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Saturday, June 1, 2024

Biggest threat of bird flu is government disinformation

 A new strain of bird flu is spreading rapidly.

It began in Asia in 2020, arrived in Canada in 2021 and reached the US a year later, killing tens of millions of birds and tens of thousands of sea mammals.

So far, bird flu — whose human mortality rate is being touted as 50% — has only been transmitted from animals to people.

But with bird flu DNA detectable in 20% of all milk sold in the United States, if a mutation occurs, human-to-human transmission could be possible. 

Bird flu is hardly the only threat to world health right now.

Monkeypox is back, raging across the Democratic Republic of Congo featuring a strain far deadlier than the one that broke out in 2022. 

Millions of birds have been culled during the bird flu crisis, which began in Asia and has now reached the US.Getty Images

While health authorities may be alarmed about these viruses, Americans ought to be alarmed about our health authorities.

Because if public health officials treat these outbreaks like they did the last, the response to any new pandemic could be worse than the virus itself.

The problem begins with our authorities’ penchant for distorting risk.

During the 2009 swine flu pandemic, for instance, health officials predicted as many as 120 million people would die.

Governments stockpiled vaccines. But just as soon as the pandemic began, it ended.

Vaccines expired.

The death count was that of mild seasonal influenza.

By the time Covid struck a decade later, things had only gotten worse.

Media bombarded America with images of devastation.

The doomsy distortions had their desired effect: By March 2020, the University of Southern California Understanding Coronavirus in America tracking survey showed that average Americans believed the risk of death from COVID-19 was 25% – on par with the Ebola virus.

Donald Trump was lambasted when he tried to offer a more nuanced view of the COVID threat.YUKI IWAMURA/POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Never mind that just a month earlier, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci and CDC Director Robert Redfield wrote that COVID’s real mortality figure was less than 1%.

Yet when then-President Donald Trump tried correcting the record — “a fraction of 1%,” he declared in a March 2020 interview — he was accused of “spreading misinformation.”

Months later, Americans still believed COVID’s death rate was 20%; Fauci’s response: the nation needs “to be more afraid.”

The lockdowns and school closures soon followed, sold as something every country must do.

But not everyone agreed: In March 2020, nearly 1,000 experts — including future CDC Director Rochelle Walensky — warned in an open letter to Mike Pence about the uncertain benefits of lockdowns. 

Health officials downplayed the unique risks Monkeypox posed for Gay men in order to avoid “stigma.” The result: Cases kept on piling up.Getty Images/iStockphoto

Things only worsened when vaccines arrived the following year, touted by CDC Director Walensky to completely block virus transmission and “end the pandemic” — despite clear evidence to the contrary.  Adverse events from the vaccine were ignored; masks that science knew were useless became obligatory.

The consequences were harrowing.

Lockdowns likely caused millions of deaths and created massive economic disruption. School closures set back child development. Vaccine mandates and misinformation increased vaccine hesitancy and destroyed trust in public health.

The brief monkeypox pandemic of 2022 fit a similar pattern. Gay and bisexual men accounted for 96% of all cases, yet health officials maintained “anyone can get monkeypox” in order to reduce potential stigma. In the end, the CDC prioritized feelings over disease prevention — and the cases piled upwards. 

Moderna’s stock price recently surged thanks to efforts by the pharma giant to develop an effective bird flu vaccine.REUTERS

During COVID-19 and monkeypox, policy was created first–and then the data was distorted to justify it.

Prominent scientists who questioned this approach were condemned and punished, while tech giants censored dissenting opinions, according to a recent House of Representatives report. 

We already see the media following the same script with bird flu.

Fewer than 1% of infected cattle die from the disease; and the real risk of death in humans is almost certainly far lower than that grim 50% figure, according to scientific experts.

The CDC, too, continues its bizarre behavior.

Earlier this month, they recommended N95s masks and goggles for dairy workers. Yet N95s are ineffective for seasonal influenza, which is identical in viral structure to bird flu.

Professor Michael Osterholm of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, points out that goggles readily fog, increasing risk of worker injury. 

Dr. Anthony Fauci has talked about the horrid side effects of Covid-19.Getty Images for Haddad Media

As for vaccines, the Department of Health and Human services recently assured journalists that stockpiles of vaccines for bird flu are ready to deploy.

However, the scant clinical testing that has been conducted was on an outdated 2020 version of the vaccine.

Making the establishment scientific again starts with accountability. Some progress has been made: top NIH officials have faced bipartisan criticism and disciplinary action over COVID-19’s origins.

But otherwise, pandemic response leaders continue receiving plauditspensions, and prestigious new jobs. The Biden DOJ also continues to block criminal investigations into COVID mismanagement. 

But change cannot come fast enough to combat bird flu, both the disease and the accompanying misinformation.

Bird Flu in America: Assessing the Threat of a New Outbreak
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Earlier this month, the CDC detected elevated levels of influenza A, of which bird flu is a subtype, in US wastewater.

What was not reported was that these levels were, on average, still lower than normal. 

Misrepresented data just to get a story — sound familiar? 

Meanwhile, just last week a second case of dairy-linked bird flu was reported in Michigan. Also reported: rapid progress to develop an mRNA bird flu vaccine.

