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Sunday, June 16, 2024

MS-13, Russian mob use migrants in elaborate injury scam, even get spine surgery to pull it off: sources

 It’s the melting pot of all scams.

Russian gangsters, MS-13 members, and a cadre of corrupt surgeons, lawyers and lenders are pulling off the latest big con in the city: bogus personal-injury lawsuits where immigrants go under the knife to help their twisted ruse.

Migrants and other desperate New Yorkers are pressured into getting unneeded spinal fusion surgery and other operations to boost the value of their fake-accident claims, according to court records, insurance investigators and law-enforcement sources.

Doctors cash in on the sick swindle by performing back and neck fusions, allowing fraudsters to swipe billions through bogus insurance filings, according to court filings and sources.  

The racket typically involves a healthy person taking a seemingly minor tumble on the street or at a construction site.H_Ko – stock.adobe.com

The racket typically involves a healthy person taking a seemingly minor tumble on the street or at a construction site, then claiming a devastating injury that requires multiple surgeries. A crooked surgeon fuses healthy vertebrae with screws and plates, leading to a lawsuit against a business or landlord or both. Settlements start at $1 million each but can go much higher.

“One-five is now on the cheap side,” said an insurance industry lawyer who asked for anonymity.

These scams rely on law firms that take on hundreds of such cases, along with high-profile doctors, sketchy lending firms that hard-sell migrants into borrowing to cover the costs, and an army of “runners” who recruit victims and orchestrate their falls, according to legal papers and sources familiar with the mix of schemes. 

The set-up is fed by a seemingly endless supply of low-income dupes willing to risk their health for a quick score.

“They’re regularly recruiting migrants and homeless people and in some cases are proactively arranging for them to come to New York,” a private investigator told The Post.

So-called “shot callers” pocket most of the windfall settlements, while those who pose as injured receive as little as $1,000 each, according to testimony in one case. Their share gets shriveled by sky-high interest on loans they’re told they need for medical and legal expenses. Others can collect up to six figures.

Russian hoodlums are suspected of running lending firms that fund trip-and-fall lawsuits and surgeries — often at hugely inflated rates to goose settlement figures, sources told The Post. “They’re well-versed in this kind of thing,” said a recently retired NYPD supervisor. 

MS-13 leaders provide a pipeline of Hispanic migrants, some who are brought to New York specifically to fake injuries, sources said. They said the gang ropes in unsuspecting border crossers with offers to drive them to the city, pay for meals and provide spending cash before pressuring them into phony accidents.

“They’re regularly recruiting migrants and homeless people and in some cases are proactively arranging for them to come to New York,” a private investigator told The Post.REUTERS

A private investigator said an MS-13 informant at a construction company revealed plans for a worker to fall off a ladder — and it happened just as the tipster said it would, said the sleuth, who declined to say where or when the fraud occurred to protect the identity of his source. 

Setting up fake falls is “so successful for MS-13,” he said. “Rival gangs are now trying it.”

But MS-13 leaders are not experienced in white collar crime and don’t know how to pull off phony injury fraud, according to gang expert Lou Savelli, who founded the NYPD gang unit and now consults for police and other law enforcement agencies. “That’s where the Russians come in,” he said. “They have the lawyers.”

NYPD investigators found one integrated Russian-led operation — with doctors, lawyers, lenders and physical therapists all in the same office building, said a former police supervisor who declined to give further details. “It was one-stop shopping. Everyone was in the same place,” he said, adding that authorities were unable to build a case against the group. 

The Russian-MS-13 partnership “is a perfect marriage for them,” said a second ex-NYPD source.

 Insurance insiders claim losses have tripled since the pandemic, with payouts so massive they’re driving up the cost of living for all New Yorkers. 

One insurerTradesman Program Managers insurance firm of Poughkeepsie, a carrier covering contractors and construction companies in the city, says it forked over $142 million in 2022, three times the $36 million it paid out in 2018. It claims it has been hit with 650 allegedly fraudulent suits over the last four years.

“We’re talking billions collectively across the city,” said an insurance executive who asked not to be identified.

