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Saturday, December 16, 2023

Drug Prices, Drug Patents, and the Biden Administration

BY DEREK LOWE 

The Biden administration has made headlines with a roadmap document suggesting the use of "march-in" rights regarding drug patents. And that should get some attention: this provision of the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act has never been used, and it would be a huge change in the way that the pharmaceutical industry is regulated in the US. It's a big topic, and I've broken it down into sections:

Part One: The Law Itself

Here is the actual text of the law regarding these. It applies to inventions that were made under a funding agreement from any Federal agency, and it gives that agency the right to request that the funding recipient make available some sort of licensing agreement (nonexclusive, partially exclusive, or exclusive) to one or more third parties if so requested (under the conditions below), and it gives the agency the power to make such licensing agreements itself if the inventors refuse. But this only can take place if the funding agency determines that such action is necessary because of one or more of the following conditions:

1. The inventor/assignee is not taking steps towards a practical application of the invention in a reasonable amount of time. 2. Particular health or safety needs are not being "reasonably satisfied" by the existing arrangement(s). 3. Requirements for public use specified by some other Federal regulation are not being met, or 4. The inventor/assignee is in violation of Section 204 of this part of the US Code, which requires that such inventions either be "substantially produced" in the US, or that the assignee has shown that this is not feasible or that good-faith attempts to do so have been unsuccessful.

Those first two provisions are the ones under discussion (and always have been - none of the previous petitions for the government to exercise march-in rights have been on the basis of the other two). It's worth noting at this point that this part of the law differs from another one that allows the government to use a patented invention without the permission of the patent holder while paying them "reasonable and entire compensation" for doing so. That one has been invoked before, with the only pharmaceutical case that I'm aware of being the manufacture of ciprofloxacin for stockpiling after the 2001 anthrax attacks. In that case, Bayer agreed to supply at a discount when this law invocation came up as a possibility.

Part Two: Federal Funding and Marketed Drugs

But march-in rights are a different story and a more complicated one, since it involves not just the government and a single company, but rather opens up the licensing of the patent to others. And the march-in provision is predicated on the invention having been realized through federal funding, which is where some serious arguing starts. I have posted extensively on this "Where Do Drugs Come From" topic over the years, most recently during my brief encounter with Rep. Alexandriz Ocasio-Cortez after a 2019 Congressional hearing on the topic. That post contains a long list of links to past ones, but I would particularly suggest - if you don't happen to have several hours to read old blog posts - this one and this one when that topic flared up here in 2004, and this one from a similar round of arguing in 2012.

In summary, in the great majority of cases the key inventive step - in fact, the actual subject of the chemical matter patents that are at the heart of pharmaceutical IP - has not been realized through Federal funding. My own estimate is that about 15% of marketed drugs actually came out of academic labs. A main point of blog post links earlier in the paragraph is that discovery of a biochemical target does not equal the discovery  of a drug - and in fact, most of the time it never does. I have spent the last 34 years of my life working in those steps in between the two, so I can get pretty worked up when people try to tell me that these steps are trivial, non-inventive, or don't exist at all.

Part Three: March-In Rights and Pricing

Let's table that argument for the moment, though, as much as I might like to duke it out all over again. Instead, let's look at the actual attempts to use march-in rights in the drug business. Twice, the NIH has explicitly stated that the Bayh-Dole march-in provisions are not intended as a price regulation mechanism and that it believes that these cannot be triggered by an ambitious interpretation of Condition 2 as summarized above. That's a big point of discussion now, though - the National Institute of Standards and Technology, while recently evaluating the march-in provisions, explicitly did not adopt a proposal that would have prohibited their use on the basis of pricing. That is, they left the door open to price as a factor, which is a first. Stat quotes a "senior government official" as saying that "In the (new) framework, it’s very clear that that price is a part of that inquiry"

White House advisor Lael Brainard is quoted here as saying that "We'll make it clear that when drug companies won't sell taxpayer funded drugs at reasonable prices, we will be prepared to allow other companies to provide those drugs for less" and went on to say that "These authorities are in existing laws, the last administration just didn’t want to allow them to be used in this way" That is certainly true, although it's worth noting that the Obama administration before that one also didn't want that, nor did any other going back to 1980. The attempt to make this a "Here's what Trump wouldn't do and we will" issue is disingenous, much as I dislike giving the Trump administration a break considering what the so much of the rest of it was like.

Part Four: Monopoly Power?