In anticipation of the potential financial windfall, the stock price of mRNA vaccine pioneer Moderna has exploded by 50% in May alone. Once again — sound familiar?

https://nypost.com/2024/06/01/opinion/the-biggest-threat-with-bird-flu-is-government-disinformation/

Trump to attend UFC fight days after ‘hush money’ guilty verdict as he shifts focus to campaign

 Donald Trump is wasting no time fighting to get back to the White House.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee, 77, is expected to attend a UFC fight Saturday night at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ — two days after the shocking guilty verdict in his Manhattan “hush money” trial, according to the Wall Street Journal.

It will be his first public appearance since he vowed that “we’re going to fight” during a fiery press conference in the atrium of Trump Tower in Midtown Manhattan Friday.

donald trump
Convicted felon, Donald Trump, is expected to attend a UFC fight just two days after the historic verdict against him.The Washington Post via Getty Images

The UFC 302 mixed-martial arts fight card will feature 12 matches headlined by top-ranked lightweight champion Islam Makhachev duking it out against fourth-ranked Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. 

The ex-president is tight with UFC President Dana White, who told Deadline in February the two have been friends for 20 years.

“The guy is a fight fan,” he said. He’s been a fight fan.”

In March, the former president sat cageside with eldest daughter, Ivanka, at UFC 299 in Florida.

A Manhattan jury convicted Trump of 34 criminal charges of falsifying business records in a scheme to influence the 2016 presidential election.

Trump has vowed to appeal, saying he’s “honored” by the legal battle and that “we’re fighting for our Constitution.”

Prudential Center
The fight will take place at the Prudential Center in New Jersey.Getty Images

The charges were related to a $130,000 “hush money” payment his former “fixer” lawyer Michael Cohen made to porn star Stormy Daniels to silence her about an alleged one-night stand with Trump.

His fundraising has exploded since the verdict, with the Trump campaign boasting it raised nearly $53 million online in 24 hours.

He’s expected to continue his fundraising blitz next week with a series of stops through California, including Thursday in San Francisco for a fundraising dinner hosted by tech investors David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya, according to Fox News.

https://nypost.com/2024/06/01/us-news/trump-to-hit-ufc-302-mere-days-after-hush-money-guilty-verdict/

'House Dem wants Gov. Hochul to pardon Trump ‘for the good of the country’'

 A Democratic congressman has publicly called on Gov. Hochul to pardon former President Donald Trump after he was found guilty this week of falsifying business records — for the sake of the nation.

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) said a Trump conviction only helps his campaign.

“Donald Trump is a serial liar, cheater, and philanderer, a six-time declarer of corporate bankruptcy, an instigator of insurrection, and a convicted felon who thrives on portraying himself as a victim. @GovKathyHochul should pardon him for the good of the country,” Phillips declared in a X post Friday.

Insiders say a pardon from Gov. Hochul is “unlikely.”Getty Images for Robin Hood
Rep. Dean Phillips said Trump’s conviction will help his campaign.Aristide Economopoulos

“You think pardoning is stupid? Making him a martyr over a payment to a porn star is stupid. (Election charges are entirely different.) It’s energizing his base, generating record sums of campaign cash, and will likely result in an electoral boost,” Phillips warned.

Phillips, a three term gadfly, earned national attention this year after launching a primary challenge against President Biden for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.

A businessman before entering government, Phillips dropped at least $5 million of his own cash on the long-shot effort, which he abandoned in March.

Former President Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records on Thursday.The Washington Post via Getty Images

He endorsed Biden after garnering no meaningful support in the primaries.

A person close to Hochul said a pardon was “unlikely.” 

“I cannot image a world where she would consider doing this, this makes no sense,” said the insider.

https://nypost.com/2024/06/01/us-news/house-dem-wants-pardon-for-trump-for-the-good-of-the-country/

Soaring US Trade Deficit Smacks the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast

 Two Atlanta Fed GDPNow measures took a 0.8 percentage point dive on May 31. Let’s go over why.

Please consider the May 31, 2024 GDPnow Forecast for second quarter GDP.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on May 31, down from 3.5 percent on May 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 2.6 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 5.1 percent to 6.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.60 percentage points.

The important number in the above chart is the Real Final Sales forecast.

The difference between the base forecast and RFS is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.

RFS is the bottom lines estimate of the economy.

“This Rates to Smack GDPNow”

Sommers made a reference the trade deficit which increased by 7.7 percent in April. I looked up the numbers. The trade data wasn’t “fairly awful” it was downright awful.

Advance Indicators

I took one look at the numbers and stated “This Rates to Smack GDPNow”.

My statement may seem obvious, but it’s not. The report itself is irrelevant. What matters is what the report does vs what the model predicted it would.

Sometimes bad data causes the GDPnow forecast to rise. I made my call based on a spot assessment that that the model would not have expected such an awful number.

Weakening Data All Over the Place

Data is weakening left and right. I believe we are headed for recession this year, but we are not there yet.

For discussion, please see Philadelphia Fed GDPplus Revised Significantly Lower, But No Recession Yet

https://mishtalk.com/economics/soaring-us-trade-deficit-smacks-the-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-forecast/

Netanyahu Quickly Slams Door On Biden's Major Gaza Ceasefire Plan

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed the door shut on President Biden's new appeal urging both Israel and Hamas to accept the new ceasefire plan set before both sides. As we detailed earlier, Biden's Friday afternoon speech was mostly about pressuring Israel to end the war. The message was clear at a moment the Democratic president faces dissent and pushback from his base headed into a tight November election: "I urge Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes," he emphasized.

But coming a mere hours later, Netanyahu has made it clear there will be no permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas is completely eradicated. He went so far as to say the current deal being pushed hard by the White House is a "non-starter".