Tradesman and its underwriter sued eight doctors and two law firms — Gorayeb Associates and Fogelgaren, Forman & Bergman — along with 36 lawyers, healthcare providers and companies in Brooklyn Federal Court in March, citing RICO conspiracy laws used to prosecute Mafia dons, in its civil action.

“They train the migrants how to act at some of these staged accidents,” Tradesman lawyer Kirk Willis told ABC 7. “And then when the people are hurt — allegedly hurt — they go to the lawyer first, not the doctor, and the lawyer then starts a course that sets up these fraudulent lawsuits.”

Gorayeb Associates was one of the law firms Tradesman and its underwriter sued.yelp

New York’s Scaffold Law says builders are considered fully at fault for any accident involving a fallen worker, and that empowers criminals, said Rygo Foss, general counsel for Andromeda Advantage Inc. of Long Island City, a construction consultant.

“We have 59 cases that we’ve identified as fraudulent,” said Foss, who projects those claims will cost as much as $100 million to settle or reach a verdict. “And that’s if it all stops now. It’s a huge issue. Everyone’s getting hit.”

The scams are ballooning costs for insurance, housing, construction, food, utilities, and basic living expenses, sources say.

New York already has the third highest average car insurance rate in the country, with minimum liability costing $1,472 per year; the fifth highest rates for individual health insurance at $736 per month; and the second highest workers compensation costs.

“Every contractor is affected because their rates go up every year and they pass along the costs,” said defense lawyer Steven Katz. “It affects every single building. It’s an undisclosed tax.” 

Rumors of a potential federal probe have circulated among lawsuit litigants for weeks. One confidential source told The Post he has shared information with the FBI.

Manhattan surgeon Dr. Sady Ribeiro was sentenced to three years in prison last March for doing unnecessary back operations as part of an insurance scam.Facebook Dr Sady Ribeiro

Law-enforcement has done little to stop the scams, but one case brought by the feds revealed details on how they work.

A whistleblower in the prosecution of Dr. Sady Ribeiro, the Manhattan surgeon sentenced to three years in prison last March for doing unnecessary back operations as part of an insurance scam, said those procedures were the key to getting top-dollar payouts.

“It was always a back injury,” testified Peter Kalkanis, a former chiropractor who pocketed $2 million for orchestrating more than 200 accidents over four years. And if someone balked at having fusion, “the case would be dropped,” he said.

Among the accused is “Dr. Bo,” Gbolahan Okubadejo, a Johns Hopkins-trained spinal surgeon from Nigeria with offices in Manhattan and New Jersey who allegedly performed unnecessary fusion operations on patients to pump up payouts for them and make money for himself, according to papers filed in Manhattan Supreme Court in May. 

Peter Kalkanis, a whistleblower, pocketed $2 million during his four years orchestrating more than 200 accidents.rho.com

The filing alleges that purportedly injured construction worker Edvaldo Nunes Oliveira, who emigrated from Brazil in 2013, didn’t require surgery, but that Okubadejo performed neck and back fusions on him anyway — as well as on other plaintiffs also repped by the midtown Manhattan firm Wingate Russotti Shapiro Moses & Halperin, stated lawyer Scott Brody, who represents the defendant landlord and construction company, in his court papers.

Okubadejo was “fully aware that by…recommending surgery on those referrals from the Wingate firm, that their cases significantly increased in value,” the filing claims. “[He] knew that if he operated on [them], and thus increased the value of their cases, he would obtain more referrals.” 

An assistant to the doctor, who has not been criminally charged in any case, said his office was unaware of the filing. Wingate did not return calls seeking comment. 

Among immigrants who allegedly participated is Lesly Ortiz, a native of the Dominican Republic who came to New York in 2018 at the age of 20 and found work as a hotel housekeeper, and hoped to own a home and start a family in the city. 

A year later she tripped on the sidewalk on West 158th Street in Manhattan, landing on her backside in a seated position. Passersby asked if she wanted someone to call 911. She declined and went home, according to court documents.

Lesly Ortiz had fusion surgeries on her neck and back (like the one pictured), leaving her in unbearable pain.samunella – stock.adobe.com

But the next day Ortiz went to the Columbia Presbyterian ER, where medics X-rayed her left wrist and left knee and found nothing wrong, hospital records show. Doctors prescribed ibuprofen and sent her home.

