Brazil Elections: Right-Wing Bolsonaro Takes Early Lead Over Socialist Lula As Vote Count Begins

 Summary: 

• Right-Wing Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula
• Polling closed at 4 pm local time 
• Brazil Votes In Tight Presidential Election With South America's Future On The Line

Right-Wing Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula 

Polls closed at 4 p.m. Brazil time, and the latest figures from the Superior Electoral Court show right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 50.2% to 41.3%, with just 4.3% of votes counted in Brazil's first-round presidential election Sunday.

The preliminary results offer only a limited indication of the final outcome, with most votes still to be counted.

These preliminary results sent Bolsonaro's Polymarket odds soaring from 64% around 4 p.m. New York time to 77% around 4:43 p.m. Lula's odds on the betting platform cratered to just 23%.

Brazil Votes In Tight Presidential Election With South America's Future On The Line

Brazilians began voting earlier this morning in a statistically tied presidential election, with incumbent socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Election results are expected later this evening, and the race is likely headed for a runoff later this month.

Lula and Bolsonaro are effectively deadlocked in a potential runoff. The latest AtlasIntel poll puts Lula at 47.6% against Bolsonaro's 47.4%, while Datafolha showed the incumbent ahead 47% to 46%. Quaest has Bolsonaro at 44% against Lula's 42%, within its two-point margin of error.

However, Polymarket bettors see a clearer favorite, giving Bolsonaro a 63.3% chance of winning versus 37% for Lula as of early Sunday morning.

Polls close nationwide at 5 p.m. Brazil time, or 4 p.m. in New York. Brazil's electronic voting system allows counting to begin immediately, with the electoral court expected to deliver a definitive result between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Brazil time.

The race will determine whether Brazil continues down its destructive socialist path or cements what could be a once-in-a-generation political shift across South America, with the continent's largest economy potentially moving to the right. Recent elections in Colombia, Peru, Chile and other countries have shifted from left-wing regimes to right-wing governments.

We outlined on Friday the potential market impacts and expected volatility following the first-round results:

• Brazil Braces For Election Volatility As Bolsonaro Gains On Lula, Bullish Options Bets Explode

One notable chart shows that the Brazilian real's one-week implied volatility has jumped above 31%, its highest level since late 2022. That exceeds the one-month measure, which captures both voting rounds but remains below 25%, highlighting the extreme concentration of risk ahead of Sunday's vote.

"We expect the biggest surprise to come in the first round, with Flávio likely to finish ahead of Lula," Fabricio Taschetto, CIO at Ace Capital, wrote in a note. He added that the market reaction could exceed the move already priced into options.

Citigroup and JPMorgan analysts have told clients to use options that would benefit from a stronger real, while Brazilian hedge funds, including Ibiuna and Verde, have told clients they have positioned themselves with options for a potential stock rally.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-votes-tight-presidential-election-south-americas-future-line

Iran accuses UK of complicity in attacks by allowing use of military bases

 

Iran accused Britain of complicity in military attacks against the country by allowing its bases to be used by US and Israeli forces, the foreign ministry spokesman said on Sunday.

“The British government’s direct complicity in providing military bases to the American-Zionist front, which has also been proven by the NATO secretary-general’s explicit acknowledgment, constitutes a clear crime and a grave violation of international law,” Esmaeil Baghaei said.

Baghaei said the British ambassador was summoned on Thursday and given a formal protest. He described British officials’ accusations against Iran as an attempt to deflect responsibility, saying Britain would be held accountable for its alleged role in the war.

He dismissed London’s accusations against Iran as false, saying they could not obscure what Tehran described as Britain’s hostile actions and direct participation in aggression against the Iranian people.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610042786

'Reports of 40,000 Pakistani troops bound for Saudi Arabia hopefully false, Iran says'

 

Iran hopes reports that 40,000 Pakistani troops have been sent to Saudi Arabia are false, the foreign ministry spokesman said on Sunday.

“Both we and the countries of the region know that any action in Yemen will make the situation more complicated,” Esmaeil Baghaei said.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610045193

'Islamic Republic considering Russia’s offer to take 60%-enriched uranium, Baghaei says'

 

Iran is considering a Russian offer to take custody of its uranium enriched to 60%, but will make a final decision based on its national interests, the foreign ministry spokesman said on Sunday.

Esmaeil Baghaei said Moscow had previously proposed ways to reduce tensions and that Iran was willing to hear its suggestions.

He added that Iran regularly consults with Russia on nuclear issues and coordinates with Moscow and Beijing if new developments arise.