Meanwhile, President Biden himself quoted this document from his team, emphasizing that 25 drug companies control about 70% of the industry's revenues. I do not find that compelling evidence of monopoly or cartel practices myself, especially in an industry that depends on individually differentiated patented drugs. In fact, I'm trying to think of a major industry in this country that has things broken up into as many players as that. Commercial banking might qualify, but the four largest banks in the US had about half the sector's profits late last year. I believe that you'll hit the 70% US revenue figure by the time you get to about seven or eight automobile companies. Semiconductor fabrication hits 70% right after you finish counting TSMC and Samsung. You hit 70% market share before you even get out of the top ten car insurance companies. And so on. Counterexamples are welcome in the comments.

But I have one for you now, and it's quite relevant to the drug business: pharmacy benefit managers. Who are not drug companies, but rather the go-betweens in the delivery system. These are the companies that both private and government insurance plans (along with hospitals and other major customers) use to do price negotiations (whose details are not revealed) and handle the physical distribution of the drugs. The big three in that business (CVS/Caremark, United Health/Optum and Cigna/Express Scripts/Evernorth) hold over 80% of the market. They have higher revenues than the large drug companies themselves, which is an interesting situation and is not generally realized by the public.

Part Five: How Would This Work?

One more point, before I find myself going on about this all day. Who exactly are those "other companies" that will be enlisted to provide those drugs for less, should the administration try to exercise the march-in provisions? Generic drug manufacturers? There aren't really any of those in the US, you know - you will be providing a windfall to Chinese and Indian manufacturers as things stand, which is probably not what the administration has in mind. And how long will it take to get these things on line? Generic drug companies gear up for patent expirations to enter those markets, but if you decide that a drug that's years away from patent loss is now up for licensing, how hard will it be to get the manufacturing up from a standing surprise start? Note also that some of these are antibodies and biologics that have significantly greater manufacturing challenges. We will leave discussion of the immediate (and surely lengthy) court challenges that would follow any such attempt for the day anything like this actually happens.

So the practical effects of all this are going to be complicated to work out. But the march-in framework is of a piece with the Inflation Reduction Act provisions for Medicare/CMS price negotiations, which I last wrote about there. The Biden administration is signaling as loudly as it can that it wants to do something about drug prices, or failing that, wants very much to be seen to be trying to do something about drug prices. In politics, those two things can be nearly equivalent. 

Part Six: What It's Happening Now

Well, a lot of reasons. One of which is the aforementioned politics - you may well have noticed that we have an election season coming up next year, and the Biden administration is looking for winning issues to claim. I should make it clear right now that if that election comes down to Biden v. Trump, as it certainly and depressingly looks like it will, then I will still be voting for Joe Biden no matter how many strange ideas he has about the industry I work in or how many nasty things he threatens to do to it. It's that bad

But another reason, which I have mentioned here many times over the years, is that this very drug industry that has paid my salary for so long has also been acting as if such a day would never come. So no one should be surprised that someone is taking them up on that assumption. On the research and development side, we have produced a lot of real medical advances and saved a huge number of people from a huge amount of death and suffering. But on the sales and marketing side, this has been funded by relentless price increases and other marketing practices that have invited contempt and hatred. There is a constant roar about the ratios between these two (R&D and SG&A), and I have written about this a number of times as well: here are two posts from 2013 and another one from 2014. And we can't ignore the effect of low interest rates (and low cost of capital) on the industry's profits in recent history, either. My summary of all that stuff is that the drug industry is a very strange one, and it's all due to the >80% clinical failure rate. We bring in a lot of money and we spend a lot of money, and we milk our sales as hard as we can while we have them.

We have, though, been asking for trouble. Those price increases by the large companies are one big reason, and the headlines around crap like this are another. This is another one of those Martin Shkreli-style ideas to take a regulatory loophole for market exclusivity and exploit the hell out of it. In this case, it's a small outfit ("Rising Pharmaceuticals") that is supplying calcium disodium EDTA as an antidote for lead poisoning. This is an old treatment and an old compound, but they (like Valeant before them with the same compound, and others) have taken the opportunity to raise the price by a factor of ten. Because they can. And that's what people get to hear about the drug industry. Who wouldn't be pissed off?


https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/drug-prices-drug-patents-and-biden-administration

More major shipping companies suspend Red Sea journeys following Houthi attacks

 A number of major global shipping companies have announced they are suspending journeys through the Red Sea following a spate of attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement, an Iran-aligned group.


AP Møller-Mærsk, or Maersk, which operates the world’s second-largest container shipping fleet, said on Friday that it had instructed all vessels due to pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait to "pause their journey until further notice." 

The Bab al-Mandab strait is a strategically important sea lane that runs past Yemen and through which much of the world's oil is shipped. The strait is a key conduit to the Suez Canal.