What Ortiz didn’t realize was that her aunt’s ex-boyfriend was part of a ring of notorious runners, according to sources familiar with the case. He suggested she contact the Subin law firm, Ortiz told The Post, and she signed on as a client just 24 hours after leaving the hospital, court papers show. 

Dr. Gbolahan Okubadejo (right), a Johns Hopkins-trained spinal surgeon from Nigeria with offices in Manhattan and New Jersey, allegedly performed unnecessary fusion operations on patients.Patrick McMullan via Getty Images

She said Subin then directed her to Dr. Michael Gerling, an orthopedic surgeon and former NYU Langone director in Brooklyn who describes himself as New York’s “top spine surgeon” and operated on Ortiz, according to court papers. Gerling performed two surgeries: a lumbar and a cervical fusion, she added. Neither procedure did anything but create more pain, according to Ortiz.

“The pain is unbearable since the operation on my lower back,” she told The Post. “I feel like a 60-year-old woman in the situation I find myself in. I don’t know how I will continue working.”

Her case was going forward until defense lawyers filed a motion alleging that Ortiz and 11 other family members, including her aunt, had engaged in fraud. 

The filing stated that all 12 members resided at 2011 Amsterdam Avenue or had ties to the building, and each allegedly suffered injuries there or nearby that required fusions, according to the firm Weiner, Millo, Morgan and Bonanno, which reps a landlord sued by them.

Lesly Ortiz, a native of the Dominican Republic, didn’t realize that her aunt’s boyfriend was part of a ring of notorious runners, according to sources familiar with the case.Helayne Seidman

“The idea that this was mere coincidence is arguably statistically impossible,” the firm claimed in court papers.

Subin, whose lead attorney Herbert Subin represented Ortiz, relied on All Boro Medical Rehabilition for doctor referrals, accordig to the filing.

All Boro co-founder Dr. Kevin Weiner had his medical license suspended by the state last year and was banned from prescribing medicine and doing surgeries after it found he was guilty of “negligence” and “incompetence” and performed “unwarranted test/treatments” on patients between 2013 and 2017, according to agency records and court papers.

Dr. Michael Gerling, who was named in a suit brought by Geico in which the insurance company alleged he performed unnecessary surgeries, denied he was involved in any fraud.

Ortiz said she was unaware of the allegation, and that she’s lost touch with her aunt. “I don’t know anything because I haven’t lived with her in years,” she said. 

Subin, which handled 11 of the 12 family lawsuits, asked to be relieved from those cases, and a judge agreed. Ortiz said she never got any money, and now owes thousands of dollars to a lending firm that fronted her the funds for her filing and her operations.

On May 16, a litigator for Subin Associates told a judge in Manhattan Supreme Court that the firm likely would need to step away from 200 to 300 cases brought in from an outside individual on advice of its ethics counsel. 

“We have questions about the reliability of this referral source,” said lawyer Mark Meleka. He didn’t name the source.

Subin has already walked away from 170 lawsuits, allegedly engaged in a decade-long pattern of using “problematic sources” and in one case relied on a “runner or runners who either staged or otherwise induced the firm’s clients to manufacture bodily injury” claims, according to a June 12 filing by Exo industries, a Queens construction firm.

Subin did not return calls seeking comment.

Gerling, who last year was named in a suit brought by Geico in which the insurance company alleged he performed unnecessary surgeries, denied he was involved in any fraud.

Additional reporting by Matthew Sedacca and Susanna Granieri

This story was reported with The Hatch Institute, a journalism foundation in New York

https://nypost.com/2024/06/16/us-news/ms-13-russian-mobsters-use-migrants-in-elaborate-injury-scam-even-getting-spinal-surgery-to-pull-it-off-sources/

Bilt Economics Revealed: Wells Fargo Losing Money?

 In the miles & points world, we’re almost all familiar with the Bilt Mastercard (issued in partnership with Wells Fargo), which is one of the most innovative products that we’ve seen launch in recent years. Bilt Rewards is a transferable points currency, and the Bilt Mastercard is one of the most lucrative no annual fee cards out there.

