

Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic

 


Abstract

Background:

Asymptomatic infection seems to be a notable feature of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the prevalence is uncertain.

Purpose:

To estimate the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 who never develop symptoms.

Data Sources:

Searches of Google News, Google Scholar, medRxiv, and PubMed using the keywords antibodiesasymptomaticcoronavirusCOVID-19PCRseroprevalence, and SARS-CoV-2.

Study Selection:

Observational, descriptive studies and reports of mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 that were either cross-sectional or longitudinal in design; were published through 17 November 2020; and involved SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid or antibody testing of a target population, regardless of current symptomatic status, over a defined period.

Data Extraction:

The authors collaboratively extracted data on the study design, type of testing performed, number of participants, criteria for determining symptomatic status, testing results, and setting.

Data Synthesis:

Sixty-one eligible studies and reports were identified, of which 43 used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of nasopharyngeal swabs to detect current SARS-CoV-2 infection and 18 used antibody testing to detect current or prior infection. In the 14 studies with longitudinal data that reported information on the evolution of symptomatic status, nearly three quarters of persons who tested positive but had no symptoms at the time of testing remained asymptomatic. The highest-quality evidence comes from nationwide, representative serosurveys of England (n = 365 104) and Spain (n = 61 075), which suggest that at least one third of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic.

Limitation:

For PCR-based studies, data are limited to distinguish presymptomatic from asymptomatic infection. Heterogeneity precluded formal quantitative syntheses.

Conclusion:

Available data suggest that at least one third of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic. Longitudinal studies suggest that nearly three quarters of persons who receive a positive PCR test result but have no symptoms at the time of testing will remain asymptomatic. Control strategies for COVID-19 should be altered, taking into account the prevalence and transmission risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Primary Funding Source:

National Institutes of Health.

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6976

Monoclonal antibodies can prevent COVID, but successful vaccines complicate their future

 A study in U.S. nursing homes has shown for the first time that monoclonal antibodies, mass-produced in a laboratory, can protect people from developing symptomatic COVID-19. Their manufacturer, Eli Lilly, hopes these antibodies will provide an additional way to protect people at risk of serious disease from the pandemic coronavirus. But given the success of COVID-19 vaccines and their increasing availability, it’s not clear that the expensive and somewhat cumbersome intervention will be widely used.

Both Eli Lilly’s monoclonal antibody and a similar two-antibody cocktail from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals—famously used to treat former U.S. President Donald Trump in October 2020—have already received emergency use authorization (EUA) as a therapeutic for those who have become infected and are at high risk of developing severe COVID-19. So far, they are not widely used because they must be given early in infection and infused in a hospital or clinic. But now that they appear effective at preventing even mild disease, Eli Lilly plans to ask the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to expand the EUA to include use as a preventive.

In the new study, nearly 1000 people who lived or worked in U.S. nursing homes received either a single infusion of Eli Lilly’s antibody—containing four times the dose used for therapeutic purposes—or a placebo. In a press release yesterday, the company announced that the antibody reduced the risk of becoming ill with COVID-19 in the following 8 weeks by 57%. Among nursing home residents, who made up about one-third of the trial participants, the risk of COVID-19 illness dropped by 80%. Only four COVID-19related deaths occurred in the study, and all were in nursing home residents in the placebo group.

“I’m superhappy about these results,” says Davey Smith, an infectious disease clinician at the University of California, San Diego, who was not involved in the study. He says the antibodies could be “really helpful” in long-term care facilities, which account for almost 40% of U.S. COVID-19 deaths. “If this is borne out, and I think there’s every reason to think it will be, then it’s another tool,” says Rajesh Gandhi, an infectious disease clinician at Massachusetts General Hospital. But he wants to see more specific data than the press release provides.

The finding that the antibody worked better in nursing home residents than staff may seem puzzling—and indeed the press release leaves out details that statisticians contacted by Science said they needed to make sense of this. But Eli Lilly’s Janelle Sabo explains the study measured reductions in risk, and residents have a higher risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19: They’re older and often have weaker immune systems and more underlying diseases, and they never leave. Staff spend less time at the facilities and can stay home if there is an outbreak, she says. “What we find then, of course, is there’s more opportunity to reduce the risk of infection [among residents] than in the overall population,” says Sabo, a pharmacologist.

