'Iran losing leverage in Hormuz as US blockade bites - CNN'

 

Iran is increasingly losing the leverage it gained from disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as a renewed US blockade and efforts to secure commercial traffic put greater economic pressure on Tehran, former senior US official Brett McGurk wrote in a CNN analysis published Sunday.

McGurk, who served in senior national security roles under four US presidents, argued that the six-month conflict had entered a “fourth act” after renewed Iranian attacks on commercial shipping prompted another round of military exchanges.

Since mid-July, Washington has reimposed a military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions on Iran’s oil trade while US forces have worked to clear shipping lanes and protect commercial vessels in the strait, McGurk wrote. He cited Bloomberg reporting that oil flows through Hormuz had recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

“If Iran loses its ability to hold the Strait hostage, its leverage dissipates rapidly,” McGurk wrote, arguing that pressure was now compounding on Tehran rather than Washington.

He cited International Monetary Fund projections showing Iran’s economy contracting by more than 5% this year with inflation approaching 70%, while the rial has fallen sharply and prices of basic goods have risen. An Iranian Labor Ministry official recently estimated that more than one million jobs disappeared during the first three months of the war, he added.

McGurk said Iran could still escalate by again targeting shipping, energy infrastructure in neighboring states or using the Houthis to threaten Red Sea commerce, but argued that such tactics had so far failed to force Washington to back down.

He cautioned, however, that the outcome remained uncertain, writing that while Iran had assumed it could outlast US pressure, “it’s too early to call.”

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608308547