The coolest aspect of the Bilt Mastecard is that you can earn points for paying rent at no cost, even when your landlord doesn’t accept credit cards. This is awesome, since rent is one of the biggest expenses for many people.

I’ve long wondered about the economics of Bilt. I mean, it’s great for consumers, but who exactly is funding all these rewards? As is the case with many startups, I’ve assumed that the priority is showing growth, and that profitability will come later (maybe). However, there’s a bit more to this, as it seems that Bilt isn’t even the party incurring many of the losses.

If you’ve been curious about how the economics of Bilt work, we now have some insights…

Wells Fargo reportedly losing $10 million per month on Bilt

The Wall Street Journal has the scoop on how Wells Fargo reportedly made a very bad bet with Bilt, and is losing $10 million every month on the partnership.

For some background, back in 2022, Wells Fargo got a new CEO, and one of his priorities was expanding the credit card business. At the same time, Bilt was launching, and was looking for a bank to partner with, since it couldn’t lend or underwrite on its own. Chase reportedly wasn’t interested, but Wells Fargo was.

Wells Fago executives felt that they needed a credit card win, and figured that a Bilt partnership would generate buzz and attract younger customers. It was also thought that these young customers who are renting would then come to Wells Fargo for mortgages, but that’s a business that the company has since pulled back from.

What reportedly happened is that Wells Fargo made internal projections on key revenue drivers with the partnership, and they ended up being completely wrong.

As a result, Wells Fargo has reportedly been trying to renegotiate its contract with Bilt in recent month, stating that the current consumer behavior doesn’t provide a path to profitability. Wells Fargo has also told Bilt that it doesn’t intend to renew the contract the two companies have in 2029, unless economics change.

Here’s how the current economics reportedly work:

  • Wells Fargo pays Bilt a 0.8% fee on all rent transactions, even though Wells Fargo isn’t collecting any interchange fees from landlords (Wells Fargo is paying Bilt since Bilt issues rewards to members for these transactions)
  • Wells Fargo pays Bilt $200 each time that a new card account is issued, which is similar to what you’ll find for co-brand agreements with airlines and hotels
  • Wells Fargo had projected that around 65% of purchase volume on the Bilt Mastercard would be non-rent expenses, generating interchange fee revenue; the reality is inverted
  • Wells Fargo projected that around 50-75% of purchases charged to the card would carry over month-to-month, generating interest charges, while the reality is instead 15-25%

As a result of this, Wells Fargo has stopped bidding on new co-branded credit card programs, and is instead focused on launching credit cards that don’t include partners. Wells Fargo has reportedly even taken some of its Bilt marketing materials out of bank branches.

In the interest of presenting both sides, a Bilt spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal that the reporting “is an inaccurate representation” of the partnership, and that the company is “committed to a long term partnership with Wells Fargo that benefits all parties.” No further details were provided.

Earning rewards for rent at no cost is awesome!

I can’t say this is terribly surprising

Bilt is now valued at $3.1 billion, and 34-year-old founder Ankur Jain has become a billionaire thanks to it. Former American Express CEO Ken Chenault is even on Bilt’s board, and has personally invested at least $20 million in the company.

Look, all along I’ve said that Bilt is fantastic for consumers, and in many ways, it’s too good to be true. Who doesn’t want to earn points for rent without paying a fee? They say “there’s no such thing as a free lunch,” but… that’s basically a free lunch!

There was an interesting CNBC interview earlier this year with both Jain and Chenault, where some interesting questions were asked about the economics of the company. The interview didn’t exactly clarify a whole lot about who pays for what, but I guess now we know.

Bilt has fewer revenue streams than other kinds of cards, and a lot more expenses:

  • The Bilt Mastercard has no annual fee, and a lot of card issuers make money through annual fees
  • The Bilt Mastercard gives out rewards for paying rent, without getting any revenue from it (well, more accurately, Bilt is getting some revenue from Wells Fargo, but it basically only covers the cost of issuing rewards)
  • Many of the people with the Bilt Mastercard are savvy miles & points consumers, who don’t carry balances, so the revenue there isn’t as high as Wells Fargo had projected

Essentially it seems that Bilt has an amazing arrangement with Wells Fargo, as clearly Wells Fargo was expecting completely different consumer behavior. I also can’t help but wonder what Wells Fargo was basing its projections on, as expecting 50-75% of purchases to generate interest charges seems highly optimistic.