How Eli Lilly’s antibody would be used isn’t entirely clear. Sabo suggests that if an outbreak occurs in a nursing facility, it could be given to residents who have not been vaccinated or have only received one of the two shots. “That’s probably going to be the niche population,” she says.

Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, one of the study’s principal investigators, says he hopes preventive doses could be given as easy-to-administer subcutaneous shots, rather than infusions. Studies to test that strategy have begun. Ideally, those infected with the virus should receive a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test first, he adds: “People already making antibodies probably don’t need this.”

Cohen adds that the prevention and treatment trials have also had a basic science payoff: clarifying how antibodies prevent SARS-CoV-2 from causing serious disease. “Pretty much for the first time I have a real grasp of how the infection progresses,” Cohen says.

Infection, he notes, begins in the nose, and severe disease occurs when the virus reaches the lungs. Three days after an infected person received the monoclonal antibodies, Cohen says, nose swabs showed a “huge” drop in virus levels in the nose, not seen in people who received a placebo. That, in turn, led to better clinical outcomes. So, the antibodies, whether given as preventive or treatment, appear to largely confine the infection to the nose.

One potential drawback is that these monoclonal antibodies could undermine the effectiveness of vaccines. The two vaccines authorized in the United States contain messenger RNA (mRNA) that directs the body’s cells to make the surface protein, spike, of SARS-CoV-2, which then triggers the immune system to make antibodies against spike. The Eli Lilly and Regeneron monoclonal antibodies also target spike, and the concern is that they could bind to the protein made by the mRNA, stopping the vaccine dead in its tracks. Eli Lilly plans to launch studies to test this in vaccinated people, Sabo says.

Monoclonal antibodies could also lose their potency because of viral mutations. One study of a SARS-CoV-2 mutant circulating widely in South Africa, published 19 January on the preprint server bioRxiv, has already shown this in test tube experiments.

But now that vaccines, cheaper and easier to administer, are being deployed by the millions—with priority for the most vulnerable populations—the question is what role remains for monoclonals in the first place. Cohen says they might be important for the elderly and other people with compromised immune systems who do not have vigorous responses to vaccines. “We’ve just created a failsafe,” he says. “If we never have to use it in the nursing home again, I’ll be thrilled.”

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/monoclonal-antibodies-can-prevent-covid-19-successful-vaccines-complicate-their-future

UC Irvine Scientists Work on COVID-19 Vaccine to Attack All Strains

 UC Irvine scientists are working on developing a vaccine that would attack all strains of COVID-19 as well as a potential breakthrough that would solve many of the problems related to distributing the medicine, a UCI professor on the project said Thursday.

Lbachir BenMohamed, a UCI School of Medicine professor, said his team is developing what they envision will be a vaccine that could work on all strains in the SARS-CoV-2 family.

The UCI vaccine would be a “backup” to the vaccines used now and anticipated to be approved shortly, BenMohamed said.

“Our vaccine is not only focused on spike protein,” to provoke an immune response, like Pfizer's and Moderna's, the professor said. There are two dozen other proteins that can prompt an immune response, he said.

“Right now we are doing clinical studies,” he said as the scientists prepare to monitor how the vaccines work on lab mice with that work expected to be done by this summer.

The scientists will generate multiple vaccines and pick the one most effective on the coronavirus, BenMohamed said.

“Our vaccine is designed to protect from common cold coronavirus… and to protect from the viruses not here yet,” BenMohamed said.

There are new strains in Japan and South Africa with a study this week indicating that the vaccines we have available might not be as potent on.

Southern California has the more highly contagious strain from the U.K.

BenMohamed noted that the study on the South African strain has not been peer reviewed “so we don't really know” how the vaccines would work on it. The Japan variant is a mix of the U.K. and South African strains, he said.

