Natera misses, CEO stepping down

 

Natera raises 2026 guidance and targets $6B 2029 revenue as MRD growth drives strong Q3 momentum

• Q3 revenue $794M, +34% YoY; >40% growth excluding reimbursement true-ups, beating analyst revenue estimates.
• Adjusted Q3 loss was $0.39 per share, missing forecasts despite strong revenue growth and margin expansion.
• Processed ~1.1M tests; clinical MRD units 316k, +56% YoY, with strong sequential acceleration.
• Gross margin 65%; 63.2% excluding true-ups, up 140 bps QoQ from organic efficiencies and ASP improvement.
• Signatera ASP $1,290, up from $1,271; long-term target ≥$2,000 as coverage expands.
• Natera reported Signatera-based ctDNA clearance during first-line immunotherapy links to long-term survival across four metastatic cancers.
• Raised 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by ~$140M to low-to-mid $3B range, now $3.01–$3.04B.
• Management targets $6B revenue and profitability by 2029, largely from oncology and pharma/data growth.
• Early cancer detection FIND trial fully enrolled; MCED assay received FDA breakthrough device designation.
• Heavy ongoing OpEx for MRD and screening trials; 2027 operating expenses expected up 10–12%.
• CEO Chapman stepping down, shifting to consultant and board advisor, effective immediately; longtime executive Moshkevich becomes CEO, continuity but risk.
• Main concern: Execution and reimbursement risk amid aggressive investment, new products, and a CEO transition.
• Strong quarter, driven by accelerating MRD adoption, improving ASPs and margins, and expanding pharma/data demand.

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