Copenhagen-based Maersk said that recent attacks on commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea "are alarming and pose a significant threat to the safety and security of seafarers."

Maersk was joined on Saturday by the Swiss-based MSC and the French shipping group CMA CGM, who also halted their operations.

"The situation is further deteriorating and concern for safety is increasing," CMA CGM said in a statement.

The German container line Hapag Lloyd had said that it might do the same.

Meanwhile, Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodities traders, said it was "taking additional precautions" for its owned and chartered vessels, according to the Financial Times. 

The Liberian-flagged MSC Palatium III was attacked on Friday with a drone in the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. No injuries were reported, but the vessel suffered some fire damage and was taken out of service, MSC said in a statement. 

A Google Maps image showing the Red Sea in the Middle East

The Bab al-Mandab strait is a strategically important sea lane that runs past Yemen and through which much of the world's oil is shipped. The strait is a key conduit to the Suez Canal. (Google Maps)

Another Liberian-flagged vessel, Hapag Lloyd's Al Jasrah, was hit by a missile, the U.S. military said.

Yemen's Houthi movement has launched more than 10 attacks on ships in the area since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and has said that it would target all ships heading to Israel, regardless of their nationality, as part of its support for Hamas. They have warned international shipping companies against dealing with Israeli ports.

"The Yemeni armed forces confirm they will continue to prevent all ships heading to Israeli ports from navigating in the (Red Sea) until they bring in the food and medicine that our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip need," a Houthi military spokesperson said in a statement claiming responsibility for Friday’s attacks.

A light blue colored Maersk container ship heading towards the Red Sea after passing through the Suez Canal in Suez, Egypt.

A Maersk container ship heading toward the Red Sea after passing through the Suez Canal in Suez, Egypt. Yemen's Houthi movement has launched more than 10 attacks on ships in the area since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. (Kristian Helgesen/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The group has attacked and seized several Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait and has also fired ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel.

Three commercial vessels were attacked in the Red Sea on December 3, prompting the U.S. warship USS Carney to shoot down multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) headed toward them.

The news of the shipping companies suspending journeys comes about a week after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allegedly told President Biden that his country would act militarily against Yemen's Houthi movement if the United States fails to do so, according to a report by Israeli publication N12News.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/fox-news-world/major-shipping-companies-suspend-red-sea-journeys-following-houthi-attacks

With buy-now-pay-later up 40%, holiday debt hangover e 'particulamay brly nasty' this year

 While retail sales are strong, typically an indication of a healthy consumer, an industry economist is deeply concerned about how consumers will pay it all off when the bill comes. 

Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman's concerns were heightened, in particular, after noticing an uptick in usage for buy now, pay later (BNPL) services as consumers battle growing debt obligations. 

These payment services were up 40% year over year on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to data from Adobe. 

This uptick suggests that "a lot of people are close to the edge," and it's one reason why Rossman believes the "holiday debt hangover could be particularly nasty this year."

"I think the substantial surge in BNPL usage (on top of already explosive growth in recent years) shows how many people are looking for quick, affordable financing," he said. 

These services – like Klarna or Afterpay – are advertised as interest-free loans that can be paid in weekly or monthly installments. And while it can help ease cash-flow issues, financial experts say there are hidden risks when shoppers rely on the services too much.

Klarna ad

An advertisement for the Klarna Buy Now Pay Later app is visible in the Broadway Plaza shopping center in Walnut Creek, California, on November 24, 2021. (Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images / Getty Images)

"While one could use these plans to their advantage, I do worry they’re too easy sometimes, and there isn’t enough visibility on credit reports, and sometimes people can trick themselves into spending too much," Rossman said.

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For example, four $50 payments don't sound like a lot, but Rossman said it "conceals the fact that it’s really $200, and you may already have multiple similar plans running with different providers." 

Consumers can hit late fees if they don't have the funds to cover the installments, pushing them deeper into a hole.  

Credit cards can be a great tool when they are paid in full and consumers maximize rewards. However, only about 53% of cardholders do so.

people walking to stores, shopping

Black Friday Shopping in New York City. (Photo by Thomas Iannaccone/WWD/Penske Media via Getty Images / Getty Images)

For the 47% who carry a balance month to month, credit card debt can be a big problem. 

What's worse, balances and rates "have never been higher," he said. 

Several years of high inflation and high interest rates have "eroded a lot of households’ savings and buying power." If families are stacking more debt on top of that during the holiday season, it "poses trouble at least at the household level," he noted. 