“The good news is it looks like the vaccine is efficient against the U.K. variant,” BenMohamed said.

The issues with distributing the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines as outlined by the Biden administration on Thursday could be solved by another project the scientists are working on, BenMohamed said.

The scientists are working to see if a vaccine can be transmitted with patch technology that is similar to the way the nicotine patch works for smokers trying to quit the habit, he said.

“Next week we'll know if that delivery system will induce the immune system,” BenMohamed said.

If so, “we could mail the doses of vaccines... you put it on your arm and then you're vaccinated,” BenMohamed said. “Three weeks after that we'll send you the second dose.”

This technology will be especially helpful in distributing vaccines in under-developed countries or remote regions of the world, BenMohamed said.

Distributing a vaccine costs six times more than making the medicine, he said.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/uc-irvine-scientists-working-on-covid-19-vaccine-that-would-attack-all-strains/2510566/

Airbnb offers Biden administration help with vaccine distribution

 Airbnb on Friday sent a letter to the Biden administration offering to help with the coronavirus vaccine distribution especially in rural communities. 

The vacation rental company offered to identify homes that could be used as vaccine distribution sites in communities with limited access to health care facilities as rollout efforts continue nationwide. 

“These Airbnb ‘vaccine depots’ could be available in locations where there are limited or no health care facilities or pharmacies, so-called ‘health care deserts,’ ” Airbnb’s senior vice president for global policy and communications Christopher Lehane wrote in the letter

Additionally, the company offered to house workers traveling to distribute vaccines if they need housing support.

The letter did not detail if the Airbnb “vaccine depots” or houses used to host workers distributing the vaccine would be offered for free or discounted rates.

A White House spokesperson was not immediately available for comment in response to Airbnb’s letter. 

The offer follows Airbnb’s efforts launched last year under its Frontline Stays program to allow hosts to open their homes to front-line health care workers responding to the coronavirus pandemic. The program allows health care workers to stay at Airbnb spots closer to their work and distanced from family members in their own homes for free or discounted rates. 

At the onset of the pandemic last year, Airbnb also reached out to congressional leaders and then-Vice President Pence, who was leading the White House's coronavirus task force at the time, offering to help address the federal government's efforts with the pandemic. 

President Biden unveiled his administration’s strategy to address the coronavirus pandemic Thursday. The plan aims to vaccine 100 million Americans within his first 100 days in office. 

Amazon earlier this week sent a letter to Biden, on his first day in office, also offering to assist the new administration with its coronavirus vaccine distribution. The e-commerce giant offered to help by leveraging Amazon's operations, information technology and communications capabilities

Amazon also again urged the government to prioritize the company’s essential workers across warehouse facilities and data centers in vaccine rollouts. 

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/535432-airbnb-offers-biden-administration-help-with-coronavirus-vaccine

United Airlines CEO wants covid vax mandatory for workers

 United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told employees this week that he wants to make it mandatory for workers to take the coronavirus vaccine.

“I know the vaccines are safe. I know that it's the way to ensure the safety of our employees, ensure the safety of our customers, as we fly around the world. So, if others go along and are willing to start to mandate vaccines, you should probably expect United to be amongst the first wave of companies that do it,” Kirby said at a town hall on Thursday, according to a transcript obtained by The Hill.

Other major companies have not announced if they would make the vaccine mandatory yet, but Kirby stressed at the town hall that it is something he is strongly considering.

“One, we have to have the logistic challenges worked out.” He said. “But, two, I don't think United will get away with and can realistically be the only company that requires vaccines and makes them mandatory. We need some others. We need some others to show leadership. Particularly in the health care industry.”

United had 60,000 active U.S.-based employees at the end of 2020. Since the start of the new year, the airline has issued recall notices to about 17,000 more employees following additional relief for airlines included in the latest coronavirus relief package.

Airlines and unions have lobbied to get air travel workers early on the vaccine distribution list and they are considered essential workers.