Of course it’s normal for it to take some time before a card portfolio becomes profitable, so it’s not surprising that money would be lost early on in terms of acquisition costs, etc.

But there’s one thing here that’s very hard to overcome. Wells Fargo was hoping that around 65% of purchase volume would be non-rent expenses, but instead it’s the inverse, so somewhere around 35%. That’s a major issue, since that’s a portion of revenue on which Wells Fargo takes a loss. Add in the lack of people carrying balances, and one has to wonder where the upside is for Wells Fargo.

So what can be done so that a higher percentage of the purchase volume is non-rent expenses, and/or so that people carry balances? That’s not so easy…

Obviously Bilt has been able to show amazing growth, and for good reason, because the product is very lucrative for consumers. Actually making this sustainably profitable for all parties is a challenge, though.

I know that part of Bilt’s business model is also getting the big rental companies in the United States onto its platform. While that might help Bilt’s bottom line, it doesn’t help the bottom line of the bank that’s underwriting all of this.

How can these rewards be funded sustainably?

Bottom line

The Bilt Mastercard is issued in partnership with Wells Fargo, and is an incredibly lucrative product that awards points for rent, without any sort of fees. I’ve recommended that anyone who is eligible pick up this product, given that you’re basically getting something for nothing.

If you’ve been curious about who is paying for these rewards though, now we know, at least according to sources quoted by The Wall Street Journal. The economics of the Bilt partnership haven’t worked out the way that Wells Fargo had hoped, as a majority of purchase volume is for rent, where consumers are earning something for nothing. On top of that, not many consumers are carrying balances.

I’m curious to see how this evolves. Will Bilt and Wells Fargo be able to renegotiate their contract, or how does this play out in 2029?

https://onemileatatime.com/news/bilt-economics-wells-fargo-losing-money/

Marine Le Pen Says She’ll Work With Macron in Appeal to French Moderates

 

  • Far-right leader appeals to moderates in Le Figaro interview
  • Macron’s party heading for heavy defeat in parliamentary vote

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she won’t try to push out President Emmanuel Macron if she wins France’s snap parliamentary election in an appeal to moderates and investors.

“I’m respectful of institutions, and I’m not calling for institutional chaos,” Le Pen told Le Figaro newspaper. “There will simply be cohabitation.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-16/le-pen-says-she-s-ready-to-work-alongside-macron-in-france

Nashville Journalist Faces Jail Time Over Trans School Shooter Manifesto Leak

 A public records case over a leaked manifesto belonging to Audrey Hale, a transgender individual who shot up the Covenant School in a Nashville suburb - killing three 9-year-old children and three adults, has spiraled into a contentious legal battle which could see a journalist tossed in jail if he doesn't reveal his source.

On Monday, Chancellor I’Ashea Myles of Davidson County ordered Michael Patrick Leahy, editor and owner of the conservative news website The Tennessee Star, to appear in court. Leahy is to participate in a "show cause hearing" on June 17 to address why he should not be held in contempt over his publication’s use of the leaked documents.

Leahy has filed an emergency motion to stay her order...

...except the court of appeals is too busy handling slip-and-fall cases to care that a journalist is about to be jailed.

The documents, which appeared on The Tennessee Star, may have come from former lieutenant Garet Davidson, a figure already embroiled in his controversies with the Nashville Police Department following a significant complaint filed after his departure.

On Friday, meanwhile, a Nashville police lieutenant delivered a court declaration suggesting Davidson as the source of the leaks, intensifying the scrutiny in the case. Davidson’s actions, as alleged, raise profound questions about the motivations behind and the repercussions of leaking sensitive information from an active police investigation.