Rossman noted that any excess savings from the pandemic are pretty much gone at this point, "so I worry the rising debt trend could catch up to people, especially if the job market takes a turn for the worse."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/holiday-debt-hangover-poised-be-particularly-nasty-this-year-analyst-says

Citigroup is dismantling another piece of the empire that Sandy Weill built

Citigroup (C) was for decades a top underwriter of state and local government debt, making the bank a major financier of roads, bridges, and airports across the US.

Now it wants out of that business, dismantling yet another part of an empire amassed in the 1990s.

The decision, announced internally in a bank memo Thursday, is the latest example of how Citigroup is paring back its ambitions as it tries to revive its stock price and remove decades of bloat.

The municipal bond business — known for underwriting bonds that helped pay for everything from a makeover of Chicago’s O’Hare Airport to the rebuilding of One World Trade Center following the 9/11 attacks — apparently was no longer delivering enough profits.

Aerial photo of O'Hare airport, Chicago IL
An aerial photo of O'Hare airport, in Chicago. (Boz-Hidar/iStock/Getty Images) (Boz-Hidar via Getty Images)

"The economics of these activities are no longer viable given our commitment to increase the firm’s overall returns," Citigroup executives Andy Morton and Peter Babej said in the Thursday memo. Morton is the company’s head of markets and Babej is interim head of banking.

The move, which came after months of review, will result in a wind-down of the unit by the end of the fourth quarter. Roughly 100 employees in the municipal sales, trading, and banking unit are expected to leave over the coming months.

The unwinding of a financial supermarket

There was once a time when municipal bond business was a key part of Citigroup’s billing as a "financial supermarket" that could offer any and all services needed by consumers, businesses, and governments.

The high point of this model was an era-defining 1998 merger between Citicorp and Travelers that shattered a Depression-era division between retail banking and investment banking and cemented Citigroup’s status as the world’s largest financial institution.

The deal, engineered by Sandy Weill, gave Citigroup the investment banking operations of Salomon Brothers, which at the time was the industry’s largest underwriter of municipal bonds and famously had a hand in helping New York City avoid bankruptcy during the 1970s.

Sanford I. Weill, CEO of Travelers Group, on his way to a press conference to annouce the merger. (Photo by James Leynse/Corbis via Getty Images)
Sanford Weill helped engineer the 1998 merger that cemented Citigroup as the world's largest financial services company. Here he is pictured on his way to a press conference to annouce the deal. (James Leynse/Corbis via Getty Images) (James Leynse via Getty Images)

In the decades since 1998, the colossus built by Weill proved to be too complex and unwieldy to manage effectively, and the 2008-2009 financial crisis dealt another blow to its sweeping ambitions. The company began to slowly unwind parts of the empire.

The muni bond exit is yet another step in that direction as CEO Jane Fraser tries to focus the company on serving big, multinational corporations, shed what isn't profitable, and operate more efficiently.

She is pulling back from consumer banking in various parts of the world, with plans to exit 14 consumer franchises in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Mexico.

She is also cutting jobs and reorganizing business lines as part of an internal restructuring that Fraser has called the "most consequential" change to how Citigroup operates in nearly two decades.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser testifies during a Wall Street oversight hearing by the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, December 6, 2023. Large US banks railed against new proposed capital requirements at a congressional hearing on Wednesday, joining Senate Republicans in casting the measures as crimping loans to everyday Americans. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser testifies during a hearing in Washington on Dec. 6. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) (SAUL LOEB via Getty Images)

Layoffs associated with that restructuring began in November. Citigroup CFO Mark Mason said at a Goldman Sachs conference last week that the bank anticipates a charge of "a couple hundred million dollars" related to these restructuring efforts.

The hope is that these moves will revive Citigroup’s stock. Over the past decade, it has fallen more than 2%, significantly lagging Big Bank peers and even the wider KBW US bank index (^BKX), which has risen 44% over the same period.

Muni challenges

During much of that same period, Citigroup held a dominant position in the muni world. From 2015 until 2021, it was the country's second-biggest underwriter of municipal bonds. But its ranking has slipped some in the last two years.

New capital requirements from regulators could make that business less profitable going forward. There are also government efforts at state levels to restrict the ability of certain banks to participate in muni bond offerings if they don’t comply with local preferences.

In Texas, for example, the bank found itself unable to conduct muni business after the attorney general’s office in January determined that Citigroup had "a policy that discriminates against a firearm entity or firearm trade association."

The response followed a decision made by Citigroup to restrict its banking services to gun retailers that sold firearms to people under 21, which came as a response to the 2018 Parkland shooting in a Miami suburb.

The state has a law in place barring certain government contracts with companies that have anti-gun business practices.

Citigroup said in its memo Thursday that it will still work with state and local governments on infrastructure projects via public-private partnerships and the private placement market.