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/aviation/535439-united-airlines-ceo-wants-to-make-vaccine-mandatory-for

Travel group, airlines oppose quarantine for U.S.-bound air passengers

 Groups representing the U.S. travel industry and airlines on Friday voiced opposition to mandatory quarantines for air passengers arriving in the United States from overseas a day after President Joe Biden signed an order to take that step.

Biden on Thursday issued an executive order directing federal agencies to require international air travelers to quarantine upon U.S. arrival. His administration also is implementing effective next Tuesday a requirement that all U.S.-bound passengers ages 2 and above get negative COVID-19 test results within three days before traveling.

The U.S. Travel Association, an industry group representing businesses including hotels and airlines, said the mandatory negative test requirement eliminates the need for quarantining returning passengers, a step that it said “could be extremely difficult to enforce.”

The group represents a range of travel-related businesses including hotels, car rental firms, tourism agencies and entertainment companies.

At a briefing on Friday, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki did not provide details on what actions the administration might take to enforce the quarantine requirements.

Airlines for America, a group representing major U.S. airlines, separately said it hoped the White House will recognize that “testing can be used to safely resume travel without quarantines, which are difficult to enforce and often prove ineffective.”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends a seven-day quarantine for air travelers arriving in the United States after being tested.

Biden also directed federal agencies to implement a mask-wearing mandate for interstate transportation for passengers aboard trains, buses and air travel. The president directed the agencies to make recommendations to “impose additional public health measures for domestic travel,” which administration officials said could include a negative COVID-19 test before flying domestically.

U.S. Travel Association Chief Executive Roger Dow said in a statement the group does not think making testing mandatory before domestic travel is “feasible or viable.”

The Biden administration has said it plans to reimpose entry bans on most non-U.S. citizens who have recently been in Brazil and most of Europe. Former President Donald Trump issued an order on Monday lifting the restrictions, effective Tuesday.

Biden issued a separate order on Wednesday instructing agencies to require the use of masks in federal buildings and on federal lands.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-masks/travel-group-airlines-oppose-quarantine-for-u-s-bound-air-passengers-idUSKBN29R2EP

New Brazil coronavirus variant found in nearly half of Amazon city cases

 A variant of the novel coronavirus already accounts for about half of new infections in the Brazilian Amazonian city of Manaus, raising concerns about a greater risk of spread, a researcher warned on Friday.

A team led by immunologist Ester Sabino collected genomic data from COVID-19 tests in Manaus that indicated 42% of the confirmed cases were infected by the new variant, which has mutations similar to the British and South African variants.

“That was the frequency that appeared in our December data. We are finishing January now and it is increasing,” said Sabino, a University of Sao Paulo professor whose team’s preliminary results have been published on the Virological.org forum.

She said it was quite likely the new Brazilian variant is more transmissible than the current dominant strain, although it has not been proven definitively, because it has mutations shown to have that effect in other variants.

The Amazon’s largest city is currently suffering a brutal second wave of COVID-19 cases that has overwhelmed its hospital system and exhausted oxygen supplies, leaving dozens of people to die in their homes and intensive care wards, doctors say.

Manaus has resisted lockdowns and social distancing is not enforced, but researchers believe the surge is also worsened by the new variant, which was first detected two weeks ago in Japan after four people traveled to the country from Manaus.

“Everything points to this variant being behind the way the pandemic is evolving in Manaus,” Sabino said.

Sabino urged Brazilian health authorities to reinforce surveillance of the coronavirus outbreak in Manaus and its surrounding region, but also throughout Brazil. “This has to be monitored,” she said.

The new variant, identified as P.1, which has the N501Y and E484K mutations, was detected in 13 out of 31 positive PCR test samples collected in Manaus between Dec. 15-23. It was absent in genome surveillance samples seen between March and November, underscoring how quickly it has appeared and reproduced.

Given the possibility of a more contagious form of coronavirus, the group called on the civil aviation authority to step up monitoring in major airports of passengers arriving from Manaus, an isolated Amazon city mainly accessible by airplane or boat.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-variant/new-brazil-coronavirus-variant-found-in-nearly-half-of-amazon-city-cases-idUSKBN29R2GP