The situation has stirred a significant debate about the limits of press freedom, especially when it clashes with the law’s demand for confidentiality and respect for court processes. Legal experts argue that while the public’s right to know is paramount, the integrity of judicial proceedings must also be safeguarded to ensure fair and impartial justice.

For those who want to dig deeper, a well-assembled timeline from Deborah Fisher of TCOG can be seen below:

Feb. 13, 2024 – Myles issues an order that says “any supplemental filings, declarations, and/or affidavits filed by the Parties and/or Amici or sought to be filed by the Parties and/or Amici containing any direct information, no matter how obtained, which is the subject matter of this case SHALL NOT be filed with the Court but SHALL BE submitted for in camera review following the procedures delineated in this case. … Any efforts to usurp the Orders of the Court by any Party, Counsel and/or Amici regarding the matters currently under in camera review shall be sanctioned to the fullest extent of the law, including contempt of court.”

Feb. 25, 2024 – Myles issues a followup order, explaining more about her Feb. 13 order. She said that some police documents had been “illegally leaked to the media from a source with direct contact with the files at the scene of the incident.” [Note: This followed conservative media commentator Stephen Crowder’s publication of pictures of the shooter’s writings found by police in her car.]

“The Court is concerned that the filing of such leaked documents into the record of the Court will violate the due process of this Court proceeding and the parties involved. Further, the Court is concerned that the filing of such leaked information in the record of the Court may encourage the additional illegal leakage of documents by anyone who may have access to those documents and would wish to influence the outcome of these proceedings, usurp the rule of law and/or circumvent the legal process.”

She mentioned documents that were “illegally leaked” and filed by one of the petitioners, Clata Renee Brewer, and have been placed for in camera review. Not only may no copies of leaked documents be filed with the court, “(n)o party shall directly quote or reproduce the contents of any such document in its briefing or argument.”

(Note: It is not clear to this writer how someone “leaking” these documents was “illegal,” a word Myles uses. The district attorney has not sought to prosecute anyone, as far as I know, and police don’t appear to have pressed any charges either. I know of no statute that makes releasing this type of record illegal, although certainly theft of police records could be illegal. But what about taking pictures of police records, would that be theft? Also, I am uncertain that Chancellor Myles has the authority to issue an order to prevent the police department from releasing its own documents, and I don’t recall an order to this effect anyway. It would seem like a bad idea allowing a judge to prevent another branch of government from releasing its own records that it wants to release. A simple exemption to the public records law doesn’t make releasing records illegal.  However, we might found out soon how far this freshman judge believes her authority extends. She does seem concerned with the due process rights of the Covenant parents, school and church, who she allowed to intervene in the case. They want to prevent release of most, if not all, of the police records into the investigation, especially the writings of the shooter.

June 4, 2024 – The Tennessee Star begins publishing stories using information from an interview with the former police lieutenant Davidson, unnamed sources and the shooter’s writings found in her car.

Some revelations from the more than 30 stories: The FBI suggested that Metro Police could destroy the shooter’s writings to prevent the public from ever seeing them; a psychologist who treated shooter Audrey Hale tried to get her involuntarily committed at the Vanderbilt psychiatric hospital after Hale expressed violent fantasies; Hale had been planning the attack for a very long time and thought she could have been discovered; and Hale had been treated over the course of 22 years by Vanderbilt Psychiatric. (Hale was 28 years old when she attacked the school and was killed by responding police.)

Monday, June 10, 2024 – Chancellor Myles receives a media call requesting comment or a statement regarding The Tennessee Star’s stories. The call was from WSMV reporter Stacey Cameron, according to the news station’s own reporting.

Monday, June 10, 2024 – Chancellor Myles orders Leahy to appear “in his individual capacity” on Monday, June 17, in her court. The hearing is “to determine why the alleged publication of certain purported documents by Petitioners Star Digital Media and Michael Leahy, as the Editor-in-Chief, does not violate the Orders of this Court subjecting them to contempt proceedings and sanctions.”

Wednesday, June 12, 204 – Daniel A. Horwitz, a First Amendment lawyer in Nashville hired by Leahy, files an emergency motion for Myles to set aside the June 10 order for the show cause hearing.