He described relations between Tehran and Moscow as good, saying the two countries also maintain regular coordination through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610044084

'Iran MP says US must yield to diplomacy or face missiles'

 

The United States must either yield to Iran’s diplomats or face its missiles, while Tehran has no intention of offering another option or backing away from its conditions, parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member Ebrahim Rezaei said Sunday.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610045843

10-Year Cost Of Democratic Socialist Policies Could Hit $350,000 Per Household, White House Says

 by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

American taxpayers would face a net fiscal burden of over $350,000 per household in the next decade if the Democratic Socialists of America's top policies were adopted, according to a report released Oct. 1 by President Donald Trump's Council of Economic Advisers.

The report predicted a net fiscal burden of more than $49 trillion from 2027 to 2036 - larger than the national debt, which hit a milestone of $40 trillion in August.

The report added up the presumed costs for Democratic Socialists of America's agenda items such as loosening border restrictions, handing out amnesty to all illegal immigrants in the country, abolishing the police and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, eliminating prisons, providing government-run healthcare for everyone, and canceling all student debt.

The majority of the cost would come from Medicare for All, which is predicted to cost $47.4 trillion out of the $52.8 trillion in gross costs, which was lowered to nearly $49 trillion due to the estimated $3.9 trillion that would be collected from the wealth tax.

Medicare for All proposals would transform the United States into a single-payer healthcare system in which the federal government covers all medical services, eliminating the out-of-pocket costs for patients.

The second most expensive proposal, according to the report, would be canceling student debt and making college free. That comes at a price tag of $3.6 trillion.

Student Loan Debt Statistics by the Education Data Initiative suggest that Americans currently owe roughly $1.9 trillion in student debt. Nearly $1.7 trillion of that debt is held by the federal government and is owed by nearly 43 million loan recipients.

The third-largest spending item would come from a mandated 32-hour workweek, costing approximately $918 billion in lost tax revenue.

The Trump administration described the proposals' potential impact on the economy, suggesting they would make everyday costs skyrocket with double-digit inflation and prices rising an extra 130 to 160 percent over 10 years.

The Epoch Times contacted the Democratic Socialists of America for comment and did not hear back by publication.

The report came out the same day Trump kicked off his 32-day campaign blitz for Republicans facing tough races in the November midterms.

During a speech at Peterbilt Motors' factory in Denton, Texas, on Thursday, Trump highlighted the resurgence of manufacturing in the United States and touted the economy's performance under his administration.

"We announce all these great numbers," Trump said. "The best numbers in the history of any president. There's never been any president that's got $21 trillion invested in our country. Not even close."

The president also showed his support for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, who is in a tight U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.

After the speech, Trump made a rare presidential visit to the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma for a rally. Only a handful of U.S. presidents have visited tribal nations while in office.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/10-year-cost-democratic-socialist-policies-could-hit-350000-household-white-house-says

Zelensky Vows To Hammer More Russian Refineries As G7 Greenlights Emergency Fuel Dump

 President Volodymyr Zelensky told Reuters in an exclusive interview that Ukraine plans to intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries in response to continued strikes on Ukrainian cities. The threat comes as the Trump administration pressures European allies to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a global refining crunch already straining fuel supplies.

Zelensky told the outlet that Ukrainian intelligence had obtained documents outlining what he described as Russian President Vladimir Putin's new war doctrine to broaden attacks on civilian infrastructure ahead of winter.

"We saw documents and we know that they allow them to attack infrastructure, logistics, and especially to attack in the cities, in the villages, everywhere, roads, schools, hospitals," Zelensky said. "To pressure people to leave the capital, leave different cities: this is the goal of the operation."

Zelensky then said, "We have to respond in any way (we can). With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy. First of all, oil refiners, etc.: what gives money to them for this war. But we will not respond, of course, just like them, on any civilian objects."

Zelensky's plan to further destroy Russia's refineries comes as the Trump administration seeks to revive peace negotiations. Zelensky said Russia had shown no willingness to discuss either peace talks or a ceasefire covering energy infrastructure.

The Trump administration's move to pressure European countries and other G7 members into releasing as much as 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks, as confirmed by French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday, is likely in response to Zelensky's expanding drone and missile attacks on Russian energy assets, as stockpiles for critical fuels are well below seasonal levels for this time of year. 

The International Energy Agency is coordinating the emergency release, which will take place over the next four months, according to Macron.

Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari warned last month that the global refining crisis stems from a combination of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and, more importantly, Ukraine's bombardment of Russian refineries. Those attacks have prompted Moscow to extend its diesel export halt, suggesting the refining crisis could linger well into next year and keep refined-product prices elevated. 

Meanwhile, last Thursday at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow, Putin warned the Western allies to cease their escalation in Ukraine, stressing he's willing to use "all weapons" in the Russian arsenal in the scenario that Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad comes under attack.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-vows-hammer-more-russian-refineries-g7-greenlights-emergency-fuel-dump