About a month after JPMorgan analysts toured Tesla's Fremont factory and confirmed a "targeted four-month transition following the end of S/X production in May" to humanoid production lines, a new report on Friday says that Tesla engineers arrived in China to inspect robotics component suppliers, as Elon Musk appears to be moving closer and closer toward the commercialization of humanoid robots.
Bloomberg first reported this development as Tesla engineers arrived in Ningbo, a major port and manufacturing city in Zhejiang province on China's eastern coast, just south of Shanghai. The engineers inspected parts and component factories for the humanoid robot called "Optimus."
"Tesla's reported supplier audits are a positive commercialization signal for China's humanoid supply chain, pointing to progress toward repeatable Optimus production," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma wrote in a note, adding, "Near-term sentiment could stay supported if audits lead to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders."
Tesla is reportedly targeting the second half of 2027 for commercial sales of Optimus. Production is likely to begin much earlier, as JPM analyst Rajat Gupta said the "Optimus Academy" will be operating later this year, with robots collecting real-world training data before being deployed in factories.
News of this development sent the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index slightly higher on Friday, up about 1.4%, amid a tumultuous year that has left it down about 30%.
The market's appetite for physical AI, specifically humanoids, was hyped in mid-August by China's blockbuster Unitree IPO, but the momentum failed to follow through.
Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee recently pointed out that the adoption curve for humanoids will be much steeper than that of automobiles over a century ago.
Goldman analysts last month raised their global humanoid robot delivery base case to 75,000 shipments in 2026, 890,000 in 2030, and 6.5 million in 2035, versus previous estimates of 51,000, 256,000, and 1.4 million, respectively.
The invasion of physical AI is just around the corner.
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