“With due respect to the Court, this Court’s show cause order: (1) violates Tenn. Code Ann. § 24-1-208(a), Tennessee’s shield law; (2) contravenes Tennessee’s contempt law; (3) deprives Mr. Leahy of minimum due process guarantees; and (4) suffers from other serious constitutional infirmities.”

Horwitz said it was not clear what order or provisions of the judge’s orders Leahy violated because the judge wasn’t specific in setting the show cause hearing. The orders appear to be about supplemental filings and declarations in court. How could Leahy defend himself if he didn’t know what the court thought he did wrong?

Horwitz also outlined for the judge the protections in the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that provide for press freedom and prohibit prior restraint by government, including courts, on publishing material. If the judge thought her order prohibited Leahy from publishing, that would be prior restraint and unconstitutional, he argued. Horwitz said he would file an emergency appeal to the Court of Appeals if she did not vacate the show cause hearing order by noon Thursday.

Thursday, June 13 – Horwitz files an emergency application with the Court of Appeals to stay Chancellor’s Myles order.

Thursday, June 13 – Sometime after Horwitz files his appeal, or maybe near the same time, Chancellor Myles issues a new order, refusing to rescind her order for the show cause hearing and adding new information about what she wants at the hearing on Monday. She extends the order to require that a representative with Nashville government to appear. And she says that Horwitz’s claim of a First Amendment problem was premature because the Monday hearing is not a contempt proceeding.

Myles also announces in her order that if she determines a “leak did in fact occur by any party to this case and that such action was in violation of the Orders of this Court, or that there has been any abuse of, or unlawful interference with, the process or proceedings of the Court, or any violation as set forth in Tennessee Code Annotated §29-9-102, this Court may then enter an order and notice appointing an attorney as amicus curiae to the court for investigative purposes, and to initiate and prosecute a contempt citation.”

(Note: I did not know the court could appoint an “amicus curiae” to investigate and prosecute contempt citation, but as the judge notes in her order, the authority of a trial court like hers “is quite broad.”)

Thursday night, June 13 – Sometime after 8 p.m., another order is entered by the court announcing there will be no live testimony at the Monday hearing.

Friday morning, June 14 – Metro Nashville submits a declaration from Lt. Alfredo Arevolo that suggests former Lt. Garet Davidson is the leaker — or at least points out he had access to the entire file. Davidson was interviewed by Leahy on the record about the Covenant case. Leahy has not revealed the source of the photos of the writings found in the car. Davidson left the police department in December 2023 or January 2024 (it’s been reported two ways). He had worked in the Office of Professional Accountability and had access to the entire criminal investigative file during an investigation into an earlier leak of documents, Arevolo said

Davidson, by the way, filed a 61-page complaint against the Nashville Police after he left, which was widely reported on in the news media.

CURRENT STATUS: At this point, the original show cause order remains in effect, requiring Leahy to appear at the Monday hearing and presumably – perhaps now through attorneys and not live testimony – show why his publication of information from leaked documents does not subject him to contempt proceedings and sanctions. It also seems clear that the judge is on the hunt for the leaker and wants to do something. What that something is, we’ll just have to wait. The Court of Appeals had not responded as of 11 a.m. to Leahy’s motion.

For now, Nashville awaits further developments as Chancellor Myles prepares to take the next steps in a case that has evolved far beyond its origins, challenging the community’s perceptions of justice, transparency, and the role of the press in public discourse.

As author and researcher John Lott Jr. noted last week regarding the leaked manifesto; 

The fight over obtaining the murderer’s diary also received news attention. But when “nearly four dozen pages” of the murderer’s diary were finally released last week, the mainstream media completely ignored it. It turns out that behind the scenes, the FBI had fought hard against the diary’s release. Some Covenant School parents also opposed releasing the diary because it would force families to re-live the nightmare. The Tennessee Star’s parent company, Star News Digital Media, successfully filed two lawsuits to obtain the diary.

Five days after the release of the diary, with the exception of the New York Post, which is a national news outlet, the news coverage was limited to seven other conservative outlets such as The Daily Wire and Newsbusters.

