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Sunday, April 14, 2024

Oil prices fall after Iran attack as market draws down risk premium

 Oil prices fell at Asia's open on Monday, as market participants dialled back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.

Brent futures for June delivery fell 24 cents to $90.21 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 38 cents at $85.28 a barrel by 1256 GMT.

The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades. It had raised concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.

But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.

While Israeli officials said the country's war cabinet was in favour of retaliation, the U.S. said it would not take part in any offensive against Iran. Global powers, other Arab nations and the UN secretary general have issued calls for restraint.

"The Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attack on Israel yesterday morning appears sufficient in size to revenge the killing of Iranian military personnel in Syria without being damaging enough to trigger a further escalation in hostilities at this point," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note.

Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory attack by Iran, touching their highest levels since October.

But prices still ended the week down about 1% after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year.

Despite the limited damage sustained by Israel, analysts were widely expecting at least a short-lived rally in prices this morning.

The attack marks an "unprecedented and dangerous development in an already volatile region," said Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon.

Analysts said more significant and longer-lasting price effects from the escalation would require a material disruption to supply, such as constraints on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz near Iran.

So far, the Israel-Hamas conflict has had little tangible impact on oil supply.

A "less certain path to Fed rate cuts" because of persistent U.S. inflation also weighed on prices, Sycamore said. "However, in the medium term, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe means that all the risks remain to the topside in crude oil towards $90."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-fall-iran-attack-010718741.html

US military destroyed 80 drones, 6 missiles launched from Iran, Yemen, US Centcom says

 U.S. forces, supported by U.S. European Command destroyers, on Saturday and Sunday destroyed more than 80 one-way attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles aimed at Israel from Iran and Yemen, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday.

This includes a ballistic missile on its launcher vehicle and seven UAVs destroyed on the ground prior to their launch in areas controlled by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, CENTCOM said in a post on X.

Iran launched an attack late on Saturday on Israeli territory with drones and missiles in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Syria on April 1 that killed top Revolutionary Guards commanders.

The attack by more than 300 missiles and drones, mostly launched from inside Iran, caused only modest damage as most were shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defense system and with help from the United States, Britain, France and Jordan.

"CENTCOM remains postured to support Israel’s defense against these dangerous actions by Iran. We will continue to work with all our regional partners to increase regional security," the U.S. military said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-military-destroyed-80-drones-001101977.html

Iran says it gave warning before attacking Israel. US says that's not true

 The United States rebuked claims Sunday that Iran gave other countries in the region a warning that it would be launching a significant aerial attack against Israel on Saturday.

Iran did not warn other countries in the region that it would be attacking Israel on Saturday, a senior administration official said in a briefing to reporters Sunday. When asked to confirm claims that Iran gave a 72-hour warning about its attack, the official said that was “absolutely not true.”

“They did not give a notification, nor do they give any sense of, you know, these will be the targets, so evacuate them. They were clearly intending to destroy and to cause casualties. That was their intent, and the fact that they didn’t, I think they might want to now say that, ‘Well, we didn’t need to,'” the official said.

Iran launched a wave of drone and missile attacks toward Israel on Saturday, but most of them were thwarted with the help of U.S. forces overnight. Iran said that its attack was in response to a strike earlier this month that killed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Sunday in a televised meeting that the country had warned its allies and neighbors in the region about the attack 72 hours in advance, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The senior administration official said this was not the case, noting that Iran’s goal was to harm Israel.

“And so no, there was no such forewarning or anything like that. They were very clear that they would be responding, and that was clearly going to happen. The level, scope of it was something that was discussed throughout the week,” the official said.

“But no, there was no kind of like, warning as a way to kind of fire missiles but somehow not hurt anybody. That was not … that was not their intent,” he said.