And the bank, according to the memo, will still purchase muni bonds and finance affordable housing projects in the US.

"We do think banks are likely to be less present in the muni market," Pimco’s head of municipal bonds David Hammer told Yahoo Finance Friday when asked about Citigroup's retreat.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-is-dismantling-another-piece-of-the-empire-that-sandy-weill-built-154349165.html

Watch: Joyless Leftists Kill Santa With COVID To Push Masks & Vaccines

 by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A morose leftist ‘activist’ group has produced a festive video in which Santa Claus catches COVID and dies on Christmas Eve.

Our youth have been taught lies about Israel, Hamas

 As the old Broadway song goes, “What’s the matter with kids today? Why can’t they be like we were, perfect in every way?”

Of course, kids were never perfect and have often been rebellious, but young people have also never been this far removed from reality — affected by social media and political currents that have sold them pure propaganda.

The campus rot is exemplified by the congressional performance of Harvard President Claudine Gay.

After leading a culture that put Harvard dead last on the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression’s campus free-speech rankings, she suddenly champions free speech — if it’s antisemitic hate speech.

The truth is that false narratives have been allowed to fester and sink into large numbers of Generation Z students.

While Americans aged 65 and up support Israel over Hamas by 95% to 5%, those aged 18 to 24 support Israel by the thinnest of margins, 55% to 45% in the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll.

What could possibly be driving this high level of support for Hamas?

At the core, our high schools and universities have failed to teach our young people even the most basic facts, leading them to support a movement they would never back if they were grounded in reality.

Gen Z has a fundamentally misguided picture of what Hamas and Israel are and how they treat different peoples.

Contrary to the facts, 44% of 18- to 24-year-olds believe Israel is not a democracy, and 41% say Israel does not allow Arabs to vote in elections.

When asked about Hamas, 41% of this age group think Hamas rules democratically and is not authoritarian.

It’s no wonder about 45% of young people support Hamas — they think Israel is the dictatorship and Hamas the democracy.

The picture is similarly upside down when it comes to issues of tolerance.

Only 53% of 18- to 24-year-olds think Israel respects the rights of religious and ethnic minorities.

Only 51% think Israel allows gay people to live openly.

Even more shocking, 45% of this age group think Hamas allows gay people to live together openly, and 51% believe Hamas respects the rights of religious and ethnic minorities.

This is farcical when Hamas’ charter explicitly advocates the eradication of Jews and Hamas has executed suspected homosexuals.

Just about the only horror Gen Z acknowledges is that Hamas uses Gazan civilians as human shields.

Yet still only 68% of 18- to 24-year-olds recognize that, compared with 95% of seniors.

And no, Jews are not colonizers, and Israel is not an apartheid country — it is the Jewish homeland dating back thousands of years, and Jews are a multiracial group themselves.

These are antisemitic tropes that have been allowed to grow to the extent that even horrific rapes and murders are not condemned.

Where are young people getting this misinformation?

Seventy percent of 18- to 24-year-olds claim to be paying very close or somewhat close attention to the war.

But clearly, they’re spending too much time in the wrong TikTok and campus bubbles: 64% of them didn’t even know about the partial four-hour daily cease-fires Israel implemented Nov. 9 — the highest level of ignorance of any age group.

Young people are far removed from the horrors of the Holocaust and even 9/11.

They don’t understand Israel’s history and its creation by a United Nations vote of two-thirds of members nearly 75 years ago, and so they parrot empty catchphrases about decolonization.

They’re even bringing back Osama bin Laden’s “Letter to America” because they see the “letter” essentially calls for jihad against anyone outside radical Islam, whether Jewish, American or even Arab.

The scariest thing of all is you don’t even have to read between the lines of Hamas’ charter to grasp its antisemitism and evil, yet nearly half of Gen Z still excuses and supports the terrorist group.

These young Americans would have an extremely rude awakening if they traveled to Gaza and saw the horrors Hamas perpetrates against its own people.

The good news is in the bad news: It’s not that our young people have become terrorists; it’s that they’ve become confused on who the real terrorists are.

The right teachers and sources of information would fix this problem, and this starts with a true reformation of our high-school and university leadership.

But as the song illustrates, even if students are misguided today, they generally become more grounded in truth as they mature and go from the ivory tower to the real world.

For Gen Z that cannot happen fast enough.  

Mark Penn was a pollster and adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton, 1995-2008. He is chairman of the Harris Poll and CEO of Stagwell. Andrew Stein, a Democrat, served as New York City Council president, 1986-94.

https://nypost.com/2023/12/14/opinion/our-youth-are-misguided-not-evil-theyve-been-taught-lies-about-israel-hamas/