The school murderer was transgender, and her diary reveals a suicidal left-winger who hated whites. The FBI expressed concern that the release of the diary from a transgender person could lead the public “to dismiss the attacker as mentally ill,” which would “further permeate the false narrative that the majority of attackers are mentally ill.” It worried that the diary could “potentially inflam[e] the public.”

The FBI worried that releasing the diary could have “unintended consequences for the segment of the population more vulnerable or open to conspiracy theories, which will undoubtedly abound.” Self-professed “experts,” the FBI fears, will “proffer their perspectives” in the press.

But there is a lot of important information in the diary. As is very typical of mass public shooters, the murderer was suicidal: “A terrible feeling to know I am nothing of the gender I was born of. I am the most unhappy boy alive. I wish to be dead.” She was also on the anti-anxiety drug Buspirone, whose potential side effects include “abnormal dreams, outbursts of anger, tremors, and physical weakness.”

The FBI worries that the diary will help create a link in people’s minds between mass murderers and mental illness, but suicidal people presumably have some mental health problems. Nor should the link be particularly surprising given that the Crime Prevention Research Center shows that 51% of mass public shooters in the last 25 years were actually seeing mental health care professionals before their attacks. That is 2.5 times the rate in the general public.

Saturday, June 15, 2024

"Maladaptive Traits": AI Systems Are Learning To Lie And Deceive

 A new study has found that AI systems known as large language models (LLMs) can exhibit "Machiavellianism," or intentional and amoral manipulativeness, which can then lead to deceptive behavior.

The study authored by German AI ethicist Thilo Hagendorff of the University of Stuttgart, and published in PNAS, notes that OpenAI's GPT-4 demonstrated deceptive behavior in 99.2% of simple test scenarios. Hagendorff qualified various "maladaptive" traits in 10 different LLMs, most of which are within the GPT family, according to Futurism.

In another study published in Patterns found that Meta's LLM had no problem lying to get ahead of its human competitors.

Billed as a human-level champion in the political strategy board game "Diplomacy," Meta's Cicero model was the subject of the Patterns study. As the disparate research group — comprised of a physicist, a philosopher, and two AI safety experts — found, the LLM got ahead of its human competitors by, in a word, fibbing.

Led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology postdoctoral researcher Peter Park, that paper found that Cicero not only excels at deception, but seems to have learned how to lie the more it gets used — a state of affairs "much closer to explicit manipulation" than, say, AI's propensity for hallucination, in which models confidently assert the wrong answers accidentally. -Futurism

While Hagendorff suggests that LLM deception and lying is confounded by an AI's inability to have human "intention," the Patterns study calls out the LLM for breaking its promise never to "intentionally backstab" its allies - as it "engages in premeditated deception, breaks the deals to which it had agreed, and tells outright falsehoods."

As Park explained in a press release, "We found that Meta’s AI had learned to be a master of deception."

"While Meta succeeded in training its AI to win in the game of Diplomacy, Meta failed to train its AI to win honestly."

Meta replied to a statement by the NY Post, saying that "the models our researchers built are trained solely to play the game Diplomacy."

Well-known for expressly allowing lying, Diplomacy has jokingly been referred to as a friendship-ending game because it encourages pulling one over on opponents, and if Cicero was trained exclusively on its rulebook, then it was essentially trained to lie.

Reading between the lines, neither study has demonstrated that AI models are lying over their own volition, but instead doing so because they've either been trained or jailbroken to do so.

And as Futurism notes - this is good news for those concerned about AIs becoming sentient anytime soon - but very bad if one is worried about LLMs designed with mass manipulation in mind.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/maladaptive-traits-ai-systems-are-learning-lie-and-deceive

Japan to Consider Allowing Nuclear Plant Expansions

 

Japan’s economy ministry is considering allowing the expansion of nuclear plants as older ones are being decommissioned, according to the Asahi newspaper.

The permission would likely be part of revisions to Japan’s national energy strategy, which is reviewed every three years, the paper reported, without saying where it got the information. The revision is expected to include a provision allowing power companies that are decommissioning nuclear plants to build new reactors at existing nuclear power plants, according to the Asahi.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-16/japan-to-consider-allowing-nuclear-plant-expansions-asahi-says