The White House sounded the alarm last week that Iran was expected to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel in response to an April 1 attack on its embassy in Syria. President Biden warned Friday that an Iranian attack would likely come “sooner than later.”

https://au.news.yahoo.com/us-disputes-iran-intended-forewarning-182902714.html

WHO Official Admits Vaccine Passports May Have Been A Scam

by Paul D. Thacker via The Disinformation Chronicle (subscribe here),

The World Health Organization’s Dr. Hanna Nohynek testified in court that she advised her government that vaccine passports were not needed but was ignored, despite explaining that the COVID vaccines did not stop virus transmission and the passports gave a false sense of security. The stunning revelations came to light in a Helsinki courtroom where Finnish citizen Mika Vauhkala is suing after he was denied entry to a café for not having a vaccine passport.

Dr. Nohynek is chief physician at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare and serves as the WHO’s chair of Strategic Group of Experts on immunization. Testifying yesterday, she stated that the Finnish Institute for Health knew by the summer of 2021 that the COVID-19 vaccines did not stop virus transmission

During that same 2021 time period, the WHO said it was working to "create an international trusted framework" for safe travel while EU members states began rolling out COVID passports. The EU Digital COVID Certificate Regulation passed in July 2021 and more than 2.3 billion certificates were later issued. Visitors to France were banned if they did not have a valid vaccine passport which citizens had to carry to buy food at stores or to use public transport.

But Dr. Nohynek testified yesterday that her institute advised the Finnish government in late 2021 that COVID passports no longer made sense, yet certificates continued to be required. Finnish journalist Ike Novikoff reported the news yesterday after leaving the Helsinki courtroom where Dr. Nohynek spoke.

Dr. Nohynek’s admission that the government ignored scientific advice to terminate vaccine passports proved shocking as she is widely embraced in global medical circles. Besides chairing the WHO’s strategic advisory group on immunizations, Dr. Nohynek is one of Finland’s top vaccine advisors and serves on the boards of Vaccines Together and the International Vaccine Institute.

The EU’s digital COVID-19 certification helped establish the WHO Global Digital Health Certification Network in July 2023. “By using European best practices we contribute to digital health standards and interoperability globally—to the benefit of those most in need,” stated one EU official.

Finnish citizen Mika Vauhkala created a website discussing his case against Finland’s government where he writes that he launched his lawsuit “to defend basic rights” after he was denied breakfast in December 2021 at a Helsinki café because he did not have a COVID passport even though he was healthy. “The constitution of Finland guarantees that any citizen should not be discriminated against based on health conditions among other things,” Vauhkala states on his website.

Vauhkala’s lawsuit continued today in Helsinki district court where British cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra will testify that, during the COVID pandemic, some authorities and medical professionals supported unethical, coercive, and misinformed policies such as vaccine mandates and vaccine passports, which undermined informed patient consent and evidence-based medical practice.

You can read Dr. Malhotra’s testimony here.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-official-admits-vaccine-passports-may-have-been-scam 

Judge Upholds Georgia's Voter Citizenship Verification Requirements

 by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge to Georgia’s voter citizenship verification requirements, keeping in place the state’s process of cross-checking citizenship status to determine voter eligibility and handing a win to election integrity advocates.

Judge Eleanor Ross of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia issued a ruling on April 11 that dismisses a lawsuit brought by a coalition of advocacy groups nearly six years ago that claimed Georgia’s voter citizenship verification requirements unfairly discriminated against naturalized citizens, who are more likely to be people of color.

Following a three-day trial, the judge ruled that all four of the plaintiffs’ claims—including that the protocols violated multiple federal laws, the U.S. Constitution, and unfairly burdened the right to vote—are dismissed.

In so doing, the judge sided with a motion for summary judgment made in 2021 by the defendant, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who argued that the state’s protocols for matching naturalized citizens’ voter registrations with the state’s citizenship records were “entirely reasonable” and placed a “minimum burden” on applicants.

Mr. Raffensperger argued that, in almost every case, the requirement was fulfilled by matching driver’s licence or state identification numbers submitted for voter registration with corresponding records at the Georgia Department of Driver Services (DDS) to confirm citizenship status.

When a naturalized citizen registers to vote in Georgia, their county registrar verifies proof of citizenship using DDS data. If that voter’s citizenship cannot be verified through that database, the onus is on the voter to submit proof of citizenship within 26 months or their voter registration application will be canceled.

The plaintiffs have alleged that DDS data is often outdated, leading many naturalized citizens’ voter registrations to be flagged and canceled unfairly.

Mr. Raffensperger disputed the claim that this issue affected many people, arguing in his motion that “any arguable burden on this small group of people to demonstrate they are now citizens is minimal and does not go beyond the ‘usual burdens of voting’ because it can be resolved as simply as showing the same photo identification that every Georgia voter is required to show in order to vote in person in Georgia.”

He also argued that the citizenship process serves a “compelling interest” in ensuring that only eligible voters are allowed to cast a vote, an argument raised by election integrity advocates across the country amid various disputes over voting rules.

‘Common Sense’ Versus ‘Disappointing’

The plaintiffs sued Mr. Raffensperger in 2018, arguing that the state’s protocols for matching naturalized citizens’ voter registrations with the state’s citizenship records violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) and the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause.

They also claimed that these protocols put an unfair burden on the right to vote, in violation of 1st and 14th Amendment protections, while also claiming that the requirements ran counter to the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) by delaying or denying qualified voters from registering to cast ballots.

The coalition of groups asked the court to rule that the citizenship matching protocols were illegal, and to permanently block their enforcement.

The case eventually went to trial on April 8, 2024, leading to a favorable ruling for Mr. Raffensperger and delivering a win to election integrity advocates more generally.

Ensuring that only U.S. citizens vote in our elections is critically important to secure and accurate elections,” Mr. Raffensperger said in a statement praising the ruling.

“Georgia’s citizenship verification process is common sense and it works. With this ruling, we are able to continue ensuring that only U.S. citizens are voting in our elections,” he added.

Aunna Dennis, executive director of Common Cause Georgia, one of the plaintiffs, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the ruling is disappointing as it keeps in place obstacles to casting a vote.

“This is disappointing because it will potentially disenfranchise citizen voters who now have to jump through multiple bureaucratic hurdles to vote,” Ms. Dennis said. “It will also create shock waves that may chill other new voters from trying to vote, even when they are eligible.”

“Sadly, Georgia’s lawful voters will bear the brunt of anti-immigrant sentiments,” she added.

Election Integrity or Voter Suppression?

The ruling comes amid concern in some circles that noncitizens—including some of the many millions of illegal immigrants who have entered the United States since President Joe Biden took office—may cast votes unlawfully in the high-stakes 2024 election.

It also comes amid a broader fight between those who see election integrity efforts as “voter suppression” and those who believe that the security of U.S. elections is too lax and should be tightened.

According to a running tally by the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, expansive voting laws far outpaced restrictive ones in 2023.

At least 53 expansive voting laws were introduced last year in at least 23 states, compared to 17 restrictive laws being passed in 14 states, suggesting that the election integrity movement is falling behind.

Amid concerns over voter fraud, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently suggested that to win the presidential election in November, Republicans need to outvote Democrats by a significant margin.

Everybody who wants an honest election should know that in the long run, we need the French model. Everybody votes on the same day. Everybody has a photo ID, everybody’s accounted as a person,” Mr. Gingrich said in a February interview on Fox News.

“But until we get to that, if Republicans want to win this year, under the rules that exist this year, they need to outvote the Democrats by about 5 percent, which is a margin big enough that it can’t be stolen,” he said.

Elsewhere, an election integrity monitor laid out over a dozen “critical” reforms that it believes are necessary in order to secure voter integrity in the 2024 election, including outlawing ranked choice voting and non-citizen voting, consolidating election dates, requiring voter ID, and safeguarding vulnerable mail ballots.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/judge-upholds-georgias-voter-citizenship-verification-requirements

Daytime Solar Power Glut in California, Rooftop Sales Plunge 90%

 Demand for rooftop solar systems dries up in California after subsidies drop. 100 contractors go out of business. Fancy that.

California Home-Solar Boom Collapses

The Wall Street Journal reports The Home-Solar Boom Gets a ‘Gut Punch’

The amount of solar power U.S. homeowners install could shrink 13% this year, as forecast by the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. More than a hundred solar contractors have already gone out of business during the past year as demand dried up, according to data tracked by Solar Insure, a company that monitors residential solar installations and helps fix problems.

The state has installed so many panels that it has a glut of solar power during the day. Last year, California implemented new rules that cut the amount of compensation most rooftop solar owners get for the electricity they send to the grid by 75% or more to manage the oversupply and soaring costs for upgrading the grid. 

“It was like getting a gut punch,” says Carlos Beccar, marketing director of Fresno-based Energy Concepts, a solar installer that had to lay off more than half its 75 employees after sales plummeted as much as 90% following the new rules.

California’s solar growth is outpacing the ability of its grid to handle it. The state already supplies more than a third of its power with renewables, and it plans to raise that ratio to 60% by 2030. But because the state’s grid can’t absorb all the solar power generated during the day, it ends up throwing increasing amounts of it away or curtailing it.

Quote of the Day

When David Phippen, a third-generation almond grower in central California, first installed solar panels in 2009 to help power equipment on his farm, he recalls thinking it was “the best thing since canned beer.”

Under the old solar-compensation rules, the economics worked out. But now that those payments will be slashed, adding more solar no longer makes sense, says Phippen—even though he has more equipment and bigger electricity needs.

“We’re done with our green march,” he says.

Rooftop Solar Synopsis

California created a boom by offering homeowners a chance to sell energy back to the grid at unsustainable rates.

This year utility companies then slashed what they pay to customers by 75 percent or more.

The payback time for these systems no longer makes any sense. More accurately, if you have to subsidize something, it is not economically feasible in the first place; it just looks like it.

The boom then imploded.

Electricity Rates

Chart courtesy of EnergyBot.

It’s going to be interesting to see what California does at night and what electricity costs when the state achieves its 60 percent solar power goal.

It’s possible that electricity prices rise so much that residents will be forced to put in their own systems and buy an expensive battery storage system on top of it to escape the PG&E power costs.

How the Inflation Reduction Act Failed to Reduced Electricity Costs in Pictures

Let’s check in on the not exactly impressive energy and inflation results of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Data from the BLS, chart by Mish

In case you missed it, please consider How the Inflation Reduction Act Failed to Reduced Electricity Costs in Pictures

Biden’s energy policy has been an inflationary disaster. And make no mistake, the IRA was nothing but energy policy, more precisely, climate policy.

Biden Promotes Climate Change at the Expense of More Global Poverty

Internationally, please note Biden Promotes Climate Change at the Expense of More Global Poverty

The mad rush to deal with climate change, even if it works (it won’t), has a nasty tradeoff (more global poverty).

https://mishtalk.com/economics/daytime-solar-power-glut-in-california-rooftop-sales-plunge-90-percent/

Saudi, Qatari foreign ministers discusses regional escalations with Iranian counterpart

 Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah received a phone call from his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian late on Sunday, during which they discussed developments in the region after Iran launched drones and missiles on Israel, Saudi state news agency reported.

"During the call, repercussions from developments in the situation in the region and the increasing escalation against the backdrop of the crisis in Gaza Strip were discussed," a statement from Saudi's foreign ministry said.

Qatar's foreign minister also held a call with Amirabdollahian on Sunday, expressing deep concern over developments in the region and reiterating their commitment to support efforts at achieving stability on all levels, Qatari state media reported.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudi-qatari-foreign-ministers-discusses-202908565.html